Analysis of the India-Pakistan Military Exchange: Depth, Long-term Impact, and Solutions

The Recent Military Exchange

The May 7th, 2025 military exchange represents a concerning escalation in the long-standing India-Pakistan conflict. According to the article:

India launched missile strikes into Pakistan and Pakistani-controlled Kashmir
These strikes targeted what India claims were militant camps
The strikes were deeper into Pakistani territory than previous operations
Pakistan claims to have shot down several Indian warplanes, possibly using Chinese air-to-air missiles
Artillery duels along the Line of Control in Kashmir are intensifying and causing civilian casualties

This incident follows a terrorist attack on April 22nd that killed 26 civilians in Indian-controlled Kashmir. India claims to have intelligence intercepts linking Pakistani militants to the attack, while Pakistan denies any involvement.

Strategic Context and Changing Dynamics

What makes this exchange particularly concerning is how the power dynamics between the two nuclear neighbours have shifted:

Growing Power Asymmetry: India’s GDP is now ten times larger than Pakistan’s (compared to five times larger in 2000), giving India increasing military advantages.
Pakistan’s Internal Deterioration: Pakistan faces a rolling economic crisis, democratic institutions controlled by its military, and growing domestic terrorism (1,612 Pakistani civilians killed in 444 attacks in 2024 alone).
Military Modernisation: Both countries have upgraded their arsenals – India with French warplanes and enhanced drone capabilities, Pakistan with Chinese fighters and missiles (now sourcing 81% of its arms from China, up from 38% fifteen years ago).
Declining Western Engagement: Following the end of the War on Terror and the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan, Western powers are paying less attention to Pakistan, removing what was once a crucial diplomatic counterbalance.
China’s Growing Influence: China has become Pakistan’s primary patron and arms supplier, complicating the geopolitical landscape.

Long-term Impacts

If this conflict pattern continues or escalates further, several concerning outcomes become more likely:

Security Impacts

Risk of Nuclear Miscalculation: With each escalation, the risk grows that one side might misinterpret the other’s intentions or capabilities, potentially triggering a nuclear response.
Regional Destabilisation: Continued conflict could further destabilise an already fragile South Asian region, affecting Afghanistan, Iran, and Central Asian states.
Increased Militarization: Both nations will likely accelerate military spending and development, potentially triggering a more intense arms race.

Economic Impacts

Diverted Resources: Pakistan’s already struggling economy will suffer further as resources are channelled toward defence rather than development.
Investment Deterrence: Foreign investment in both countries, but particularly Pakistan, will be deterred by instability concerns.
Trade Disruption: Regional trade routes and economic corridors, including China’s Belt and Road Initiative investments, could be jeopardised.

Social and Political Impacts

Increased Nationalism: Prolonged tensions typically fuel nationalist sentiment in both countries, making diplomatic solutions harder to achieve.
Minority Vulnerability: Religious and ethnic minorities often face increased scrutiny and discrimination during periods of heightened tension.
Democratic Regression: Security concerns frequently justify restrictions on civil liberties and democratic processes, especially in Pakistan.

Potential Solutions

Addressing this conflict requires action at multiple levels:

Immediate De-escalation Measures

Military Hotlines: Enhancing direct communication channels between military commands to prevent misunderstandings during crises.
Third-party Observation: Deploying UN or other neutral observers along the Line of Control to monitor and report violations.
Joint Terrorism Investigation: Establishing a joint mechanism with international oversight to investigate terrorist incidents that either country blames on the other.

Medium-term Diplomatic Solutions

Renewed Dialogue: Reestablishing regular diplomatic dialogue focused initially on less contentious issues to build trust.
International Mediation: Using multilateral forums or trusted third parties to facilitate negotiations on security concerns.
Coordinated Terrorism Response: Developing joint protocols for addressing terrorist threats that affect both countries.

Long-term Structural Solutions

Pakistan’s Internal Reform: International support for Pakistan’s economic stabilisation and counterterrorism capabilities, conditioned on concrete action against militant groups.
Kashmir Autonomy: Both sides should consider granting greater autonomy to their respective portions of Kashmir, which would allow for increased cross-border civilian movement and trade.
Regional Economic Integration: Creating economic interdependence through regional trade agreements and infrastructure projects that benefit both nations.

The Role of International Actors

As the article suggests, several international actors could play constructive roles:

China: As Pakistan’s primary patron, China could pressure Pakistan to crack down on militant groups, particularly as Chinese citizens have been victims of terrorism in Pakistan.
Gulf States: Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar have historical ties with Pakistan but growing economic interests with India, giving them potential leverage.
International Financial Institutions: The IMF and anti-terrorist financing watchdogs could make assistance to Pakistan conditional on concrete action against terrorist groups.
United States: Despite reduced regional engagement, the U.S. still has significant diplomatic leverage to encourage dialogue and restraint.

