Defence Minister Chan Chun Sing will embark on his introductory visit to China from September 15 to 18, 2025, underscoring the importance of strengthening bilateral defence ties between Singapore and China. During this four-day visit, Minister Chan is scheduled to meet with senior Chinese leaders in Beijing, facilitating high-level dialogue on regional security and cooperation.
A key highlight of Minister Chan’s trip is his participation as a speaker at the 12th Beijing Xiangshan Forum, one of Asia’s leading multilateral security forums. The forum, themed “Upholding International Order and Advancing Peaceful Development,” brings together defence officials and experts from across the globe to discuss pressing security issues and promote constructive engagement.
Accompanying Minister Chan are Chief of Army Major-General Cai Dexian and other senior Ministry of Defence officials, reflecting Singapore’s commitment to fostering robust military-to-military relations. The delegation will also engage in roundtable discussions at the PLA National Defence University, where strategic perspectives on regional stability will be exchanged.
In addition to engagements in Beijing, Minister Chan will visit the PLA Southern Theatre Command in Guangzhou and the PLA Navy’s South Sea Fleet in Zhanjiang. These visits aim to deepen mutual understanding and explore avenues for practical cooperation between both armed forces.
This visit highlights Singapore’s ongoing efforts to maintain open channels of communication with China amid evolving security challenges in the region. According to Singapore’s Ministry of Defence, such exchanges help build trust and contribute to regional peace and stability. As global attention focuses on Asia’s security landscape, Minister Chan’s visit is a timely reaffirmation of Singapore’s commitment to constructive international partnerships.
Strategic Context and Timing
Introductory Nature: This is Chan Chun Sing’s first visit to China as Defence Minister, making it a crucial relationship-building exercise. Chan recently completed his first introductory visit to the US as Defence Minister from September 9-13 Chan Chun Sing to make 1st US visit as defence minister – Mothership.SG – News from Singapore, Asia and around the world, positioning this China visit as part of a balanced diplomatic approach between the two major powers.
Geopolitical Balancing: The timing is particularly significant given Singapore’s delicate position in US-China strategic competition. Singapore’s defence cooperation is “far from China- or US-centric” and has “steadily broadened its defence network with middle powers” The strategy behind Singapore’s defence cooperation | Lowy Institute, reflecting its commitment to strategic autonomy.
Key Components and Value Propositions
1. Beijing Xiangshan Forum Participation
The forum represents China’s premier multilateral security dialogue, often dubbed China’s answer to the Shangri-La Dialogue. Previous Defence Minister Dr Ng Eng Hen attended the 11th Beijing Xiangshan Forum in September 2024 Minister for Defence to Visit China for the 11th Beijing Xiangshan Forum, establishing continuity in high-level engagement.
Strategic Value:
- Platform to articulate Singapore’s independent foreign policy stance
- Opportunity to engage with multiple defense leaders simultaneously
- Signal of balanced engagement with China’s security architecture
2. Military-to-Military Engagement
The visits to PLA institutions (National Defence University, Southern Theatre Command, STC Navy) provide substantial operational value:
Intelligence and Assessment Benefits:
- Understanding PLA modernization and capabilities
- Gauging China’s military posture in the South China Sea region
- Building professional military relationships
Practical Cooperation Foundations: Singapore and China signed an enhanced Agreement on Defence Exchanges and Security Cooperation (ADESC) in 2019 to “scale up bilateral military exercises, provide mutual logistics support and establish regular dialogues between their defence ministers” Singapore and China sign agreement to boost defence cooperation | South China Morning Post
Strategic Risks and Considerations
1. Cybersecurity Tensions
In July 2025, Singapore’s critical infrastructure was attacked by UNC3886, a cyber-espionage group previously linked to China China–Singapore relations – Wikipedia, creating an awkward backdrop for enhanced defense cooperation.
2. US Alliance Management
Singapore must carefully balance this engagement with its strong US defense partnership. Singapore is “one of the United States’ strongest bilateral partners in Southeast Asia” with cooperation spanning “border security, maritime security, military preparedness, counter proliferation, cybersecurity, and counterterrorism” U.S. Security Cooperation With Singapore – United States Department of State.
Long-term Strategic Value
Regional Stability Framework
Singapore’s bilateral Exercise Maritime Cooperation 2025 with China in May focused on “gunnery, search-and-rescue operations, and medical evacuation drills” The strategy behind Singapore’s defence cooperation | Lowy Institute, demonstrating practical cooperation areas that enhance regional maritime security.
