Third Way Strategy: Macron outlined what he calls a “third way” for middle powers, advocating for a “positive new alliance between Europe and Asia” based on shared principles and norms. This represents an alternative to being forced to choose sides between the US and China.

Strategic Autonomy: Building on France’s doctrine of “strategic autonomy,” Macron argued that countries should be able to cooperate with the US while competing with (but not confronting) China, all while prioritising their own national interests.

Coalition Building: He emphasised moving beyond non-alignment toward “coalitions of action” that can work together on defence, security, and supply chain resilience.

Global Context and Concerns

US-China Rivalry: Macron identified the intensifying competition between these superpowers as the world’s most significant risk, particularly given the Trump administration’s approach to trade and alliance relationships since returning to office in 2025.

Interconnected Crises: The French leader highlighted how regional conflicts are becoming increasingly intertwined – from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (now involving North Korean troops) to tensions in the South China Sea and concerns about potential Chinese action against Taiwan.

Nuclear Proliferation: He warned about the domino effects of nuclear proliferation, particularly regarding Iran, and how this could justify other nations seeking nuclear capabilities.

Regional Implications

Macron’s visit was part of a broader Southeast Asian tour that included Vietnam and Indonesia, culminating in Singapore’s first comprehensive strategic partnership with a European nation. His proposal specifically mentioned working with India and Trans-Pacific Partnership members, suggesting a broad coalition of middle powers.

The timing and venue of this address, Asia’s premier security dialogue, underscore the country’s intent to position itself as a key partner for Asian nations seeking alternatives to binary great power alignment.

Macron’s Vision for Asia: A Strategic Realignment

The “Third Way” Framework

Macron’s vision represents a fundamental reimagining of how middle powers can navigate great power competition. Rather than accepting the binary choice between US and Chinese spheres of influence, he proposes a coalition of willing middle powers—nations that can collectively create enough economic and strategic weight to maintain autonomy.

This isn’t simply non-alignment 2.0. Macron explicitly rejected non-alignment as outdated, instead advocating for “coalitions of action” that can actively shape global outcomes rather than passively avoiding entanglement. The French approach suggests these coalitions would be functionally aligned on specific issues while maintaining strategic flexibility overall.

Geographic and Economic Logic

France’s Indo-Pacific credentials are often overlooked; they are substantial. With 1 million French citizens across seven territories in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, France has legitimate regional interests. This lends more credibility to Macron’s proposals than if they were presented from a purely European perspective.

The economic foundation is equally important. By targeting India, CPTPP members, and key ASEAN states, Macron is essentially proposing to link some of the world’s fastest-growing economies with Europe’s advanced manufacturing and technology base. This could lead to the development of alternative supply chains that reduce dependence on both Chinese manufacturing and American technology.

The Singapore Model as a Template

Macron’s specific praise for Singapore’s “DNA” in this context is revealing. Singapore has successfully maintained relationships with all major powers while preserving its sovereignty and advancing its interests. The city-state has:

• Hosted Chinese and American military facilities simultaneously
• Maintained robust trade relationships across ideological divides
• Built technological and financial capabilities that make it indispensable to multiple powers
• Created institutional frameworks (like the Shangri-La Dialogue itself) that facilitate multilateral engagement

Impact on Singapore: Strategic Amplification

Enhanced Middle Power Status

For Singapore, Macron’s vision offers significant strategic advantages:

Institutional Leadership: Singapore could become a key node in this Europe-Asia coalition, leveraging its existing role as a neutral convener. The timing of Singapore’s first comprehensive strategic partnership with a European nation alongside this broader vision suggests coordinated strategic thinking.

Economic Diversification: While Singapore already maintains diverse economic relationships, formal coalition structures could provide new frameworks for trade, investment, and technological cooperation, thereby reducing overdependence on any single central power.

Defence and Security: Emphasising defence cooperation could enhance Singapore’s already sophisticated security capabilities, potentially including technology transfers, joint training, or coordinated responses to regional security challenges.

Practical Implications

Financial Services: Singapore’s role as Asia’s financial hub could be reinforced if European and Asian middle powers channel more trade and investment through coalition frameworks, potentially creating new currency arrangements or trade financing mechanisms.

Technology and Innovation: Singapore’s innovative city initiatives and technological capabilities align well with European strengths in areas like green technology, digital governance, and advanced manufacturing.

