Japan is expanding its security presence in Southeast Asia, with recent activities including:

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/japans-security-presence-in-asean-now-routine-as-fears-grow-of-china-gaining-sway-amid-us-apathy

Japanese warships visiting Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base (April 19)
PM Ishiba describing the Philippines as a “quasi-ally” (April 29)
Japan’s ongoing Official Security Assistance scheme provides military equipment to developing countries
The ninth annual Indo-Pacific Deployment exercise (April-November 2025)

This expansion comes amid concerns that:

China is increasing its influence in the region
President Trump has shown limited interest in ASEAN (mentioned as having skipped ASEAN summits during his first term)
China is presenting itself as a protector of the multilateral trading order following Trump’s “Liberation Day reciprocal tariffs” (April 2, 2025)

Japan’s approach is described as emphasising “empowerment rather than coercion,” with PM Ishiba visiting five ASEAN countries since taking office in October 2024
The article notes Japan’s concerns about President Xi Jinping’s recent tour of Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia (April 14-18), during which he appealed for an “Asian family” front against “unilateral bullying”.

Japan’s Expanding ASEAN Presence: Strategic Implications for Singapore

Japan’s Strategic Pivot in Response to US Disengagement

Japan’s enhanced security footprint in ASEAN represents a calculated strategic shift in response to the perceived power vacuum created by US disengagement under the Trump administration. This analysis examines the drivers, manifestations, and long-term implications for Singapore.

Key Drivers of Japan’s Expanded Regional Role

1. US Strategic Retreat
   • President Trump’s consistent absence from ASEAN summits signals diminished US prioritisation of Southeast Asia.
   • The “Liberation Day reciprocal tariffs” of April 2025 have accelerated concerns about US reliability as a stabilising force.
   • This retreat creates both opportunity and necessity for Japan to step forward.
2. China’s Strategic Advances
   • Xi Jinping’s strategic visits to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia showcased China’s “Asian family” narrative.
   • China’s economic leverage and infrastructure investments (like the Ream Naval Base in Cambodia) create dependencies.
   • Beijing’s portrayal as a defender of the multilateral order despite past economic coercion practices
3. Japan’s Evolving Identity
   • Progressive shedding of wartime aggressor identity constraints
   • Constitutional pacifism is giving way to “smart power defence diplomacy”
   • PM Ishiba’s government is continuing the security normalisation trajectory

Japan’s Multi-Pronged Engagement Strategy

1. Military Diplomacy
   • Port calls (like the MSDF minesweepers at Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base)
   • Indo-Pacific Deployment exercises (nine annual iterations and expanding)
   • Military intelligence sharing agreements (as pursued with the Philippines)
2. Security Assistance
   • Official Security Assistance (OSA) scheme providing military equipment
   • Capacity building for coast guards and maritime domain awareness
   • Non-threatening cooperation focused on humanitarian assistance and disaster relief
3. Diplomatic Charm Offensive
   • PM Ishiba has been visiting five ASEAN nations since October 2024
   • Calibrated approach avoiding forcing countries to “pick sides”
   • Leveraging Japan’s position as ASEAN’s “most trusted partner”

Long-Term Implications for Singapore

Positive Implications

1. Enhanced Strategic Autonomy
   • Japan provides Singapore and ASEAN with an additional balancing partner
   • Reduces overdependence on either the US or China
   • Aligns with Singapore’s long-standing “no exclusive alignment” approach
2. Security Architecture Reinforcement
   • Japan’s presence strengthens the regional security architecture
   • Supports Singapore’s interest in maintaining maritime security and freedom of navigation
   • Former PM Lee Hsien Loong’s statements (2022 and April 2025) explicitly welcomed Japan’s security participation
3. Economic Diversification
   • Potential for deeper economic integration with Japan
   • Alternative source of investment and technological cooperation
   • Counterbalance to growing economic dependencies on China

Challenges and Considerations

1. Managing China’s Response
   • Singapore must carefully navigate between welcoming Japan while not antagonizing China.
   • Risk of being perceived as taking sides if Japan-China tensions escalate
   • Economic vulnerability to potential Chinese displeasure
2. US Re-engagement Scenarios
   • Possibility of future US policy shifts creating complex three-way dynamics
   • Singapore would need to recalibrate if US suddenly recommits to ASEAN
   • Potential for conflicting security arrangements
3. Japan’s Capacity Limitations
   • Questions about Japan’s economic capacity to sustain long-term regional commitments
   • Demographic challenges affecting Japan’s future power projection capabilities
   • Potential for raised expectations that cannot be fulfilled

