The domestic progress is noteworthy. China has been adding more solar capacity annually than the rest of the world combined since 2021, and in April 2025, its renewable energy capacity exceeded thermal power capacity for the first time. This represents a potential turning point that could strengthen China’s position as a climate leader.

However, the international picture complicates this narrative. China’s mining and mineral extraction investments abroad have reached record levels, with nearly $25 billion poured into metals and mining in just the first half of 2025. These projects, spanning from Kazakhstan to Indonesia to the Democratic Republic of Congo, often involve significant environmental costs including deforestation, water pollution, and toxic waste disposal in communities with weaker environmental regulations.

The article raises important questions about “environmental imperialism” – whether China is essentially outsourcing its environmental costs to poorer countries while cleaning up at home. This mirrors what other developed nations have done historically, but China’s unique position as both the world’s largest polluter and largest clean technology producer gives it outsized influence and responsibility.

The solution isn’t necessarily to halt these mineral extraction projects, as these materials are essential for the global clean energy transition. Rather, experts suggest China should apply its domestic environmental standards to overseas projects, particularly in countries with weaker regulations. This would help China maintain credibility as a climate leader while supporting the global transition to clean energy in a more equitable way.

The stakes extend beyond environmental concerns to include reputational risks and potential conflicts with local communities, which could ultimately undermine China’s strategic objectives in these regions.

China’s Climate Paradox: Deep Analysis and Singapore’s Strategic Position

The Mechanics of China’s Climate Paradox

China’s climate strategy represents one of the most complex geopolitical and environmental challenges of our time. The paradox operates on multiple levels that reveal fundamental tensions in global climate governance.

Domestic Decoupling Success China’s 1% emissions decline while electricity demand grows represents a genuine structural shift. This isn’t merely efficiency gains – it’s a fundamental rewiring of the economy where renewable energy (solar, wind, nuclear) is displacing fossil fuels at scale. The achievement of solar and wind capacity exceeding thermal capacity in April 2025 marks a historic inflection point that validates decades of industrial policy and massive state investment in clean technology.

This decoupling challenges the traditional development model where economic growth inherently meant higher emissions. China is proving that a major industrial economy can maintain growth while reducing carbon output – a critical precedent for global climate action.

The Resource Security Imperative However, China’s clean energy transition paradoxically requires massive mineral inputs – lithium for batteries, rare earth elements for wind turbines and solar panels, copper for electrical infrastructure, and cobalt for electric vehicle batteries. This creates an inescapable dependency on resource extraction, much of which must occur overseas due to geological constraints.

The $25 billion in mining investments in the first half of 2025 alone reflects China’s strategic calculation that controlling upstream supply chains is essential for maintaining its clean technology leadership. This isn’t just about economics – it’s about national security and technological sovereignty in an era of great power competition.

Environmental Burden Shifting The paradox deepens when considering that China is effectively exporting environmental costs to countries with weaker governance structures. Mining operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Indonesia, and Myanmar create local environmental devastation while enabling China’s domestic environmental improvements. This represents a sophisticated form of “pollution haven” strategy where environmental costs are geographically separated from economic benefits.

Singapore’s Strategic Position and Implications

Singapore’s relationship with China’s climate paradox is multifaceted and strategically critical, operating across several dimensions:

Financial Hub for Green Transition Singapore has positioned itself as Asia’s premier green finance hub, with ambitions to channel hundreds of billions in sustainable investments across the region. China’s Belt and Road Initiative projects – both the problematic mining investments and legitimate green infrastructure – flow through Singapore’s financial ecosystem.

This creates both opportunity and risk. Singapore benefits from transaction fees, advisory services, and capital flows, but also faces reputational risks if it’s seen as enabling environmentally destructive projects. The challenge lies in maintaining its role as a neutral financial center while upholding increasingly stringent ESG standards demanded by global investors.

Supply Chain Dependencies Singapore’s economy is deeply integrated with China’s supply chains, particularly in electronics, petrochemicals, and increasingly, green technology. The city-state imports substantial quantities of solar panels, batteries, and other clean tech from China for re-export throughout Southeast Asia.

China’s control over critical mineral supply chains has direct implications for Singapore’s industrial clusters. Any disruption in Chinese mineral supply – whether from geopolitical tensions or environmental protests in source countries – could impact Singapore’s manufacturing and trading activities.