Hedging Strategy Implementation
This visit reinforces Singapore’s “hedging” strategy – maintaining productive relationships with all major powers while preserving strategic autonomy. The visit allows Singapore to:
- Demonstrate independent foreign policy capabilities
- Maintain channels for crisis management and dialogue
- Position itself as a neutral facilitator in regional security issues
- Extract economic and technological benefits from engagement
Immediate Outcomes to Watch
- Joint Statement Content: Will reveal the scope of agreed cooperation
- Follow-up Mechanisms: Establishment of regular dialogue channels
- Practical Cooperation Areas: Specific military exercises or exchanges announced
- Regional Security Positions: Singapore’s articulation of South China Sea and Taiwan issues
The visit represents Singapore’s sophisticated approach to great power competition – engaging substantively with China while maintaining its core strategic partnerships, particularly with the United States. The true value lies not just in bilateral defense cooperation, but in Singapore’s ability to maintain its role as a trusted interlocutor and regional stability anchor.
Scenario-Based Analysis of Singapore’s Hedging Strategy During Chan Chun Sing’s China Visit
Singapore’s sophisticated hedging approach can be understood through several critical scenarios that test its ability to maintain strategic autonomy while preserving relationships with both superpowers.
Scenario 1: Taiwan Strait Crisis Escalation
The Challenge: Recent simulations revealed that in a Chinese blockade of Taiwan, Southeast Asian countries would need to evacuate up to 1 million nationals, with Singapore potentially serving as a crucial lifeline The InterpreterIRSEM.
Singapore’s Hedging Response:
- Immediate Phase: Maintain strict neutrality while facilitating humanitarian evacuation
- Diplomatic Channel: Use established defense relationships (like those strengthened by Chan’s visit) to communicate with Beijing while coordinating with Washington
- Economic Hedging: Leverage financial hub status to manage sanctions compliance without alienating either side
Value of Current Visit: Chan’s meetings with PLA Southern Theatre Command provide crucial channels for crisis communication, while his balanced US visit beforehand signals continued American partnership.
Scenario 2: South China Sea Confrontation
The Challenge: In 2016, China seized nine of Singapore’s armoured vehicles returning from Taiwan exercises, demonstrating how quickly Singapore can become caught in great power tensions Visit by Mr Chan Chun Sing to the People’s Republic of China, 10 to 13 September 2023.
Singapore’s Strategic Response Framework:
- Legal Hedging: Continue advocating for international law (UNCLOS) while avoiding direct confrontation
- Military Hedging: Singapore’s acquisition of German Invincible-class submarines and US F-35 jets in 2024-2025 Beijing Xiangshan Forum provides capability without signaling alignment
- Multilateral Hedging: Use ASEAN mechanisms to dilute bilateral pressure
Visit’s Strategic Value: The Xiangshan Forum participation allows Singapore to articulate independent positions on maritime law while maintaining dialogue with Chinese military leadership.
Scenario 3: Economic Decoupling Pressures
The Challenge: ASEAN countries “rely on China for economy but America for security,” Keynote Address by Mr Chan Chun Sing at the 9th Singapore‑China Forum on Leadership creating vulnerability to forced economic choices.
Singapore’s Multi-layered Response:
- Technological Hedging: Diversify supply chains while maintaining access to both Chinese and American technology ecosystems
- Financial Hedging: Position as neutral financial center serving both economies
- Infrastructure Hedging: Balance Belt and Road participation with Indo-Pacific partnerships
Scenario 4: Alliance Pressure Scenarios
The Challenge: 2025 ASEAN surveys show 52% would side with the US versus 48% with China if forced to choose Beijing Xiangshan Forum Navigator Meeting 2025 Kicks Off – Ministry of National Defense, indicating regional uncertainty.
Singapore’s Hedging Mechanisms: Singapore’s aim is “to avoid being forced to make a strategic choice between the United States and China” by maintaining “omnidirectional relations with all great and smaller powers” Mr Chan Chun Sing’s Meetings in the People’s Republic of China, 10 to 13 September 2023.