Conclusion

The India-Pakistan conflict represents one of the world’s most dangerous flashpoints, with two nuclear powers caught in a cycle of provocation and response. While the current escalation may follow the familiar pattern of heating up and then cooling down, the article’s warning is apt: “sooner or later, luck will run out.”

Breaking this cycle requires addressing root causes: Pakistan must end its tolerance of militant groups operating from its territory, while India should reconsider its approach to administering Kashmir. International actors must recognise their responsibility in facilitating dialogue and creating incentives for both sides to pursue peace rather than conflict.

Imperial Overreach and Reactive Violence: Understanding the Cycle of Resistance to Western Dominance

The Mechanics of Modern Imperialism and Resistance

Imperial dynamics, while evolved from their colonial-era forms, continue to shape international relations and often provoke violent resistance from economically marginalised states. The contemporary manifestation of imperialism—characterized by economic domination, resource extraction, military presence, and cultural impositions—creates conditions where violence becomes rationalized as legitimate resistance by those who feel subjugated. When these dynamics are amplified by nationalist rhetoric like “Make America Great Again,” the cycle intensifies in predictable ways.

Economic Strangulation as a Modern Imperial Tool

Resource Extraction Without Development

Modern imperialism often operates through economic structures that:

Extract raw materials at suppressed prices
Restrict higher-value processing to Western economies
Create dependency relationships that limit sovereignty
Impose structural adjustment programs, reducing social services

The Starvation Effect

This economic stranglehold produces what can be termed a “starvation effect” in several dimensions:

Material Deprivation: Literal food insecurity in extreme cases
Development Starvation: Inability to build necessary infrastructure
Technological Starvation: Denied access to critical technologies
Financial Starvation: Debt traps and capital flight

When populations face these conditions, political extremism and violence gain legitimacy as resistance tactics rather than terrorism.

Historical Patterns of Resistance to Imperialism

Throughout history, imperial overreach has consistently generated violent blowback:

Anti-Colonial Movements: From the Algerian FLN to Vietnam’s resistance against France and America
Post-Colonial Insurgencies: Movements resisting continued economic domination after formal independence
Contemporary Militant Groups: Organisations that frame themselves as fighting Western economic hegemony

What unites these movements is their self-perception as legitimate resistance against external domination, not as terrorists or aggressors.

The Pakistan Case Study: Imperial Pressure and Strategic Violence

Pakistan exemplifies how imperial pressure creates conditions for strategic violence:

Historic Imperial Relations: From British colonial rule to Cold War instrumentalisation
Economic Vulnerability: Structural adjustment, trade limitations, conditional aid
Sovereignty Concerns: Drone campaigns, border violations, external pressure on internal politics
Strategic Response: Support for non-state actors as asymmetric leverage against larger powers

This dynamic explains Pakistan’s complex relationship with militant groups mentioned in the article—they represent low-cost strategic assets against perceived imperial pressure.

The Amplification Effect of Nationalist Rhetoric

Nationalistic slogans like “Make America Great Again” intensify these dynamics through several mechanisms:

Threat Perception

Such rhetoric signals intention to reassert dominance
It confirms narratives about Western imperial ambitions
It is interpreted as an existential threat requiring defensive measures

Legitimisation of Resistance

Nationalist rhetoric from powerful states validates reciprocal nationalism elsewhere.
It provides recruiting narratives for militant organisations
It justifies “defensive” violence as protection against aggression

Escalation Cycle

Nationalist rhetoric leads to more aggressive policies
These policies provoke more determined resistance
This resistance then “validates” the initial nationalist stance
The cycle continues with increasing intensity

The China Alternative and Its Implications

China has effectively positioned itself as an alternative to Western imperialism:

Strategic Patron: Offering military support without governance conditions
Economic Partner: Providing investment without (explicit) political demands
Sovereignty Advocate: Emphasizing non-interference rhetoric

This creates what some scholars call a “new imperial competition” where economically vulnerable states leverage rivalry to gain agency, often through militarization, exactly as Pakistan has done by sourcing 81% of its arms from China.

Breaking the Cycle: Alternative Approaches

More productive engagement would require:

Economic Justice

Fair trade terms rather than exploitative extraction
Technology transfer enabling higher-value production
Debt relief and financial system reforms

Sovereignty Respect

Recognition of legitimate security interests
Military restraint and border respect
Non-interference in internal political affairs

Multilateral Frameworks

Rules apply equally to powerful and vulnerable nations
International institutions with meaningful authority
Dispute resolution mechanisms with enforcement capacity

Conclusion: The Cost of Imperial Overreach

The violent resistance from states experiencing economic “starvation” is not irrational but strategically predictable. Nationalist rhetoric that emphasises dominance rather than partnership amplifies these dynamics by confirming narratives about imperial intent.

