The Core Philosophy of Bamboo Diplomacy

Vietnam’s bamboo diplomacy is elegantly captured in the metaphor offered by its late leader Nguyen Phu Trong: a nation needs “strong roots, stout trunk, and flexible branches.” This approach represents a sophisticated foreign policy strategy for smaller powers navigating an increasingly complex multipolar world.

The “strong roots and stout trunk” represent Vietnam’s unwavering commitment to its core principles of national sovereignty and independence, values deeply ingrained in Vietnamese identity after centuries of struggle against foreign domination by China, France, and the United States. The “flexible branches” symbolise Vietnam’s pragmatic adaptability in engaging with major powers while avoiding permanent alignment with any single one.

The Four Nos

Vietnam’s bamboo diplomacy is formally structured around “four nos”:

1. No joining permanent alliances
2. No siding with one country against another
3. No letting other powers use their territory to launch wars
4. No threatening force in settling disputes

These principles serve as guardrails that preserve Vietnam’s strategic autonomy while allowing for situational cooperation with various powers.

Practical Implementation

In practice, Vietnam maintains a delicate balancing act. It has signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with the United States, which serves as a potential counterweight against Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea. Simultaneously, Vietnam has established 36 cooperation agreements with China under the framework of building a “shared future for mankind.”

This careful calibration extends to other relationships as well. Vietnam’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exemplifies the complexities of bamboo diplomacy in action: while sympathising with Ukraine’s violated sovereignty, Vietnam abstained from UN resolutions condemning Russia, maintained dialogue with Moscow, and still extended bilateral solidarity and humanitarian aid to Kyiv.

Impact on ASEAN and Regional Dynamics

Vietnam’s bamboo diplomacy has a significant influence on ASEAN’s collective approach to great power politics. As one of ASEAN’s more influential members, Vietnam’s balanced stance helps the organisation maintain its “centrality” in regional affairs without being pulled into exclusive alignment with either the US or China.

This balanced approach has become increasingly relevant as other ASEAN members face similar pressures. Indonesia, under its “free and active” foreign policy, Malaysia with its hedging strategy, and even traditionally pro-Western Philippines have all adopted variants of non-alignment that echo Vietnam’s approach.

Singapore’s Parallel Approach

Singapore practices what the article refers to as “equidistant diplomacy” between the United States and China. While the terminology differs, there are striking parallels to Vietnam’s bamboo diplomacy:

• Both prioritise national sovereignty and independence
• Both maintain substantial economic relationships with all major powers
• Both avoid exclusive security arrangements that would alienate either the US or China

The key difference lies in implementation: Singapore, as a global financial hub, has traditionally leaned more toward Western economic and security frameworks while maintaining cordial relations with China. Vietnam, with its communist political system, has historically had closer political ties with China while developing deeper economic integration with Western markets.

Broader Impact on Asia

Vietnam’s bamboo diplomacy represents a potential model for other Asian nations navigating great power competition:

1. India’s “multi-alignment” approach resembles bamboo diplomacy in its strategy for balancing relationships. India participates in the Quad, alongside the US, Japan, and Australia, while continuing to make arms purchases from Russia and remaining a member of BRICS.
2. Middle powers across Asia, including South Korea, Australia, and Indonesia, are increasingly adopting flexible diplomatic approaches that enable them to avoid binary choices between the US and China.
3. Smaller states find in bamboo diplomacy a template for preserving autonomy despite asymmetric power relationships with larger neighbours.

The New World Context

The article frames bamboo diplomacy as particularly relevant in today’s “New World Disorder”, where the US under Trump appears to be abandoning its role as guarantor of the rules-based order in favour of more transactional, interest-based approaches. In this environment, the article suggests that idealistic alignment based purely on values (democracies vs. autocracies) or traditional alliance patterns may be less viable than the pragmatic flexibility of bamboo diplomacy.

Limitations and Challenges

However, bamboo diplomacy faces several challenges:

1. Moral dilemmas – As seen in Vietnam’s contorted response to Ukraine, balancing competing interests can sometimes lead to positions that appear inconsistent or morally compromised.
2. Tremendous power pressure – Major powers may increasingly demand more precise alignment, making the middle ground more challenging to maintain.
3. Domestic tensions – Balancing acts can create internal contradictions in policy that may become increasingly difficult to sustain as global tensions escalate.

