Select Page

Indonesian court ruling on military law

by | Sep 17, 2025 | Uncategorized | 0 comments

Indonesia faces a pivotal legal and political moment as the Constitutional Court prepares to rule on challenges to recent military law amendments. The outcome of this decision will significantly impact the country’s democratic processes and civil-military relations under President Prabowo Subianto.


At the heart of the dispute are five petitions submitted by human rights organizations, student groups, and Yenny Wahid, the daughter of former President Abdurrahman Wahid. These petitioners argue that parliament hastily passed the amendments in March 2024, violating legislative procedures and bypassing mandatory public consultation, according to a Reuters report published today.

Concerns about increasing militarization have grown since Prabowo, a former special forces commander, assumed office eleven months ago. His administration has assigned the military to various civilian roles, including protest management, school meal distribution, medicine production, and even the seizure of palm oil plantations. Analysts warn that these actions evoke memories of Indonesia’s New Order era (1966-1998), when the armed forces exerted control over many aspects of civilian life.

The court’s ruling comes amid two weeks of nationwide protests, some of which have turned violent. Demonstrators have voiced frustration over lawmakers’ allowances, government budget priorities, police conduct, and especially the expanding role of the military in daily affairs, presenting Prabowo with his first major challenge as president.

Importantly, today’s virtual court session — closed to the public — will address only whether legislative procedures were followed during the passage of the amendments. The substantive content of the military laws will not be reviewed until a separate legal challenge is filed in the future.

This decision marks a crucial test for Indonesia’s democracy and its evolving balance between civilian governance and military influence. The outcome could either reinforce public trust in democratic institutions or deepen societal concerns about authoritarian regression. As citizens and observers await the verdict, Indonesia stands at a crossroads in its post-reformasi journey.

Singapore’s Exposure to Indonesia’s Military Law Crisis

Immediate Strategic Concerns

Democratic Backsliding Risk: ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights strongly denounced the recent passage of contentious amendments to Indonesia’s military law, which grants expanded powers to the Indonesian National Armed Forces (TNI) and permits military personnel to assume 14 civilian posts. Southeast Asian Lawmakers Sound the Alarm: Indonesia’s TNI Law Amendments Undermine Democracy and Human Rights – APHR For Singapore, this represents a fundamental challenge to regional democratic norms that could destabilize ASEAN’s consensus-based approach to governance and cooperation.

Operational Governance Breakdown: Rather than enhancing inter-agency coordination, embedding the military creates operational overlap, institutional confusion, and potential turf wars, all of which will ultimately weaken the state’s ability to govern effectively. Indonesia’s Quiet Militarization Under President Prabowo Subianto This dysfunction directly threatens Singapore’s interests as it relies on Indonesia’s administrative competence for managing shared challenges like maritime security, cross-border trade facilitation, and coordinated responses to regional crises.

Economic Vulnerability Assessment

Investment at Risk: The economic relationship is robust, with Foreign Direct Investment from Singapore to Indonesia amounting to US$20.1 billion in 2024. Ministry of Foreign Affairs Singapore – Singapore-Indonesia LR 2025 Singapore’s massive financial exposure makes it highly vulnerable to Indonesia’s political instability. Military involvement in civilian economic activities – including palm oil seizures and manufacturing operations – creates unpredictable regulatory environments that could jeopardize Singapore’s investments.

Trade Disruption Potential: Given that Singapore is Indonesia’s top foreign investor and bilateral trade flows are substantial, prolonged civil unrest or military-driven policy shifts could severely impact supply chains, particularly in critical sectors like energy (Indonesia supplies significant oil and gas to Singapore) and agricultural products.

ASEAN Leadership Crisis

Institutional Paralysis: Jakarta’s deft powers of shuttle diplomacy could revive a bloc that is increasingly at risk of becoming irrelevant. Indonesia must reclaim its ASEAN leadership | Lowy Institute Indonesia’s internal political crisis fundamentally undermines its capacity to provide ASEAN leadership at a time when the bloc faces mounting external pressures from U.S.-China competition and regional security challenges.