The India-Pakistan conflict described in the article represents just one manifestation of this broader pattern. Pakistan’s support for militant groups, while destabilising and ultimately self-destructive, follows a historical logic of asymmetric resistance to perceived domination. Breaking this cycle requires addressing the legitimate grievances at its core rather than simply demanding compliance backed by further economic pressure.

The lesson of history is clear: imperial overreach invariably produces violent resistance. The nationalist focus on unilateral dominance rather than mutual benefit only accelerates this dangerous cycle.

On May 7, several Asian airlines announced changes to their flight schedules, either rerouting or cancelling flights initially destined for Europe. This decision was made in response to escalating military tensions between India and Pakistan.

The conflict intensified as India launched attacks on Pakistan and the region of Pakistani-administered Kashmir. In retaliation, Pakistan claimed to have shot down five Indian fighter jets, marking the most severe confrontation between the two nuclear-armed countries in over twenty years.

As a precautionary measure, more than two dozen commercial flights altered their routes to avoid entering Pakistani airspace. Airlines prioritised passenger safety amid the uncertainty and potential risks posed by the conflict.

These changes have disrupted travellers, leading to delays and extended travel times. The situation remains volatile, with airlines closely monitoring developments in the region to determine further actions.

As reported by Flightradar24, 52 flights to or from Pakistan had been cancelled by the morning of May 7. The cancellations were a response to escalating tensions and safety concerns in the region.

In light of the ongoing conflict between India and Pakistan, Taiwan’s Eva Air announced adjustments to its flight routes. The airline stated it would reroute its flights to and from Europe to avoid the affected airspace for safety reasons.

The announcement had immediate financial implications. The airline’s shares fell by approximately 1.7 per cent, reflecting investor concern over potential disruptions and increased operational costs.

Eva Air provided specific details about the changes in a statement to Reuters. One flight originating from Vienna would be diverted back to the city. Meanwhile, a flight travelling from Taipei to Milan was scheduled for a stopover in Vienna to refuel before continuing on its journey.

Korean Air announced a change in its flight path for the Incheon-Dubai route, effective from May 7. The airline decided to adopt a southern trajectory that bypasses Pakistani airspace. Instead, the new route traverses over Myanmar, Bangladesh, and India. This change aims to enhance safety and operational efficiency amid regional tensions.

Meanwhile, Thai Airways has also adjusted its flight paths. Starting in the early hours of May 7, flights heading to Europe and South Asia will follow new routes. The airline alerted passengers that this alteration might lead to potential delays. These adjustments are part of a strategic response to regional geopolitical developments.

Both airlines are committed to maintaining passenger safety as a top priority. They are actively monitoring the situation and are prepared to make further changes if necessary. Passengers are advised to check for updates and plan accordingly.

Vietnam Airlines announced that the ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan have disrupted its flight schedules. The airline is currently assessing the situation and plans to release detailed information about alternative routes soon. Passengers are advised to stay updated for any changes.

Meanwhile, Taiwan’s China Airlines has implemented its contingency plan in response to the geopolitical unrest. The airline has taken several precautionary measures to ensure the safety of both passengers and crew members. However, they have not provided specific details about these actions.

As a result of the uncertainty, China Airlines experienced a significant drop in its stock value, with shares falling by more than 2 per cent. Additionally, the website for Taoyuan International Airport, located near Taipei, indicated that the China Airlines non-stop flight to London scheduled for May 7 has been cancelled. Passengers affected by this cancellation are encouraged to contact the airline for further assistance.

Several flights from India to Europe have recently been observed taking longer routes than usual. This change in flight paths is noteworthy and has caught the attention of aviation enthusiasts and industry experts alike.

For instance, Lufthansa flight LH761, which travels from Delhi to Frankfurt, deviated from its typical route on a recent journey. Instead of following its usual path, the aircraft veered right towards the Arabian Sea near Surat, a city in western India. As tracked by Flightradar24, this adjustment resulted in a longer journey compared to its flight on May 6.

The alteration in flight paths can be attributed to geopolitical factors impacting global air travel. Before Russia invaded Ukraine, many flights from Taiwan to Europe would traverse Russian airspace. However, following Taipei’s decision to join Western sanctions against Moscow, Taiwanese airlines are now prohibited from flying over Russia.

As a result, these airlines have had to adapt their routes, often opting to fly over India, Pakistan, and Central Asia instead. This change not only affects travel times but also highlights the complex interplay between international politics and aviation logistics.