Bamboo diplomacy offers a sophisticated framework for smaller powers to navigate great power competition, but requires constant recalibration and places significant demands on diplomatic skill and national unity of purpose.

Historical Parallels to Bamboo Diplomacy: Lessons From the Past

Ancient and Classical Precedents

Buffer States in Antiquity

The concept of strategic flexibility has deep historical roots. Ancient buffer states like Armenia navigated between the Roman and Parthian/Sassanid Persian empires by practising a form of proto-bamboo diplomacy. During the 1st to 3rd centuries CE, Armenian kings maintained a nominal allegiance to Rome while preserving cultural and political ties to Persia. This balancing act preserved Armenian autonomy for centuries, though periods of rigid alignment with either empire often led to devastating invasions from the opposing power.

Ancient Indian Mandala Theory

In the ancient Indian political treatise Arthashastra (4th century BCE), Kautilya outlined the “mandala theory” of interstate relations. This sophisticated approach advocated maintaining a circle of states around one’s own kingdom, with varying degrees of alliance and enmity determined by proximity rather than ideology. This approach bears a striking resemblance to modern bamboo diplomacy in its pragmatic recognition that geopolitical realities demand flexible, interest-based relationships rather than fixed alliances.

Medieval and Early Modern Examples

The Byzantine Empire’s Survival Strategy

Perhaps the most successful historical parallel to bamboo diplomacy can be found in the Byzantine Empire’s extraordinary longevity (330-1453 CE). Despite being surrounded by powerful adversaries, Byzantium maintained its independence through diplomatic finesse, often referred to as “Byzantine diplomacy.” This approach included:

1. Playing rivals against each other through strategic alliances
2. Employing economic incentives and cultural soft power
3. Utilising strategic marriages and religious ties
4. Avoiding unnecessary confrontations while maintaining core defensive capabilities

This sophisticated foreign policy enabled Byzantium to survive for over a millennium, despite facing existential threats from Arab caliphates, Slavic kingdoms, Western European powers, and ultimately the Ottoman Turks.

Venice’s Maritime Balancing Act

The Venetian Republic (697-1797 CE) provides another instructive example. As a commercial maritime power without a substantial landmass, Venice developed remarkable diplomatic agility, maintaining simultaneous relationships with the Byzantine Empire, various Italian states, the Holy Roman Empire, and even the Ottoman Empire. This balanced approach allowed Venice to preserve its independence and commercial interests while larger powers fought for continental dominion.

Venice’s eventual decline coincided with its inability to maintain this balancing act as European power politics shifted in the 17th and 18th centuries, demonstrating the perpetual challenge of bamboo diplomacy: the need for continuous adaptation.

Modern Historical Examples

Thailand’s Diplomatic Manoeuvring

Thailand (then Siam) stands as perhaps the most successful practitioner of bamboo diplomacy in the colonial era. While neighbouring states fell under European colonial rule, Siam preserved its independence by skillfully balancing between British and French imperial interests. King Chulalongkorn (r. 1868-1910) implemented reforms that modernised the country while making strategic concessions to both powers, ceding some peripheral territories but preserving the Thai core.

During World War II, Thailand again demonstrated remarkable flexibility by initially aligning with Japan when Japanese power was ascendant, then pivoting toward the Allies as the tide turned. This pragmatic approach minimised occupation damage and positioned Thailand favorably in the post-war order.

Finland’s Survival Strategy

The article mentions “Finlandization” as an inferior alternative to bamboo diplomacy; however, Finland’s Cold War position deserves a nuanced analysis. While Finland did yield significant autonomy in foreign policy to the Soviet Union after 1948, it maintained democratic institutions, a market economy, and cultural ties to the West—achievements that neighbouring Baltic states under direct Soviet control could not attain.

Finland’s approach represented a more constrained version of bamboo diplomacy adapted to the bipolar Cold War environment, where the flexibility available to states was severely limited. The Finnish case demonstrates how even limited diplomatic flexibility can preserve essential sovereignty under extreme pressure.

