An In-Depth Analysis for Singapore Investors
Introduction: From Childhood Nostalgia to Asset Class
Pokémon cards: A new alternative investment? | The Straits Times
Based on this article from The Straits Times, here are the key insights about Pokemon cards as an investment:
The Returns
Rare Pokemon cards have delivered a staggering 3,821 percent return since 2004, significantly outpacing the S&P 500 index which gained 483 percent over the same period. That’s an impressive track record that has certainly attracted investor attention.
What Drives the Value
The article identifies several factors:
Scarcity and condition: Only specific cards are sought by players and collectors, and value depends on rarity, condition, age, and demand for a specific monster’s power. Mint condition cards authenticated and graded by PSA (the standard for card grading) are worth significantly more than those with minor flaws. For example, a first-edition Charizard base set graded PSA gem mint 10 is valued at over US$340,000, compared to less than US$30,000 for a PSA mint 9 one.
Celebrity endorsements: Famous stars have fueled the Pokemon frenzy, with Canadian singer Justin Bieber reportedly paying US$400,000 for a rare Charizard card in 2019, and YouTube star Logan Paul buying a rare PSA 10 graded Pikachu Illustrator card for a record US$5.27 million in 2021.
Nostalgia: The value of certain Pokemon cards has risen mainly due to nostalgia for vintage trading cards and competition to get rare and difficult-to-find ones.
The Important Caveats
The article offers several cautionary notes for potential investors:
The majority of Pokemon cards are not valuable—common cards are worth whatever someone is willing to pay, or not pay. The article also warns that the market share of a popular IP could easily be taken by another newer IP deemed trendier, and long-term popularity requires a compelling narrative and community support.
Ultimately, the author concludes that except for rare cards which will appreciate in value, most Pokemon cards should remain best kept for personal enjoyment rather than investment.
Pokemon cards have undergone a remarkable transformation over the past two decades. Once dismissed as mere childhood collectibles, they have quietly evolved into a niche investment vehicle that has attracted significant attention from young investors, celebrities, and financial analysts alike. For Singapore investors seeking alternative assets beyond traditional equities and property, Pokemon cards present an intriguing proposition—but one laden with both opportunity and substantial risk.
The premise is compelling: rare Pokemon cards have delivered a staggering 3,821 percent return since 2004, far outpacing the S&P 500 index which gained 483 percent over the same period. This performance has captured the imagination of a new generation of investors, particularly young Singaporeans who view the cards not merely as nostalgic mementos but as potential wealth-building instruments. Yet beneath this glittering surface lies a more complex and cautionary narrative that deserves careful examination.
The Numbers: Understanding the Returns
The headline figures are certainly impressive. According to analytics firm Card Ladder, rare Pokemon cards have outperformed virtually every mainstream investment benchmark over two decades. To contextualize these returns, consider that Nasdaq-listed Meta Platforms, despite its dominant position in social media, has risen only 1,855 percent since its 2012 market debut—less than half the Pokemon card benchmark.
However, these statistics require careful interpretation. The 3,821 percent return figure applies specifically to rare cards—a narrow segment of the entire Pokemon card market. Common cards, which represent the vast majority of cards printed, have shown minimal appreciation. The average collector who purchases booster packs seeking random assortments will find that the vast majority of their cards retain little to no value growth.
This distinction is crucial for Singapore investors to understand. The market operates on an extreme winner-take-all principle. While a handful of cards have generated extraordinary returns, the median card in circulation may have appreciated minimally or even depreciated when accounting for storage, grading, and insurance costs.
Furthermore, the data set used to calculate these returns begins in 2004—a period of historic low interest rates and monetary expansion following the dot-com crash. A more conservative analysis might note that the most extraordinary returns came during a specific window in the early 2020s when celebrity endorsements and social media virality created exceptional demand. Whether such returns can be replicated remains questionable.
