Japan’s next prime minister will face rising fears about immigration. A recent Nikkei study found that 97.9 percent of CEOs in Japan want more foreign workers to help the economy. Yet, the country struggles with strong pushback against outsiders.
Japan stands at a key turning point. The nation will pick a new prime minister on October 4, 2025. Shigeru Ishiba, the current leader, has chosen to step down. Members of the Liberal Democratic Party, Japan’s main ruling group, will vote for his replacement. Leading candidates include Sanae Takaichi, known for her strong nationalist views, and Shinjiro Koizumi, a younger politician with bold ideas. Both have voiced firm limits on immigration. This choice comes as Japan deals with deep worries about its people and borders.
At the heart of this issue lies what experts call the immigration paradox. Japan has an aging population. Birth rates stay low. The number of workers shrinks each year. Foreign-born people make up just 3 percent of the total population. That is far below levels in other rich countries, like the United States or Germany, where immigrants often fill 15 percent or more. Business leaders see the need clearly. They push for more foreign hands in factories, farms, and care homes. Without them, Japan’s economy risks slowing down. But many citizens fear change. They worry about jobs, safety, and cultural shifts. This clash creates real tension for leaders.
The political scene adds fuel to these fears. Sanae Takaichi has called for a fresh look at rules that let in people from “completely different cultures.” She argues such policies could harm Japan’s tight-knit society. Shinjiro Koizumi takes a different angle. He ties illegal work by foreigners to risks for public safety. He points to cases where undocumented workers lead to crime or strain on local services. Then there is the Sanseito party. This group pushes a “Japanese-first” message. It gained seats in recent local elections. Party members describe immigration as a “silent invasion.” They claim it quietly erodes national identity. These voices grow louder as the prime minister race heats up. Voters hear these warnings on TV and social media. It shapes how people view outsiders.
On the ground, life for immigrants shows a mixed picture. Take Warabi, a city north of Tokyo. It has one of Japan’s highest shares of foreign residents, mostly from Asia. Workers there often say locals treat them well. They shop at the same stores. Kids play together in parks. But jobs grow harder to find. New rules demand more skills and language tests. Employers hesitate amid the backlash. False stories make things worse. Rumors spread online about immigrants causing trouble. One example hit hard last year. A cultural exchange program with African countries got canceled. Organizers faced protests based on lies about health risks. Another case involved school lunches. Complaints arose over “Muslim-friendly” meals. Parents claimed they wasted money and pushed foreign ways. In truth, the options aimed to include all students. Such errors spark anger. They turn small issues into big divides.
This pattern reveals a deeper truth. Economic needs press Japan to open up. An aging society demands fresh workers. But politics taps into old fears. Leaders use these to win support. Even with low immigration numbers, sentiment turns sour. Policymakers must now balance acts. They need to ease demographic strains without ignoring public worries. The new prime minister will lead this effort. Success could stabilize the nation. Failure might deepen the splits. Japan’s future hangs on how well it handles this challenge.
Japan’s Immigration Crossroads: Leadership Transition and Regional Implications
A Nation at the Precipice of Demographic Collapse
As Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party prepares to elect a new leader on October 4, 2025—who will almost certainly become the next Prime Minister following Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation—the nation finds itself caught in a profound contradiction that will define its future for decades to come. This is not merely a political transition; it is a moment that crystallizes Japan’s existential demographic crisis against a rising tide of xenophobic sentiment that threatens to undermine the very solutions the country desperately needs.
The Paradox: Economic Necessity Meets Cultural Resistance
The numbers tell a stark story. Japan’s foreign-born population stands at a mere 3 percent—extraordinarily low compared to other developed economies. The United States, by comparison, has a foreign-born population of approximately 14 percent, while Singapore’s stands at nearly 30 percent. Yet despite this minimal presence, anxiety about immigration has emerged as a defining issue in Japan’s political landscape.
This anxiety exists alongside an undeniable economic reality: 97.9 percent of Japanese CEOs want more foreign workers allowed into the country. This near-unanimous consensus among business leaders reflects the severity of Japan’s demographic crisis. The nation’s population is both aging and shrinking at an accelerating rate, creating labor shortages across virtually every sector of the economy.
The contradiction is striking—business leaders overwhelmingly recognize that foreign workers are essential for economic survival, yet political leaders are competing to demonstrate who can be toughest on immigration. This disconnect between economic necessity and political posturing represents one of the most significant policy challenges facing the next Prime Minister.
