Trump’s Strategy: Champion contends that Trump never genuinely tried to end the war through pressure on Russia. Instead, his goal was always to achieve a “reset” with Russia for economic benefits, viewing American involvement in Ukraine as an obstacle to that relationship.
Putin’s Position: With Trump stepping back, Putin has even less incentive to moderate his demands, which reportedly include Ukraine ceding both occupied and unconquered territories, abandoning NATO aspirations, and largely demobilising its forces.
Ukraine’s Dilemma: The author argues Ukrainians have little choice but to continue fighting, as Putin’s vision treats Ukraine as an illegitimate state whose distinct identity is “fake.” Surrender would mean the end of Ukrainian sovereignty.
Europe’s Challenge: The central question becomes whether Europe has the political will and industrial capacity to sustain Ukraine’s defence. While countries like the UK, France, and Germany recognise Ukraine’s defence as tied to their own security, they lack the industrial capacity to replace American support.
Reasons for Cautious Optimism: Champion notes that Ukraine has dramatically expanded its own military production capacity and that some European defence companies are already investing in Ukrainian facilities. He suggests viewing Ukraine’s defence as a catalyst for broader European security rather than a burden.
Trump-Ukraine Relations: Deep Analysis and Impact on Singapore, Asia, and ASEAN
Trump’s Ukraine Policy Framework
Strategic Pivot Away from Ukraine
Trump’s approach to Ukraine represents a fundamental departure from the Biden administration’s strategy. Based on the article and broader context, several key elements define this shift:
Economic Prioritisation Over Security: Trump views continued U.S. involvement in Ukraine as an impediment to potential economic gains from improved Russia relations. This transactional approach prioritises bilateral economic opportunities over multilateral security commitments.
“America First” Reframing: By characterising Ukraine as a “European situation,” Trump is attempting to shift responsibility while reducing U.S. commitments. This reflects his broader scepticism toward international entanglements that don’t yield direct American benefits.
Pressure Strategy Abandonment: The article notes that Trump had the tools to pressure Putin but chose not to use them, suggesting a deliberate policy choice rather than strategic inability.
Implications for Asia-Pacific Security Architecture
Precedent for Alliance Commitments
Trump’s Ukraine approach sends powerful signals about U.S. reliability as a security partner:
Conditional Commitment Doctrine: The suggestion that the U.S. might withdraw support based on economic considerations raises questions about the durability of American security guarantees elsewhere.
European Parallel to Asian Concerns: Just as Trump frames Ukraine as Europe’s responsibility, similar logic could be applied to regional conflicts in Asia, potentially characterising Taiwan or South China Sea disputes as primarily regional issues.
Impact on Deterrence Calculations
Chinese Strategic Assessment: Beijing is likely drawing lessons about U.S. resolve from the Ukraine situation. A perception of declining American commitment to allies could embolden more assertive Chinese actions in the region.
North Korean Dynamics: Pyongyang may interpret reduced U.S. global engagement as an opportunity to advance its nuclear program or increase pressure on South Korea with less fear of decisive American intervention.
Singapore’s Strategic Dilemma
Balancing Act Intensification
Singapore faces several challenges from this shift:
U.S.-China Competition: As the U.S. potentially reduces its global commitments while China maintains or increases its assertiveness, Singapore must navigate an increasingly complex balance between the two powers.
Security Architecture Uncertainty: Singapore’s defence planning relies partly on the assumption of continued U.S. engagement in regional security. Reduced American commitment could necessitate alternative arrangements.
Economic Dependencies: Singapore’s role as a global financial and trade hub depends on a stable international order. Fragmentation of the global system could impact its economic model.
Hedging Strategy Implications
Diversification Imperative: Singapore may need to further diversify its security and economic partnerships, potentially deepening ties with European powers, Japan, Australia, and India.
Neutral Positioning: Maintaining strict neutrality may become more challenging if forced to choose sides in an increasingly polarised international system.
ASEAN Collective Response Challenges
Consensus Building Difficulties
Varied National Interests: ASEAN members have different relationships with both the U.S. and China, making unified responses to changing U.S. policy difficult.
Thailand and the Philippines: Countries with traditionally strong U.S. ties may need to recalibrate their strategies.
Cambodia and Laos: Nations closer to China may see opportunities in reduced U.S. engagement.
Vietnam faces particular complexity given its disputes with China, but also its communist system.
Strategic Autonomy Imperative
ASEAN Centrality Under Pressure: The organisation’s preferred position at the centre of regional architecture becomes more challenging to maintain if major powers are less engaged in multilateral frameworks.