Impact on Historical Powers and Modern Lessons

Success Patterns

Historical examples of successful bamboo diplomacy reveal several common elements:

1. Clear core interests: States that maintained internal cohesion around essential sovereignty interests while showing flexibility on peripheral matters fared best.
2. Cultural distinctiveness: Nations that preserved their cultural identity while pragmatically engaging with larger powers, such as Thailand and Finland, maintained greater resilience.
3. Economic adaptability: Powers that developed diverse economic relationships, such as Venice and Byzantium, gained leverage for diplomatic manoeuvring.
4. Institutional continuity: States with stable institutions capable of consistent policy implementation across leadership transitions sustained bamboo diplomacy more effectively.

Failure Patterns

Conversely, historical failures of bamboo-like approaches often resulted from:

1. Overcommitment: States that eventually aligned too closely with one significant power often suffered when that power’s fortunes declined, as seen in numerous Eastern European states between World War I and World War II.
2. Domestic division: Internal factionalism, aligned with different external powers, undermined effective balancing (as seen in Poland before the partitions).
3. Resource constraints: States lacking sufficient economic or military capabilities to maintain a minimum level of deterrence were eventually subjugated, despite diplomatic efforts (as seen in various Southeast Asian kingdoms during colonisation).
4. Geographic vulnerability: Nations with indefensible borders or positioned at critical strategic junctures face greater challenges (e.g., Poland, Korea, buffer states in Central Asia).

Contemporary Relevance

Vietnam’s bamboo diplomacy represents a modern refinement of these historical approaches, adapted to a complex multipolar environment, unlike many historical precedents that operated under more rigid imperial systems. Modern bamboo diplomacy benefits from international institutions, economic interdependence, and nuclear deterrence that create more space for smaller powers to manoeuvre.

The renewed relevance of bamboo diplomacy suggests a historical cycle: during periods of stable hegemony (Pax Romana, Pax Britannica, Pax Americana), alignment strategies predominate. During transitional periods with multiple competing powers, the ability to adapt like bamboo becomes increasingly valuable for smaller states.

Vietnam’s approach, building on Thailand’s historical success and incorporating lessons from other historical examples, offers an evolved version of this time-tested strategy—one particularly suited to an era where great power competition is intensifying while outright hegemony remains elusive.

Bamboo Diplomacy and China’s Tariff Situation

Bamboo diplomacy has complex implications for China in the current tariff environment, offering both advantages and limitations.

Potential Benefits to China

Diversified Economic Partnerships, Vietnam, and other countries practising bamboo diplomacy maintain economic relationships with multiple powers rather than aligning exclusively with either the US or China. This creates opportunities for China to maintain economic engagement even as US-led trade restrictions intensify. China can leverage these relationships as pressure relief valves for its exports and supply chains.

Strategic Buffers Countries practising bamboo diplomacy resist being drawn into exclusive economic or security blocs. This benefits China by preventing the formation of a cohesive anti-China economic coalition across Asia. By maintaining working relationships with these “middle position” countries, China preserves economic access and diplomatic influence beyond US tariff walls.

Alternative Trade Networks China can utilise bamboo diplomacy practitioners to develop parallel trade arrangements that circumvent US-imposed restrictions. For example, Vietnam’s simultaneous engagement with both China and the US enables complex supply chains, where Chinese components may be incorporated into Vietnamese exports to the US market, potentially circumventing some tariff impacts.

Limitations and Challenges

Limited Alignment The core principle of bamboo diplomacy is avoiding exclusive alignment with any single power. While this prevents countries from joining US-led economic isolation measures against China, it also means these countries won’t fully align with Chinese economic initiatives, such as the Belt and Road, when doing so might antagonise the US.

Transhipment Scrutiny The US and other Western powers have become increasingly vigilant about “tariff dodging” through transhipment via third countries. Vietnam has faced particular scrutiny as Chinese goods are sometimes minimally processed in Vietnam before being exported to the US as “Vietnamese” products. This has led to increased enforcement mechanisms that limit the effectiveness of using bamboo diplomacy as a tariff workaround.