The Celebrity Effect: Hype as a Wealth Creator
The trajectory of Pokemon card values cannot be divorced from the influence of celebrity endorsements. The involvement of high-profile figures has fundamentally altered the market dynamics, creating waves of attention that have periodically driven prices to extraordinary levels.
Canadian pop star Justin Bieber’s reported purchase of a rare Charizard card for US$400,000 (approximately S$515,210) in 2019 introduced Pokemon cards to mainstream media. However, it was YouTube personality Logan Paul who truly catalyzed the market explosion. In 2021, Paul acquired a rare Professional Sports Authenticator (PSA) 10 graded Pikachu Illustrator card for an astounding US$5.27 million—reportedly the highest price ever paid for a single trading card.
For context, the Pikachu Illustrator cards are extraordinarily scarce. Originally distributed as prizes in an illustration contest in Japan, only 39 copies were officially distributed, though 41 are known to exist. These cards feature original artwork by Atsuko Nishida, the graphic artist who designed Pikachu. Their exclusivity and historical significance elevate them to the status of true “unicorns” in the collecting world.
Paul’s purchase serves as both inspiration and cautionary tale. While it generated unprecedented publicity for the hobby, it also represents an extreme outlier—a transaction that reflects celebrity-driven demand rather than fundamental market value. The question for serious investors is whether such prices are sustainable or represent a speculative bubble that has since deflated.
Indeed, subsequent market analysis suggests that the euphoria of 2020-2021 has cooled considerably. Many cards that traded at elevated prices during that period have seen their values moderate or decline. This correction exemplifies a broader principle of collectible markets: when celebrity attention drives valuations disconnected from underlying scarcity or utility, reversions to more rational pricing levels are inevitable.
For Singapore investors, the celebrity factor presents a particular challenge. The involvement of international celebrities can drive up prices, but it also introduces volatility and unpredictability. Valuations may spike based on publicity rather than fundamental factors, creating opportunities for savvy traders but significant risks for buy-and-hold investors.
Understanding Card Rarity, Grading, and Valuation
The gulf between a valuable Pokemon card and a worthless one is not subjective—it rests on measurable factors: rarity, condition, age, and demand for specific monsters’ abilities. Understanding these variables is essential for any potential investor in the Singapore market.
Rarity represents the first and most obvious criterion. Cards printed in limited quantities during the early years of the franchise (1999-2003) command premiums today. Additionally, certain special variants—such as holographic cards, first-edition printings, or promotional releases—are inherently rarer than standard cards from the same era. The earlier the card was printed, particularly if it represents a foundational era of the franchise, the greater its scarcity value.
Condition is equally critical and perhaps more quantifiable. Cards exist in a spectrum from poor to pristine. Professional grading services, particularly Professional Sports Authenticator (PSA), have become the gold standard for authentication and condition assessment. A first-edition Charizard base set card graded PSA gem mint 10 commands a valuation exceeding US$340,000, while the identical card graded PSA mint 9—a seemingly minor difference in condition—fetches less than US$30,000. This represents a tenfold difference in value based on what appears to be subtle damage.
This dramatic price differential illustrates both the precision of the grading market and the psychological importance of perfection to collectors. Mint condition cards represent the pinnacle of collectibility. Even minor wear, fingerprints, or imperfections can substantially diminish value. For investors storing cards, this creates an ongoing challenge: cards must be maintained in pristine condition to preserve their investment value, requiring proper storage, handling protocols, and insurance.
Age and demand interact to create complex valuation dynamics. The oldest cards from the foundational 1999-2003 era command premiums for their historical significance. However, demand varies based on the specific monster depicted. Charizard, a powerful and visually striking orange dragon creature, has consistently commanded higher prices than comparably rare cards of less popular monsters. Pikachu, the franchise mascot, similarly enjoys sustained demand. Understanding which monsters resonate with collectors and players is part of successful investment strategy.