Regional Environmental Governance As ASEAN chair in 2025, Singapore must navigate the complex environmental politics of Chinese investments across Southeast Asia. The nickel mining operations in Indonesia, rare earth extraction in Myanmar, and various infrastructure projects across the region all involve Singapore in some capacity – whether through financing, logistics, or diplomatic mediation.

Singapore faces a delicate balancing act: maintaining strong economic ties with China while addressing legitimate environmental concerns from ASEAN partners affected by Chinese mining and infrastructure projects.

The Green Finance Dilemma Singapore’s green finance sector must grapple with definitional challenges around what constitutes “sustainable” investment. Chinese companies involved in both clean technology manufacturing and environmentally problematic mining operations seek capital in Singapore’s markets.

The taxonomy question becomes critical: Should investments in Chinese solar panel manufacturers be considered green if those same companies source materials from environmentally destructive mines? Singapore’s financial regulators must develop frameworks that account for these supply chain complexities.

Technology Transfer and Innovation Singapore has become a testing ground for Chinese clean technologies, from electric vehicle charging infrastructure to smart grid systems. However, the city-state must consider the embedded environmental costs of these technologies, including their mineral inputs and manufacturing processes.

The government’s Smart Nation initiative increasingly relies on Chinese clean tech, creating dependencies that extend beyond immediate economic benefits to longer-term strategic considerations about technological sovereignty and environmental responsibility.

Diplomatic Positioning Singapore’s foreign policy emphasizes multilateralism and rules-based international order, but China’s climate paradox challenges these principles. How can Singapore advocate for global climate action while hosting financial and logistical infrastructure that enables environmentally problematic Chinese investments?

The city-state must develop more nuanced diplomatic approaches that acknowledge the complexity of the global energy transition while maintaining its commitment to environmental sustainability and good governance.

Strategic Implications for Singapore

Policy Innovation Requirements Singapore needs more sophisticated policy frameworks that can differentiate between beneficial and harmful aspects of China’s global climate strategy. This might involve:

Enhanced due diligence requirements for green finance products
Supply chain transparency mandates for clean technology imports
Engagement with Chinese companies to improve their overseas environmental practices
Development of alternative financing mechanisms for genuinely sustainable projects

Economic Diversification Imperatives While maintaining beneficial aspects of the China relationship, Singapore must reduce vulnerabilities created by over-dependence on Chinese supply chains. This involves:

Developing alternative sources for critical materials and technologies
Strengthening ties with other clean technology producers (European, American, Japanese)
Investing in domestic research and development capabilities
Building regional partnerships that reduce collective dependence on Chinese supply chains

Leadership Opportunities Singapore could position itself as a leader in addressing the global climate paradox by:

Developing international standards for responsible mining and supply chain management
Creating financial instruments that account for full lifecycle environmental impacts
Facilitating dialogue between Chinese companies and affected communities
Advocating for stronger environmental governance in international forums

The ultimate challenge for Singapore lies in navigating China’s climate paradox without compromising its own environmental commitments or regional relationships. This requires unprecedented policy sophistication and diplomatic skill, but also presents opportunities to shape global norms around responsible climate action in the 21st century.

Scenario Analysis: Singapore’s Navigation of China’s Climate Paradox

Scenario 1: The “Green Finance Gate” Crisis (2026-2027)

Trigger Event: A major environmental disaster at a Chinese-funded nickel mine in Indonesia kills dozens and contaminates water supplies for 100,000 people. Investigation reveals the project was financed through Singapore-based funds marketed as “green investments.”

Immediate Impacts:

International media spotlight on Singapore as an enabler of “greenwashing”
European and American institutional investors withdraw $50 billion from Singapore-domiciled green funds
Indonesia temporarily suspends cooperation on renewable energy projects with Singapore
Malaysian and Thai governments question Singapore’s environmental commitments during ASEAN meetings

Singapore’s Response Options:

Reactive Approach: Emergency regulatory changes, public apologies, compensation funds

Risk: Seen as crisis management rather than principled leadership
Outcome: Short-term damage control but long-term credibility issues

Transformative Approach: Launch the “Singapore Standards for Responsible Green Finance”

Mandatory supply chain impact assessments for all green-labeled investments
Creation of an independent monitoring body with regional representation
Establishment of a $10 billion fund for environmental restoration in affected communities
Outcome: Singapore emerges as a leader in authentic sustainable finance

Long-term Implications: This scenario tests whether Singapore can transform crisis into leadership opportunity, potentially reshaping global green finance standards.