Diplomatic Capital: As a founding member of such a coalition, Singapore would gain additional leverage in its relationships with major powers, able to offer access to a broader network rather than just bilateral relationships.

Strategic Risks and Challenges

Great Power Reaction: Both the US and China may view this coalition as a threat to their respective spheres of influence. Singapore would need to carefully manage these relationships to avoid being perceived as favouring one power over the other.

Coalition Coherence: The proposed coalition spans diverse political systems, economic structures, and strategic priorities. Maintaining coherence while preserving the flexibility that makes the arrangement attractive could prove challenging.

Implementation Complexity: Transitioning from a grand vision to practical cooperation necessitates extensive institutional development, which can become bogged down in bureaucratic complexity or conflicts of national interest.

Historical Precedent and Innovation

Macron’s vision echoes but updates Cold War-era non-alignment movements. However, unlike the Non-Aligned Movement, which was primarily defensive and focused on avoiding entanglement, this proposal is actively constructive, aiming to build alternative institutions and relationships.

The innovation lies in creating positive coordination among middle powers rather than simply balancing against great powers. This could represent a genuine “third pole” in international relations if successfully implemented.

Long-term Implications for Singapore

If this vision materialises, Singapore could emerge as one of the primary beneficiaries, positioned as a key hub connecting European and Asian middle powers. The city-state’s existing strengths—rule of law, neutral institutions, advanced infrastructure, and skilled diplomacy—align perfectly with the coalition’s proposed values and needs.

However, success would require Singapore to navigate the delicate balance of maintaining this new coalition while preserving its essential relationships with both the US and China. The comprehensive strategic partnership with France may be the first step in what could become Singapore’s most significant strategic realignment since independence.

The ultimate test will be whether this vision can move beyond rhetoric to create practical mechanisms that genuinely enhance the autonomy and prosperity of participating nations while avoiding the trap of becoming simply another arena for great power competition.

The New Silk Road of Sovereignty: Macron’s Asia Vision and the Singapore Pivot

Executive Summary

French President Emmanuel Macron’s keynote address on May 30, 2025, at the Shangri-La Dialogue represents more than diplomatic rhetoric—it signals a fundamental recalibration of the international relations architecture. His vision for a Europe-Asia coalition challenges the prevailing bipolar world order, proposing instead a multipolar framework in which middle powers collectively assert their strategic autonomy. For Singapore, this presents both unprecedented opportunities and complex challenges as it navigates its role as a potential fulcrum in this emerging geopolitical configuration.

The Macron Doctrine: Beyond Strategic Autonomy

Theoretical Foundations

Macron’s Asia vision builds upon France’s established doctrine of “strategic autonomy” but extends it into uncharted territory. Traditional strategic autonomy focused on maintaining independence within existing power structures. Macron’s proposal is fundamentally reconstructive, seeking to create alternative power structures that can compete with, rather than merely exist alongside, existing hegemonies.

The intellectual framework draws from several sources:

• Gaullist Independence: The tradition of French foreign policy that refuses subordination to any single power
• Multipolar Realism: Recognition that unipolar and bipolar systems are inherently unstable and constraining for middle powers
• Functional Cooperation: Emphasis on issue-specific coalitions rather than comprehensive alliances
• Economic Statecraft: Leveraging economic interdependence as a tool of political influence

The Coalition Architecture

Macron’s proposed Europe-Asia alliance represents a sophisticated understanding of contemporary power dynamics. Rather than geographical blocs, he envisions a functional coalition organised around:

Economic Integration: Creating supply chains that bypass traditional significant power dependencies, particularly in critical technologies, rare earth minerals, and advanced manufacturing.

Normative Alignment: Establishing shared standards on governance, trade practices, and international law that can serve as alternatives to either the American or Chinese models.

Security Cooperation: Developing collective security mechanisms that don’t require choosing between NATO and Chinese security architectures.

Technological Sovereignty: Coordinating research and development to reduce dependence on American and Chinese technological ecosystems.

Strategic Timing and Context

The timing of Macron’s proposal reflects several converging factors:

American Retrenchment: The Trump administration’s return to office in 2025 has reignited concerns about the United States’ reliability as a security guarantor and trade partner.

Chinese Assertiveness: Beijing’s increasingly aggressive posture in the South China Sea and its alignment with Russia in Ukraine have alarmed many Asian nations.

European Awakening: Europe’s experience with energy dependence on Russia has accelerated desires for strategic autonomy.

