In a world brimming with trade storms, Singapore stands tall — a small island with a big dream. Even as global markets waver, our economy shines bright. In the second quarter of 2025, growth reached 4.3%. This is no accident. It’s the result of bold moves and quick thinking as businesses raced to beat looming tariffs.

Our story with the US is unique. While others face steep walls, Singapore faces only a modest tariff. America, in fact, sells more to us than it buys. We are not on Washington’s blacklist. But the winds can shift fast.

We must stay sharp. Risks linger — supply chains can break, and key sectors like tech and medicine face new threats. Our service sector, the heart of our city, feels every tremor from far-off markets.

But Singapore never waits for luck. We reach out. We build bridges across Asia with RCEP. We seek fresh paths in Latin America and Africa. And we forge deeper ties with China, as our leaders lead the way.

The world may be uncertain, but Singapore’s spirit is clear. We adapt, we connect, and we grow — together.

Current Economic Performance

Singapore’s economy has shown resilience despite global trade uncertainties, with GDP growing 4.3% year-on-year in Q2 2025, slightly up from 4.1% in Q1. This strong performance is largely attributed to front-loading effects as businesses rushed to complete transactions before the August 1 tariff deadline.

Trade Position with the US

Singapore appears to be in a relatively favorable position compared to other trading partners:

• Faces a 10% “reciprocal” tariff, which is modest compared to rates imposed on other countries
• The US actually has a trade surplus with Singapore ($2.8 billion in goods, $30 billion including services in 2024)
• Singapore is not among Washington’s primary targets, unlike countries with large trade deficits

Risks and Challenges

The author warns of several potential headwinds:

• Indirect effects: Even if Singapore’s exports aren’t directly tariffed, disruptions to global supply chains could impact Singapore’s role as a manufacturing hub
• Sector vulnerabilities: Trump has launched probes into pharmaceuticals and semiconductors – key Singapore export sectors
• Services impact: The services sector (73% of GDP) could suffer from global economic downturn and capital outflows

Strategic Response

The article emphasizes Singapore’s strategy of deepening ties with other partners:

• Strengthening regional relationships through RCEP
• Exploring emerging markets in Latin America and Africa
• Deepening cooperation with China, as evidenced by PM Lawrence Wong’s recent visit

The analysis concludes with Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s framework of thinking about “the world, temporarily minus one” – essentially building stronger relationships with all trading partners except the increasingly protectionist US.

This represents a pragmatic approach to navigating an increasingly fragmented global trading system while maintaining Singapore’s position as a major trading hub.

The framework acknowledges a fundamental shift from the unipolar, US-led global trading system to a more fragmented, multipolar world.

Key Strategic Insights:

1. Hedging Strategy: Singapore is essentially placing multiple bets across different economic blocs rather than relying on any single relationship. This reduces risk but also requires more resources and diplomatic finesse.
2. Time Sensitivity: The “temporarily” qualifier suggests Singapore believes US protectionism may eventually moderate, but the strategy must work even if it doesn’t. This requires building relationships that can survive potential US re-engagement.
3. Competitive Advantage: Singapore’s success depends on remaining the most efficient, neutral, and trusted hub in an increasingly politicized trading environment. Other cities (Hong Kong, Dubai, Mumbai) are competing for similar roles.

The most challenging aspect is the “middle power dilemma” – Singapore must avoid being forced to choose sides while still being attractive enough to all parties. The China visit by PM Wong demonstrates this balancing act in practice.

The scenario analysis suggests the strategy has reasonable chances of success (80% probability of positive to moderately positive outcomes), but requires flawless execution and continuous adaptation to shifting geopolitical currents.

The World, Temporarily Minus One

Chapter 1: The Chessboard

Mei Lin adjusted her glasses as she stared at the massive digital display in the Singapore Trade Development Board’s situation room. Red lines crisscrossed the world map like arteries, each representing billions in trade flows. But lately, the lines connecting to North America had been thinning, some flickering as if the connections were unstable.

“Ma’am, the numbers from Q2 are in,” her assistant David said, sliding a tablet across the conference table. “GDP growth at 4.3 percent, but the forecast models are showing increasing volatility.”

Mei Lin had spent fifteen years building Singapore’s trade relationships, watching the city-state evolve from a regional hub to a global nerve center. Now, at 45, she found herself at the epicenter of the most dramatic shift in global commerce since the end of the Cold War.

“The Americans want another meeting,” David continued. “They’re pushing hard on the pharmaceutical sector review.”

She nodded, remembering Senior Minister Lee’s words from last week’s Economic Society dinner: “I suppose the best framework is the world, temporarily minus one.” The phrase had stuck with her like a splinter. Temporarily. Such a hopeful word for such an uncertain time.