Defence Capabilities Gap: Reduced U.S. security provision could expose ASEAN’s collective defence limitations, potentially accelerating military modernisation efforts.
Regional Security Implications
Taiwan Strait Dynamics
Precedent Concerns: Taiwan’s leadership and supporters may view the U.S. approach to Ukraine as a potential preview of American commitment levels in a Taiwan crisis.
Chinese Calculations: Beijing may interpret reduced U.S. global engagement as creating windows of opportunity for more assertive actions.
South China Sea Tensions
Freedom of Navigation: Reduced U.S. naval presence or engagement could alter the balance in disputed waters.
Claimant State Positioning: Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia may need to develop alternative strategies for dealing with Chinese assertiveness.
Economic and Trade Ramifications
Supply Chain Reconfiguration
De-risking Acceleration: Uncertainty about U.S. commitments may accelerate efforts to reduce dependencies on single countries or regions.
Regional Integration: ASEAN may need to strengthen intra-regional economic ties to reduce vulnerability to great power competition.
Investment Flows
Security Premium: Due to reduced U.S. engagement, investors may demand higher returns on investments in regions perceived as less secure.
Alternative Partnerships: European and other non-U.S. investments may become more attractive as American commitment appears less reliable.
Long-term Strategic Considerations
Multipolar Asia Emergence
Power Distribution: Reduced U.S. engagement could accelerate the emergence of a more multipolar Asia, with China, India, Japan, and potentially European powers playing larger roles.
New Institutions: Alternative security and economic institutions may gain prominence if U.S.-led frameworks appear less reliable.
Adaptation Strategies for Singapore and ASEAN
Enhanced Diplomatic Engagement: Increased emphasis on diplomatic solutions and conflict prevention mechanisms.
Technology and Innovation Focus: Leveraging technological advantages to maintain relevance despite reduced traditional security guarantees.
Middle Power Coalitions: Strengthening partnerships with like-minded middle powers such as Australia, Japan, and South Korea.
Conclusion
Trump’s approach to Ukraine represents more than a single policy decision—it signals a potential restructuring of American global engagement that could have profound implications for Asia-Pacific security and economic arrangements. For Singapore and ASEAN, this creates both challenges and opportunities, requiring careful navigation of an increasingly complex strategic environment where traditional assumptions about American commitment may no longer hold. The key will be developing adaptive strategies that maintain regional stability and prosperity while accommodating new geopolitical realities.
Trump-Ukraine Relations: Deep Analysis and Impact on Singapore, Asia, and ASEAN
Trump’s Ukraine Policy Framework
Strategic Pivot Away from Ukraine
Trump’s approach to Ukraine represents a fundamental departure from the Biden administration’s strategy. Based on the article and broader context, several key elements define this shift:
Economic Prioritisation on Over Security: Trump views continued U.S. involvement in Ukraine as an impediment to potential economic gains from improved Russia relations. This transactional approach prioritises bilateral economic opportunities over multilateral security commitments.
“America First” Reframing: By characterising Ukraine as a “European situation,” Trump is attempting to shift responsibility while reducing U.S. commitments. This reflects his broader scepticism toward international entanglements that don’t yield direct American benefits.
Pressure Strategy Abandonment: The article notes that Trump had the tools to pressure Putin but chose not to use them, suggesting a deliberate policy choice rather than strategic inability.
Implications for Asia-Pacific Security Architecture
Precedent for Alliance Commitments
Trump’s Ukraine approach sends powerful signals about U.S. reliability as a security partner:
Conditional Commitment Doctrine: The suggestion that the U.S. might withdraw support based on economic considerations raises questions about the durability of American security guarantees elsewhere.
European Parallel to Asian Concerns: Just as Trump frames Ukraine as Europe’s responsibility, similar logic could be applied to regional conflicts in Asia, potentially characterising Taiwan or South China Sea disputes as primarily regional issues.
Impact on Deterrence Calculations
Chinese Strategic Assessment: Beijing is likely drawing lessons about U.S. resolve from the Ukraine situation. A perception of declining American commitment to allies could embolden more assertive Chinese actions in the region.
North Korean Dynamics: Pyongyang may interpret reduced U.S. global engagement as an opportunity to advance its nuclear program or increase pressure on South Korea with less fear of decisive American intervention.
Singapore’s Strategic Dilemma
Balancing Act Intensification
Singapore faces several challenges from this shift:
U.S.-China Competition: As the U.S. potentially reduces its global commitments while China maintains or increases its assertiveness, Singapore must navigate an increasingly complex balance between the two powers.