Independent Policy Development Countries, Such as those practising bamboo diplomacy, make decisions based on their own national interests rather than aligning with Chinese objectives. Vietnam, for instance, maintains its own industrial development priorities and will compete directly with China in specific manufacturing sectors rather than serving as a complementary economy.

Current Examples

Vietnam’s response to US-China tariff tensions exemplifies these dynamics. While maintaining extensive economic cooperation with China, Vietnam has also benefited from the relocation of manufacturing as companies seek to diversify their production beyond China. This demonstrates how bamboo diplomacy serves Vietnam’s interests first rather than necessarily advancing Chinese economic objectives.

Similarly, Singapore’s “equidistant diplomacy” entails maintaining extensive trade with China while also deepening economic partnerships with the US, Japan, and Europe, thereby ensuring routes for Chinese trade without becoming overly dependent on Chinese markets.

Conclusion

Bamboo diplomacy presents a mixed picture for China’s tariff situation. While it prevents complete economic isolation by maintaining channels for Chinese engagement throughout Asia, it doesn’t offer China reliable partners that will consistently prioritise Chinese interests over their own or over relations with other powers. The ultimate value to China depends on how skillfully China can navigate these relationships while accepting their inherent limitations.

The effectiveness of bamboo diplomacy in mitigating tariff impacts is contingent on the specific bilateral relationships China maintains with each practising country, the scope and enforcement of US-led tariff regimes, and the continued economic value that China can offer these middle-position countries.

Summary of “3 takeaways from Singapore leaders’ blockbuster foreign policy speeches”

This opinion piece by Bhavan Jaipragas, deputy opinion editor at The Straits Times, analyses recent foreign policy speeches by Singapore’s top two political leaders against the backdrop of an upcoming general election on May 3, 2025. The article identifies three main takeaways:

1. Clear-eyed perspective on global transition:
   • Singapore’s leadership rejects simplistic interpretations of the changing world order
   • They don’t view America’s retreat as automatically crowning China as the new leader
   • They reject optimistic views about a comfortable multipolar balance
   • PM Wong noted that “nobody can tell” what world order we’re transitioning toward
   • The speeches acknowledge growing global fragmentation and disorder
2. Commitment to multilateralism:
   • While the US is reportedly reducing diplomatic engagement, Singapore is moving in the opposite direction
   • Singapore is working with like-minded partners to preserve multilateral frameworks
   • Specific initiatives include leadership in UN negotiations, establishing financing partnerships, and creating a Development Partnership Unit
   • Singapore is reinforcing ASEAN integration and expanding its global diplomatic presence
3. Political stability is linked to diplomatic strength:
   • Senior Minister Lee argued that Singapore needs a strong government to maintain influence globally
   • While acknowledging the opposition’s legitimate role, Lee warned that too many opposition MPS could weaken governance
   • This raises a key election question about whether a more prominent opposition presence would undermine Singapore’s foreign policy effectiveness.

The article frames the May 3 election as presenting a “Goldilocks problem” for voters regarding the optimal balance of ruling party and opposition representation.

In-Depth Analysis of Singapore’s Foreign Policy Speeches

Context of the Speeches

The speeches were delivered at a critical juncture:

• Approaching a general election in Singapore (scheduled for May 3, 2025)
• During a period of significant global order transformation
• Under the presidency of Donald Trump, who has adopted policies described as erratic and transactional
• Amid growing tensions between the US and China

Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s Position (April 14, 2025)

View on Great Power Competition

Lee appears to have presented a pragmatic assessment of the US-China relationship, characterising it as one where American policymakers “are trying very hard to stay ahead of China and to prevent China from overtaking them.” This suggests Singapore recognises the competitive rather than cooperative nature of current US-China relations.

Assessment of US Foreign Policy

Lee highlighted a fundamental shift in US trade policy under Trump, moving away from the Most Favoured Nation principle toward reciprocal trade agreements, including the use of tariffs. His metaphor of “arm wrestling” captures the essence of this approach – bilateral, power-based negotiations rather than rules-based multilateralism.

Domestic-International Policy Connection

Perhaps most significantly, Lee explicitly linked domestic politics to international effectiveness: “You need to have a good government, an effective government, a strong government, in order to take care of Singapore. And it has to be strong domestically, in order to be strong internationally.”