Singapore’s Position in the India-China Power Dynamic

Singapore faces significant challenges in the evolving power dynamic between India and China, with several potential areas of risk:

Potential Losses for Singapore

Diplomatic Pressures

Forced Alignment: As competition intensifies, Singapore may face increasing pressure to “choose sides” on sensitive issues
Reduced Strategic Autonomy: Singapore’s traditional foreign policy independence could be constrained by great power competition
ASEAN Fragmentation: Divisions within ASEAN on how to approach India and China could weaken Singapore’s regional platform

Economic Vulnerabilities

Trade Diversion: Direct India-China commerce could bypass Singapore’s intermediary role
Investment Competition: Both powers may pressure Singapore businesses to prioritise their markets, creating difficult choices
Supply Chain Reconfiguration: New trade routes might reduce Singapore’s traditional role as a transhipment hub
Technology Standards: Competing ecosystems (Chinese vs US-India) could force Singapore to maintain costly parallel systems

Security Concerns

Naval Posture: Increased Indian maritime presence alongside Chinese activities creates navigation and security complications
Intelligence Pressures: Both powers may increase surveillance and intelligence activities in Singapore
Defence Cooperation Complications: Singapore’s security relationships could become more politically charged

Mitigating Factors

Despite these challenges, Singapore possesses significant advantages:

Historical Experience: Singapore has successfully navigated great power competition throughout its history
Economic Diversification: Established relationships with multiple power centres beyond just China and India
Governance Reputation: Respected for competence and incorruptibility by all significant powers
Strategic Value: Geographic position remains valuable regardless of power dynamics
Financial Sophistication: Capacity to create new economic mechanisms that operate across competing systems

Assessment

While Singapore faces real risks in the evolving India-China dynamic, the situation presents as much opportunity as threat. Singapore’s fundamental strengths—governance quality, strategic location, financial sophistication, and diplomatic credibility—remain valuable assets even as the regional power balance shifts.

Rather than seeing itself as potentially “losing” in this scenario, Singapore might better conceptualise its position as evolving from a primarily China-focused economic strategy to a more balanced approach that accommodates India’s rise while maintaining beneficial Chinese relations.

The greatest danger would be rigid adherence to existing patterns rather than strategic adaptation to the changing reality. Singapore’s historical adaptability suggests it is well-positioned to make this transition successfully.

Singapore-India Trade Relations: Historical Perspective

Singapore and India share deep historical trade connections that predate modern nation-states, but their formal economic relationship has evolved significantly over time:

Colonial and Early Independence Period (Pre-1990s)

Limited Engagement: Despite cultural connections, trade remained modest during India’s closed economic period
Commonwealth Framework: Relations structured primarily through British Commonwealth connections
Restricted Indian Economy: India’s protectionist policies limited bilateral trade opportunities
Modest Volumes: Trade primarily involved traditional commodities rather than higher-value goods

Economic Liberalization Period (1990s-2005)

India’s Opening: Following India’s 1991 economic reforms, Singapore was among the earliest to engage
Growing Recognition: Singapore identified India as a significant economic partner beyond traditional markets
Institutional Development: Formation of formal trade bodies and business councils
Early Investments: Singapore companies like PSA and DBS made pioneering investments in Indian infrastructure and banking

Strategic Partnership Phase (2005-2015)

CECA Implementation: Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement signed in 2005 – Singapore’s first such agreement with a South Asian nation
Investment Acceleration: Singapore emerged as one of the top foreign investors in India
Services Focus: Growth in financial services, IT, education, and logistics connections
Urban Development: Singapore expertise applied to Indian smart cities and planning initiatives

Current Deep Integration Phase (2015-Present)

Singapore as Gateway: Singapore was established as a primary access point for Indian companies entering ASEAN
Financial Integration: Singapore is a major center for Indian companies raising capital
Digital Economy: Partnerships in fintech, digital governance, and technology startups
Investment Position: Singapore is consistently among the top 3-4 foreign direct investors in India

Key Trade Statistics

Singapore ranks among India’s top 10 trading partners (typically between 6th and 10th position)
Bilateral trade reached approximately $30 billion in recent years
Singapore is typically India’s largest trade partner within ASEAN
Singapore’s investments in India significantly exceed the trade volume, highlighting its importance as a capital source

Comparative Context

China Comparison: Singapore-India trade remains substantially smaller than Singapore-China trade (approximately 20-25% of the China volume)
Growth Trajectory: India-Singapore trade has shown consistent growth, but from a much lower base
Sectoral Differences: Trade with India is more heavily weighted toward services compared to manufacturing-heavy China trade

Singapore’s historical approach to India has been characterised by early recognition of potential, strategic patience during India’s gradual economic opening, and positioning as a gateway and knowledge partner rather than just a trading counterpart.

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India-Pakistan Military Clash Escalates Tensions