Security Architecture Uncertainty: Singapore’s defence planning relies partly on the assumption of continued U.S. engagement in regional security. Reduced American commitment could necessitate alternative arrangements.
Economic Dependencies: Singapore’s role as a global financial and trade hub depends on a stable international order. Fragmentation of the global system could impact its economic model.
Hedging Strategy Implications
Diversification Imperative: Singapore may need to further diversify its security and economic partnerships, potentially deepening ties with European powers, Japan, Australia, and India.
Neutral Positioning: Maintaining strict neutrality may become more challenging if forced to choose sides in an increasingly polarised international system.
ASEAN Collective Response Challenges
Consensus Building Difficulties
Varied National Interests: ASEAN members have different relationships with both the U.S. and China, making unified responses to changing U.S. policy difficult.
Thailand and the Philippines: Countries with traditionally strong U.S. ties may need to recalibrate their strategies.
Cambodia and Laos: Nations closer to China may see opportunities in reduced U.S. engagement.
Vietnam faces particular complexity given its disputes with China, but also its communist system.
Strategic Autonomy Imperative
ASEAN Centrality Under Pressure: The organisation’s preferred position at the centre of regional architecture becomes more challenging to maintain if major powers are less engaged in multilateral frameworks.
Defence Capabilities Gap: Reduced U.S. security provision could expose ASEAN’s collective defence limitations, potentially accelerating military modernisation efforts.
Regional Security Implications
Taiwan Strait Dynamics
Precedent Concerns: Taiwan’s leadership and supporters may view the U.S. approach to Ukraine as a potential preview of American commitment levels in a Taiwan crisis.
Chinese Calculations: Beijing may interpret reduced U.S. global engagement as creating windows of opportunity for more assertive actions.
South China Sea Tensions
Freedom of Navigation: Reduced U.S. naval presence or engagement could alter the balance in disputed waters.
Claimant State Positioning: Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia may need to develop alternative strategies for dealing with Chinese assertiveness.
Economic and Trade Ramifications
Supply Chain Reconfiguration
De-risking Acceleration: Uncertainty about U.S. commitments may accelerate efforts to reduce dependencies on single countries or regions.
Regional Integration: ASEAN may need to strengthen intra-regional economic ties to reduce vulnerability to great power competition.
Investment Flows
Security Premium: Due to reduced U.S. engagement, investors may demand higher returns on investments in regions perceived as less secure.
Alternative Partnerships: European and other non-U.S. investments may become more attractive as American commitment appears less reliable.
Long-term Strategic Considerations
Multipolar Asia Emergence
Power Distribution: Reduced U.S. engagement could accelerate the emergence of a more multipolar Asia, with China, India, Japan, and potentially European powers playing larger roles.
New Institutions: Alternative security and economic institutions may gain prominence if U.S.-led frameworks appear less reliable.
Adaptation Strategies for Singapore and ASEAN
Enhanced Diplomatic Engagement: Increased emphasis on diplomatic solutions and conflict prevention mechanisms.
Technology and Innovation Focus: Leveraging technological advantages to maintain relevance despite reduced traditional security guarantees.
Middle Power Coalitions: Strengthening partnerships with like-minded middle powers such as Australia, Japan, and South Korea.
Conclusion
Trump’s approach to Ukraine represents more than a single policy decision—it signals a potential restructuring of American global engagement that could have profound implications for Asia-Pacific security and economic arrangements. For Singapore and ASEAN, this creates both challenges and opportunities, requiring careful navigation of an increasingly complex strategic environment where traditional assumptions about American commitment may no longer hold. The key will be developing adaptive strategies that maintain regional stability and prosperity while accommodating new geopolitical realities.
Europe’s Defining Choice: Ukraine After Trump-Putin and Its Ripple Effects Across Asia
Europe at the Crossroads: The Post-Trump Ukraine Dilemma
The Burden of Leadership Transfer
Following Trump’s phone call with Putin and America’s effective withdrawal from Ukraine support, Europe faces its most consequential foreign policy decision since World War II. The continent must now choose between two fundamentally different paths: stepping up as Ukraine’s primary defender or allowing Russian subjugation to proceed unchecked.
The Scale of the Challenge: Europe must rapidly fill a gap that includes not just the $60+ billion in annual U.S. military aid, but also the strategic deterrence that American involvement provided. This requires unprecedented coordination among 27 EU nations plus the UK, each with distinct national interests and varying threat perceptions.