Scenario 2: The “Critical Minerals Squeeze” (2027-2028)

Trigger Event: A coalition of African nations, supported by Western governments, imposes restrictions on Chinese mining operations. China retaliates by limiting exports of processed critical minerals, causing global supply chain disruptions.

Cascade Effects on Singapore:

Solar panel and battery imports for Southeast Asian markets drop 60%
Singapore’s electronics manufacturing sector faces component shortages
Regional infrastructure projects dependent on Chinese materials are delayed
Energy transition timelines across ASEAN are pushed back by 3-5 years

Strategic Response Scenarios:

Scenario 2A: “Neutral Facilitator” Singapore positions itself as a mediator between China and affected African nations

Hosts international conference on responsible mining practices
Offers technical expertise and financing for improved mining standards
Creates multilateral fund for environmental remediation
Risk: May be seen as legitimizing problematic practices rather than addressing root causes

Scenario 2B: “Alternative Architecture Builder” Singapore leads creation of alternative supply chains and standards

Partners with Australia, Canada, and Chile to develop new mineral supply routes
Invests heavily in recycling technologies and circular economy solutions
Creates regional stockpiles of critical materials with ASEAN partners
Develops blockchain-based supply chain tracking systems
Risk: Potential Chinese economic retaliation and loss of market access

Policy Innovation Requirements:

Emergency economic diversification programs
Accelerated research into mineral alternatives and recycling
Enhanced regional cooperation mechanisms
New financial instruments for supply chain resilience

Scenario 3: The “ASEAN Environmental Revolt” (2028-2029)

Trigger Event: Popular protests across Indonesia, Myanmar, and the Philippines against Chinese mining operations escalate into a regional movement. Several ASEAN governments face domestic pressure to restrict Chinese investments.

Singapore’s Dilemma: As ASEAN’s financial hub, Singapore finds itself caught between:

Chinese companies seeking to maintain regional investments through Singapore-based subsidiaries
Regional partners demanding stronger environmental standards and community protections
International investors requiring clear ESG compliance frameworks

Response Scenarios:

Scenario 3A: “Diplomatic Balancing Act” Singapore attempts to satisfy all parties through incremental reforms

Gradual tightening of environmental standards
Facilitation of dialogue between Chinese companies and local communities
Creation of grievance mechanisms and compensation frameworks
Risk: Satisfies no one fully; seen as weak leadership during regional crisis

Scenario 3B: “Values-Based Leadership” Singapore takes a principled stance prioritizing environmental justice

Implements strict environmental and social governance requirements for all regional investments
Creates legal mechanisms for affected communities to seek redress in Singapore courts
Establishes independent monitoring of all Singapore-financed projects
Partners with civil society organizations for project oversight
Risk: Chinese economic retaliation; potential loss of financial hub status

Scenario 3C: “Technological Solution Focus” Singapore leverages its smart nation capabilities to address the crisis

Deploys AI-powered environmental monitoring systems across the region
Creates real-time transparency platforms for mining operations
Develops satellite-based tracking of environmental impacts
Offers technological solutions to improve mining practices
Risk: May be seen as techno-solutionism that ignores deeper political issues

Scenario 4: The “Great Power Collision” (2029-2030)

Trigger Event: US-China tensions over climate and technology reach a breaking point. The US imposes comprehensive sanctions on Chinese clean technology companies, while China restricts critical mineral exports to Western allies.

Singapore’s Complex Position:

Major Chinese clean tech companies threaten to relocate from Singapore if city-state complies with US sanctions
European and American partners demand Singapore choose sides
Regional partners look to Singapore for leadership in maintaining neutrality
Domestic businesses face impossible compliance requirements

Strategic Options:

Scenario 4A: “Switzerland of Asia” Singapore declares strict neutrality and creates separate systems

Establishes parallel financial systems for different geopolitical blocs
Creates “clean room” facilities for technology transfers
Develops neutral arbitration mechanisms for international disputes
Maintains economic relationships with all parties through careful compartmentalization