Consensus Decision-Making Under Threat: ASEAN’s foundational principle of consensus becomes practically impossible when its largest member is experiencing domestic political upheaval and potential constitutional crisis. Singapore, as a small state heavily dependent on ASEAN’s diplomatic architecture, faces the prospect of regional institutional breakdown.

Geopolitical Realignment Risks

China Tilt Acceleration: Under Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia prioritizes partnerships within Asia, particularly with China for trade and investment, and strengthening regional cooperation through ASEAN and BRICS. Indonesia’s Probable Foreign Policy Shift from the West under a Prabowo Administration | FULCRUM Indonesia’s domestic militarization combined with its strategic pivot toward China creates a challenging environment for Singapore’s traditionally balanced approach between major powers.

Security Architecture Disruption: The legal changes are a sign of Jakarta’s increasing concern about the potential for conflict in the region, especially over Taiwan. How Indonesia’s Revised Military Law Could Impact Regional Security Dynamics Indonesia’s military law amendments suggest preparation for heightened regional tensions, potentially forcing Singapore to navigate between maintaining neutrality and supporting alliance commitments.

Specific Singapore Response Imperatives

  1. Economic Hedging: Singapore must diversify its regional investment portfolio and supply chains to reduce over-dependence on Indonesia, while maintaining diplomatic engagement to protect existing interests.
  2. ASEAN Backup Leadership: Singapore may need to assume greater regional leadership responsibilities if Indonesia’s capacity continues to deteriorate, despite the political sensitivities of small-state leadership in Southeast Asia.
  3. Quiet Diplomacy Intensification: Singapore will likely increase behind-the-scenes diplomatic efforts to encourage Indonesia’s return to democratic governance while avoiding public criticism that could damage bilateral relations.

The constitutional court ruling represents more than a domestic Indonesian legal matter – it’s a critical juncture that could determine whether Southeast Asia’s largest democracy slides toward authoritarianism, with profound implications for Singapore’s security, prosperity, and regional diplomatic strategy.

Scenario Analysis: Singapore’s Strategic Responses to Indonesia’s Constitutional Crisis

Scenario 1: Constitutional Court Rules Against Military Law – Democratic Recovery Path

Probability: 30%

Immediate Outcomes:

  • Court annuls military law amendments due to procedural violations
  • Popular protests subside, democratic institutions regain credibility
  • Prabowo forced to moderate militarization agenda

Singapore’s Strategic Response:

  • Economic Hedging: Singapore will focus on attracting investments in key sectors of high-value-added manufacturing, among others, alongside emerging growth areas such as AI, digitalization, and climate technologies. Indonesia’s Foreign Policy Under Prabowo: Still Free But More Active? Continue current investment diversification while maintaining strong Indonesia exposure.
  • ASEAN Leadership: Return to collaborative regional leadership model with Indonesia resuming traditional role
  • Quiet Diplomacy: Maintain supportive stance while quietly encouraging democratic consolidation

Timeline: 6-12 months for stabilization

Scenario 2: Constitutional Court Upholds Military Law – Accelerated Authoritarianism

Probability: 45%

Immediate Outcomes:

  • Court validates military expansion into civilian roles
  • Intensified protests met with military crackdowns
  • Democratic backsliding accelerates with opposition marginalized

Singapore’s Strategic Response:

Critical Risk: In Southeast Asia, national imperatives are increasingly outweighing regional cohesion. Speech by Minister Gan Kim Yong at the Indonesia-Singapore Business Forum 2024 ASEAN fragmentation becomes likely.