Internal Fractures: The article highlights how defence cooperation has already been hampered by unrelated disputes, such as youth mobility agreements between the UK and the EU. These procedural squabbles reveal deeper structural problems in European decision-making that could prove fatal in a crisis requiring swift, decisive action.
The Industrial Mobilisation Imperative
Europe’s choice isn’t merely political—it’s industrial and economic. Supporting Ukraine requires:
Defence Production Scaling: European arms manufacturers like Rheinmetall, KNDS Group, and BAE Systems must dramatically increase production capacity. The article notes that Ukraine has grown its military production from $750 million to a potential $35 billion capacity, but still needs European-supplied aircraft, missiles, and air defence systems.
Financial Commitment: The cost of sustaining Ukraine’s defence could reach $100+ billion annually for Europe, requiring either massive budget reallocations or new funding mechanisms like joint EU defence bonds.
Technology Transfer: European companies establishing operations in Ukraine represent not just business opportunities but strategic partnerships that could reshape the continent’s defence industrial base.
Strategic Implications for Asian Security Architecture
The Precedent of Western Resolve
Europe’s choice on Ukraine will be closely watched in Beijing, Pyongyang, and throughout Asia as a litmus test of Western commitment to defending allies under pressure.
Chinese Strategic Calculus: If Europe fails to adequately support Ukraine, Beijing may conclude that Western security guarantees are ultimately hollow when tested by determined authoritarian powers. This could embolden more aggressive actions toward Taiwan, knowing that sustained Western support may waver over time.
Alliance Credibility Crisis: The fracturing of transatlantic unity over Ukraine could undermine the credibility of Western security architectures globally, including QUAD, AUKUS, and bilateral defence treaties throughout Asia.
Multipolar Asia Acceleration
European preoccupation with Ukraine, combined with reduced U.S. global engagement, could accelerate Asia’s evolution toward a multipolar system:
Power Vacuum Dynamics: Reduced Western bandwidth for Asian affairs could allow China to expand its influence through economic coercion, territorial assertions, or alliance-building with authoritarian partners.
Middle Power Coalitions: Countries like Japan, Australia, South Korea, and India may need to form more independent security arrangements, potentially excluding traditional Western partners focused on European concerns.
Singapore’s Strategic Recalibration
The Small State Dilemma Intensified
Singapore’s traditional strategy of hedging between great powers becomes more complex when those powers are increasingly unreliable or preoccupied:
Alliance Portfolio Diversification: Singapore may need to deepen partnerships beyond the traditional U.S.-Europe-Asia triangle, potentially including closer ties with India, Japan, Australia, and even carefully managed engagement with China.
Economic Hedging: As a trade-dependent economy, Singapore must prepare for scenarios where European markets are consumed by defence spending and reconstruction costs, while Asian markets face increased Chinese dominance.
Defence Independence: Singapore’s already substantial defence capabilities may need further enhancement if external security guarantees become less reliable.
Technological and Economic Positioning
Neutral Platform Strategy: Singapore’s role as a neutral meeting ground for competing powers becomes more valuable as traditional alliance structures weaken, potentially positioning it as a key mediator in an increasingly fragmented world.
Innovation Hub Pivot: With Europe focused on defence production and Asia on great power competition, Singapore could capture increased investment in civilian technologies and financial services.
ASEAN’s Moment of Truth
Collective Response Capabilities
Europe’s struggle to coordinate a unified Ukraine response highlights similar challenges facing ASEAN:
Consensus Limitations: ASEAN’s consensus-based decision-making, already strained by diverse member interests, may prove inadequate for rapid responses to security crises.
Capability Gaps: Unlike NATO’s Article 5 commitments, the organisation lacks the institutional mechanisms and resources to provide meaningful security assistance to members under pressure.
Strategic Autonomy Imperative
ASEAN Centrality Under Pressure: The bloc’s preferred position at the centre of regional architecture becomes harder to maintain when major external powers are distracted or unreliable.
Indigenous Security Development: ASEAN may need to develop independent defence capabilities and conflict resolution mechanisms rather than relying on external guarantors.
Regional Flashpoint Analysis
Taiwan Strait Implications
Deterrence Erosion: If Europe cannot sustain Ukraine’s support, Taiwan’s defenders may conclude that even strong initial Western support can dissipate over time, potentially affecting Taiwan’s resistance calculations.
Chinese Timeline Acceleration: Beijing might interpret European struggles as indicating that Western powers lack the staying power for prolonged conflicts, potentially shortening Chinese timelines for Taiwan scenarios.