For Singapore investors, the grading infrastructure presents both opportunity and challenge. While PSA grading provides transparency and allows for benchmarking through resources like PSA Card Facts, TCGPlayer, and PriceCharting, it also introduces additional costs. Grading services charge fees based on card value, and authentication adds to the overall investment cost. Additionally, the reliability and consistency of grading services, while generally trusted, introduces another layer of risk that investors must evaluate.
Investment Strategies: From Booster Packs to Graded Collectibles
The Pokemon card market accommodates investors with varying risk tolerances and capital commitments. Understanding the different approaches is essential for Singapore investors to identify their appropriate entry point.
Booster packs and blind boxes represent the most accessible and speculative entry point. These sealed packages contain eight to fifteen assorted cards whose identity is unknown until opened. The excitement derives from the possibility of discovering a rare or valuable card. However, this approach is fundamentally speculative. The odds of obtaining genuinely valuable cards from random booster packs are low. Most cards obtained this way will be common cards with minimal value appreciation.
The appeal of booster packs extends beyond pure financial calculation. The psychological thrill of opening a sealed package and discovering its contents taps into the same mechanisms that make gambling appealing. For many collectors, this emotional component justifies the purchase regardless of financial returns. For investors, however, booster packs should be understood as speculative ventures with low expected returns rather than reliable wealth-building instruments.
Starter decks offer a more structured approach. These pre-constructed packages typically contain up to 60 cards, rulebooks, playmats, and sometimes counters or dice. Starter decks appeal to those wishing to actively play the Pokemon Trading Card Game rather than purely collect. As investments, they offer more predictability than booster packs, but generally appreciate more slowly than rare graded cards.
Graded cards represent the most serious investment approach. Purchasing professionally graded and authenticated cards provides transparency and allows for precise benchmarking. A collector can assess the historical price performance of specific cards, compare rarity through population tracking data, and make informed valuations. This approach requires more capital upfront but offers greater control and predictability.
One practical example illustrates the potential: a colleague purchased an ungraded Charizard card for $20 and subsequently sold it for $500—a 2,400 percent return. However, such windfalls are exceptional. They typically occur when someone discovers an undervalued card or benefits from broader market appreciation of Charizard cards generally. They do not represent reliable, repeatable returns.
For serious collectors, building a portfolio might involve identifying specific cards or decades that show promise, acquiring multiple examples, and holding for appreciation. This requires research, patience, and capital deployment over months or years.
The Singapore Collector’s Ecosystem
Singapore has developed a thriving Pokemon card community, though it remains smaller and less established than markets in the United States, Japan, and other major economies. Understanding the local dynamics is essential for Singapore investors.
Young Singaporeans, particularly university students at institutions like the National University of Singapore, have embraced Pokemon card collecting both as hobby and investment. Many report starting as casual collectors drawn to the aesthetic appeal and childhood nostalgia, subsequently evolving their interest to include investment considerations. The progression from “I collect them because they are cute” to “I collect them as investments too” reflects a broader pattern in emerging collectible markets where emotional connection and financial possibility coexist.
E-commerce platforms like Carousell have emerged as key trading venues for local collectors. These platforms provide accessible marketplaces for buying, selling, and trading cards without requiring membership in formal collector organizations. For Singapore investors, such platforms offer liquidity—the ability to convert holdings into cash relatively quickly—though pricing may be less transparent than professional auction markets.
However, Singapore investors should note important constraints. The market here is considerably smaller and less liquid than major international markets. This reduced liquidity creates challenges: buyers may need to wait longer to sell cards, and prices may not reflect optimal international valuations. Additionally, Singapore’s position as a relatively expensive developed economy means that capital devoted to card collecting might generate higher returns through traditional investments, particularly for long-term buy-and-hold strategies.
Interestingly, even major corporations have recognized Pokemon’s popularity in Singapore. In 2024, FairPrice launched a loyalty programme featuring a “Living with Pokemon Special Edition” collection, where shoppers fulfilling certain conditions receive free Pokemon Trading Card Game Fun Packs. Airlines like Scoot, the low-cost subsidiary of Singapore Airlines, launched a Pokemon Air Adventures project in 2022 with a Pikachu Jet. These initiatives reflect the franchise’s deep penetration into Singapore’s consumer culture.