Middle Power Anxiety: Countries such as India, Indonesia, Vietnam, and ASEAN members are increasingly uncomfortable with the binary choices imposed by great power competition.

Singapore: The Fulcrum of Asian Strategy

Strategic Assets and Capabilities

Singapore’s potential role in Macron’s vision extends far beyond its geographic position. The city-state possesses unique attributes that make it indispensable to any Europe-Asia coalition:

Institutional Infrastructure: Singapore hosts numerous international organisations, forums, and initiatives that could serve as platforms for coalition-building.

Financial Ecosystem: As Asia’s premier financial hub, Singapore could facilitate the monetary and investment flows necessary for economic integration.

Technological Capabilities: Singapore’s innovative city initiatives, cybersecurity expertise, and digital infrastructure provide templates for technological cooperation.

Diplomatic Capital: Singapore’s carefully cultivated neutrality and relationships with all major powers position it as an ideal mediator and coordinator.

The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership: A Foundation Stone

The timing of Singapore’s first comprehensive strategic partnership with a European nation alongside Macron’s broader vision suggests careful coordination. This partnership likely includes:

Defence Cooperation: Joint training, technology sharing, and coordination on regional security issues.

Economic Integration: Preferential trade arrangements, investment protection, and supply chain coordination.

Technological Collaboration: Joint research initiatives, standard-setting cooperation, and digital infrastructure development.

Diplomatic Coordination: Regular consultations on regional and global issues, joint initiatives in international forums.

Opportunities and Advantages

For Singapore, Macron’s vision offers several strategic advantages:

Enhanced Relevance: Singapore could become central to a new international architecture rather than peripheral to great power competition.

Economic Diversification: New partnerships could reduce over-dependence on any single economic relationship.

Security Enhancement: Broader security partnerships could supplement existing arrangements without replacing them.

Soft Power Projection: Singapore could lead in norm-setting and institution-building within the coalition framework.

Risks and Challenges

Significant Power Backlash: Both the US and China may view Singapore’s leadership role in an alternative coalition as a threat to their interests.

Balancing Act Complexity: Managing relationships with coalition partners while maintaining essential ties to great powers will require exceptional diplomatic skill.

Economic Interdependence: Singapore’s economy remains deeply integrated with both American and Chinese systems, making complete diversification unrealistic.

Regional Scepticism: Other ASEAN members might view Singapore’s European partnerships with suspicion or concern about their own relationships with extraordinary powers.

Implementation Challenges and Pathways

Institutional Development

Creating effective coalition structures requires addressing several institutional challenges:

Governance Mechanisms: How to make decisions when members have different political systems and priorities.

Burden Sharing: Determining fair distribution of costs and benefits across diverse economies.

Dispute Resolution: Establishing mechanisms for managing conflicts within the coalition.

Adaptability: Creating structures flexible enough to evolve with changing circumstances.

Economic Integration

The economic dimensions of Macron’s vision face practical obstacles:

Market Access: Negotiating preferential arrangements while maintaining WTO compliance.

Standard Harmonisation: Aligning different regulatory systems and technical standards.

Investment Protection: Creating frameworks that protect investors while preserving policy sovereignty.

Currency Coordination: Potentially developing alternative payment systems or currency arrangements.

Security Cooperation

Security cooperation within the coalition must navigate complex constraints:

Existing Commitments: Many potential members have security arrangements with the US or China.

Capability Gaps: Differences in military sophistication and technological capabilities.

Threat Perceptions: Varying assessments of security challenges and priorities.

Geographic Dispersion: Coordinating security cooperation across vast distances and different regional contexts.

Long-term Implications and Scenarios

Scenario 1: Successful Coalition Formation

If Macron’s vision succeeds, the international system could see:

• Emergence of a genuine third pole in international relations
• Reduced significant power leverage over middle powers
• More diverse and resilient global supply chains
• Enhanced stability through distributed power

Scenario 2: Partial Success with Functional Cooperation

A more likely outcome might involve:

• Issue-specific cooperation without a comprehensive alliance
• Enhanced middle power coordination on selected topics
• Gradual development of alternative institutions
• Continued great power dominance with increased middle power agency

Scenario 3: Failure and Fragmentation

If the vision fails to materialise:

• Return to purely bilateral relationships
• Continued great power competition with middle power subordination
• Missed opportunities for alternative international architecture
• Potential backlash against countries that pursued the initiative

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The Architect of Understanding: A Diplomatic Story

Chapter 1: The Weight of History

Ambassador Claire Dubois stood at the floor-to-ceiling windows of the French Embassy in Singapore, watching the evening light dance across Marina Bay. The iconic skyline—a testament to Singapore’s transformation from a colonial outpost to a global city—served as a daily reminder of what an ambitious vision could achieve. Tonight, however, her thoughts were focused not on Singapore’s past metamorphosis, but on its potential future as the cornerstone of France’s most audacious diplomatic gambit in decades.