The Political Landscape: A Race to the Restrictionist Bottom
The two frontrunners in the LDP leadership race have both adopted hardline stances on immigration that would have been unusual in Japanese mainstream politics just a few years ago.
Sanae Takaichi, the arch-nationalist candidate, argues that Japan should “reconsider policies that allow in people with completely different cultures and backgrounds.” This represents a fundamental rejection of multiculturalism and suggests a preference for ethnic and cultural homogeneity even at the cost of economic vitality.
Shinjiro Koizumi, despite his youth and reformist image, has adopted equally restrictionist rhetoric, claiming that “illegal employment of foreigners and the worsening of public safety are leading to anxiety among local residents.” This framing explicitly links immigration to crime and social disorder—a classic populist tactic that rarely corresponds with empirical reality.
The fact that both leading candidates have converged on anti-immigration positions signals a broader shift in Japanese political culture. As Professor Sadafumi Kawato of the University of Tokyo notes, traditional LDP voters are particularly susceptible to anti-immigrant messaging, especially as disseminated through morning and daytime television programs that highlight “foreigners with bad manners.”
The Sanseito Factor: Fringe Politics Enters the Mainstream
Adding fuel to this political fire is the Sanseito party, a “Japanese-first” movement that characterizes immigration as a “silent invasion.” While still relatively small, Sanseito’s recent electoral success has demonstrated that there is political currency in xenophobic messaging.
Sanseito has effectively scapegoated immigrants and tourists—Japan is experiencing record tourist numbers—for a wide range of social problems including rising property prices, traffic congestion, and public disorder. This tactic of blaming outsiders for systemic problems is a familiar pattern in populist politics worldwide, but represents a significant departure from Japan’s typically more restrained political discourse.
The party’s success has created a demonstration effect, showing mainstream politicians that anti-immigration rhetoric can win votes. This has pulled the entire political spectrum rightward on immigration issues, making it politically risky for any candidate to advocate for the open immigration policies that Japan’s economic situation arguably requires.
Ground Truth: The Reality in Immigrant Communities
The contrast between political rhetoric and lived reality is stark. In Warabi, a city where foreign-born residents comprise 12.4 percent of the population—far above the national average—immigrant workers generally report positive experiences.
Turkish kebab restaurant worker Gur Sinan, 30, told reporters he “loves” Japan and feels welcome, expressing a desire to stay long-term while studying Japanese. His colleague Alyoruk Ismail Yasal echoed these sentiments, though he noted increasing difficulty in finding employment.
These testimonials reveal an important truth: in areas where Japanese citizens actually interact with immigrants regularly, coexistence is generally peaceful and productive. The friction points that do exist—such as disagreements over waste separation protocols—are mundane neighborhood issues, not fundamental civilizational conflicts.
However, the Kurdish community in Warabi and neighboring Kawaguchi has become a particular target for anti-immigration activists, facing small demonstrations and hostile messages. The Japan Kurdish Cultural Association has received communications from “far-right and xenophobic elements” calling Kurds “scum”—language that represents a disturbing escalation in public discourse.
The association’s response is particularly insightful: “Japan has structural issues—such as economic stagnation, declining birth rates, and an ageing population—that have been ongoing for nearly 30 years, and realistic solutions to these problems have not been found. Instead, the artificial theme of ‘foreigner problems’ is being brought to the forefront, seemingly diverting public attention toward it.”
This analysis cuts to the heart of the issue. Anti-immigration sentiment is flourishing not because immigrants are actually causing significant problems, but because political actors find it convenient to redirect public frustration about longstanding economic and demographic challenges toward a visible, vulnerable minority.
The Information Environment: Misinformation Fuels Fear
The febrile atmosphere extends beyond formal politics. False claims and misinformation about immigration have triggered disproportionate public reactions that reveal the depth of underlying anxieties.
Japan’s international aid agency was forced to cancel a cultural and social exchange program with four African nations after being inundated with emails and phone calls from people who falsely believed it represented a new immigration policy. Similarly, Kitakyushu city reportedly faced floods of complaints over inaccurate claims that it planned to introduce Muslim-friendly school lunches.
These episodes demonstrate how easily misinformation can mobilize public opposition when it taps into existing fears. They also reveal a troubling willingness among some segments of the Japanese public to believe the worst about immigration initiatives, even in the absence of credible evidence.