Singapore’s Strategic Positioning

1. Facilitator Role
   • Singapore is positioned to serve as a convener between Japan, ASEAN, and other stakeholders.
   • Continuation of Singapore’s traditional role as a neutral diplomatic platform
   • Opportunity to shape the emerging regional security architecture

1. Security Partnership Expansion
   • Potential deepening of Singapore-Japan defence cooperation
   • Building on existing frameworks like the Japan-Singapore Partnership Programme
   • Expanding intelligence sharing and interoperability
2. Knowledge and Technology Transfer
   • Opportunities for enhanced collaboration in cybersecurity, AI and emerging technologies
   • Maritime domain awareness technologies and systems
   • Clean energy and critical infrastructure resilience

Conclusion: A Calibrated Approach

The long-term impact of Japan’s increased ASEAN presence on Singapore will depend on several factors:

1. The sustainability of Japan’s commitment amid its domestic economic and demographic challenges
2. The degree of US re-engagement or continued disengagement from the region
3. China’s response to Japan’s expanded regional footprint
4. Singapore’s diplomatic skills in maximising benefits while minimising risks

Singapore stands to benefit from Japan’s increased presence as it creates strategic space and reduces dependency on any single central power. However, this requires careful diplomatic management to avoid becoming entangled in great power competition. Singapore’s long-term interests are best served by encouraging Japan’s constructive regional engagement while maintaining its traditional posture of principled neutrality and pragmatic engagement with all major powers.

Japan’s security normalisation process and its expanded ASEAN engagement represent both opportunities and challenges for Singapore. They require nuanced policy responses that preserve flexibility while enhancing strategic resilience in an increasingly complex regional environment.

Singapore’s Balancing Strategy: Navigating China-Japan Tensions Long-Term

Singapore’s Strategic Imperative

Singapore faces a delicate long-term challenge in balancing relations between China and Japan as regional tensions evolve. This challenge is particularly acute as Japan expands its security presence in ASEAN while China pursues its regional ambitions. Singapore’s small size, strategic location, and trade-dependent economy make effective balancing crucial for its survival and prosperity.

Core Principles of Singapore’s Balancing Approach

1. Principled Neutrality with Pragmatic Engagement

Singapore’s approach will likely continue to be guided by its foundational principle of not choosing sides while maintaining substantive relationships with both powers:

• Economic pragmatism: Maintaining deep economic ties with both China (Singapore’s largest trading partner) and Japan (major investor and technology partner)
• Political neutrality: Avoiding statements or positions that could be perceived as explicitly favouring either power’s core interests
• Selective engagement: Cooperating with both powers in different domains based on Singapore’s interests rather than external pressure

2. Multi-dimensional Engagement Strategy

Singapore will maintain parallel tracks of engagement across multiple domains:

• Economic track: Deepening trade and investment relationships with both powers simultaneously
• Security track: Calibrated security cooperation that addresses Singapore’s needs without triggering sensitivities
• Diplomatic track: Maintaining open channels of communication at all levels with both Beijing and Tokyo

Specific Long-Term Balancing Mechanisms

1. Institutional Multiplicity

Singapore will likely continue leveraging multiple regional frameworks to dilute bilateral tensions:

• ASEAN-centred mechanisms: Emphasising ASEAN’s centrality in regional architecture
• Minilateral groupings: Participating in various smaller groupings that include either China or Japan, but rarely both
• Global forums: Using UN, G20, WTO and other global platforms to engage both powers in multilateral settings

2. Strategic Ambiguity on Sensitive Issues

• South China Sea disputes: Maintaining principled positions on international law without directly condemning China
• Taiwan question: Acknowledging One-China policy while maintaining unofficial ties with Taiwan
• Japan’s security normalization: Supporting rules-based regional order without explicitly endorsing Japan’s remilitarization

3. Economic Hedging

• Supply chain diversification: Reducing vulnerability to economic coercion by either power
• Strategic sector protection: Limiting dependencies in critical technologies and infrastructure
• Balanced trade agreements: Maintaining comparable economic frameworks with both powers