The Lipstick Theory and Emotional Economics
A fascinating aspect of the Pokemon card boom relates to behavioral economics and consumer psychology. During periods of economic uncertainty, consumers frequently increase purchases of small luxury items—a phenomenon analysts term the “lipstick theory.” During economic downturns, lipstick sales paradoxically increase as consumers seek affordable emotional comfort and self-care.
In contemporary markets, this principle extends to blind boxes and collectible cards. Interestingly, the Pokemon card boom has coincided with various economic pressures, from post-pandemic adjustments to concerns about inflation and geopolitical instability. The act of purchasing booster packs or blind boxes provides psychological benefits—the thrill of discovery, a sense of control, and emotional comfort—irrespective of financial returns.
This psychological dimension is critical for Singapore investors to recognize. The sustained popularity of Pokemon cards partly reflects genuine scarcity and historical significance, but it also reflects human emotional needs. During periods when macro conditions improve and consumer confidence strengthens, some of this speculative enthusiasm may dissipate. Conversely, periods of economic stress may actually reinforce demand for these small luxury items.
The Sustainability Question: Can Pokemon Endure?
Perhaps the most critical question for long-term investors concerns sustainability. Will Pokemon cards maintain their value and appeal over the next decade or beyond? The answer depends on several interconnected factors.
The role of narrative: Experts emphasize that successful intellectual properties require compelling narratives to achieve long-term sustainability. Pokemon possesses a sophisticated narrative ecosystem. The original video games, created by Satoshi Tajiri and Ken Sugimori in 1996 based on Tajiri’s childhood hobby of collecting insects, feature rich character development, strategic gameplay mechanics, and an expansive universe spanning 151 species of creatures. This foundation enabled the franchise to successfully expand into anime, movies, and numerous other media formats.
Compare this to cautionary examples like Beanie Babies in the 1990s or Be@rbrick in the early 2000s. Both rode waves of celebrity endorsements to rapid popularity but ultimately faded when the narrative appeal proved insufficient to sustain long-term interest. Beanie Babies, in particular, represent a crucial historical parallel: speculative investment mania driven by scarcity and celebrity attention eventually corrected sharply, leaving many investors with substantial losses.
Pokemon has advantages over such predecessors. The franchise is celebrating its 30th anniversary in 2026 and is estimated to have generated over US$100 billion in sales, making it the most valuable media franchise in the world—ahead of Hello Kitty, Winnie the Pooh, Mickey Mouse, and Star Wars. This scale and longevity suggest deeper market penetration than typical fad collectibles.
Nostalgia and generational expansion: Hello Kitty provides an instructive example of how emotional connection can sustain IP value across generations. Designed without a mouth to allow people to project their own feelings, Hello Kitty capitalized on “kawaii” (cute) culture in Japan and subsequently expanded globally. Critically, the brand evolved its product lines to appeal to different age groups. What began as children’s merchandise expanded to include sophisticated goods for adults—laptop bags, luxury accessories, and designer collaborations—allowing the brand to capture value from consumers who discovered the IP in childhood and retained affection into adulthood.
Pokemon is following a similar trajectory. Adult collectors now constitute a significant portion of the market, driven by childhood nostalgia and the ability to invest disposable income in collecting. This generational expansion increases the brand’s resilience. As long as new generations discover Pokemon through video games, anime, and media while existing collectors maintain interest, the IP can sustain relevance.
Community and ecosystem: Another factor supporting long-term sustainability is the extensive community surrounding Pokemon. Unlike abstract financial instruments, Pokemon cards exist within a rich social and competitive ecosystem. People actively play the trading card game, attend competitions, and engage with online communities. This active use case—beyond pure collecting—creates persistent demand. When a collectible has utility beyond speculation, it generates more sustainable support.