The vulnerability to misinformation is particularly concerning because it can create a vicious cycle: false claims generate public backlash, which makes policymakers more cautious about any immigration-related initiatives, which in turn prevents the development of positive experiences with immigration that might counteract xenophobic narratives.
The Economic Imperatives: Why Japan Cannot Afford Isolation
Japan’s demographic trajectory is unprecedented in modern economic history. The country’s population peaked in 2008 and has been declining since, with the decline accelerating in recent years. The working-age population is shrinking even faster, while the elderly population continues to grow.
This creates a cascade of economic challenges:
Labor Shortages: Entire industries face critical worker shortages, from agriculture and construction to healthcare and hospitality. These shortages are not temporary cyclical phenomena but structural realities that will intensify without intervention.
Fiscal Pressure: A shrinking workforce must support a growing elderly population through pensions, healthcare, and social services. This creates an increasingly unsustainable fiscal burden that threatens Japan’s long-term economic stability.
Innovation and Dynamism: A closed society risks intellectual and creative stagnation. Immigration brings new perspectives, skills, and entrepreneurial energy that can drive innovation and economic renewal.
Consumer Market Contraction: A declining population means a shrinking domestic market, which reduces business investment and economic growth. Immigration can help maintain market size and vitality.
The near-unanimous support among CEOs for increased immigration reflects their recognition that these challenges cannot be solved through automation, productivity improvements, or other domestic measures alone. Immigration is not the only solution Japan needs, but it is a necessary component of any comprehensive strategy.
The Political Economy of Resistance
If the economic case for immigration is so compelling, why is political resistance so strong? Several factors help explain this paradox:
Economic Insecurity: While Japan remains relatively wealthy, real wages have stagnated for decades, and many Japanese workers feel economically vulnerable. In this context, immigrants can be perceived as competitors rather than complements to the domestic workforce.
Cultural Homogeneity: Japan has historically prided itself on ethnic and cultural homogeneity. The idea of becoming a multicultural society challenges deeply held notions of Japanese identity and uniqueness.
Generational Divide: Older voters, who are disproportionately represented in the Japanese electorate due to high turnout rates and demographic aging, tend to be more resistant to immigration and cultural change.
Political Expedience: The LDP has lost its parliamentary majority in both houses, creating pressure to recapture voters who have defected to opposition parties, including those running on anti-immigration platforms.
Media Amplification: Television coverage that emphasizes negative incidents involving foreigners—even if unrepresentative—shapes public perception and normalizes xenophobic attitudes.
Singapore’s Stake in Japan’s Choice
Japan’s internal debate about immigration carries significant implications for Singapore and the broader region. As a highly developed, immigration-dependent society with deep economic and strategic ties to Japan, Singapore has multiple interests in how this issue unfolds.
Economic Interdependence
Japan and Singapore share extensive trade and investment relationships. Japanese companies are major investors in Singapore, while Singapore serves as a regional hub for Japanese multinational corporations. Singapore’s tourism sector also benefits from substantial Japanese visitor numbers.
If Japan adopts more restrictionist immigration policies that hamper its economic growth, the ripple effects will be felt throughout the region. Slower Japanese growth means reduced demand for goods and services from regional partners, including Singapore. It also potentially means reduced Japanese investment in Southeast Asia as companies husband resources to cope with domestic labor shortages.
Conversely, if Japan successfully navigates toward more open immigration policies, it could stimulate regional economic dynamism and create new opportunities for cooperation and integration.
Regional Labor Market Dynamics
Singapore and Japan compete for mobile global talent, particularly in high-skill sectors like technology, finance, and research. If Japan becomes more welcoming to skilled foreign workers, it could potentially draw talent away from Singapore, though this competition could also drive both nations to improve their respective value propositions for international workers.
More significantly, both nations draw workers from similar source countries in Southeast Asia and South Asia. Japan’s immigration policies could significantly affect regional labor market dynamics. If Japan substantially opens its doors, it could absorb workers who might otherwise migrate to Singapore, potentially creating labor shortages or driving up wages in Singapore.
Alternatively, if Japan remains relatively closed, continued labor supply to Singapore could help moderate wage pressures and maintain the city-state’s competitive position in labor-intensive industries.