Timeline: 18-24 months for full authoritarian consolidation

Scenario 3: Constitutional Crisis and Political Fragmentation

Probability: 25%

Immediate Outcomes:

  • Court delivers mixed or delayed ruling
  • Military and civilian institutions clash over authority
  • Prolonged political instability with competing power centers

Singapore’s Strategic Response:

Catastrophic Risk: Regional economic disruption, refugee flows, maritime security breakdown

Timeline: 12-18 months of acute instability

Cross-Scenario Strategic Imperatives

Economic Diversification Matrix

Phase 1 (0-6 months): Regardless of court ruling

  • Accelerate the internet economy—including e-commerce, food delivery and financial services—is expected to approach $360 billion Indonesia’s Quiet Militarization Under President Prabowo Subianto investments across Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia
  • Establish contingency supply chain routes for critical imports
  • Create Indonesia-independent manufacturing clusters in priority sectors

Phase 2 (6-18 months): Scenario-dependent scaling

  • Democratic Recovery: Maintain Indonesia exposure at 60-70% of current levels
  • Authoritarianism: Reduce to 30-40% of current levels
  • Fragmentation: Reduce to 10-20% of current levels

ASEAN Leadership Transition Strategy

Institutional Innovation: Develop “ASEAN-minus-one” mechanisms allowing critical decisions without full consensus Coalition Building: These recent leadership changes among ASEAN countries present opportunities to address current trade barriers and advance regional economic integration Foreign Trade Statistical Import of Indonesia 2024 Book II – BPS-Statistics Indonesia – work with Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia on alternative leadership structures Crisis Architecture: ASEAN needs a regional crisis-response architecture Singapore and Indonesia strengthen ties at 14th Singapore-Indonesia Six Bilateral Economic Working Groups Ministerial Meeting – Singapore must lead creation of emergency decision-making protocols

Diplomatic Risk Management

Red Lines: Establish clear boundaries for Singapore’s tolerance of Indonesian authoritarianism without public ultimatums Parallel Diplomacy: Maintain channels with Indonesian civil society and opposition while engaging government International Coordination: Align quietly with like-minded democracies (Australia, Japan, South Korea) on Indonesia response

The Definitive Stakes

This constitutional court ruling represents a watershed moment that will determine whether Southeast Asia remains a stable, democratic region integrated around ASEAN principles, or fragments into competing authoritarian and democratic blocs. For Singapore, the implications transcend economics – they threaten the fundamental assumptions underlying its foreign policy, security doctrine, and regional integration strategy.

The next 18-24 months will determine whether Singapore can successfully navigate this transition while preserving its core interests, or whether it faces the most significant strategic realignment since independence.

The Watershed Moment

September 17, 2025 – 2:30 PM Singapore Time

Ambassador Lim Wei Ming set down his secure phone with trembling fingers. The Constitutional Court ruling had come through faster than expected—and it was the worst possible outcome. The amendments were upheld, the protests in Jakarta were turning violent, and his counterpart at the Indonesian Embassy had just delivered an ominous message: “President Prabowo requests Singapore’s understanding for the necessary measures to maintain stability.”

From his office on the 28th floor of the MFA building, Lim could see the familiar skyline of Singapore—the Marina Bay Sands, the financial district towers, the orderly harbor filled with ships from across Southeast Asia. Everything looked normal. Everything was about to change.

His assistant knocked. “Sir, the Minister wants to see you immediately. Cabinet is convening an emergency session.”

As Lim walked through the corridors of power, he thought about his grandfather, who had witnessed Singapore’s separation from Malaysia in 1965. The old man used to say, “Wei Ming, we survived because we never took our neighbors’ stability for granted. The moment you do, you’re finished.”

Today, that wisdom felt prophetic.

Foreign Minister’s Office – 3:15 PM

“Gentlemen, ladies,” Foreign Minister Sarah Tan began without preamble, “we are facing the most significant regional crisis since the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997. Indonesia, our largest neighbor and ASEAN’s anchor, may be sliding toward military rule.”

Around the polished table sat Singapore’s strategic brain trust: the Permanent Secretary for Foreign Affairs, the Head of Strategic Policy Office, representatives from Trade and Industry, Defense, and the Prime Minister’s Office. The atmosphere was thick with tension.