Tellingly, Pokemon and Lego are set to release toy bricks featuring the franchise in 2026, though these will notably not be available in Lego stores in Singapore. This continued expansion into new formats suggests confidence in the franchise’s long-term viability.
The challenge of newer competitors: Conversely, the market for collectible IPs is dynamic. New franchises constantly emerge seeking to capture consumer attention. The example of Labubu—a collectible plush toy monster created by Hong Kong designer Kasing Lung and sold by Pop Mart—illustrates how newer IPs can rapidly gain traction. Labubu went viral globally after being promoted by Lisa from the K-pop group Blackpink, demonstrating how celebrity endorsements and social media can elevate new IPs to prominence.
The risk for Pokemon investors is that market share and attention could migrate to newer, trendier properties. While Pokemon’s established position provides defensive advantages, it cannot be assumed to be permanent. Market dynamics in collectibles are notoriously fluid.
Practical Considerations for Singapore Investors
For Singapore investors considering Pokemon cards as part of their investment portfolio, several practical considerations deserve attention.
Capital allocation and portfolio weighting: Pokemon cards should represent only a small portion of a diversified investment portfolio. While individual cards can appreciate significantly, the market is illiquid, subject to speculative fluctuations, and carries substantial risk of value destruction. Most financial advisors would recommend that alternative assets like collectibles represent no more than 5-10 percent of total portfolio value. For most Singapore investors, traditional equities, bonds, and property remain more suitable core holdings.
Storage, insurance, and costs: Maintaining cards in mint condition requires dedicated effort. Proper storage involves archival-quality sleeves, protective cases, and climate-controlled environments to prevent deterioration. Insurance costs can be significant for high-value cards. Grading services charge fees that can range from S$50 to several hundred dollars per card depending on value. These ongoing costs erode returns and should be factored into any investment analysis.
Liquidity and transaction costs: Singapore’s smaller market means less liquidity than international collectible markets. Selling cards may require patience and may yield prices below optimal international valuations. E-commerce platforms like Carousell offer convenient selling mechanisms but may not maximize prices. International auction houses offer better pricing potential but involve shipping costs and international transaction complexities.
Tax considerations: Singapore investors should verify the tax treatment of Pokemon card sales. While generally collectibles are treated favorably for tax purposes compared to trading securities, specific circumstances may vary. Consultation with a tax professional is advisable for substantial holdings or frequent trading.
Authentication and verification: The risk of counterfeit cards, particularly given the high values of rare cards, should not be underestimated. Purchasing only authenticated, graded cards from reputable sources reduces this risk. However, grading services themselves occasionally face scrutiny regarding consistency and standards, introducing another layer of risk.
Hobby versus investment mentality: Perhaps most importantly, Singapore investors should honestly assess their motivations. If the primary appeal is the hobby—the thrill of collecting, the aesthetic enjoyment, and the community engagement—then moderate spending on Pokemon cards can be justified as entertainment. If the primary motivation is financial returns, a more skeptical analysis of expected returns becomes necessary. In many cases, traditional investments will generate superior risk-adjusted returns.
Market Dynamics: Volatility and Sentiment
The Pokemon card market exhibits substantial volatility driven by sentiment shifts, media coverage, and broader economic conditions. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for Singapore investors seeking to time entry and exit points effectively.
The market experienced extraordinary euphoria during 2020-2021. The combination of pandemic lockdowns, increased free time, youth unemployment concerns, and celebrity endorsements created perfect conditions for speculative fervor. During this period, booster pack prices escalated dramatically, and previously common cards suddenly appreciated. Many cards that reached peak valuations during this period have since experienced price corrections, sometimes substantial.
This volatility reflects the speculative nature of the market. When new money enters seeking quick gains, prices inflate beyond sustainable levels. When enthusiasm wanes or sentiment shifts, prices can decline sharply. Singapore investors entering the market now, several years after the initial euphoria, face a different environment than early adopters who benefited from the appreciation wave.