Policy Learning and Regional Norms
Japan’s approach to immigration will influence regional policy debates. As one of Asia’s most developed and internationally respected nations, Japan’s choices carry normative weight. If Japan successfully implements more open immigration policies while maintaining social cohesion, it could provide a template for other Asian nations grappling with similar demographic challenges, including eventually China and South Korea.
Singapore’s own immigration policies have evolved over decades through trial and error, and the government has worked to maintain delicate balances between economic openness and social integration. Japan’s experience—whether successful or cautionary—will offer important lessons for Singapore’s ongoing policy adjustments.
Strategic Alignment
Beyond economics, Singapore and Japan share important strategic interests as U.S. allies in a region increasingly dominated by China’s influence. A Japan that becomes more insular and less economically dynamic could be less effective as a regional partner in maintaining the rules-based international order that Singapore depends upon.
Japan’s demographic crisis, if unaddressed, could undermine its ability to maintain its Self-Defense Forces, invest in advanced military capabilities, and project influence in regional affairs. This would shift regional power dynamics in ways that could be unfavorable to Singapore’s interests.
The Precedent for Aging Societies
Perhaps most fundamentally, Japan represents the leading edge of demographic aging in Asia. Singapore itself faces projected demographic challenges in the coming decades. How Japan navigates its demographic transition—whether it finds ways to make immigration work or suffers economic and social consequences from failing to do so—will provide crucial insights for Singapore’s own future policy planning.
If Japan demonstrates that an advanced Asian economy can successfully become more multicultural while maintaining social cohesion and economic prosperity, it would provide a powerful proof of concept. If instead Japan’s experience reinforces fears that immigration brings more social costs than economic benefits, it could strengthen restrictionist tendencies throughout the region.
International Context: A Global Pattern
Japan’s immigration debate does not occur in isolation. Similar tensions between demographic necessity and cultural resistance are playing out across the developed world.
In South Korea, which faces even more severe demographic decline than Japan, the government has struggled to implement effective immigration policies despite desperate labor shortages. Public resistance remains strong, and politicians face similar incentives to adopt restrictionist positions.
In Europe, countries like Italy, Germany, and Spain have experienced both significant immigration and political backlash, with right-wing parties gaining ground by promising to limit migration flows. These nations offer cautionary examples of how immigration debates can become culturally divisive and politically destabilizing.
The United States has oscillated between relatively open and restrictionist immigration policies, with significant political and economic costs associated with policy uncertainty and polarization around the issue.
Japan could learn from both the successes and failures of these international experiences. Successful integration requires not just allowing immigration but actively investing in language training, cultural orientation, anti-discrimination measures, and community integration programs. It also requires political leadership willing to make the affirmative case for immigration rather than simply yielding to populist pressures.
Scenarios for Japan’s Future
The outcome of the LDP leadership race and subsequent policy choices will set Japan on one of several possible trajectories:
Scenario 1: Restrictionist Retrenchment
If the new Prime Minister implements the hardline policies both leading candidates have advocated, Japan could move toward even more restrictive immigration policies. This would likely accelerate economic decline, intensify labor shortages, and increase fiscal pressures. Social services would deteriorate, business investment would decline, and Japan’s international influence would wane.
In this scenario, Singapore would face reduced economic opportunities in Japan but might benefit from continued access to Southeast Asian labor pools. However, the broader regional economic slowdown caused by Japanese economic stagnation would likely outweigh any direct benefits to Singapore.
Scenario 2: Rhetoric Without Reform
The new Prime Minister might maintain tough rhetorical positions to satisfy political constituencies while quietly expanding foreign worker programs through technical visa categories and administrative measures. This approach—prioritizing political optics over substantive restriction—could allow continued economic access to foreign labor while managing political backlash.
This scenario represents a kind of muddling through that might be politically sustainable but would likely prove economically suboptimal. It would fail to provide policy clarity or stability, discourage long-term immigration and investment, and prevent the development of robust integration infrastructure.
Scenario 3: Transformative Leadership
Less likely but more consequential would be a scenario in which the new Prime Minister, after securing the position, pivots toward making the affirmative case for immigration. This would require significant political courage and effective communication to help the Japanese public understand that immigration is essential to maintaining living standards and economic vitality.
Such leadership would need to be coupled with substantial investment in integration programs, anti-discrimination enforcement, and community support to ensure that increased immigration does not generate social friction. If successful, this approach could set Japan on a path toward sustainable demographic renewal and economic revitalization.