Prime Minister Lawrence Wong’s Position (April 16, 2025)

Global Order Assessment

Wong offered a sobering analysis of the transitional state of world affairs: “America is stepping back from its traditional role as the guarantor of order and the world’s policeman. But neither China nor any other country is willing – or able to – fill the vacuum.”

His observation that “nations are turning inward, prioritising their own narrow interests” suggests Singapore sees growing nationalism as a threat to global cooperation.

Multilateral Engagement Strategy

Wong outlined Singapore’s concrete response to this challenging environment:

• Leading UN negotiations through Ambassador Rena Lee on the High Seas Treaty
• Creating Financing Asia’s Transition Partnership for decarbonization
• Establishing a Development Partnership Unit within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
• Reinforcing ASEAN integration
• Expanding diplomatic missions in Africa and Latin America

Themes Across Both Speeches

1. Rejection of Simplistic Narratives

Both leaders appear to reject simplistic interpretations of global shifts:

• They don’t view China as automatically assuming global leadership
• They’re skeptical of optimistic views about an organized multipolar order
• They acknowledge the messiness and unpredictability of the current transition

2. Small State Vulnerability

The speeches reflect Singapore’s unique vulnerability as a small state in a world where power is increasingly determining outcomes. When “the rule of law gives way to the law of the jungle,” Singapore faces existential challenges.

3. Commitment to Rules-Based Order

Despite (or perhaps because of) these challenges, Singapore is doubling down on multilateralism and international law, precisely when more considerable powers are retreating from these commitments.

4. Adaptive Pragmatism

Singapore’s approach appears to strike a balance between realism about power dynamics and a commitment to principles, maintaining strong relations with both the US and China while seeking to strengthen international rules.

Strategic Implications

1. Hedging Strategy: Singapore appears to be maintaining a sophisticated hedging strategy, striking a balance between its relations with significant powers and its investments in multilateral institutions.
2. Influence Maximisation: By taking leadership roles in specialised international negotiations and forums, Singapore is attempting to maximise its influence despite its small size.
3. Network Building: The emphasis on expanding diplomatic presence and strengthening ties with like-minded states suggests Singapore is building coalitions to enhance its security in an uncertain environment.
4. Domestic-International Nexus: The explicit connection between domestic political stability and international effectiveness highlights how Singapore’s leaders perceive foreign policy as inextricably linked to domestic governance.

Conclusion

These speeches appear to present a clear-eyed, pragmatic assessment of global trends coupled with a principled commitment to international cooperation. They reflect Singapore’s distinctive approach to foreign policy – combining realism about power with idealism about rules, adapting to changing circumstances while maintaining core principles, and leveraging its limited resources to maximize international influence.

The speeches appear to be designed not only to articulate Singapore’s foreign policy but also to educate Singaporeans about the challenging international environment and the importance of political stability in navigating these waters—a message with clear electoral implications.

Projecting Implications and Solutions for Singapore, ASEAN, and Asia

Projected Implications

For Singapore

Short-term Implications:

1. Economic vulnerability to US tariffs and trade policies under Trump’s administration
2. Diplomatic pressure to choose sides in the US-China competition
3. Defense posture adjustments as US commitment to regional security appears less certain
4. Reduced policy predictability affecting investment decisions and economic planning

Long-term Implications:

1. Structural economic challenges as the rules-based trading system continues to erode
2. Increased costs of autonomy – maintaining independence will require a more significant investment in defence and diplomacy.
3. Democratic resilience tests – balancing strong governance with political pluralism
4. Strategic recalibration – rethinking Singapore’s place in a less stable world order

For ASEAN

Short-term Implications:

1. Cohesion under pressure as member states respond differently to US-China tensions
2. Economic disruption from global trade tensions and supply chain restructuring
3. Heightened sovereignty concerns with great powers increasingly assertive in the region
4. Institutional relevance challenges as power-based rather than rules-based interactions prevail

Long-term Implications:

1. Identity crisis – questioning ASEAN centrality in regional architecture
2. Developmental divergence – widening gaps between more and less developed members
3. Multilateral erosion – weakening of ASEAN’s consensus-based decision-making model
4. Strategic realignment – potential formation of sub-regional blocs based on great power alignment

For Broader Asia

Short-term Implications:

1. Security environment deterioration with increased military buildups and tension
2. Economic fragmentation into competing trade and technology spheres
3. Political polarization along US-China lines affecting domestic politics in many countries
4. Resource competition intensification for energy, water, and other critical resources

Long-term Implications:

1. New regional hierarchies are emerging as power redistribution continues
2. Institutional transformation of existing regional forums or creation of new ones
3. Economic development model shifts away from export-oriented growth
4. Identity reconfiguration around Asian rather than Western norms and institutions

Solutions and Strategic Responses

For Singapore

Immediate Solutions:

1. Economic diversification acceleration – reducing dependency on single markets
2. Defence modernisation and partnerships – enhancing self-reliance while maintaining security relationships
3. Digital infrastructure investment to maintain a competitive edge
4. Diplomatic agility enhancement – creating flexible response capabilities to navigate rapidly changing power dynamics

Long-term Solutions:

1. Strategic autonomy reinforcement through broadened international partnerships beyond traditional allies
2. Governance innovation to maintain effectiveness while accommodating greater political diversity
3. Specialised diplomacy development in emerging domains like climate, technology, and cybersecurity
4. Human capital transformation through education reform, with a focus on adaptability.

For ASEAN

Immediate Solutions:

1. Internal coherence strengthening through frank discussions about US-China pressures
2. Functional cooperation deepening in non-contentious areas (disaster management, public health)
3. ASEAN-led dialogue expansion to include more inclusive security discussions
4. Economic integration acceleration to strengthen intra-ASEAN resilience

Long-term Solutions:

1. Institutional reform to allow more flexible decision-making beyond strict consensus
2. Strategic autonomy doctrine development articulates principles for collective independence.
3. Economic community deepening through more substantial regulatory harmonisation and connectivity.
4. Identity reinforcement through enhanced cultural and educational exchanges

For Broader Asia

Immediate Solutions:

1. Inclusive dialogue mechanisms that engage both US and China
2. Regional financial architecture strengthening to reduce dependency on Western institutions
3. Crisis management protocols establishment for potential flashpoints
4. Supply chain resilience coordination to manage economic disruption

Long-term Solutions:

1. Multilateral frameworks reinforcement that emphasize rules over power
2. Regional identity cultivation that transcends great power competition
3. Common prosperity vision development focused on shared regional development goals
4. Epistemological independence – developing Asian approaches to international relations beyond Western theoretical frameworks

Strategic Recommendations for Key Issues

Managing US-China Competition

1. Issue-based coalitions – forming different groupings for different challenges rather than bloc politics
2. Strategic ambiguity maintenance – avoiding explicit alignment while preserving relationships with both powers
3. Functional leadership assumption in domains vacated by great powers
4. Normative entrepreneurship – proactively developing new norms for emerging domains

Economic Resilience

1. Supply chain reorganization emphasizing regional integration and strategic redundancy
2. Financial architecture diversification reducing dollar dependency while maintaining access
3. Technology sovereignty enhancement in critical domains
4. Sustainable development prioritization as a unifying regional goal

Security Architecture

1. Minilateral security arrangements complementing but not replacing broader frameworks
2. Military transparency mechanisms to reduce miscalculation risks
3. Domain-specific cooperation (maritime, cyber, space) where consensus is possible
4. Human security emphasis broadening security beyond traditional military concerns

Identity and Values

1. Asian values recalibration – defining regional identity beyond opposition to Western norms
2. Inclusive civilization narrative that accommodates diversity while emphasizing shared heritage
3. Next-generation leadership cultivation with regional rather than merely national outlooks
4. Public diplomacy enhancement to build popular support for regionalism

The fundamental strategic challenge for Singapore, ASEAN, and Asia more broadly appears to be maintaining autonomy and prosperity amid great power competition while simultaneously investing in rules and institutions that might eventually form the basis of a more stable regional order when the current period of transition and uncertainty eventually settles.

