The article discusses Singapore’s newly formed Economic Resilience Task Force, created in response to the 10% tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. The author, Lin Suling, defends the task force’s early formation against critics who question its timing and necessity.

https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/why-the-hurry-what-singapores-new-tariff-taskforce-is-really-about

Key Points

Task Force Structure and Purpose

• Led by Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong
• Three focus areas:
  1. Sense-making and communications (led by Minister Josephine Teo)
  2. Short-term support for businesses and workers (led by Minister Tan See Leng and NTUC chief Ng Chee Meng)
  3. Long-term strategising (led by Ministers Desmond Lee and Chee Hong Tat

Context and Reasoning

• The article argues that despite the seemingly modest 10% tariff, Singapore faces “radical uncertainty” in the global trade environment.
• Trump’s tariff policies are characterised as unpredictable and volatile (“peek-a-boo” approach)
• The author uses an aviation metaphor, comparing selling to the US market as “flying a plane through turbulence”

Three Main Lessons Presented

1. “Visibility is survival” – The importance of information gathering and sharing in an uncertain environment.
2. “Countries ready to back businesses could emerge stronger” – The need for government support and intervention.
3. Singapore must chart a new economic course, focusing on long-term restructuring and identifying new avenues for growth.

Response to Critics

Response to Critics

Argues that it demonstrates proper prioritisation given the significant economic risks Singapore faces

The author counters accusations that the task force is political theatre ahead of elections.

The article makes a strong case for proactive government intervention by:

• Drawing parallels to successful crisis management during COVID-19
• Pointing to similar economic defence measures by other countries (South Korea, Germany, Portugal, Spain)
• Emphasising Singapore’s vulnerability as an open economy

The aviation metaphor effectively communicates both the dangers (turbulence) and the need for instruments (information), as well as preparation (seatbelts and support measures), and navigation (a long-term strategy).

Underlying Narrative

The article frames Singapore’s approach as pragmatic and necessary in a world of increasing economic nationalism and trade uncertainty. It presents the task force as part of Singapore’s tradition of methodical planning and state-led economic direction, suggesting that this approach gives Singapore a competitive advantage in navigating global economic disruption.

The author notably shifts the debate from “whether” intervention is needed to “how” it should be implemented, presenting the task force as a logical extension of Singapore’s existing economic governance model.

ASEAN’s Potential Solutions to US-China Trade War Supply Chain Disruptions

ASEAN has several strategic options to address the supply chain challenges created by the US-China trade tensions. As a regional bloc representing a market of over 650 million people with significant manufacturing capabilities, ASEAN possesses collective leverage that individual member states lack.

Regional Integration Solutions

Deepening Intra-ASEAN Trade

1. Accelerating ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Implementation
   • Expedite remaining tariff reductions within ASEAN
   • Address non-tariff barriers that still impede intra-regional trade
   • Harmonise standards and certification processes to reduce compliance costs
2. Regional Cumulation of Origin
   • Expand rules allowing components from multiple ASEAN countries to qualify as “ASEAN origin”
   • Create a unified origin certification system for exports to third countries.
   • Develop digital traceability platforms specific to ASEAN manufacturing networks.

Strengthening Regional Trade Agreements

1. Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)
   • Leverage RCEP (which includes ASEAN, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand) to create alternative supply chains less dependent on US markets
   • Develop implementation mechanisms that simplify compliance for SMEs
   • Expand product coverage for preferential treatment
2. Strategic Free Trade Agreement Expansion
   • Pursue bloc-wide agreements rather than bilateral deals that could fragment regional integration
   • Explore new agreements with emerging markets in South Asia, Middle East, and Africa to diversify export destinations

Collective Diplomatic Approaches

Unified Negotiation Stance

1. ASEAN Joint Position on Trade
   • Develop common positions on issues like digital trade, intellectual property, and supply chain resilience
   • Present a united front in negotiations with both the US and China
   • Resist pressure for individual countries to make concessions that undermine regional interests
2. Neutrality as a Strategic Asset
   • Position ASEAN as a neutral economic zone that maintains productive relations with both superpowers
   • Resist being forced to choose sides in specific technological or regulatory domains

Infrastructure and Connectivity Solutions

Physical Infrastructure

1. Strategic Port and Logistics Development
   • Accelerate implementation of the Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity
   • Prioritize cross-border infrastructure projects that reduce dependence on any single trade corridor
   • Develop alternative shipping and air cargo routes that can bypass potential disruption points
2. Digital Infrastructure
   • Expand region-wide digital payment systems and e-commerce platforms
   • Develop ASEAN data governance frameworks that balance US and Chinese approaches
   • Invest in autonomous regional cloud infrastructure