Singapore’s Specific Approaches to Each Power

Managing Relations with China

1. Acknowledge core interests while maintaining independence
   • Recognising China’s territorial concerns without endorsing all claims
   • Maintaining autonomy in foreign policy decisions affecting Chinese interests
2. Leverage cultural and historical connections
   • Building on shared cultural heritage and established people-to-people ties
   • Using Singapore’s understanding of Chinese perspectives as diplomatic capital
3. Participate selectively in Chinese initiatives
   • Engaging with the Belt and Road Initiative, which aligns with Singapore’s interests
   • Maintaining involvement in AIIB and other China-led multilateral institutions

Managing Relations with Japan

1. Support Japan’s constructive regional role within bounds
   • Welcoming Japan’s economic and diplomatic engagement
   • Encouraging Japan’s security contributions while subtly discouraging provocative postures
2. Deepen economic complementarities
   • Focusing on high-value technological partnerships and investment
   • Emphasising Japan’s role in Singapore’s advanced manufacturing and innovation ecosystem
3. Calibrated security cooperation
   • Continuing joint military exercises and training
   • Sharing expertise in maritime security while avoiding arrangements that could antagonise China

Long-Term Strategic Tools

1. Singapore as Neutral Convenor

Singapore can position itself as a trusted meeting ground for both powers:

• Hosting track 1.5 and track 2 dialogues between Chinese and Japanese officials and experts
• Facilitating bilateral engagement during periods of heightened tension
• Providing “good offices” for confidential discussions on sensitive issues

2. Issue-Based Coalition Building

Singapore can form flexible coalitions around specific issues:

• Maritime security: Working with Japan on non-contentious aspects
• Climate change: Partnering with China on green technology
• Digital economy: Collaborating with both powers on different elements of the digital transformation

3. Intellectual Leadership

Singapore can contribute to regional stability through thought leadership:

• Developing frameworks for peaceful coexistence between the powers
• Promoting norms that constrain great power competition
• Articulating ASEAN perspectives that offer alternatives to US-China-Japan-centric views

Challenges and Risk Mitigation

1. Pressure Points and Vulnerabilities

• Economic leverage: Singapore’s trade dependency creates vulnerability to economic pressure
• Security expectations: Increasing expectations from Japan for more precise security alignment
• Sovereignty concerns: Potential Chinese perceptions of Singapore as too close to Japan

2. Balancing Strategies Under Pressure

• Diversification: Further diversifying economic partnerships beyond China and Japan
• Coalition-building: Strengthening ties with middle powers like South Korea, Australia, India
• Strategic ambiguity: Maintaining constructive ambiguity on the most sensitive issues

3. Domestic Resilience

• Social cohesion: Preventing external tensions from affecting Singapore’s multicultural harmony
• Public education: Building sophisticated public understanding of the balancing imperative
• Institutional capacity: Strengthening diplomatic capabilities to manage complex relationships

Long-Term Success Factors

Singapore’s long-term success in balancing China-Japan tensions will depend on:

1. Maintaining credibility with both powers by demonstrating consistency and reliability
2. Preserving policy independence despite increasing pressure to choose sides
3. Contributing value to both relationships through unique capabilities and insights
4. Building resilience against coercion through domestic unity and international partnerships
5. Avoiding being perceived as leveraging tensions for Singapore’s advantage

Conclusion: The Adaptive Balancing Approach

Singapore’s long-term strategy will need to be characterised by what might be called “adaptive balancing” – maintaining core principles while flexibly adjusting tactical approaches as regional dynamics evolve. This requires sophisticated diplomacy, economic resilience, and domestic consensus about Singapore’s place in a complex regional order.

The most successful balancing strategy will be neither perfectly equidistant (which is practically impossible) nor obviously tilted, but rather based on Singapore’s independent assessment of its national interests in each specific context. By maintaining this principles-based yet flexible approach, Singapore can navigate China-Japan tensions while preserving its sovereignty, prosperity, and security in an increasingly challenging regional environment.

Why Balancing China-Japan Tensions Benefits Singapore More Than US-China Balancing

Distinctive Features of the China-Japan Balancing Paradigm

Singapore’s approach to balancing China-Japan tensions offers unique long-term strategic advantages compared to the more commonly discussed US-China balancing act. This distinction is critical for several structural, geographic, and historical reasons.

