Analysis of China’s Approach to South China Sea Disputes and Regional Leadership Ambitions

Current Strategy and Its Contradictions

https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/xis-golden-opportunity-to-be-the-bigger-person-in-the-south-china-sea-row

Based on the article, China’s approach to the South China Sea disputes reveals a fundamental contradiction in its regional leadership ambitions. While President Xi Jinping emphasises diplomacy, economic partnership, and anti-hegemonic rhetoric during his Southeast Asian tour, China’s actions in the disputed waters tell a different story.

The China Coast Guard (CCG) has significantly increased its presence in the region, with 1,939 patrolling days in 2024, up from 1,652 in 2023. This aggressive maritime enforcement is undermining China’s diplomatic efforts and reinforcing regional anxieties about its intentions, even as Beijing tries to position itself as a more reliable partner than the United States under Trump.

Regional Perception and Concerns

The article cites the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s 2025 report, which shows that China’s behaviour in the South China Sea has become the top concern for regional governments, surpassing even the Israel-Hamas conflict. This suggests that despite economic cooperation and diplomatic overtures, China’s maritime assertiveness remains the primary obstacle to its acceptance as a regional leader.

Southeast Asian nations, such as the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Indonesia, perceive China’s actions as contradicting its diplomatic messaging. While they welcome economic engagement, they remain wary of China’s territorial ambitions and perceive its claims as being asserted through heavy-handed tactics.

The Code of Conduct Stalemate

The decades-long negotiations for a Code of Conduct between ASEAN and China appear to have made little substantive progress despite recent claims of completing a “third reading.” The article suggests China may be deliberately slow-walking these negotiations while strengthening its position on the ground through island-building and militarization.

This approach reflects a strategy of buying time rather than seeking genuine resolution, undermining China’s credibility as a responsible stakeholder interested in a rules-based order.

Strategic Opportunities Missed

The article argues that China has a unique opportunity to demonstrate statesmanship given the current US administration’s focus on mercantilism rather than strategic engagement. By continuing aggressive maritime enforcement instead of showing restraint, China is missing an opportunity to solidify its regional leadership role during a period when the US appears distracted.

The author suggests specific actions that would enhance China’s standing:

• Reducing CCG patrolling throughout the nine-dash line area
• Accelerating Code of Conduct negotiations with genuine compromises
• Taking a more measured approach toward the Philippines despite provocations

Conclusion

China’s approach to the South China Sea reveals the tension between its desire for regional leadership and its unwillingness to compromise on territorial claims. While its economic initiatives and diplomatic rhetoric promote a vision of harmonious cooperation, its maritime enforcement actions project a different message entirely.

If China truly aspires to regional leadership, the article suggests it needs to recognise that authentic leadership requires restraint and magnanimity, not just economic leverage and military power. The current moment presents a strategic opportunity for China to “go high” while others “go low”; however, this would require significant adjustments to its South China Sea strategy, which, thus far, appears unlikely.

it

The Contradiction Between Chinese Rhetoric and Actions in the South China Sea

The Fundamental Disconnect

The article highlights a striking contradiction in China’s regional approach: President Xi Jinping condemns “unilateral bullying,” “hegemony,” and “power politics” during diplomatic visits, while simultaneously directing what many regional states perceive as precisely these behaviours in the South China Sea. This disconnect manifests in several ways:

• Diplomatic messaging vs. maritime enforcement: Xi speaks of harmony and cooperation while the China Coast Guard intensifies its presence in disputed waters
• Economic partnership vs. territorial aggression: China positions itself as a reliable economic partner while challenging neighbours’ maritime rights
• Anti-hegemonic rhetoric vs. hegemonic behaviour: China criticises US dominance while attempting to establish regional dominance of its own kind

Possible Causes and Motivations

Domestic Political Considerations

One likely driver is domestic politics. The Chinese Communist Party’s legitimacy increasingly draws on nationalism and territorial integrity. Any perceived softening on sovereignty claims could be interpreted as weakness by domestic audiences. The South China Sea has become symbolically crucial in Chinese national identity as part of the “century of humiliation” narrative and subsequent national rejuvenation.

Strategic Ambiguity as Policy

The contradiction might be intentional rather than accidental. This “strategic ambiguity” allows China to reap benefits from:

• Maintaining positive economic relationships while advancing territorial goals
• Creating uncertainty about its true intentions, complicating regional coordination against its actions
• Preserving flexibility to dial tensions up or down as circumstances require

Bureaucratic Fragmentation

Multiple agencies shape China’s approach to the South China Sea, including the military, coast guard, foreign ministry, and economic planners. These entities may have different priorities and approaches, leading to uncoordinated and sometimes contradictory policies. The article’s observation that CCG patrols decreased near Second Thomas Shoal after a political agreement suggests central control exists but may not be consistently exercised.