Analyzing the Shift from Pro-West to Intra-Asia Focus in Singapore’s Leadership

Based on the article, there are indications of a subtle but significant evolution in Singapore’s foreign policy orientation between former Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (now Senior Minister) and current Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. While maintaining Singapore’s traditional balanced approach, their speeches suggest an emerging emphasis on intra-Asian relationships without abandoning Western partnerships.

Diplomatic and Trade Orientation Shifts

From PM Lee to PM Wong: Continuity with Evolution

PM Lee’s Approach:

• Historically maintained a careful balance between US and China
• Emphasized the importance of the US-led rules-based order
• Saw Singapore’s prosperity as fundamentally linked to global trade architecture
• Focused on Singapore positioning itself as a bridge between East and West

PM Wong’s Emerging Emphasis:

• Recognizes the declining reliability of the Western-led order
• Places greater focus on developing regional mechanisms and partnerships
• Emphasizes Singapore’s expanded diplomatic engagement in Africa and Latin America
• Creates institutional structures specifically for intra-Asian cooperation (like the Financing Asia’s Transition Partnership)

Evidence of the Shift

1. Institutional Initiatives: PM Wong’s creation of specialized units focused on Asian development and transition suggests a strategic reorientation toward regional solutions.
2. Diplomatic Expansion: While PM Lee emphasized traditional diplomatic channels, Wong’s plan to establish new missions in Africa and Latin America suggests a more diversified approach less centered on Western partnerships.
3. ASEAN Centrality: Both leaders value ASEAN, but Wong’s emphasis on reinforcing ASEAN integration appears more prominent, potentially reflecting a greater focus on regional solutions.
4. Multilateral Approach: Wong’s emphasis on forging connections between ASEAN and the European Union suggests he views regional blocs as increasingly important units in international relations.
5. Resource Allocation: The establishment of a Development Partnership Unit within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs represents a concrete institutional commitment to expanding Singapore’s role in regional development.

Driving Factors Behind This Evolution

1. US Unpredictability: Trump’s erratic policies and America’s retreat from global leadership reduce the reliability of Western partnerships.
2. Economic Reality: Asia’s growing economic importance makes intra-regional trade and investment increasingly vital.
3. Strategic Autonomy: Greater regional integration provides more options beyond reliance on Western security frameworks.
4. Generational Shift: PM Wong represents a new generation with potentially different perspectives on Asian identity and regional integration.
5. Adaptive Response: This shift may reflect Singapore’s pragmatic adaptation to changing global power dynamics rather than ideological preference.

Balancing Elements – Not an Either/Or Proposition

It’s important to note that neither leader appears to be advocating abandonment of Western relationships. Instead, the shift seems to be one of degree and emphasis:

1. Hedging Strategy: Both leaders adhere to Singapore’s classic hedging approach, maintaining a neutral stance that avoids exclusive alignment with any power bloc.
2. Rules-Based Advocacy: Both remain committed to international law and multilateral institutions.
3. Security Relationships: Neither suggests diminishing Singapore’s security relationships with the US and other Western partners.
4. Value Alignment: Neither speech indicates a move away from Singapore’s traditional values regarding rules-based trade and international relations.

Future Trajectory and Implications

If this subtle shift continues to develop, we might expect:

1. Investment Prioritisation: Greater resources directed toward ASEAN integration and regional institutions
2. Economic Initiatives: More Singapore-led initiatives for regional financial architecture and development
3. Diplomatic Balance: Continued engagement with the West but with increased emphasis on regional autonomy
4. Institutional Leadership: Singapore positioning itself as an architect of new regional arrangements rather than primarily as a beneficiary of the existing order
5. Cultural Diplomacy: Greater emphasis on Asian values and shared regional heritage alongside universal principles

This evolution appears less a dramatic pivot and more a strategic recalibration, recognising that in a world where Western-led institutions are under strain, Singapore’s interests may be increasingly secured through deeper regional engagement while maintaining its traditional balanced approach to great power relations.