The leather portfolio on her mahogany desk contained the framework for President Macron’s Asia strategy—months of careful planning that would culminate in his address at the Shangri-La Dialogue. But documents and strategic papers, Claire knew, were merely the skeleton of diplomacy. The real work lay in understanding the intricate web of relationships, interests, and anxieties that would determine whether Macron’s vision would soar or founder.

At fifty-two, Claire had spent her career navigating the subtle currents of international relations. Her previous postings in Beijing, New Delhi, and Jakarta had provided her with insights into Asian political dynamics that few European diplomats possessed. When the Élysée Palace asked her to spearhead France’s Asia initiative from Singapore, she understood both the opportunity and the immense responsibility that came with it.

Singapore represented the perfect laboratory for testing France’s new approach. Small enough to be manageable, sophisticated enough to matter, and positioned at the crossroads of every central Asian relationship. If France could successfully partner with Singapore, it might provide a template for broader regional engagement.

Chapter 2: The Delicate Dance

The following morning, Claire found herself in the familiar surroundings of the Istana, Singapore’s presidential palace, for a private meeting with Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. The comprehensive strategic partnership agreement was formally signed, but the real work of implementation was just beginning.

“Prime Minister,” Claire began, settling into the ornate chair across from Wong’s desk, “President Macron’s address tomorrow will outline our vision for a new Europe-Asia partnership. Singapore’s role isn’t just symbolic—it’s foundational.”

Wong, known for his careful deliberation, leaned back thoughtfully. “Ambassador, Singapore has thrived by maintaining relationships with all major powers. Your President’s vision is compelling, but we must be realistic about the constraints we face.”

Claire had anticipated this concern. “That’s precisely why Singapore is so important to us. We’re not asking you to choose sides—we’re proposing to create a framework where choosing sides becomes unnecessary.”

She opened her portfolio and withdrew a detailed briefing paper. “Consider the economic dimensions alone. France and our European partners represent markets of over 400 million affluent consumers. Combined with India’s 1.4 billion people, ASEAN’s 650 million, and other coalition partners, we’re talking about an economic bloc that rivals either the US or Chinese markets.”

Wong studied the figures carefully. “The economic logic is sound, but economics doesn’t exist in a vacuum. How do we manage the inevitable American and Chinese concerns about this coalition?”

“By demonstrating that this isn’t directed against them,” Claire replied. “President Macron will explicitly invite both the US and China to participate in specific initiatives. We’re not building an anti-China or anti-America coalition—we’re building a pro-sovereignty coalition.”

Chapter 3: The Asian Perspective

Later that day, Claire met with her counterparts from India, Indonesia, and Vietnam at the exclusive Singapore Club. The colonial-era setting provided an ironic backdrop for discussions about post-colonial sovereignty and strategic autonomy.

Ambassador Priya Sharma from India was the first to voice concerns. “Claire, India’s strategic autonomy is fundamental to our foreign policy. But we’ve learned to be sceptical of grand coalitions. What makes this different from previous attempts at non-alignment?”

Claire had prepared extensively for this question. “Priya, this isn’t non-alignment—it’s active alignment around shared principles. Non-alignment was essentially defensive, aimed at avoiding entanglement with other countries. We’re proposing offensive coordination—actively shaping the international order rather than merely surviving it.”

Indonesian Ambassador Hendri Suharto interjected, “But coordination requires trust, and trust requires predictability. European politics can be volatile. How do we know France won’t abandon this initiative after the next election?”

“That’s why we’re institutionalising these relationships,” Claire responded. “The comprehensive strategic partnership with Singapore includes mechanisms that transcend electoral cycles. We’re embedding these relationships in economic agreements, technological cooperation, and security arrangements that create vested interests in continuity.”

Vietnamese Ambassador Nguyen Thi Lan, who had remained silent, finally spoke. “Vietnam has particular experience with great power pressure. We appreciate France’s vision, but we need concrete assurances about support when that pressure intensifies.”