South China Sea Dynamics
Power Balance Shifts: Reduced U.S. presence combined with European preoccupation could alter the balance in disputed waters, potentially emboldening Chinese assertiveness.
Claimant State Strategies: Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia may need to develop more independent deterrence capabilities or seek accommodation with Chinese power.
Economic Transformation Scenarios
European Economic Militarization
Defence Spending Surge: European defence budgets could double or triple, fundamentally altering economic priorities and potentially reducing civilian investment and trade capacity.
Industrial Realignment: European economies may shift toward defence production, potentially reducing competitiveness in civilian technologies and services that Asian economies rely on.
Asian Trade Reconfiguration
Intra-Asian Integration: Reduced European economic engagement could accelerate intra-Asian trade integration, potentially creating a more China-centric economic sphere.
Supply Chain Resilience: Asian economies may need to develop greater independence from European inputs, particularly in high-technology sectors where European firms currently play key roles.
Long-term Structural Implications
Global Order Fragmentation
Institutional Decay: Failure of Western coordination over Ukraine could accelerate the breakdown of post-WWII international institutions, forcing Asian countries to operate in a more anarchic international system.
Bloc Formation: The world may divide into more clearly defined spheres of influence, with Asia potentially split between Chinese and residual Western zones of influence.
Adaptation Strategies for Asian Powers
Singapore’s Path Forward:
- Enhanced diplomatic engagement with all major powers
- Continued investment in defence capabilities and technological innovation
- Positioning as a neutral platform for great power dialogue
- Deeper integration with like-minded middle powers
ASEAN Collective Action:
- Development of indigenous conflict resolution mechanisms
- Enhanced defence cooperation among members
- Economic integration to reduce dependence on external powers
- Institutional reforms to enable faster decision-making
Conclusion: The Defining Moment
Europe’s choice on Ukraine represents more than a regional security decision—it’s a test of whether democratic, affluent societies can sustain the costs and commitments necessary to maintain international order. For Asia, the outcome will determine whether the region continues to benefit from Western-guaranteed stability or must adapt to a more competitive, multipolar environment where security and prosperity depend increasingly on indigenous capabilities and regional arrangements.
The stakes extend far beyond Europe’s borders. In Singapore’s gleaming financial district and Jakarta’s bustling ports, in Seoul’s technology centres and Manila’s diplomatic corridors, leaders are watching Europe’s choice with acute awareness that their own future security and prosperity hang in the balance. The age of guaranteed Western protection may be ending, and Asia must prepare for whatever comes next.
A Personal Account: Tensions in Transit
Liam’s London: A Singaporean’s View from the European Crossroads
Chapter One: The Call That Changed Everything
Liam Tan adjusted his scarf as he emerged from the Canary Wharf station, the February wind cutting through London’s financial district with typical ruthlessness. Three years into his posting as Southeast Asia liaison for a central European investment bank, he’d grown accustomed to the city’s moods, but today felt different. His phone buzzed with messages from colleagues back in Singapore, all asking the same question: “What’s the mood there after the Trump-Putin call?”
The answer wasn’t simple. Walking through the gleaming towers toward his office, Liam noticed the subtle changes that had emerged over the past week. Conversations in elevators had grown more hushed, punctuated by urgent phrases like “defence spending” and “supply chain resilience.” The easy confidence that had characterised London’s financial elite seemed to have developed hairline cracks.
At his morning briefing, the usual discussion of Asian market movements was overshadowed by a heated debate about European defence bonds. Sarah Mitchell, the bank’s head of European strategy, passionately advocated reallocating portfolios toward defence contractors.
“Look, I know it sounds dramatic,” she said, her usually measured tone betraying stress, “but if America won’t pay for European security, someone has to. And that someone is us.”
Liam found himself thinking of his grandmother in Singapore, who had lived through the Japanese occupation. She’d always told him that security was never guaranteed, that peace required constant vigilance and sacrifice. Now, watching these wealthy Europeans grapple with the same hard truths, he felt a strange sense of historical echo.
Chapter Two: The Weight of Choice
The following week brought news that Poland was calling for an emergency EU defence summit. Liam watched his European colleagues with growing fascination as they struggled with concepts that Southeast Asians had never forgotten: that geography is destiny, that powerful neighbours require careful management, and that sometimes there are no good choices, only necessary ones.