“The economic implications are immediate,” continued Dr. Chen from MTI. “Twenty billion in FDI exposure. Our supply chains run through Indonesia. Palm oil, energy, raw materials—if this goes south, we’re looking at severe disruption within months.”

Defense Secretary Colonel Rachel Wong leaned forward. “It’s not just economics. If Indonesia militarizes further under Prabowo, our entire defense posture needs recalibration. The Malacca Straits, joint maritime patrols, counter-terrorism cooperation—everything’s at risk.”

Ambassador Lim cleared his throat. “I’ve been monitoring the intelligence feeds. The protests aren’t subsiding. If anything, they’re spreading to other cities. The military’s response is… concerning.”

Foreign Minister Tan nodded grimly. “Which brings us to the fundamental question: Do we maintain our traditional quiet diplomacy, or do we acknowledge that the rules of the game have changed?”

Prime Minister’s Office – Istana – 6:00 PM

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Yang stood at the window of his office, watching the sunset paint Marina Bay in shades of amber and gold. Behind him, the National Security Council was in heated debate.

“We need to think three moves ahead,” he said, turning back to the room. “If Indonesia goes fully authoritarian, what happens to ASEAN? What happens to our foreign policy doctrine? What happens to Singapore?”

Dr. Kishore Mahbubani, the veteran diplomat serving as Senior Advisor, spoke first. “Prime Minister, we’re witnessing the potential end of the ASEAN Way as we know it. Consensus becomes impossible when one of your key members is sliding toward autocracy. We may need to consider parallel institutions.”

“You’re talking about splitting ASEAN?” The PM’s voice carried a note of disbelief.

“I’m talking about survival,” Mahbubani replied. “If we can’t work with Indonesia, we work around Indonesia. Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines—we build alternative partnerships while keeping the door open for Jakarta’s eventual return to democracy.”

The Trade Minister interjected, “The economic transition alone would take years. We’d need to completely restructure our investment patterns, supply chains, manufacturing base…”

“Better to start now than wait for complete collapse,” countered the Defense Minister. “Every month we delay makes the eventual adjustment more painful.”

Meanwhile, in Jakarta – Merdeka Palace

President Prabowo Subianto stood in the situation room, surrounded by uniformed officers and a handful of civilian advisors. On the wall-mounted screens, live feeds showed protesters in several cities. The mood was tense.

“Sir, Singapore has been our most reliable partner in ASEAN,” his Foreign Minister ventured. “Their reaction to today’s developments will be watched closely by other regional partners.”

Prabowo’s expression remained stern. “Singapore has always been pragmatic. They understand the necessity of strong leadership in times of crisis. They will adapt.”

General Suryo, his Chief of Staff, disagreed. “With respect, Mr. President, Singapore’s entire existence depends on regional stability and predictable partnerships. If we’re seen as unpredictable…”

“Then they’ll learn to work with the new reality,” Prabowo cut him off. “Indonesia is not a client state. We chart our own course.”

In the corner, a young policy advisor named Maya Sari watched the exchange with growing unease. She had studied at NUS, had friends in Singapore’s foreign ministry, understood the delicate ecosystem of Southeast Asian diplomacy. What she was witnessing felt like watching a careful construction of decades being systematically dismantled.

She thought about texting her Singapore contacts but caught herself. Such communications were now being monitored.

Singapore – Raffles Place – 8:00 PM

In a quiet corner of a high-end restaurant, two old friends met for what they both knew might be their last normal conversation for a long time.

David Koh, a senior banker who managed Singapore’s largest Indonesia portfolio, sat across from James Lim, a Foreign Ministry insider. They had been meeting monthly for years to exchange views on regional developments.

“It’s over, isn’t it?” David asked, barely touching his wine. “The Indonesia we’ve been investing in for decades.”

James nodded slowly. “The reports are grim. If Prabowo consolidates power, we’re looking at a fundamentally different country. Military involvement in economics, suppression of civil society, potential alignment with authoritarian powers…”

“We’re already getting calls from nervous investors,” David continued. “Manufacturing clients wanting exit strategies, shipping companies asking about alternative routes, energy firms exploring backup suppliers.”