Practical Applications:
- Defense Cooperation: Chan’s visit demonstrates engagement without alliance commitments
- Military Exercises: Participate in both Chinese and American-led exercises
- Technology Partnerships: Maintain relationships with both defense industrial bases
Scenario 5: Regional Leadership Competition
The Challenge: Both powers seek regional influence through security partnerships and economic integration.
Singapore’s Value Proposition: Singapore’s strategy involves “keeping a fallback position when situations are uncertain but stakes are high” Keynote Address by Mr Chan Chun Sing at the 9th Singapore‑China Forum on Leadership | Public Service Division while positioning itself as indispensable to both sides.
Strategic Execution:
- Convening Power: Host dialogues between competing powers (Shangri-La Dialogue vs. participation in Xiangshan Forum)
- Technical Expertise: Provide neutral ground for military-to-military exchanges
- Crisis Management: Serve as back-channel communication hub
Risk Assessment Matrix
High-Risk Scenarios:
- Forced Alignment Demands: If either power demands exclusive partnership
- Economic Sanctions Spillover: Secondary sanctions affecting Singapore’s role as financial hub
- Military Base Requests: Pressure to host exclusive military facilities
Mitigation Strategies:
- Institutional Hedging: Singapore “utilizes regimes” for institutional hedging while preferring “to cooperate with the United States in terms of security” Singapore-China Young Global Leaders Forum 2025 | MOE
- Strategic Ambiguity: Maintain calculated unclear positions on sensitive issues
- Capability Building: Develop independent defense capabilities reducing dependence
Strategic Outcomes Assessment
Success Indicators:
- Both powers continue viewing Singapore as valuable partner
- Regional stability maintained through crisis periods
- Economic prosperity preserved despite geopolitical tensions
- ASEAN unity strengthened through Singapore’s bridge-building
Failure Indicators:
- Forced to choose exclusive alignment
- Economic isolation from either major economy
- Loss of regional convening power
- Military confrontation affecting Singapore directly
Chan Chun Sing’s visit represents a crucial test of this hedging strategy – demonstrating that Singapore can engage substantively with China’s security architecture while maintaining its fundamental strategic partnerships. The true measure of success will be whether Singapore emerges from potential future crises with its strategic autonomy intact and its role as a trusted regional anchor enhanced rather than diminished.
The Diplomat’s Gambit: A Story of Strategic Balance
Chapter 1: The Phone Call
The secure phone buzzed at 3:47 AM Singapore time. Defence Minister Chan Chun Sing had been expecting it, but the timing still sent a chill down his spine. Three days into his Beijing visit, the Taiwan Strait crisis had just escalated beyond anyone’s worst projections.
“Minister,” came the voice of his Permanent Secretary, crystal clear despite the encrypted line. “The Americans are asking for our position. The Chinese are… requesting clarity on our stance. Both want answers within six hours.”
Chan stood at the window of his hotel suite, watching the pre-dawn Beijing skyline. Just twelve hours ago, he had been sharing tea with PLA Southern Theatre Command generals, discussing joint maritime exercises. The irony wasn’t lost on him – those same officers were now coordinating what Beijing called “reunification operations.”
His phone displayed seventeen missed calls from Washington, eight from Canberra, and a text from the ASEAN Secretary-General: “Emergency session. Your leadership needed.”
Chapter 2: The Xiangshan Moment
The Beijing Xiangshan Forum had been proceeding normally until the third day. Chan had delivered Singapore’s carefully crafted speech on “Multilateral Security Cooperation in Uncertain Times” – diplomatically emphasizing international law while avoiding direct confrontation with any particular nation’s claims.
Then came the emergency session.
As delegates from forty-seven nations gathered in the marble-floored auditorium, Chan found himself seated between the Russian Deputy Defense Minister and the Philippine Defense Secretary. The Chinese Foreign Minister took the podium with an announcement that would reshape the region: “The era of external interference in Asian affairs is ending. Nations must choose their path forward.”
During the coffee break, three separate conversations unfolded:
With the American Admiral: “Singapore’s partnership with the United States has been the cornerstone of regional stability for decades. We trust you remember where your true friends stand.”
With the Chinese General: “Small nations prosper when they align with historical trends. The wind of change favors those who embrace Asia’s natural order.”
With the Malaysian delegate: “Whatever Singapore decides, ASEAN must remain united. The region cannot afford fragmentation now.”