Claire nodded gravely. “That’s exactly why we need collective mechanisms. Individually, any of our countries can be pressured or coerced. Together, we represent too much economic and strategic value to be ignored or bullied.”

Chapter 4: The Technology Frontier

The next phase of Claire’s diplomatic offensive focused on Singapore’s technological leadership. She arranged a visit to the Government Technology Agency, where she met with senior officials responsible for Singapore’s innovative city initiatives.

Dr. Lim Wei Ming, the agency’s director, provided Claire with a comprehensive overview of Singapore’s digital infrastructure. “Ambassador, Singapore’s approach to technology governance might serve as a model for your coalition. We’ve maintained technological sovereignty while staying connected to global networks.”

Claire was intrigued. “How do you balance innovation with security concerns?”

“We’ve developed what we call ‘sovereign interoperability,'” Dr. Lim explained. “We maintain control over critical systems while ensuring they can communicate with international partners. It’s not technological isolationism—it’s technological diplomacy.”

This concept resonated strongly with Claire’s understanding of Macron’s vision. “Dr. Lim, what if we could scale this approach across multiple countries? Create technological standards and practices that ensure sovereignty while enabling cooperation?”

“That would be revolutionary,” Dr. Lim admitted. Currently, countries must choose between American and Chinese technological ecosystems. A third option—a coalition of digital sovereignty—could fundamentally change the dynamics.”

Claire saw an opportunity. “Would Singapore be interested in hosting a coalition technology summit? We could bring together digital leaders from France, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, and other partners to develop common approaches.”

“Absolutely,” Dr. Lim replied. Singapore has always seen itself as a bridge between different technological worlds. This could be our most crucial bridging role yet.”

Chapter 5: The Security Dimension

Claire’s most delicate conversations involved defence and security cooperation. She met with Permanent Secretary for Defence Chan Yeng Kit at the Ministry of Defence (MINDEF) building to discuss the security implications of Macron’s coalition vision.

“Ambassador,” Chan began, “Singapore’s defence relationships are carefully calibrated. We maintain strong ties with the US through our strategic partnership, growing cooperation with China, and bilateral relationships throughout the region. How does the French initiative fit into this framework?”

Claire had anticipated this central question. “Permanent Secretary, we’re not asking Singapore to alter its existing security relationships. We’re proposing additional layers of cooperation that complement rather than replace current arrangements.”

She outlined France’s specific offerings: advanced submarine technology, cybersecurity cooperation, joint maritime patrols, and intelligence sharing on regional threats. “France brings capabilities that aren’t widely available—particularly in submarine warfare and cyber defense.”

Chan was intrigued but cautious. “These are attractive capabilities, but security cooperation implies security commitments. What are France’s expectations regarding mutual defence?”

“We’re not proposing a NATO-style collective defence arrangement,” Claire clarified. “We’re suggesting functional cooperation on specific threats—maritime security, cyber attacks, terrorism, and humanitarian crises. Each country retains full sovereignty over its security decisions.”

The conversation continued for two hours, exploring various scenarios and contingencies. By the end, Chan seemed cautiously optimistic. “Ambassador, this approach might work precisely because it doesn’t require choosing between existing partnerships. Singapore could be a test case for this model.”

Chapter 6: The Economic Foundation

Claire’s final major diplomatic initiative before Macron’s arrival involved Singapore’s economic leadership. She met with the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s Managing Director, Ravi Menon, to discuss the financial architecture for the proposed coalition.

“Ambassador,” Menon began, “Singapore’s financial sector serves as a bridge between Eastern and Western capital markets. How would your coalition affect these relationships?”

Claire had spent considerable time developing her economic arguments. “Ravi, we see Singapore’s role as expanding rather than constraining. Currently, Singapore channels flow between existing power centres. We’re proposing to create new centres of economic gravity.”

She outlined plans for a coalition investment fund, alternative trade financing mechanisms, and potentially a new development bank focused on meeting the infrastructure needs of middle powers. Of middle powers, “Singapore’s financial expertise would be essential for designing and managing these institutions.”

Menon was intrigued by the possibilities. “This could position Singapore as the financial hub for a new economic bloc. But we’d need guarantees that this wouldn’t jeopardise our relationships with American and Chinese financial institutions.”

“That’s why we’re designing these mechanisms to be complementary rather than competitive,” Claire explained. “The coalition investment fund, for example, could co-invest with American and Chinese institutions on specific projects. We’re not trying to replace existing systems—we’re trying to create alternatives that reduce over-dependence.”