Continuity and Evolution in Singapore’s Diplomatic Approach: From PM Lee to PM Wong

Core Continuities

Despite the leadership transition from Lee Hsien Loong to Lawrence Wong, several fundamental principles remain consistent in Singapore’s diplomatic approach:

1. Pragmatic Realism

Both leaders:

• Acknowledge the realities of power politics while seeking to mitigate its effects
• Recognise Singapore’s vulnerability as a small state
• Prioritise national interest over ideological commitments
• Make clear-eyed assessments of global trends without wishful thinking

2. Commitment to Rules-Based Order

Both leaders:

• Advocate for a predictable international environment based on rules rather than raw power.
• Support multilateral institutions that constrain great power behaviour
• Recognise the existential importance of international law for small states
• Work to preserve elements of the existing order even as it undergoes transformation

3. Strategic Independence

Both leaders:

• Maintain Singapore’s freedom to make sovereign decisions without external dictation
• Resist pressure to formally align with either the US or China
• Build diverse partnerships to maximize strategic options
• Emphasize the importance of “being friends with all” while avoiding entanglements

4. Domestic-International Linkage

Both leaders:

• Explicitly connect domestic stability to international effectiveness
• View foreign policy as an extension of domestic governance
• Emphasize that Singapore’s diplomatic weight derives from its internal success
• Frame foreign policy decisions in terms of direct impact on Singaporeans’ well-being

Significant Evolutions

1. More Challenging Balancing Act

• PM Wong’s acknowledgement that maintaining balance “will get harder” represents a more explicit public recognition of increasing difficulties
• The statement that avoiding being “squeezed by both sides” will require “agility, vigilance and skilful diplomacy” suggests a more complex diplomatic environment
• Recognition that the entire society must be “principled and act in Singapore’s interest” indicates awareness of new foreign influence challenges

2. Greater Emphasis on Domestic Cohesion

• Wong’s explicit focus on uniting Singaporeans behind foreign policy represents a heightened emphasis on domestic considerations.
• The call for “more active engagement between the Government and the people” reflects concern about potential internal divisions on international issues.
• Recognition that “it will be even more challenging if people within the country are not united” acknowledges the domestic vulnerability dimension.

3. More Direct Economic Security Focus

• The creation of an “economic resilience task force” signals a more institutionalised approach to economic security.
• More explicit discussion about US dollar dependence and the need for diversification reflects new concerns about financial weaponisation
• Increased focus on regional economic integration as a buffer against global instability

4. More Explicit Public Communication

• Wong’s remarks demonstrate greater transparency about the challenges Singapore faces
• More direct acknowledgement of the “dangerous and fragmented world” than previous diplomatic language typically provided
• Greater emphasis on explaining foreign policy rationales to citizens

Analysis of Significance

The current approach represents an evolution rather than a revolution in Singapore’s foreign policy. The foundational principles established during Lee Kuan Yew’s era and continued through subsequent governments remain intact. However, Singapore’s leadership clearly recognises that implementing these principles has become more difficult in a more fractured global environment.

The most significant shift appears to be in the domestic dimension of foreign policy. PM Wong’s emphasis on national unity suggests concern that foreign policy could become a source of internal division, as has occurred in many Western democracies. This represents an adaptation to new challenges in information warfare and foreign influence operations.

The continued focus on ASEAN shows recognition that Singapore’s best hedge against great power competition remains regional solidarity, even with ASEAN’s limitations. The explicit discussion of economic diversification strategies indicates greater concern about economic weaponization in great power competition.

Overall, Singapore’s foreign policy demonstrates remarkable consistency in fundamental principles while showing pragmatic adaptation in implementation. This balance between continuity and evolution has been a hallmark of Singapore’s approach across multiple domains since independence, representing what might be called “adaptive consistency” in the face of changing circumstances.

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Moreover, take time to manage application permissions on your device thoughtfully. Review all installed apps and adjust their permissions through Maxthon Security and your phone’s settings interface. Do not grant access to sensitive information unless necessary.

Data backups should also not be overlooked. Regularly backing up essential files is vital for recovery in case data loss or breaches occur. Use cloud storage solutions or external drives for these backups, and ensure they are encrypted for added safety.

Lastly, make it a priority to educate yourself about best practices in mobile security; staying informed will empower you to protect not only your device but also the personal information stored within it.