Scenario 4B: “Third Way Pioneer” Singapore leads creation of a non-aligned sustainable development bloc

Partners with middle powers (South Korea, Australia, UAE, Brazil) to create alternative systems
Develops independent standards and certification systems
Creates new multilateral institutions focused on sustainable development
Offers alternative to both US and Chinese approaches

Scenario 4C: “Regional Champion” Singapore prioritizes ASEAN unity and regional solutions

Leads creation of ASEAN-wide environmental and technology standards
Develops regional supply chains independent of great power competition
Creates ASEAN fund for sustainable development
Risk: May lack sufficient scale to be effective against great power pressure

Cross-Scenario Strategic Preparations

Institutional Innovations Required:

Dynamic Regulatory Framework: Policies that can adapt quickly to changing geopolitical and environmental conditions without sacrificing core principles
Multi-Track Diplomacy: Separate channels for economic, environmental, and security discussions to prevent spillover effects
Early Warning Systems: Intelligence and monitoring capabilities to anticipate crises before they fully develop
Rapid Response Mechanisms: Pre-authorized emergency powers and procedures to respond quickly to supply chain or financial disruptions
Alliance Diversification: Strategic partnerships that reduce dependence on any single power while maintaining beneficial relationships

Key Success Factors Across Scenarios:

Authenticity: Singapore’s responses must align with stated values and long-term interests
Proactivity: Leading rather than merely reacting to crises
Innovation: Developing new models rather than simply adapting existing ones
Inclusivity: Ensuring all stakeholders have voice in decision-making processes
Resilience: Building systems that can withstand various types of pressure

The Ultimate Test: Whether Singapore can maintain its prosperity and strategic autonomy while genuinely contributing to global climate solutions and environmental justice. Success requires threading the needle between pragmatic economic interests and principled environmental leadership – a challenge that will define Singapore’s role in the emerging multipolar world order.

Each scenario tests different aspects of Singapore’s diplomatic skill, policy innovation capacity, and commitment to stated values. The city-state’s responses will likely determine not only its own future but also set precedents for how middle powers can navigate great power competition while addressing global challenges.

The Tipping Point: A Singapore Story

Chapter 1: The Morning After

The notification came at 3:47 AM Singapore time. Dr. Mei Chen, Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s Green Finance Division, felt her secure phone buzz against the nightstand. Even before she opened her eyes, she knew this wasn’t routine market volatility.

“Environmental disaster at Sulawesi nickel operation. 47 confirmed dead. Singapore-domiciled Green Future Fund major investor. International media picking up story. Emergency cabinet meeting 6 AM.”

Mei sat up in bed, her mind racing. The Sulawesi project—she remembered the due diligence meetings, the glossy presentations about “sustainable mining practices,” the Indonesian government’s assurances. Now those assurances were literally buried under a collapsed tailings dam.

By 5:30 AM, she was in her office at One Raffles Quay, watching the global markets react in real-time. European sustainable funds were hemorrhaging value. The hashtag #SingaporeGreenwashing was trending worldwide. Her secure line rang—it was James Morrison, head of sustainable investments at Norway’s sovereign wealth fund.

“Mei, we need to talk. Our board is asking hard questions about our Singapore allocations.”

She closed her eyes. Norway’s fund alone represented $15 billion in green investments channeled through Singapore. If they pulled out…

“James, give me 48 hours. We’re not just going to manage this crisis—we’re going to solve it.”

Chapter 2: The War Room

The Istana’s crisis management center hadn’t seen this level of activity since the 2020 pandemic. Prime Minister Lee Wei Ming stood before a wall of screens displaying everything from commodity prices to social media sentiment. Around the table sat the city-state’s most senior officials: the Foreign Minister, the Trade and Industry Minister, the central bank governor, and a dozen others.

“Options,” the PM said simply.

Foreign Minister Sarah Tan spoke first. “We can contain this through traditional crisis management. Issue statements, tighten regulations marginally, wait for the news cycle to move on.”

“And the long-term cost?” asked the PM.

“Singapore’s reputation as a responsible financial center takes a permanent hit. We lose our competitive edge in green finance just as the sector becomes dominant globally.”

Economic Development Board Chairman Raj Patel leaned forward. “Or we use this as a catalyst. We’ve been talking about creating Singapore Standards for sustainable finance. This forces our hand—in a good way.”