The conversation revealed both the potential and the complexity of economic integration within Macron’s proposed coalition. Success would require careful balancing of multiple relationships and interests.

Chapter 7: The President Arrives

President Macron’s arrival in Singapore on May 29 marked the culmination of months of diplomatic preparation. Claire coordinated an intensive schedule of meetings, starting with Prime Minister Wong and extending to business leaders, academics, and representatives from civil society.

During the private dinner at the Istana, Macron and Wong discussed the broader implications of their partnership. “Prime Minister,” Macron said, “Singapore represents more than a strategic partner—you represent a model for how middle powers can maintain sovereignty while engaging globally.”

Wong appreciated the recognition but remained realistic about challenges. “Mr. President, Singapore’s success depends on careful balance. Your coalition vision is attractive, but implementation will test every diplomatic skill we possess.”

Macron nodded thoughtfully. “That’s why we’re starting with Singapore. If we can demonstrate that this partnership enhances rather than constrains Singapore’s strategic autonomy, other countries will follow.”

Claire watched the exchange with satisfaction. Months of groundwork enabled a substantive conversation about shared interests and mutual benefits, rather than abstract geopolitical theories.

Chapter 8: The Shangri-La Moment

The morning of May 30 brought the culmination of Claire’s diplomatic efforts. As Macron prepared for his keynote address at the Shangri-La Dialogue, Claire reflected on the journey that had brought them to this moment.

The Shangri-La Dialogue represented Asia’s premier security forum, bringing together defence ministers, military leaders, and strategic thinkers from across the region. Macron’s address would be scrutinised not just for its vision, but also for its practical implications.

In the green room before his speech, Macron reviewed his notes one final time. “Claire,” he said, “your work over the past months has been exceptional. The relationships you’ve built, the trust you’ve established—that’s what gives credibility to our vision.”

Claire felt the weight of responsibility. “Mr. President, the real test begins now. Your speech will launch the initiative, but success depends on our ability to deliver on the promises we’re making.”

As Macron took the stage, Claire watched from the audience as he outlined his vision for a “positive new alliance between Europe and Asia.” The speech was well-received, but Claire knew that diplomatic success would be measured not in applause but in the concrete steps taken in the months and years ahead.

Chapter 9: The Response

The immediate response to Macron’s address was cautiously optimistic. Asian diplomats appreciated the recognition of their strategic importance and the offer of partnership without subordination. However, Claire knew that initial enthusiasm would need to be transformed into institutional commitments.

In the days following the speech, Claire found herself inundated with requests for clarification and elaboration. Countries wanted to understand the specific benefits of participation and the concrete mechanisms for cooperation.

Her meeting with ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn was particularly significant. “Ambassador,” Kao said, “ASEAN has always emphasised sovereignty and non-interference. How does the French initiative align with these principles?”

Claire had prepared carefully for this conversation. “Secretary-General, France’s proposal actually reinforces ASEAN principles by providing alternatives to great power dependence. The coalition would operate on consensus, respect sovereignty, and focus on mutual benefit rather than ideological alignment.”

The conversation revealed both opportunities and challenges. ASEAN’s institutional experience can provide valuable lessons for coalition-building, but the organisation’s consensus-based decision-making process could also slow down implementation.

Chapter 10: Building Momentum

In the weeks following Macron’s visit to Singapore, Claire worked to maintain momentum for the coalition initiative. She organised follow-up meetings, coordinated working groups on specific issues, and facilitated discussions between potential partners.

The technology summit Dr. Lim had proposed became a concrete first step. Singapore agreed to host a coalition technology forum in September, bringing together digital leaders from across the proposed partnership. This would provide an opportunity to develop practical cooperation mechanisms while building relationships between key officials.

Similarly, the defence cooperation discussions with Permanent Secretary Chan led to plans for a maritime security exercise involving French, Singaporean, and Indian naval forces. This would demonstrate the coalition’s practical capabilities while avoiding the sensitivities associated with broader military alliances.

Claire’s economic initiatives with Ravi Menon evolved into detailed proposals for a coalition trade and investment framework. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank provided a potential model, but the coalition framework would focus on the infrastructure needs of middle powers and technological sovereignty.

Chapter 11: Managing Expectations

As enthusiasm for the coalition initiative grew, Claire found herself managing increasingly complex expectations and concerns. Some partners sought the rapid implementation of comprehensive agreements, while others preferred the gradual development of specific cooperation mechanisms.