1. Regional vs. Extra-Regional Dynamics

China-Japan Balance:

• Geographic proximity: Both powers are within Singapore’s immediate regional ecosystem
• Integrated supply chains: Singapore is deeply embedded in East Asian production networks
• Cultural affinity: Shared Asian cultural contexts facilitate Singapore’s intercultural diplomacy.

US-China Balance:

• The US remains geographically distant despite its regional presence
• US engagement fluctuates based on domestic political cycles
• Greater cultural and historical distance complicates Singapore’s mediating role

2. Economic Architecture Advantages

China-Japan Balance:

• Complementary economic strengths: Japan’s advanced technology and China’s market scale offer Singapore diverse partnership models
• Regional economic frameworks: RCEP, CPTPP provide institutionalised economic engagement with both powers
• Currency diversification: Reduces Singapore’s dependence on the US dollar-dominated financial system

US-China Balance:

• Greater vulnerability to US-China trade tensions and supply chain decoupling
• Increased pressure to choose sides in technology standards and digital governance
• Exposure to weaponized economic tools (sanctions, export controls) wielded in US-China competition

3. Power Asymmetry Management

China-Japan Balance:

• More balanced power distribution: Japan’s economic and technological strength creates genuine multipolarity
• Self-constraining factors: Both powers have limitations (Japan’s pacifist constitution, China’s regional reputation challenges)
• Multiple leverage points: Singapore can utilise various influence levers with both regional powers

US-China Balance:

• Stark power asymmetry limits Singapore’s room for manoeuvre
• Greater risk of becoming collateral damage in superpower competition
• Fewer leverage points due to the overwhelming scale difference

Strategic Autonomy Preservation

1. Policy Space Expansion

China-Japan Balance:

• Triangulation opportunities: Playing complementary roles in relations with both powers
• Issue-specific alignment: Flexibility to align with either power on different issues
• Identity flexibility: Ability to emphasise different aspects of Singapore’s identity depending on context

US-China Balance:

• Binary framing limits policy options (often reduced to being “pro-US” or “pro-China”)
• A greater ideological component constrains pragmatic engagement
• Heightened domestic sensitivity due to superpower politics

2. Regional Leadership Opportunities

China-Japan Balance:

• ASEAN centrality reinforcement: Singapore can champion ASEAN-led solutions to regional tensions
• Honest broker potential: Ability to facilitate China-Japan dialogue from a position of relative neutrality
• Institutional innovation: Opportunity to design new regional mechanisms that accommodate both powers

US-China Balance:

• ASEAN centrality undermined by US-China competition
• Diminished role as honest broker due to perceived security alignment with the US
• Less space for institutional innovation due to competing US and Chinese visions

Long-Term Strategic Benefits

1. Hedging Against US Disengagement

The China-Japan balancing paradigm provides critical insurance against US strategic retreats:

• Continuity of regional security architecture even during periods of US disengagement
• Less vulnerability to US policy shifts following election cycles
• Indigenous Asian security frameworks with greater staying power

2. Greater Diplomatic Flexibility

• Three-way engagement: Ability to work simultaneously with US, China, and Japan
• Multiple partnership configurations: Creating issue-specific coalitions
• Reduced binary pressures: Escaping the “with us or against us” dynamic

3. Development Model Sovereignty

• Policy space preservation: Greater ability to adopt elements from different development models
• Institutional experimentation: Freedom to blend governance approaches
• Strategic culture development: Building a distinctive Singaporean approach to international relations

Historical Precedents and Future Trajectory

1. Historical Context

Singapore has historical experience navigating Japan-China dynamics:

• Post-WWII reconciliation: Witnessed Japan’s economic reintegration with the region
• China’s opening and rise: Navigated China’s transformation from isolation to regional centrality
• Asian financial crisis response: Observed both powers’ regional economic leadership

2. Future Evolution

The China-Japan balancing approach offers more sustainable adaptation paths:

• Post-American regional order: Better positioned if US regional presence diminishes
• Asian regionalism: Able to shape emerging Asian-centered institutions
• Technology governance: Opportunity to influence regional technology standards

Unique Risk Mitigation Profile

1. Bilateral Tension Management

China-Japan Balance:

• Historical sensitivities: Both powers constrained by historical complications
• Economic interdependence: Strong economic ties moderate security competition
• Regional reputation concerns: Both powers sensitive to regional perceptions

US-China Balance:

• Global competition with fewer restraining factors
• Security dilemma dynamics more pronounced
• Ideological component heightens tension

2. Crisis Resilience

• Multiple communication channels: More diverse crisis management pathways
• Greater regional ownership: Asian solutions to Asian problems
• Layered institutional frameworks: Multiple forums for conflict resolution

Conclusion: Strategic Wisdom in the Asian Century

For Singapore, prioritizing a balancing approach between China and Japan represents strategic wisdom for several fundamental reasons:

1. Asian-centered future: Positions Singapore advantageously in an increasingly Asian-centered world order
2. Regional agency: Enhances Singapore’s ability to shape regional outcomes rather than merely responding to extra-regional dynamics
3. Civilizational nuance: Leverages Singapore’s unique position at the crossroads of Asian civilizations
4. Sustainability: Creates a more durable long-term strategic posture less vulnerable to extra-regional policy shifts
5. Identity coherence: Aligns with Singapore’s self-conception as an Asian nation with global connections

The China-Japan balancing approach does not exclude US engagement. Instead, it creates a more sophisticated three-dimensional space in which Singapore can maximise its strategic autonomy, preserve its distinctive identity, and secure its prosperity in an era of increasing geopolitical complexity. This represents a more nuanced and sustainable approach than the binary framing of US-China balancing that has dominated much strategic discourse.

Japan as a Test Case for US-Asia Trade and Diplomacy

Based on the article, Japan’s current negotiations with the Trump administration serve as a crucial bellwether for US-Asia relations in several important ways:

Strategic Significance

The article positions Japan as “the canary in the tariff coal mine” – suggesting that Japan’s experience will predict how other Asian nations might fare in trade negotiations with the Trump administration. This framing establishes Japan as a test case that countries like South Korea, India, and others in the region are closely monitoring.

Regional Trade Leadership

The article highlights Japan’s evolution into a champion of free trade in Asia, noting its role in:

• Rescuing the Trans-Pacific Partnership after the US withdrew
• Helping lead the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)

This positions Japan as both a trade leader in Asia and a potential bridge between US protectionist tendencies and the region’s preference for open markets.

Security-Trade Nexus

A key dimension is how Japan’s status as a critical security ally affects its trade negotiations:

• The article states Japan is “in a better position than perhaps any other country” to secure a good deal
• This suggests security partnerships may influence trade outcomes for other Asian allies
• The more the US hardens its stance against China, the more leverage security allies might have

First Mover Advantage

The article explicitly mentions that other nations are watching to see if Japan benefits from a “first mover advantage” in these negotiations. Countries mentioned explicitly as being next in line include:

• Britain
• Australia
• South Korea
• India

This creates a domino effect where Japan’s outcomes will likely influence how these other nations approach their own negotiations.

Tensions Between Rhetoric and Reality

The article highlights a disconnect between US perceptions and trade realities:

• Trump’s complaints about Japanese trade barriers are described as “largely divorced from reality”
• This suggests similar misunderstandings may affect negotiations with other Asian nations
• The anecdote about Obama and Abe illustrates this is a bipartisan American misconception

Potential Ripple Effects

Perhaps most significantly, the article suggests that if Japan – with all its advantages as a security ally and major Treasury holder – cannot secure favorable terms, other nations might abandon diplomatic approaches:

• “If even Tokyo can’t secure a positive deal, that might lead other nations to decide that the better strategy is fighting back”

This implies that Japan’s experience could determine whether US-Asia trade relations become more cooperative or more confrontational during Trump’s second term.

The article frames these negotiations as having implications far beyond bilateral relations, potentially setting the tone for broader US engagement with Asia during this administration.

How Japan and Asia Can Adapt to Trump’s Trade Policies

Based on the article and broader context, here are strategies Japan and other Asian nations might employ to navigate the new Trump administration:

Leverage Security Partnerships

• Japan can emphasize its strategic importance as a key security ally, especially as the US takes a harder line on China
• Other Asian allies like South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines could similarly link their security value to trade negotiations
• Positioning cooperation as mutually beneficial rather than zero-sum

Offer Targeted Concessions

The article suggests Japan could:

• Purchase more US LNG from Alaska
• Buy additional US military equipment
• Adjust safety standards for US cars (even if this won’t significantly impact market dynamics)
• Import US rice to address domestic price pressures

These types of strategic concessions could provide “wins” for Trump without substantially altering the trade relationship.