Industrial Policy Coordination

Strategic Sector Development

1. Critical Supply Chain Mapping and Intervention
   • Identify essential products and components where ASEAN is overly dependent on either US or Chinese inputs
   • Develop targeted incentives for localization of critical production
   • Create emergency stockpiling mechanisms for essential industrial inputs
2. Manufacturing Complementarity
   • Coordinate industrial policies to avoid wasteful competition for investment
   • Develop specialized manufacturing zones that complement rather than compete with each other
   • Encourage intra-ASEAN investment in manufacturing capacity

Financial and Trade Facilitation

Financial Resilience

1. Local Currency Settlement Expansion
   • Reduce dependence on USD or RMB for regional trade
   • Expand the ASEAN+3 currency swap arrangements
   • Develop ASEAN payment mechanisms resilient to external financial sanctions
2. Supply Chain Financing
   • Create regional financing mechanisms specifically for supply chain restructuring
   • Develop ASEAN standards for supply chain due diligence that satisfy both US and Chinese requirements
   • Launch regional initiatives to help SMEs manage compliance costs

Implementation Challenges

Despite these potential solutions, ASEAN faces significant challenges:

1. Diverse Development Levels: The economic disparity between Singapore and countries like Myanmar or Laos makes unified approaches difficult
2. Sovereignty Concerns: Member states often prioritise national interests over regional integration
3. External Pressure: Both China and the US may pressure individual ASEAN members to make bilateral concessions
4. Implementation Capacity: Many proposed solutions require technical capabilities that vary widely across member states

Nevertheless, the current trade tensions create a compelling incentive for ASEAN to overcome these challenges and deepen regional cooperation as a hedge against great power competition. By presenting a united front and offering itself as a neutral production base with access to both markets, ASEAN could turn geopolitical challenges into strategic opportunities for regional economic integration.

ASEAN’s Potential Pivot Toward China Amid US-China Trade War

The escalating US-China trade war could accelerate a shift in ASEAN’s economic orientation more toward China. While ASEAN has historically maintained balanced relationships with both powers, several factors may now drive a greater tilt towards China in the region’s economic relationships.

Structural Factors Favouring a China Pivot

Geographic and Economic Gravity

1. Proximity Advantage
   • Physical closeness reduces shipping costs and times, particularly important during supply chain disruptions
   • Integrated land connections via initiatives like the China-Laos Railway and planned Malaysia-Singapore rail links
   • Easier coordination across similar time zones for business operations
2. Economic Scale and Growth Trajectory
   • China remains ASEAN’s largest trading partner (over $975 billion in 2023)
   • China’s economy continues to grow faster than the US despite slowdowns
   • Expanding Chinese consumer market offers growth potential for ASEAN exports

Trade Policy Dynamics

1. Tariff Asymmetry
   • The current US tariff structure (145% on Chinese goods vs 10% on others) creates immediate incentives to route production through ASEAN
   • Chinese investments in ASEAN manufacturing could rapidly increase to circumvent US tariffs
   • US scrutiny of origin rules may paradoxically accelerate genuine manufacturing shifts to ASEAN
2. Regional Trade Architecture
   • RCEP implementation creates a China-inclusive framework for regional trade
   • China has shown flexibility on many non-tariff barriers in its ASEAN engagement
   • US withdrawal from TPP reduced its economic policy leadership in the region

Recent Developments Accelerating the Trend

Chinese Strategic Engagement

1. Investment Redirection
   • Chinese outbound investment increasingly focuses on ASEAN as US access becomes more restricted
   • Infrastructure projects under BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) create physical connectivity biased toward China
   • Chinese technology companies facing US restrictions increasingly establish ASEAN regional hubs
2. Supply Chain Integration
   • Chinese manufacturers actively building “China+ASEAN” production networks
   • Rising wage costs in China already driving manufacturing shifts to Vietnam, Cambodia, and Indonesia
   • Chinese companies bringing suppliers and technology ecosystems with them

US Policy Constraints

1. Negotiation Approach
   • As noted in the article, the US is pursuing bilateral deals rather than regional frameworks
   • Pressuring individual countries (like South Korea and Japan) creates divisions rather than regional coherence
   • Warning language from China about “appeasement” creates political costs for US alignment
2. Investment Limitations
   • US investment in the region focuses more on services and high-tech than manufacturing
   • US companies have been slower to develop alternative supply chains compared to Chinese counterparts
   • American emphasis on political conditions for economic engagement creates friction