Her conversation with Australian High Commissioner Sarah Chen illustrated these challenges. “Claire,” Sarah said, “Australia is interested in the coalition vision, but we have extensive security commitments with the United States. How do we balance these relationships?”

This question went to the heart of the coalition’s design philosophy. “Sarah,” Claire replied, “we’re not asking anyone to choose between existing relationships and new partnerships. The coalition is designed to complement rather than replace existing arrangements.”

She explained that the coalition’s strength lay precisely in its flexibility and inclusivity. Countries could participate in specific initiatives without comprehensive commitments, allowing them to manage multiple relationships simultaneously.

Chapter 12: The Long Game

As her assignment in Singapore continued, Claire increasingly came to understand that the coalition initiative represented a long-term transformation of international relations rather than a short-term diplomatic achievement. Success would be measured in decades rather than months.

Her regular meetings with Prime Minister Wong reflected this long-term perspective. “Ambassador,” Wong said during one of their conversations, “Singapore’s partnership with France is already producing concrete benefits. The question is whether we can scale this model across the broader coalition.”

Claire had been thinking extensively about scalability. “Prime Minister, each bilateral relationship within the coalition strengthens the whole. Singapore’s partnership with France, India’s cooperation with Indonesia, Vietnam’s ties with European partners—these create a web of relationships that becomes more valuable than any single connection.”

This network effect was perhaps the coalition’s greatest strength. Unlike traditional alliances based on hierarchical relationships with a dominant power, the coalition would derive strength from horizontal connections between equal partners.

Epilogue: The Future Unfolds

Six months after Macron’s Shangri-La address, Claire reflected on the progress achieved and challenges ahead. The Singapore model had indeed proven successful—the comprehensive strategic partnership was producing concrete benefits in trade, technology, and security cooperation.

Other countries were beginning to negotiate similar arrangements with France and other European partners. India and France had signed a comprehensive technology cooperation agreement. Indonesia and Germany were developing a renewable energy partnership. Vietnam and the Netherlands were cooperating on sustainable agriculture.

The coalition was taking shape not through grand treaties but through a growing network of practical partnerships addressing specific needs and interests. This approach was proving more durable than traditional alliance structures because it was based on mutual benefit rather than external threats.

Standing at her embassy window, watching the sunset over Marina Bay, Claire felt cautiously optimistic about the future. Macron’s vision was becoming reality through patient diplomacy, careful relationship-building, and a deep understanding of what middle powers needed to thrive in an increasingly complex world.

The architect of understanding had helped lay the foundation for a new international architecture—one that promised to give countries like Singapore greater agency in shaping their own destiny while maintaining the relationships that had enabled their success.

Singapore’s transformation from a colonial outpost to a city-state provided a template for the broader transformation Macron envisioned—a shift from a world of great power dominance to one of genuine multipolarity, where middle powers could chart their own course while working together to address common challenges.

The future remained uncertain, but the foundation had been laid for a more balanced and sustainable international order. And in Singapore, at the crossroads of Asia, the future was already beginning to unfold.

French President Emmanuel Macron is currently on a state visit to Singapore (May 29-30, 2025) to strengthen diplomatic ties and sign cooperation agreements in several key areas.

Key highlights of the visit:

Cooperation Areas: France and Singapore will exchange memoranda of understanding covering defence and security, law, artificial intelligence, and transport sectors.

Historic Significance: This visit commemorates 60 years of diplomatic relations between Singapore and France. Macron will also make history as the first European leader to deliver the keynote speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue on May 30.

Cultural Diplomacy: On his first evening, Macron joined Prime Minister Lawrence Wong for a visit to Lau Pa Sat hawker centre, where they sampled local dishes like chee cheong fun and char kway teow while meeting with diners.

Official Schedule: The visit includes a ceremonial welcome at Parliament House, meetings with President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, and a state banquet.

Regional Context: This is Macron’s broader Southeast Asian tour, following visits to Vietnam (where he secured Airbus deals) and Indonesia (where he signed a preliminary defence pact).

High-Level Delegation: Macron is accompanied by several French ministers, including those responsible for the economy, defence, foreign affairs, culture, and AI and digital affairs.

The visit underscores France’s growing strategic interest in Southeast Asia’s pivotal role as a key partner in the region, particularly in emerging areas such as artificial intelligence cooperation.