In the bank’s executive dining room, he overheard a conversation between two senior partners that crystallised the moment:
“The Germans are baulking at the costs,” one said quietly. “They think they can negotiate their way out of this.”
“And if they can’t?”
“Then we’re looking at a fundamentally different Europe. One that either fights or submits.”
The stark binary reminded Liam of Singapore’s own existential calculations. Living in one of the world’s smallest countries, surrounded by much larger neighbours, had taught him that neutrality required strength, that being small meant being smart, and that sometimes the only choice was between complexity and catastrophe.
Chapter Three: The Cracks Show
By March, the tensions were impossible to ignore. The much-vaunted UK-EU defence cooperation agreement had collapsed amid recriminations over everything from youth mobility to fishing rights. Liam found himself in an awkward position as British colleagues complained about European “dithering” while European partners criticised British “grandstanding.”
At a reception at the Singapore Embassy, he met Maria Santos, a Portuguese diplomat who had been working on EU defence integration for years.
“You know what the tragedy is?” she said, gesturing with her wine glass toward the Thames. “We have everything we need – the money, the technology, the industrial base. What we lack is the political will to make hard choices.”
Liam nodded, thinking of ASEAN’s own struggles with consensus-building. “In Singapore, we have a saying: ‘When the big elephants fight, the grass gets trampled.’ Maybe being small teaches you to focus on what really matters.”
“And what really matters?”
“Survival. Everything else is negotiable.”
Chapter Four: Personal Stakes
The crisis hit home when Liam’s bank announced it was scaling back European operations to focus on “more stable markets.” His own position was secure – Asian expertise was more valuable than ever – but he watched longtime colleagues face uncertainty with a mixture of sympathy and analytical detachment.
His British colleague James Richardson, who had been with the firm for fifteen years, was particularly bitter. “Twenty years ago, we were the indispensable nation,” he said over drinks in a Canary Wharf pub. “Now we can’t even agree on whether to defend our own neighbourhoods.”
Liam chose his words carefully. “Maybe being indispensable was always an illusion. In Asia, we never forgot that the world is dangerous, that allies can become enemies, that everything can change overnight.”
“Easy for you to say,” James replied, not unkindly”Singapore’s been living with existential threats forever. We thought we’d graduated from that.”
“Maybe no one graduates from geography.”
Chapter Five: The New Reality
By April, the transformation was undeniable. European defence stocks had soared, governments were announcing massive spending increases, and the casual internationalism that had characterised London’s financial district was giving way to something more challenging, more insular.
Liam’s reports back to Singapore grew increasingly urgent. European preoccupation with their own security was creating opportunities for Asian financial centres, but also risks. If Europe militarised economically, Asian supply chains could face disruption. If European unity fractured completely, the global financial system could fragment along geopolitical lines.
Standing in his apartment overlooking the Thames, video-calling his team in Singapore, Liam tried to explain what he was witnessing.
“It’s like watching someone discover they’re not immortal,” he said. “The shock is profound, but so is the determination. The question is whether they can maintain it long enough to matter.”
His colleague in Singapore, Dr. Jane Wu, was blunt in her assessment: “If Europe can’t defend Ukraine, what makes anyone think America will defend Taiwan? We need to prepare for a world where we’re truly on our own.”
Epilogue: Letters Home
Six months after the Trump-Putin call, Liam found himself in a very different London. The city’s financial district had adapted with characteristic speed, pivoting toward defence financing and supply chain resilience. But the easy confidence was gone, replaced by something harder but perhaps more honest.
In his final report before returning to Singapore, he wrote:
“Europe’s choice on Ukraine has forced a continent to confront uncomfortable truths about power, responsibility, and the price of peace. The outcome remains uncertain, but the process has already changed Europe fundamentally. For Asia, watching from across the world, the lesson is clear: the post-war order that guaranteed our prosperity and security is ending. What comes next depends on the choices we make today, choices that will echo across generations.
“As my grandmother used to say, peace is not the absence of conflict – it’s the presence of justice backed by strength. Europe is learning this lesson again. The question is whether the rest of us are ready to learn it too.”
Flying back to Singapore, looking down at the lights of cities across continents, Liam reflected on how quickly certainties could crumble, how geography and power still mattered in ways that comfortable people preferred to forget. The world was becoming more dangerous, but perhaps also more honest about the eternal realities of power, security, and survival.
In his carry-on bag was a letter from Maria Santos, the Portuguese diplomat, with a final observation: “We thought we had transcended history. Instead, we discovered that history was just waiting for us to stop paying attention. The question now is whether we remember the lessons in time.”
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