Historical Timeline and Long-term Strategy

China may view its current approach as part of a long-term strategy, believing time is on its side. From this perspective, maintaining claims through coast guard presence while slowly building economic dependencies creates leverage that will eventually make resistance to Chinese territorial claims too costly for smaller neighbours.

Security Concerns

China genuinely perceives American containment as a threat to its core interests. Control of the South China Sea represents a security buffer that protects mainland China and secures vital shipping lanes. From this perspective, Chinese leaders may believe they cannot afford to compromise on maritime claims despite the diplomatic costs.

The Cost-Benefit Calculation

The persistence of this contradiction suggests Chinese leadership has calculated that the benefits outweigh the costs. However, as the article points out, this calculation may be flawed. The approach is:

• Creating precisely the regional anxiety that drives closer security relationships with the United States
• Undermining China’s soft power and credibility when it has an opportunity to present itself as a more reliable partner than a mercurial United States
• Generating solidarity among ASEAN members who might otherwise have divergent interests

China appears to be prioritising absolute gains in territorial control over relative gains in regional influence and soft power. This suggests a hierarchy of priorities where sovereignty claims take precedence over diplomatic advantages, at least in the near term.

The contradiction remains unresolved because China has yet to find a formula that allows it to assert maritime claims without undermining its broader regional leadership ambitions. Until Chinese leadership determines that the diplomatic costs outweigh the territorial benefits, this contradiction is likely to persist as a defining feature of regional geopolitics.

How Trump’s Approach Inadvertently Creates Space for Chinese Regional Expansion

The Opportunity Created by American Retreat

The article suggests that Trump’s “tariff madness” and “grand caper” create a strategic opening for China to strengthen its regional position. This ironic dynamic works in several ways:

Diplomatic Vacuum

When Trump focuses narrowly on mercantilism and bilateral trade relationships rather than regional security architecture, he creates a diplomatic vacuum that China eagerly fills. The article directly references this opportunity, noting that Xi has “a rare window of opportunity” to “cement its soft-power hold on the region, while Mr Trump remains fixated on mercantilist priorities rather than preserving his country’s strategic dominance.”

This retreat from America’s traditional role as a regional security guarantor allows China to position itself as a more reliable and consistent partner, despite its territorial assertiveness. Xi’s three-nation tour exemplifies China’s efforts to capitalise on this vacuum through active diplomatic engagement.

Undermining Alliance Credibility

Trump’s transactional approach to alliances fundamentally undermines confidence in the United States’ security commitments. When a key ally like the Philippines observes unpredictable American leadership focused primarily on economic grievances, it may calculate that resolute resistance to Chinese territorial claims becomes riskier without guaranteed US support.

The article hints at this reality by noting that China has an opportunity to improve relations with the Philippines while Washington appears to be distracted. This distraction weakens the primary external counterbalance to Chinese maritime assertiveness.

Economic Alternatives

As Trump imposes tariffs and pursues protectionist policies, China can present itself as the guardian of open trade and economic integration in Asia. The article describes Xi condemning “shocks to global order and economic globalisation” during his tour – a clear contrast to Trump’s approach. This positioning enables China to deepen its economic dependencies, which may ultimately translate into political influence.

Strategic Miscalculation

Perhaps most ironically, Trump’s bullying trade tactics may be having the opposite of their intended effect. Rather than forcing Chinese concessions, they may be reinforcing Chinese leaders’ belief that they must secure their near-abroad against an unpredictable America. This could actually accelerate China’s determination to establish dominance in the South China Sea as a strategic buffer.

The Limitations of the Opportunity

However, the article also suggests that China isn’t fully capitalising on this opening because of its own counterproductive approach in the South China Sea. The opportunity created by Trump’s policies is partially squandered by China’s inability to moderate its maritime assertiveness.

The author argues that China could truly consolidate regional leadership by showing restraint in the disputed waters – “pulling its punches” when everyone already knows its strength. Instead, Beijing’s aggressive coast guard deployments validate regional concerns and prevent China from fully exploiting America’s diplomatic retreat.

The Resulting Regional Dynamics

The combination of Trump’s mercantilism and China’s territorial assertiveness creates a complex environment for Southeast Asian nations, who find themselves with:

1. A traditional security partner (US) that seems unreliable and transactional
2. An economic partner (China) that presents security challenges through its maritime claims

This forces regional states into careful hedging strategies rather than precise alignment with either power. The article implies that if either great power modified its approach – Trump by recommitting to regional security, or China by moderating its maritime claims – it could significantly shift regional dynamics in its favour.