“Explain,” said the PM.

Mei opened her tablet. “We don’t just respond to this crisis—we transform the entire global system. Singapore becomes the first country to require full supply chain impact assessments for any investment labeled ‘sustainable.’ We create an independent monitoring body with real teeth. We establish legal pathways for affected communities to seek redress in Singapore courts.”

The room fell silent. Trade Minister David Lim spoke first: “You’re talking about revolutionizing how international finance works. Beijing won’t like this.”

“Beijing’s already dealing with domestic pressure to clean up overseas investments,” Mei responded. “President Xi’s own statements about a ‘Green Belt and Road’ create political space for us to move.”

The PM walked to the windows overlooking Marina Bay. The morning sun reflected off the solar panels covering half the city’s skyscrapers—a testament to Singapore’s own green transformation.

“What’s the worst-case scenario?” he asked.

“Chinese retaliation,” said the Foreign Minister. “They could redirect investments away from Singapore. Some of our largest banks have significant exposure to Chinese companies.”

“And the best case?”

Mei stood. “We become the global standard. Every country with serious environmental commitments adopts Singapore’s model. We’re not just a financial hub—we become the moral and practical leader of sustainable development in the 21st century.”

The PM turned back to the room. “Implementation timeline?”

“Six months for the regulatory framework. Twelve months for full implementation. Two years to prove the model works,” Patel replied.

“Do it.”

Chapter 3: The Resistance

Three weeks later, Mei found herself in a very different kind of meeting. The boardroom at Singapore’s largest bank was filled with representatives from Chinese state-owned enterprises, their faces carefully composed but their message clear.

“Dr. Chen,” said Wang Xiaoming, deputy chairman of China National Resources Corporation, “these new regulations will make many legitimate projects impossible to finance. Surely there’s room for… flexibility.”

Mei had prepared for this moment. “Mr. Wang, your own government has committed to making the Belt and Road Initiative green. Our standards help you achieve that goal.”

“But the timeline—”

“Is generous. You have eighteen months to bring existing projects into compliance. For new projects, the standards apply immediately.”

The silence stretched uncomfortably. Finally, Li Hua, representing China’s largest sovereign wealth fund, spoke: “And if we choose to invest elsewhere?”

Mei met her gaze steadily. “That’s your choice. But I think you’ll find that Singapore’s standards become the global norm within five years. You can lead that transition or follow it.”

After the Chinese delegation left, Mei’s deputy, Andrew Ng, slumped in his chair. “Think they’ll call our bluff?”

“It’s not a bluff,” Mei replied. “We have first-mover advantage, but only if we move fast enough.”

Chapter 4: The Domino Effect

The call came from unexpected quarters. Dr. Emma Rodriguez, head of sustainable finance at the European Central Bank, was barely containing her excitement.

“Mei, we want to adopt Singapore Standards across the EU. Can you fast-track our regulatory harmonization process?”

Within a month, similar calls came from Canada, Australia, and—surprisingly—Brazil. The “Singapore Standards” were becoming shorthand for genuine environmental and social governance in international finance.

But the real test came from an even more unexpected source.

“Dr. Chen? This is Minister Nakamura from Japan’s Ministry of Finance. We have a proposal.”

The proposal was audacious: a joint Singapore-Japan fund to help Chinese companies upgrade their overseas operations to meet Singapore Standards. Instead of forcing Chinese companies out of the market, they would help them compete on sustainability.

“It’s brilliant,” Andrew said after the call. “We’re not punishing China—we’re helping them become the sustainable development leader they claim to want to be.”

Chapter 5: The Mountain Meeting

The invitation to Beijing came through diplomatic channels. President Xi wanted a private meeting with PM Lee—unofficial, no media, no formal agenda. Just two leaders talking about the future.

The meeting took place at a government guesthouse in the Western Hills, away from the formal protocols of the Zhongnanhai. Xi received the Singapore delegation in a traditional courtyard, tea service prepared on a simple wooden table.

“Prime Minister Lee,” Xi began, “your Singapore Standards are… ambitious.”

“They’re necessary, President Xi. The global community is losing faith in sustainable development commitments. We need credible standards.”

Xi nodded slowly. “Some of our companies feel… targeted.”

“The standards apply equally to everyone—Chinese, American, European, Singaporean. We’re not targeting any country. We’re elevating all countries.”