Country-Specific Pivot Potentials

High Potential for China Pivot

1. Cambodia and Laos
   • Already heavily dependent on Chinese investment and trade
   • Limited US economic engagement provides little counterbalance
   • Infrastructure increasingly oriented toward Chinese connectivity
2. Myanmar
   • Post-coup Western sanctions push military government toward China
   • Chinese resource investments and infrastructure projects create structural dependencies
   • Border trade increasingly critical for economic survival

Medium Pivot Potential

1. Thailand and Malaysia
   • Significant trade relationships with both powers but growing Chinese investment
   • Strategic positioning as manufacturing alternatives to China for Western companies
   • Carefully balancing relations but economic gravity pulling toward China
2. Indonesia
   • Resource exports (particularly critical minerals) increasingly directed to China
   • Chinese investments in infrastructure and manufacturing growing rapidly
   • Maintaining strategic autonomy but economic ties to China strengthening

More Balanced Positioning

1. Vietnam
   • Despite deep economic integration with China, maintains political wariness
   • Actively courting Western investment as a China alternative
   • Strategic concerns about Chinese dominance moderate economic alignment
2. Philippines
   • Security ties with US create counterbalance to economic gravity
   • Territorial disputes with China complicate economic integration
   • Current administration attempting to balance relations with both powers
3. Singapore
   • Highly globalized economy with strong ties to both powers
   • Strategic interest in maintaining neutrality and rules-based economic order
   • Sophisticated positioning as intermediary rather than choosing sides

Strategic Implications of a China Pivot

Regional Architecture Evolution

1. Economic Institutionalization
   • China-centered supply chains could drive more formalized economic architecture
   • Yuan internationalization may accelerate in regional trade
   • Standards and certifications could increasingly reflect Chinese preferences
2. Strategic Autonomy Concerns
   • Increased economic dependence on China could constrain ASEAN’s freedom of action
   • Critical infrastructure and digital systems may become more aligned with Chinese standards
   • Technology ecosystems might gradually separate into Chinese and Western spheres

The trade war appears to be accelerating trends that were already underway, creating conditions where economic pragmatism may drive ASEAN into closer alignment with China despite political and security concerns about overdependence. While ASEAN will continue attempting to balance relations with both powers, the immediate economic imperatives created by extreme US tariffs on China may create path dependencies that prove difficult to reverse, even if trade tensions eventually moderate.

Historical Shifts in Imperial Power Through Global Conflicts

Global wars have historically served as transformative events that dramatically redistribute power between empires and nation-states. These conflicts accelerate existing trends, reveal hidden weaknesses, create new power vacuaries, and fundamentally alter the international order.

The Napoleonic Wars: Britain’s Rise to Global Dominance

The Napoleonic Wars (1803-1815) marked a crucial transition in global power:

1. Naval Supremacy Consolidation
   • Britain’s victory at Trafalgar (1805) established uncontested naval dominance
   • This naval power became the foundation for a century of British imperial expansion
   • France’s continental focus ultimately proved insufficient against Britain’s global reach
2. Economic Transformation
   • Britain’s industrial revolution accelerated during the conflict
   • War financing innovations strengthened London as a financial center
   • Continental Europe’s productive capacity suffered extensive damage

The outcome established Britain as the dominant global power for the next century, demonstrating how war can accelerate technological advantages and create lasting power differentials.

World War I: Imperial Fracturing and American Emergence

World War I (1914-1918) fundamentally reshaped the global order:

1. Imperial Collapse
   • Four major empires disintegrated: Ottoman, Austro-Hungarian, German, and Russian
   • Colonial subjects witnessed European vulnerability, planting seeds for independence movements
   • Britain and France appeared victorious but suffered irreparable economic and demographic damage
2. America’s Economic Ascendance
   • The US transformed from debtor to creditor nation
   • American industrial capacity expanded dramatically while Europe’s contracted
   • The war accelerated the financial center shift from London to New York

While maintaining an isolationist posture politically, the United States emerged as the world’s strongest economic power, demonstrating how global conflicts can accelerate power transitions already underway.