The ultimate irony may be that Trump’s bullying behaviour creates an opening for China, but China’s own bullying in the South China Sea prevents it from fully exploiting that opportunity.

How Empires Emerge from Regional Leadership Aspirations

The Evolution from Regional Power to Empire

The dynamics described in the article about China’s approach to the South China Sea illuminate a broader historical pattern in how empires often emerge. Regional leadership frequently serves as the first step toward imperial expansion, not necessarily through deliberate design but through the gradual accumulation of power and influence.

Security-Driven Expansion

Many empires begin with legitimate security concerns. China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea reflects a classic security motivation – controlling buffer zones to protect the homeland. Similarly, the Roman Empire’s initial expansion beyond Italy was partly motivated by eliminating threats from neighbouring powers, such as Carthage. The United States followed this pattern with the Monroe Doctrine, asserting regional hegemony to prevent European powers from establishing footholds near American borders.

This “security dilemma” often leads to a cycle where:

1. A rising power seeks security through limited regional control
2. This creates insecurity among neighbours who then seek countermeasures
3. The rising power perceives these countermeasures as threatening
4. Further expansion becomes necessary to address these new “threats”

Economic Integration as Imperial Foundation

The article highlights China’s economic engagement with Southeast Asia, characterised by deep trade relationships and significant infrastructure investments. This pattern has historical precedents in empire building:

• The British Empire began as trading outposts that gradually required more direct control to protect commercial interests
• Japan’s early 20th-century “Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere” was initially framed as a regional economic cooperation initiative but ultimately evolved into a military occupation.
• The Soviet Union maintained its empire, in part, through economic integration via the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (COMECON).

Economic integration creates dependencies that can be leveraged for political influence, forming a foundation for imperial relationships without formal colonisation.

The Role of Prestige and Status

Nations pursuing regional leadership, like China today, often seek status recognition. The article references China’s desire to be seen as the “elder statesman” of Asia. This quest for prestige and recognition has been a consistent driver of imperial expansion throughout history:

• The British justified their empire through a “civilising mission”
• The United States framed its expansion as promoting democracy and development
• The Soviet Union positioned itself as the leading socialist development

Status competition often pushes regional powers to demonstrate their capabilities through territorial control, military projection, or imposing their values on neighbouring states.

The Slippery Slope to Empire

What begins as regional leadership can evolve into imperial control through incremental steps that seem individually justified:

1. Establishing economic partnerships
2. Creating security arrangements
3. Mediating regional disputes
4. Deploying forces to maintain “stability”
5. Directly intervening inthe internal affairs of weaker states
6. Creating formal or informal vassalage relationships

China’s approach in the South China Sea shows this progression in action. What began as economic engagement has evolved into territorial claims, military deployments, and increasingly assertive behaviour toward smaller neighbours.

The Regional Response: Balancing, Bandwagoning, or Hedging

The article reveals Southeast Asian nations employing sophisticated hedging strategies between China and the United States. Throughout history, smaller states near rising powers have faced similar choices:

• Balancing: Forming coalitions against the dominant power (as some regional states do with the U.S)
• Bandwagoning: Aligning with the rising power (as Cambodia appears to do with China)
• Hedging: Maintaining relationships with multiple powers (as Malaysia and Vietnam attempt)

The collective response of regional states often determines whether regional leadership evolves into imperial control or remains limited to influence without domination.

Contemporary Constraints on Empire

Modern constraints make traditional empire-building more difficult, though not impossible:

• International norms against territorial conquest
• Economic interdependence makes military control less necessary
• Information technology empowering resistance movements
• Nuclear weapons limiting great power direct confrontation

However, these constraints may simply channel imperial ambitions into new forms, such as China’s “debt diplomacy” or Russia’s “near abroad” doctrine – approaches that establish control without formal colonisation.

The contradictions in China’s approach, highlighted in the article – between peaceful rhetoric and assertive behaviour – demonstrate the challenges of pursuing regional leadership in a world where traditional empires are delegitimised but the impulses driving imperial expansion remain potent.