Xi walked to the courtyard’s edge, looking out at the mountains. “You know, in Chinese philosophy, we have a concept: ‘Wei wu wei’—action through non-action. Sometimes the most powerful move is to set an example others must follow.”

PM Lee joined him at the courtyard’s edge. “Is that what Singapore is doing?”

“Perhaps,” Xi smiled. “Or perhaps you’re forcing everyone—including China—to become better versions of themselves.”

Chapter 6: The Unexpected Alliance

The breakthrough came from the most unlikely source: a group of Chinese mining engineers who had been secretly documenting environmental violations at their own companies’ overseas projects.

Dr. Li Wei, formerly of China National Metals Corporation, now worked for the Singapore Standards Implementation Office. His team included Chinese, Indonesian, Philippine, and African environmental scientists—people who understood both the technical requirements and cultural contexts of sustainable mining.

“The irony,” Li explained to Mei during one of their weekly reviews, “is that Chinese companies often have the technical capability to meet Singapore Standards. They just never had the incentive or oversight.”

The Singapore Standards weren’t just regulations—they had become a platform for international cooperation. Chinese companies worked with local communities to redesign mining operations. European investors provided patient capital for longer-term, more sustainable projects. African governments gained technical expertise and legal frameworks to protect their environments.

Chapter 7: The Reckoning

Two years after the Sulawesi disaster, Mei stood before the Global Sustainable Finance Summit in Marina Bay Sands. The audience included finance ministers from 67 countries, CEOs of major banks, and representatives from civil society organizations worldwide.

The numbers spoke for themselves: Singapore-domiciled sustainable investments had grown 340% since the Standards were implemented. More importantly, independent monitoring showed that projects meeting Singapore Standards had 89% fewer environmental violations and 76% higher community satisfaction ratings.

But the real measure of success wasn’t financial—it was human.

On the giant screen behind Mei, a video played: the rebuilt village near the former Sulawesi disaster site, now home to a model sustainable mining operation that employed 3,000 local workers and had restored the damaged watershed. The mine’s operator was a Chinese company working under Singapore Standards, financed by a international consortium, and monitored by a community oversight board.

“Three years ago,” Mei concluded, “we faced a choice between managing a crisis and transforming a system. We chose transformation. Today, Singapore Standards govern $2.3 trillion in international investments. But more importantly, they prove that global cooperation on environmental challenges isn’t just possible—it’s profitable.”

Epilogue: The New Normal

Five years later, the phrase “Singapore Standards” had entered the global lexicon alongside “Swiss banking” and “Dutch auctions.” The city-state had transformed itself from a mere financial hub into the world’s sustainability compliance center.

The irony wasn’t lost on observers: by refusing to compromise on environmental standards, Singapore had strengthened its position as Asia’s premier financial center. Chinese companies still flocked to Singapore, but now they came seeking help to meet the world’s highest sustainability requirements rather than ways to circumvent them.

Prime Minister Lee, now serving his second term, reflected on the transformation during his National Day speech:

“Five years ago, we faced what seemed like an impossible choice: maintain our economic relationships or uphold our values. We discovered that this was a false choice. By insisting on the highest standards, we created new forms of prosperity—not just for Singapore, but for the entire region.”

In the audience, Dr. Mei Chen smiled as she watched her teenage daughter—part of a generation that had never known a world without Singapore Standards. For them, the idea that finance could ignore environmental and social impacts seemed as antiquated as using cash for daily transactions.

The real measure of Singapore’s success wasn’t that it had navigated China’s climate paradox—it was that it had helped resolve it. In a world often dominated by zero-sum thinking, the city-state had proven that principled leadership could create positive-sum outcomes for everyone.

As the fireworks lit up Marina Bay that evening, reflecting off solar panels and green rooftops throughout the city, Singapore had become something unprecedented in international relations: a middle power that had shaped global norms not through military might or economic coercion, but through moral leadership backed by practical innovation.

The future, it turned out, belonged to those brave enough to build it.

Author’s Note: This story explores how Singapore might navigate the complex challenges of China’s climate paradox through principled leadership and policy innovation. While fictional, it draws on real trends in sustainable finance, international relations, and environmental governance to imagine how middle powers can drive positive change in an era of great power competition.

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China’s climate strategy paradox