World War II: The Bipolar Order Emerges

World War II (1939-1945) caused the most dramatic power redistribution in modern history:

1. European Imperial Collapse
   • Britain and France’s imperial positions became untenable after the war
   • Military overextension and financial exhaustion accelerated decolonisation
   • Japan’s early victories permanently shattered the myth of Western invincibility in Asia
2. Superpower Emergence
   • The United States and the Soviet Union emerged as the dominant powers
   • American economic dominance reached unprecedented levels (nearly 50% of global GDP)
   • Military technology (particularly nuclear weapons) created a new power calculus
3. Global Institutions
   • The post-war order established institutions (UN, IMF, World Bank) that reflected new power realities
   • Economic frameworks like Bretton Woods institutionalised American economic leadership

This conflict completely reshaped the international order, replacing a multipolar imperial system with a bipolar superpower competition.

Cold War End: Unipolar Moment

While not a hot war, the Cold War’s conclusion demonstrated how imperial overextension can lead to collapse:

1. Soviet Imperial Overreach
   • Military spending is unsustainable relative to the economic base
   • Imperial control costs in Eastern Europe and Afghanistan drained resources
   • The technological gap widened as innovation systems faltered
2. American Unipolar Position
   • The US emerged with an uncontested military, economic, and ideological position
   • Dollar dominance and financial system control created unprecedented influence
   • American-led globalisation expanded rapidly into former Soviet spheres

This transition showed how, even without direct military confrontation, imperial systems can collapse when overstretched and outcompeted.

Common Patterns in Power Transitions

Analysing these historical cases reveals several consistent patterns:

1. Economic Foundation Primacy
   • Military power ultimately follows economic capacity
   • Wars accelerate economic divergence between powers
   • Financial system control often transitions before military dominance
2. Technology Acceleration
   • Conflicts drive rapid technological innovation and adoption
   • Powers that enter wars with technological advantages often exit with even greater leads
   • Military technology breakthroughs frequently translate to civilian economic advantages
3. Institutional Entrenchment
   • Rising powers establish institutions that legitimise and extend their influence
   • These institutions often outlast the peak power of their creators
   • Control of global commons (seas, air, space, and now cyberspace) becomes formalised
4. Imperial Overextension
   • Declining powers often fail to recognise unsustainable commitments
   • Military spending beyond economic capacity accelerates decline
   • Defence of imperial positions diverts resources from domestic innovation

Implications for Current US-China Competition

Applied to the current situation, these historical patterns suggest:

1. Economic Foundations
   • Manufacturing capacity shifts to China mirror previous imperial transitions
   • Financial system control remains firmly American, unlike previous transitions
   • Technological competition is more balanced than in previous transitions
2. Institutional Competition
   • China is creating parallel institutions (AIIB, BRI) while the US maintains legacy system control
   • Neither power has the clear institutional advantage characteristic of previous transitions
   • Regional subsystems (like ASEAN) have more agency than in previous transitions
3. Conflict Acceleration Risk
   • Historical transitions have rarely occurred peacefully
   • The current trade war could represent the early stages of a more comprehensive competition
   • Nuclear weapons create restraints absent in previous transitions

While historical analogies have limitations, particularly given nuclear deterrence and economic interdependence, the pattern of global conflicts accelerating imperial transitions suggests the current US-China trade tensions could represent an early phase of a more fundamental power realignment.

Strategic Infrastructure Integration

1. Physical Connectivity: China’s infrastructure proposals create lasting dependencies:
   • The Vietnamese rail links would enable “Vietnam to plug into transcontinental rail networks”
   • These projects represent “strategic infrastructure cooperation” that binds economies together
2. Supply Chain Integration: The 45 agreements with Vietnam specifically cover supply chains, creating mutual economic interests that are difficult to unwind.
3. Long-Term Alignment: Infrastructure projects have decades-long timeframes, effectively locking in Chinese influence regardless of political changes.

Forcing Difficult Diplomatic Calculations

1. Balanced Approach Becomes Harder: ASEAN’s traditional strategy of balancing great powers becomes more difficult:
   • The article notes these countries “cannot afford to anger Mr Trump, given the size of the US market”
   • Yet they also “welcome Chinese investments”
   • This creates internal tension in their foreign policy
2. Path of Least Resistance: As maintaining balanced relationships becomes more challenging, the consistent Chinese approach may appear more appealing than the volatile US stance.
3. Collective Security Concerns: ASEAN unity faces pressure as individual nations make different calculations about how to respond to US tariffs.

Regional Identity Reinforcement

1. Shared Asian Experience: Trump’s broad tariffs on multiple Asian countries reinforce a sense of common cause:
   • China can position itself as a fellow Asian power, understanding regional concerns
   • The contrast between Western and Eastern approaches becomes more pronounced
2. Alternative Regional Order: China can present ASEAN-China cooperation as part of a broader Asian century narrative:
   • The article notes Beijing’s strategy of “wresting influence from the US”
   • China offers a vision where Asian nations determine their own economic future
3. Shared Adversity: Facing standard US pressure creates solidarity that China can leverage diplomatically.