Implications for Current US-China Competition

Applied to the current situation, these historical patterns suggest:

1. Economic Foundations
   • Manufacturing capacity shifts to China mirror previous imperial transitions
   • Financial system control remains firmly American, unlike previous transitions
   • Technological competition is more balanced than in previous transitions
2. Institutional Competition
   • China is creating parallel institutions (AIIB, BRI), while the US maintains control over its legacy system.
   • Neither power has the clear institutional advantage characteristic of previous transition.s
   • Regional subsystems (like ASEAN) have more agency than in previous transition.s
3. Conflict Acceleration Risk
   • Historical transitions have rarely occurred peacefully
   • The current trade war could represent the early stages of a more comprehensive competition
   • Nuclear weapons create restraints absent in previous transitions

While historical analogies have limitations, particularly given nuclear deterrence and economic interdependence, the pattern of global conflicts accelerating imperial transitions suggests the current US-China trade tensions could represent an early phase of a more fundamental power realignment.

Strategic Infrastructure Integration

1. Physical Connectivity: China’s infrastructure proposals create lasting dependencies:
   • The Vietnamese rail links would enable “Vietnam to plug into transcontinental rail networks”
   • These projects represent “strategic infrastructure cooperation” that binds economies together
2. Supply Chain Integration: The 45 agreements with Vietnam specifically cover supply chains, creating mutual economic interests that are difficult to unwind.
3. Long-Term Alignment: Infrastructure projects have decades-long timeframes, effectively locking in Chinese influence regardless of political changes.

Forcing Difficult Diplomatic Calculations

1. Balanced Approach Becomes Harder: ASEAN’s traditional strategy of balancing great powers becomes more difficult:
   • The article notes these countries “cannot afford to anger Mr Trump, given the size of the US market”
   • Yet they also “welcome Chinese investments”
   • This creates internal tension in their foreign policy
2. Path of Least Resistance: As maintaining balanced relationships becomes more challenging, the consistent Chinese approach may appear more appealing than the volatile US stance.
3. Collective Security Concerns: ASEAN unity faces pressure as individual nations make different calculations about how to respond to US tariffs.

Regional Identity Reinforcement

1. Shared Asian Experience: Trump’s broad tariffs on multiple Asian countries reinforce a sense of common cause:
   • China can position itself as a fellow Asian power, understanding regional concerns
   • The contrast between Western and Eastern approaches becomes more pronounced
2. Alternative Regional Order: China can present ASEAN-China cooperation as part of a broader Asian century narrative:
   • The article notes Beijing’s strategy of “wresting influence from the US”
   • China offers a vision where Asian nations determine their own economic future
3. Shared Adversity: Facing standard US pressure creates solidarity that China can leverage diplomatically.

Long-Term Implications for Regional Architecture

1. Economic Integration Acceleration: US tariffs may inadvertently accelerate the region’s economic integration with China:
   • The article mentions China has “already diversified trade to reduce its reliance on the US”
   • ASEAN nations may follow this model out of necessity
2. Alternative Frameworks: Pressure may increase ASEAN’s receptiveness to China-led initiatives, such as the RCEP,P while decreasing enthusiasm for US-led frameworks.
3. Diplomatic Realignment: The article suggests China sees the trade war as “just one front in a much larger contest for global influence” – and Trump’s approach appears to be unintentionally ceding ground in this contest.

Conclusion

While ASEAN nations will continue attempting to balance relations with both powers, Trump’s aggressive tariff approach appears to be creating conditions that make closer alignment with China both economically necessary and diplomatically appealing in the short term. This runs counter to the stated US strategic objectives in the region and demonstrates how economic coercion, lacking diplomatic finesse, can produce counterproductive outcomes in complex regional environments.

The article suggests that China is well aware of this dynamic, with Xi carefully playing the long game of regional influence. At the same time, Trump focuses on immediate economic confrontation—a contrast that may ultimately shift the regional centre of gravity toward Beijing, despite Washington’s intentions.

Science Fiction’s Vision of Eastern Power Ascendance

Many science fiction works have indeed explored scenarios where global power shifts eastward following major conflicts or societal transformations. This trend reflects both geopolitical anxieties and observations about changing global dynamics.

Major Science Fiction Works Depicting Eastern Ascendance

Classic Works

1. Frank Herbert’s “Dune” series (1965-): This series takes place in a future where Eastern and Islamic cultural influences have merged with Western elements, with concepts like “Zensunni” philosophy demonstrating the enduring influence of Eastern thought.
2. Philip K. Dick’s “The Man in the High Castle” (1962): While focusing on Japanese/German victory in WWII rather than WWIII, it explores themes of Eastern cultural and political influence in America.

Cyberpunk Movement

1. William Gibson’s “Neuromancer” and the Sprawl trilogy (1984-1988:depicts a world dominated by Japanese zaibatsu (corporations), with Eastern economic and technological supremacy following the decline of American dominance.
2. Neal Stephenson’s “Snow Crash” (1992): Features remnants of America under heavy East Asian influence, particularly from Chinese and Japanese corporate entities.