This scenario would offer the most positive outcomes for both Japan and its regional partners, including Singapore, by maintaining robust economic growth and creating opportunities for deeper regional integration.
Scenario 4: Crisis-Driven Change
Perhaps most likely is a scenario in which Japan continues with incremental, insufficient measures until a severe economic or social crisis—such as a fiscal emergency, critical infrastructure failure due to labor shortages, or wholesale collapse of particular industries—forces more dramatic policy changes.
Crisis-driven reform is often less orderly and more socially disruptive than proactive policy change, but it may be the only pathway to transformation in a political system that struggles with decisive action on controversial issues. The danger is that by the time crisis forces change, the economic and demographic situation may have deteriorated to the point where even aggressive immigration policies cannot fully address the accumulated problems.
Policy Recommendations: A Path Forward
While the political constraints are severe, there are policy approaches that could help Japan navigate this challenge more successfully:
Narrative Reframing: Political leaders need to help the public understand immigration not as a cultural threat but as essential to preserving Japanese prosperity and quality of life. This requires honest communication about demographic realities and the economic consequences of restriction.
Targeted Programs: Rather than broad, undefined immigration increases, Japan could develop sector-specific programs that clearly address critical labor shortages in areas like healthcare, elder care, and technology. This targeted approach might be more politically palatable than general immigration increases.
Integration Investment: Substantial resources should be dedicated to language training, cultural orientation, anti-discrimination measures, and community integration programs. Many immigration challenges arise not from immigration itself but from inadequate integration support.
Local Success Stories: Highlighting positive examples from communities like Warabi where integration has been relatively successful can help counteract negative stereotypes and demonstrate that coexistence is achievable.
Regional Cooperation: Working with other Asian nations facing similar challenges to develop common approaches and share best practices could help build political support and operational effectiveness for immigration policies.
Countering Misinformation: Robust fact-checking and rapid response to false claims about immigration can help prevent the kind of panic reactions that have derailed programs like the African exchange initiative.
Singapore’s Role and Response
Singapore’s government and business community should closely monitor Japan’s immigration debate and maintain active diplomatic engagement. Several specific actions could advance Singaporean interests:
Diplomatic Dialogue: Singapore should engage Japanese political and business leaders to share its own experiences with immigration management, emphasizing both successes and ongoing challenges. This peer-to-peer exchange could provide valuable insights for Japanese policymakers.
Business Advocacy: Singaporean businesses with operations in Japan should work with Japanese business associations to advocate for immigration policies that support economic growth and regional integration.
Scenario Planning: Singapore’s government should develop contingency plans for various Japanese immigration policy scenarios, ensuring that the city-state can adapt to changing regional labor market dynamics.
Regional Framework Development: Singapore could work with ASEAN partners to develop regional frameworks for labor mobility that would facilitate orderly migration flows while protecting worker rights and managing social integration challenges.
Research Collaboration: Academic and policy research institutions in Singapore and Japan should collaborate on studies examining immigration’s economic and social impacts, helping to build an evidence base that can inform public debate.
Conclusion: A Defining Moment
Japan’s October 4 leadership selection represents far more than a routine political transition. It is a defining moment that will shape not only Japan’s trajectory but also broader regional dynamics in Asia.
The fundamental tension between demographic necessity and cultural resistance cannot be resolved through political rhetoric alone. Japan must ultimately choose between economic vitality through openness or gradual decline through isolation. The middle path of incremental half-measures may prove economically insufficient and politically unsustainable.
For Singapore, Japan’s choices matter profoundly. As regional partners sharing strategic interests and economic ties, Singapore has a stake in Japan’s success in navigating its demographic transition. A prosperous, dynamic Japan strengthens the entire regional ecosystem; a declining, insular Japan represents a loss not only for the Japanese people but for all nations that depend on Japanese economic strength, technological innovation, and strategic partnership.
The next Japanese Prime Minister will face many challenges, but few will be more consequential than immigration policy. The decisions made in the coming months and years will echo across generations, determining whether Japan embraces a multicultural future of renewed dynamism or retreats into demographic decline masked by nostalgia for ethnic homogeneity.
For those watching from Singapore and across the region, the stakes are clear: Japan’s demographic crossroads is ultimately Asia’s crossroads, and the path chosen will shape our collective future in ways we are only beginning to understand.
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