Long-Term Implications for Regional Architecture

1. Economic Integration Acceleration: US tariffs may inadvertently accelerate the region’s economic integration with China:
   • The article mentions China has “already diversified trade to reduce its reliance on the US”
   • ASEAN nations may follow this model out of necessity
2. Alternative Frameworks: Pressure may increase ASEAN’s receptiveness to China-led initiatives, such as the RCEP,P while decreasing enthusiasm for US-led frameworks.
3. Diplomatic Realignment: The article suggests China sees the trade war as “just one front in a much larger contest for global influence” – and Trump’s approach appears to be unintentionally ceding ground in this contest.

Conclusion

While ASEAN nations will continue attempting to balance relations with both powers, Trump’s aggressive tariff approach appears to be creating conditions that make closer alignment with China both economically necessary and diplomatically appealing in the short term. This runs counter to the stated US strategic objectives in the region and demonstrates how economic coercion, lacking diplomatic finesse, can produce counterproductive outcomes in complex regional environments.

The article suggests that China is well aware of this dynamic, with Xi carefully playing the long game of regional influence. At the same time, Trump focuses on immediate economic confrontation—a contrast that may ultimately shift the regional centre of gravity toward Beijing, despite Washington’s intentions.

Science Fiction’s Vision of Eastern Power Ascendance

Many science fiction works have indeed explored scenarios where global power shifts eastward following major conflicts or societal transformations. This trend reflects both geopolitical anxieties and observations about changing global dynamics.

Major Science Fiction Works Depicting Eastern Ascendance

Classic Works

1. Frank Herbert’s “Dune” series (1965-): This series takes place in a future where Eastern and Islamic cultural influences have merged with Western elements, with concepts like “Zensunni” philosophy demonstrating the enduring influence of Eastern thought.
2. Philip K. Dick’s “The Man in the High Castle” (1962): While focusing on Japanese/German victory in WWII rather than WWIII, it explores themes of Eastern cultural and political influence in America.

Cyberpunk Movement

1. William Gibson’s “Neuromancer” and the Sprawl trilogy (1984-1988:depicts a world dominated by Japanese zaibatsu (corporations), with Eastern economic and technological supremacy following the decline of American dominance.
2. Neal Stephenson’s “Snow Crash” (1992): Features remnants of America under heavy East Asian influence, particularly from Chinese and Japanese corporate entities.

Contemporary Works

1. Liu Cixin’s “The Three-Body Problem” trilogy (2008-2010): Although not explicitly set in the post-WWII era, it presents China as a central power in humanity’s response to existential threats.
2. David Wingrove’s “Chung Kuo” series (1989-1997): Set in a future where China has become the dominant world power and restructured global society.
3. Kim Stanley Robinson’s “Red Mars” trilogy (1992-1996): Features China as one of the dominant powers in space colonisation efforts.

Common Themes in Eastern Ascendance Fiction

1. Technological Leadership: Many works portray Eastern nations, particularly China, Japan, and a pan-Asian coalition, as technological innovators, especially in robotics, cybernetics, and artificial intelligence.
2. Cultural Resilience: Eastern philosophical systems and social structures are often depicted as more adaptable to post-apocalyptic or resource-scarce environments.
3. Economic Dominance: The Eastern economic model, often featuring state capitalism or a corporate-state hybrid, frequently supplants Western economic systems.
4. Demographic advantages, as some studies emphasise, are factors in post-conflict resilience, particularly among Eastern populations and in promoting social cohesion.

Historical Context for These Predictions

Science fiction’s vision of Eastern ascendance reflects several real-world trends and anxieties:

1. Cold War Anxieties: Earlier works often responded to the perceived decline of the West in the face of Soviet and Eastern bloc advancement.
2. Japan’s Economic Rise: The 1980s, in particular, reflected American anxiety about Japan’s growing economic power.
3. China’s Growth Trajectory: Recent works reflect observations about China’s increasing economic and technological influence.
4. Post-Western World Order: Contemporary science fiction increasingly portrays multipolar worlds where Western dominance has come to an end.

While these fictional scenarios don’t predict actual World War 3 outcomes (since that conflict hasn’t occurred), they do reflect ongoing speculation about how global power dynamics might evolve following major systemic disruptions.

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