Contemporary Works

1. Liu Cixin’s “The Three-Body Problem” trilogy (2008-2010): Although not explicitly set in the post-WWII era, it presents China as a central power in humanity’s response to existential threats.
2. David Wingrove’s “Chung Kuo” series (1989-1997): Set in a future where China has become the dominant world power and restructured global society.
3. Kim Stanley Robinson’s “Red Mars” trilogy (1992-1996): Features China as one of the dominant powers in space colonisation efforts.

Common Themes in Eastern Ascendance Fiction

1. Technological Leadership: Many works portray Eastern nations, particularly China, Japan, and a pan-Asian coalition, as technological innovators, especially in robotics, cybernetics, and artificial intelligence.
2. Cultural Resilience: Eastern philosophical systems and social structures are often depicted as more adaptable to post-apocalyptic or resource-scarce environments.
3. Economic Dominance: The Eastern economic model, often featuring state capitalism or a corporate-state hybrid, frequently supplants Western economic systems.
4. Demographic advantages, as some studies emphasise, are factors in post-conflict resilience, particularly among Eastern populations and in promoting social cohesion.

Historical Context for These Predictions

Science fiction’s vision of Eastern ascendance reflects several real-world trends and anxieties:

1. Cold War Anxieties: Earlier works often responded to the perceived decline of the West in the face of Soviet and Eastern bloc advancement.
2. Japan’s Economic Rise: The 1980s, in particular, reflected American anxiety about Japan’s growing economic power.
3. China’s Growth Trajectory: Recent works reflect observations about China’s increasing economic and technological influence.
4. Post-Western World Order: Contemporary science fiction increasingly portrays multipolar worlds where Western dominance has come to an end.

While these fictional scenarios don’t predict actual World War 3 outcomes (since that conflict hasn’t occurred), they do reflect ongoing speculation about how global power dynamics might evolve following major systemic disruptions.

Maxthon 

When it comes to staying safe online, using a secure and private browser is crucial. Such a browser can help protect your personal information and keep you safe from cyber threats. One option that offers these features is the Maxthon Browser, which is available for free. It comes with built-in AdBlock and anti-tracking software to enhance your browsing privacy.

Maxthon Browser is dedicated to providing a secure and private browsing experience for its users. With a strong focus on privacy and security, Maxthon implements rigorous measures to protect user data and online activities from potential threats. The browser utilises advanced encryption protocols to ensure that user information remains protected during internet sessions.

Additionally, Maxthon incorporates features such as ad blockers, anti-tracking tools, and incognito mode to enhance users’ privacy. By blocking unwanted ads and preventing tracking, the browser helps maintain a secure environment for online activities. Furthermore, incognito mode enables users to browse the web without leaving any trace of their history or activity on the device.

Maxthon’s commitment to prioritising the privacy and security of its users is exemplified through regular updates and security enhancements. These updates are designed to address emerging vulnerabilities and ensure that the browser maintains its reputation as a safe and reliable option for those seeking a private browsing experience. Overall, Maxthon Browser provides a comprehensive suite of tools and features designed to deliver a secure and private browsing experience.

 Maxthon Browser, a free web browser, provides users with a secure and private browsing experience through its built-in AdBlock and anti-tracking software. These features help to protect users from intrusive ads and prevent websites from tracking their online activities. The browser’s AdBlock functionality blocks annoying pop-ups and banners, allowing for an uninterrupted browsing session. Additionally, the anti-tracking software safeguards user privacy by preventing websites from collecting personal data without consent.

By utilising Maxthon Browser, users can browse the internet confidently, knowing that their online activities are shielded from prying eyes. The integrated security features alleviate concerns about potential privacy breaches, ensuring a safer browsing environment. Furthermore, the browser’s user-friendly interface makes it easy for individuals to customise their privacy settings according to their preferences.

Maxthon Browser not only delivers a seamless browsing experience but also prioritises the privacy and security of its users through its efficient ad-blocking and anti-tracking capabilities. With these protective measures in place, users can enjoy the internet with confidence, knowing their online privacy is protected. 

Additionally, the desktop version of Maxthon Browser integrates seamlessly with their VPN, providing an extra layer of security. By using this browser, you can minimise the risk of encountering online threats and enjoy a safer internet experience. With its combination of security features, Maxthon Browser aims to provide users with peace of mind while they browse.

Maxthon Browser stands out as a reliable choice for users who prioritise privacy and security. With its robust encryption measures and extensive privacy settings, it offers a secure browsing experience that gives users peace of mind. The browser’s commitment to protecting user data and preventing unauthorised access sets it apart in the competitive market of web browsers.