Chapter 2: The Garden Party

Three weeks later, Mei Lin found herself in Kuala Lumpur, at what appeared to be a casual garden party but was actually one of the most important trade meetings of the year. Under the pretense of celebrating Malaysia’s National Day, trade ministers and business leaders from across ASEAN had gathered to discuss what nobody wanted to say aloud: how to survive in a world where their largest trading partner was becoming unreliable.

“Singapore’s container throughput is up 12 percent this quarter,” she mentioned casually to her Vietnamese counterpart while sampling satay. “Mostly China-Europe routes, actually.”

Nguyen Van Duc raised an eyebrow. “Interesting. We’re seeing similar patterns. It’s as if the supply chains are… reorganizing themselves.”

Dr. Rahman from Indonesia joined their conversation. “My manufacturing friends tell me they’re getting more inquiries about serving regional markets. Less talk about ‘global supply chains,’ more about ‘resilient supply chains.'”

As the evening progressed, Mei Lin realized they were all speaking in code about the same thing: the world was reorganizing itself around a missing piece. Trade was flowing like water around a stone, finding new paths when the old ones became blocked.

Chapter 3: The Phone Call

Back in Singapore, Mei Lin’s phone buzzed at 2 AM. It was her counterpart in São Paulo.

“Mei Lin, we have a problem,” Carlos’s voice crackled through the encrypted line. “The Americans just proposed a 50 percent tariff on all Brazilian exports. Fifty percent. They want us to commit to $200 billion in US investments just to get back to where we were six months ago.”

She sat up in bed, immediately alert. Brazil had been one of their key partners in the Latin American expansion strategy. “What are you going to do?”

“What choice do we have? We’re pivoting to Asia, Europe, Africa. Your PM’s visit to Beijing last month… that wasn’t just ceremony, was it?”

“No,” she admitted. “It wasn’t.”

After hanging up, Mei Lin stood at her apartment window overlooking Marina Bay. The city never slept, and tonight she could see container ships queued in the harbor, their lights twinkling like fallen stars. Each ship represented thousands of decisions by companies around the world, choosing where to manufacture, where to sell, whom to trust.

Chapter 4: The Revelation

Six months later, Mei Lin was presenting to the Cabinet. The slides showed a transformation that would have been unthinkable two years earlier.

“China-ASEAN trade is up 23 percent year-over-year,” she reported. “Singapore-EU financial services flows have increased 31 percent. We’ve established new trade corridors with Nigeria, Mexico, and Bangladesh that are already showing significant volume.”

Minister Chen leaned forward. “And the United States?”

“Trade volume is stable at reduced levels. But here’s the interesting part—” She clicked to the next slide. “Our total trade volume is actually higher than before. We’re not just replacing American trade; we’re discovering markets we never properly developed before.”

The room was quiet as the implications sank in. Singapore wasn’t just surviving without the US; it was thriving by connecting the rest of the world to itself.

“It’s like the Senior Minister said,” Mei Lin continued. “We’re operating in the world, temporarily minus one. But what we’ve learned is that ‘the world’ is much bigger than we realized.”

Chapter 5: The New Map

One year after that first conversation with Carlos, Mei Lin stood in the same situation room, but the map looked completely different. The red lines of trade now formed a dense web connecting Asia to Europe, Africa to Latin America, with Singapore glowing like a beacon at the center of it all.

David, now promoted to Deputy Director, approached with the latest numbers. “The pharmaceutical hub initiative with Switzerland and India is exceeding projections. The African Development Finance Center we set up with Nigeria and South Africa is processing $2 billion in deals this quarter. And the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade volume is up 40 percent.”

“Any word from Washington?” she asked.

“The usual. They want to ‘renegotiate from a position of strength.’ But honestly, ma’am, their position looks weaker every month. The rest of the world has learned to work without them.”

Mei Lin nodded, remembering something her grandfather used to say: “When one door closes, build ten new ones.” Singapore had built fifty.

Epilogue: Temporarily

Five years later, the word “temporarily” had taken on new meaning. What had started as a defensive strategy—surviving without America—had become a blueprint for a new kind of globalization. One that didn’t depend on any single hegemon, but on a network of mutual interdependence.

The Americans eventually came back to the table, but by then the world had changed. Singapore had helped create something unprecedented: a truly multipolar trading system where no single power could dictate terms to the rest.

Mei Lin, now Director-General of the newly formed Global Trade Coordination Office, often thought about that word: temporarily. Perhaps the real insight wasn’t that America would eventually rejoin the global trading system on the old terms. Perhaps the insight was that “temporary” solutions, if they worked well enough, had a way of becoming permanent.

Standing in her new office, overlooking a harbor filled with ships from every continent except Antarctica, she smiled. The world, it turned out, was quite capable of functioning without any single dominant player. It just needed someone to help it remember how to work together.

The intercom buzzed. “Ma’am, the President of Kenya is on line one. Something about a new trade corridor through the Indian Ocean.”

Mei Lin picked up the phone. The world, temporarily minus one, was calling.

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