“The government is preparing contingency plans,” James said carefully. “Diversification has always been our strength. Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia—they’re ready to absorb increased Singaporean investment.”

“But at what cost? We’re talking about abandoning relationships built over generations. And what if other ASEAN countries start sliding in the same direction?”

James stared into his glass. “Then we’ll find out if Singapore’s small-state diplomacy can survive in a world where our neighbors no longer share our values.”

Changi Airport – Departure Lounge – 10:30 PM

Dr. Siti Rahman, a prominent Indonesian human rights lawyer, waited for her flight to Sydney. She was one of many Indonesian intellectuals, activists, and professionals quietly leaving the country as the political situation deteriorated.

Her phone buzzed with a message from a Singapore-based colleague: “Safe travels. Will the others follow?”

She typed back: “The brain drain is starting. Singapore will see many of us soon. But be careful—Prabowo’s people are watching everything.”

As she boarded her flight, Siti looked back toward the Jakarta gate where other Indonesians were saying goodbye to family members. She thought about the bright young Indonesian students she’d met at NUS, the joint research projects with Singapore universities, the cross-border civil society networks that had flourished for decades.

All of it now at risk.

Singapore – Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Midnight

Ambassador Lim was still at his desk, drafting urgent cables to Singapore’s embassies across the region. The instructions were sensitive: quietly gauge whether other ASEAN partners shared Singapore’s concerns about Indonesia’s trajectory, but without appearing to orchestrate anti-Indonesian sentiment.

His secure phone rang. It was the Ambassador to Malaysia.

“Lim, I’ve just had an interesting conversation with my counterpart from Thailand. They’re as concerned as we are. The question is whether we can coordinate a response without triggering Indonesian backlash.”

“What about the others?”

“Philippines is distracted by their own issues. Vietnam’s being cautious—they don’t want to antagonize Jakarta. Malaysia’s torn between economic interests and democratic principles.”

Lim sighed. “So it might just be us out front.”

“For now. But that could change quickly if Indonesia continues down this path.”

After hanging up, Lim walked to his window. The city below was quiet, but he could sense the undercurrents of change. By morning, new instructions would go out to Singapore’s diplomatic posts. New economic policies would be drafted. New defense arrangements would be considered.

The old Southeast Asia—stable, predictable, governed by consensus and mutual respect—was ending. What would replace it remained unknown.

Epilogue – Six Months Later

Maya Sari, the former Indonesian policy advisor, sat in a coffee shop in Tanjong Pagar, reviewing job applications from Singaporean think tanks. She had managed to secure a research visa after her quiet resignation from the Prabowo administration.

Around her, she heard conversations in multiple languages—Mandarin, Malay, Tamil, English—the familiar symphony of Singapore’s diversity. It was a stark contrast to the increasingly monolithic discourse she had left behind in Jakarta.

Her phone displayed a news alert: “Singapore Announces New ‘Partnership for Democratic Prosperity’ with Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam.” The initiative, launched without Indonesian participation, represented exactly the kind of alternative architecture that diplomatic circles had been whispering about for months.

As she read the details—coordinated investment frameworks, joint infrastructure projects, shared governance standards—Maya realized she was witnessing history. Not just the transformation of Indonesia, but the evolution of an entire regional order.

She opened her laptop and began typing her first research paper for her new Singaporean colleagues. The title: “After ASEAN: Building Resilient Partnerships in a Fragmenting Region.”

Outside the coffee shop window, the Singapore Strait stretched toward the horizon, still filled with ships from around the world. The trade routes remained. The economic dynamism continued. But the certainties that had governed Southeast Asian diplomacy for half a century were gone forever.

The watershed moment had passed. The new era had begun.

Author’s Note: This story explores the human dimensions of strategic transformation, showing how abstract geopolitical changes ripple through the lives of diplomats, business leaders, activists, and ordinary citizens caught in the currents of historical change.