Chapter 3: The Crisis Unfolds
Within six hours, the situation spiraled. Chinese naval forces had established what they termed a “security perimeter” around Taiwan. American carriers were racing toward the scene. Most critically for Singapore, both powers had activated contingency plans that directly affected the city-state.
China invoked their 2019 Enhanced Agreement on Defence Exchanges and Security Cooperation, requesting use of Singapore’s ports for “humanitarian supply operations.”
Simultaneously, the U.S. activated long-standing defense agreements, seeking staging rights for “evacuation and humanitarian missions.”
Both requests landed on Chan’s desk as his plane prepared for departure from Beijing.
Chapter 4: The Minister’s Gambit
Back in Singapore, Chan convened an emergency National Security Council meeting. Around the mahogany table sat the Prime Minister, Foreign Minister, and heads of intelligence services. The room’s silence was punctuated only by the hum of secure communications equipment.
“Gentlemen,” Chan began, placing two folders on the table. “We have six hours to preserve sixty years of strategic autonomy.”
His proposal was audacious: Singapore would become the neutral coordinator for civilian evacuation operations, working with both American and Chinese forces under UN humanitarian protocols. The city-state would offer its ports and airspace for purely humanitarian purposes, with international observers ensuring neutrality.
“It’s either brilliant or catastrophic,” muttered the Foreign Minister.
“Sometimes they’re the same thing,” Chan replied.
Chapter 5: The Trusted Intermediary
The next 72 hours tested every relationship Singapore had cultivated over decades. Chan found himself shuttling between secure video conferences with Beijing, Washington, and every ASEAN capital.
Day 1: Singapore announced its Humanitarian Coordination Initiative, offering neutral ground for evacuation operations while maintaining that all activities must comply with international law.
Day 2: Both Chinese and American military liaison officers arrived in Singapore. They were housed in separate facilities but coordinated through Singapore’s Ministry of Defence. Chan personally attended every meeting, ensuring communication remained professional.
Day 3: The breakthrough came when a Taiwanese civilian vessel suffered engine failure in rough seas. Chinese naval vessels were closest, but American helicopters had the best rescue capability. Singapore’s coordination center managed the joint rescue operation – Chinese ships provided sea-based support while American helicopters performed the extraction.
Chapter 6: The Regional Anchor
As evacuations continued, other ASEAN nations began using Singapore’s model. Malaysia established a similar humanitarian center. Indonesia offered its ports under the same neutral framework. What had begun as Singapore’s desperate gambit became a regional template for crisis management.
The key moment came during an emergency ASEAN summit convened virtually, with Chan representing Singapore from the coordination center he’d established.
“The strength of small nations,” he told the assembled leaders, “lies not in choosing sides, but in providing alternatives that serve everyone’s interests.”
Chapter 7: Strategic Autonomy Preserved
Three months later, the immediate crisis had passed. Taiwan remained autonomous, but under a new framework that acknowledged Beijing’s concerns while preserving democratic governance. American military presence adapted to new realities, while Chinese influence grew through economic integration rather than military pressure.
Singapore’s role had evolved. The Humanitarian Coordination Initiative became permanent, with the city-state serving as the neutral ground for military-to-military communication between great powers. Both Washington and Beijing competed to deepen their relationship with Singapore, recognizing its unique value.
Epilogue: The Long Game
A year later, Chan stood again at the Xiangshan Forum, this time as the keynote speaker. His topic: “Strategic Autonomy in an Interconnected World.”
“Small nations,” he told the assembly, “don’t survive by picking winning sides. We survive by making ourselves indispensable to all sides.”
In the audience, American, Chinese, and ASEAN officials took notes. Each believed Singapore was their closest partner. Each was partially correct.
As Chan often reflected privately, the greatest victory for a small nation wasn’t choosing the right side in great power competition – it was ensuring that every side needed you more than you needed them.
The phone on his desk buzzed again. Another crisis, another opportunity to prove that strategic balance wasn’t just about survival – it was about prosperity, influence, and the long game of geopolitical chess.
Singapore had mastered that game not by being the strongest player, but by becoming the board itself – indispensable, neutral, and essential to everyone’s strategy.
“In the end, Singapore’s greatest strategic asset wasn’t its location, its economy, or its military. It was its ability to make difficult choices look like natural consequences of principled leadership.”
– From “The Art of Strategic Hedging: Singapore’s Diplomatic Revolution” by Dr. Sarah Chen, published by the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2027
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