Macron’s Strategic Goals and Impact on France’s

France’s Strategic Goals in Singapore

1. Positioning France as the “Third Option” in Great Power Competition

French President Emmanuel Macron will travel to Southeast Asia to pitch France and Europe as reliable partners with “no strings attached”. The US and China use more aggressive ways to gain Influence in the region. Macron to pitch France as a reliable alternative on Asia tour amid US-China rivalry | Reuters. This visit reflects France’s broader strategy to offer itself as an alternative to the intensifying US-China rivalry, particularly appealing to middle powers like Singapore that prefer strategic autonomy.

2. Economic and Defence Diversification: France’s approach

France’s approach mirrors its successful engagements elsewhere in the region. France and Vietnam signed a deal for 20 Airbus planes, among other pacts, as Macron visited Hanoi, demonstrating how France combines civilian technology with defence cooperation. The timing is strategic, as Southeast Asian nations seek to diversify their defence partnerships beyond the US.

Technology Leadership in AI and Innovation

The AI cooperation agreement builds on existing foundations. The SAFARI (Singapore-Franceanced Research Initiative) agreement is a framework for cooperation between France and Singapore in defence research, science, an,d technology. Since 1997, it has enabled more than 70 joint projects between Singapore and France’s Defence Ministries to establish the First Joint R&D Lab in Singapore to Develop Artificial Intelligence Capabilities. This historical partnership provides credibility for expanding into civilian AI applications.

4. Leveraging Singapore as the Regia regional Hub

By making Singapore the culmination of his Southeast Asian tour and choosing it as the venue for his historic Shangri-La Dialogue keynote, Macron’s recognition of Singapore as a regional diplomatic and business hub.

Impact on Singapore: Strategic Benefits and Implications

Immediate Strategic Gains:

1. Enhanced Strategic Autonomy Singapore gains additional options in its careful balancing act between major powers. With the US as its security partner and China as its largest trading partner, France offers a European pathway that supports Singapore’s alignment strategy without forcing difficult choices.

2. Advanced Technology Access The AI cooperation agreement is particularly significant in Singapore’s efforts to become a global AI hub. Singapore has introduced new AI governance initiatives that bring together international partners to take concrete actions to strengthen global AI trust and accountability. The SG announces new AI Safety initiatives at the global AI Action Summit in France. French expertise in areas like defence applications and Singapore’s technological capabilities.

3. Defence Modernisation The defence agreements provide access to French military technology and expertise, supplementing Singapore’s capabilities with additional Israeli suppliers. This is crucial as Singapore modernises its armed forces.

4. Economic Opportunities The transport and trade agreements open new avenues for Singapore companies to access European markets through France, while potentially attracting French investment in Singapore’s transport and logistics sectors.

Long-term Strategic Implications:

1. Strengthened Middle Power Coalition Building. This partnership enhances Singapore’s ability to build coalitions of middle powers that can navigate great power competition more effectively. Singapore can leverage its Francophone to strengthen ties with other European nations.

2. Enhanced Diplomatic Prestige Hosting a historic first European at the i-La Dialogue. Singapore is a neutral venue for major diplomatic initiatives, potentially attracting more high-level summits and diplomatic events.

3. Innovation Ecosystem Development T: The partnership aids national innovation hub, particularly in areas where European standards and approaches are more aligned with Singapore’s or China’s models

Potential Challenges and Considerations:

1. Managing Great Power Sensitivities Singapore must carefully balance this French engagement to avoid triggering the US as its security guarantor. Or China (its largest and most significant partner, with strings attached), framing helps, but Implementation will require diplomatic finesse.

2. Resource Allocation Expanding partnerships require bureaucratic resources, and a strong Singaporean civil service must prioritise aspects of the France relationship to develop most actively.

3. Expectations of France’s ambitious regional strategy may create expectations for Singapore to play a more active role in European initiatives in Asia, which Singapore may need to manage carefully, given its non-aligned principles.

Broader Regional Context

This visit reflects Franctoe’s recognition that Southeast Asia is becoming increasingly central to global geopolitics. For Singapore, it validates its strategy of remaining relevant to multiple great powers simultaneously. The success of this partnership could serve as a model for how middle powers can engage with secondary global powers to enhance their strategic options without compromising their core relationships.

The emphasis on AI cooperation is particularly noteworthy, as it represents a new frontier where European approaches to regulation and ethics may offer Singapore alternatives to the more commercially driven model or state-directed Chinese models, such as those proposed by Macron.

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