Find Common Economic Interests

• Currency discussions where both sides benefit (Japan would welcome a stronger yen)
• Identify sectors where import increases genuinely benefit both economies
• Focus on mutual concerns about China’s economic practices

Form Regional Economic Blocs

• Continue strengthening Asian trade frameworks like RCEP
• Maintain momentum on CPTPP (the TPP successor that Japan helped rescue)
• Create resilience through diversified trade relationships less dependent on the US

Address Perceptions vs. Reality

• Directly confront misunderstandings about trade barriers, as the article mentions with the car market example
• Provide data-driven evidence to counter inaccurate claims (like the “700% rice tariff” mentioned)
• Invest in educating US officials about actual market conditions.

Consider Strategic Treasury Holdings

While the article notes it’s “close to impossible to imagine Tokyo resorting to such levels of diplomatic brinksmanship,” Japan’s position as the largest holder of US Treasuries provides theoretical leverage that might subtly influence negotiations.

Coordinate Regional Responses

• Share information about negotiation strategies and outcomes
• Create informal coordination between Asian nations to prevent being played against each other
• Present united positions on issues of regional importance

Wait Out Short-Term Pressures

• The article hints that Prime Minister Ishiba might be using the trade tensions politically
• Other Asian leaders could similarly frame temporary trade friction as manageable within a longer-term relationship

The most successful approach likely involves a combination of strategic concessions that allow Trump to claim victories while preserving the core economic relationships that benefit both the US and its Asian partners.

Japan as the Ultimate Test Case for Trump’s Asia Strategy

Japan represents a uniquely revealing test for Trump’s approach to Asia for several reasons that extend beyond what’s directly stated in the article:

Perfect Storm of Trump’s Grievances

Japan embodies nearly all the trade complaints Trump has historically raised:

• Persistent bilateral trade deficit ($67.5 billion in 2023)
• Strong manufacturing sector, particularly in automobiles
• Currency management history (though less relevant recently)
• Sophisticated non-tariff barriers (real and perceived)

If Trump can find accommodation with Japan despite these historical grievances, it suggests potential for pragmatism with other Asian nations.

Japan’s Unique Position

Japan combines several advantages not available to most Asian nations:

• Major security ally hosting significant US military presence
• Democratic political system aligned with US values
• No territorial or human rights disputes that complicate relations
• Deeply integrated economic ties dating back decades
• Substantial US Treasury holdings ($1.1+ trillion)

This creates a “best-case scenario” for negotiations. If Japan cannot secure favorable terms despite these advantages, countries with more complicated relationships face dim prospects.

The China Factor

Japan serves as a critical counterbalance to China in Trump’s strategic thinking:

• A weakened US-Japan relationship would undermine containment of China
• Pushing Japan too hard could inadvertently drive it toward greater economic accommodation with Beijing
• Other Asian nations will gauge whether security cooperation truly provides trade benefits

Political Leadership Test

The Akazawa-Bessent negotiations represent a clash of diplomatic philosophies:

• Japan’s preference for careful, incremental consensus-building
• Trump’s transactional, pressure-oriented negotiation style
• Testing whether established diplomatic channels still function effectively

Beyond Symbolic Victories

Most crucially, Japan tests whether Trump seeks:

1. Substantive economic realignment
2. Political wins through symbolic concessions

Japan’s sophisticated diplomatic corps may offer token concessions (adjusting car standards, buying American rice) that allow Trump to claim victory without fundamentally altering economic relationships. If this approach succeeds, it creates a playbook for other Asian nations.

The Real Verdict

The true test isn’t whether an agreement is reached, but its nature:

• Does it address structural issues or focus on headline numbers?
• Is implementation practical or primarily symbolic?
• Do both sides genuinely feel they’ve benefited?
• How does it affect regional economic architecture?

The answers to these questions will reveal whether Trump’s Asia policy represents a fundamental break with previous administrations or a more aggressive continuation of established patterns.

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