Furthermore, market sentiment proves sensitive to broader economic conditions. During periods of economic stress and uncertainty, demand for small luxury collectibles like Pokemon cards may increase as consumers seek emotional comfort and a sense of control. Conversely, during periods of optimism and economic expansion, capital may migrate to higher-yielding assets, reducing demand for speculative collectibles.
Comparative Context: Other Collectible Markets
Examining other collectible markets provides instructive context for evaluating Pokemon cards. The history of speculative collectibles offers both cautionary tales and validation of legitimate appreciation mechanisms.
Beanie Babies: Perhaps the most instructive historical parallel is Beanie Babies, which experienced a speculative bubble in the 1990s. The plush toys, created by Ty Inc., became wildly popular as investors purchased them believing scarcity would create appreciation. Secondary markets emerged where rare Beanie Babies allegedly sold for thousands of dollars. However, as the company continued producing new variants and scarcity proved less absolute than believed, speculative enthusiasm deflated. The market collapsed, leaving many investors with substantial losses. Today, most Beanie Babies trade at or below their original retail prices.
Art and fine collectibles: Contrast this with established collectible markets like fine art and rare wines, which have demonstrated sustained appreciation over decades. These markets benefit from established authentication mechanisms, professional dealer networks, and global trading infrastructure. Additionally, these assets often provide utility—art provides aesthetic enjoyment, wine can be consumed—beyond pure speculation. Pokemon cards share some of these characteristics but lack the centuries of market history and institutional infrastructure.
Sports memorabilia: The market for autographed sports memorabilia and vintage sports cards shares many characteristics with Pokemon cards. Both markets have experienced speculative waves, celebrity-driven valuations, and subsequent corrections. However, sports memorabilia benefits from deeper market history and more established authentication standards. The sports card market, while still subject to speculation, has developed more mature institutions and pricing mechanisms.
Modern art prints and digital collectibles: Recent experiments with digital collectibles and NFTs represent newer parallel developments. The speculative mania around NFTs in 2021-2022 followed patterns similar to Pokemon cards—celebrity endorsements, scarcity narratives, exponential price increases—followed by equally dramatic reversions when speculation cooled and utility proved limited. This historical experience suggests caution regarding pure speculative plays in emerging collectible categories.
The Author’s Conclusion and Critical Assessment
The original article’s author—a skeptical observer who began researching Pokemon cards after noticing their appeal to his daughter—concludes thoughtfully that while certain rare cards will appreciate in value, “most will remain best kept for personal enjoyment rather than investment.”
This represents a measured and realistic assessment. The extraordinary 3,821 percent returns cited in the headline apply to a narrow universe of exceptionally rare cards. For the typical collector purchasing booster packs or common cards, appreciation prospects are modest. The psychological appeal and community engagement surrounding Pokemon collecting provide legitimate value irrespective of financial returns, but treating Pokemon cards as a primary wealth-building strategy appears unwise.
Conclusion: A Complex Picture
Pokemon cards present a complex investment proposition for Singapore investors. On one hand, the asset class has demonstrated genuine appreciation over two decades, driven by legitimate scarcity, cultural resonance, and an expanded audience spanning multiple generations. The franchise’s scale—the most valuable media property globally—and its sophisticated narrative ecosystem provide defensible reasons to believe in long-term sustainability.
On the other hand, the market exhibits concerning characteristics of speculative excess. Celebrity-driven valuations, extreme price volatility, psychological dependence on novelty and excitement, and vulnerability to competition from newer IPs all suggest substantial risks. The historical parallel of Beanie Babies provides a sobering reminder that even mainstream collectibles can experience catastrophic devaluation.
For serious Singapore investors, Pokemon cards should be understood as a niche alternative asset appropriate only for a small portion of a diversified portfolio—perhaps 5-10 percent at most. They should be approached with realistic expectations regarding returns and a genuine tolerance for volatility and potential losses. The strategy should emphasize patience, thorough research, and disciplined acquisition of undervalued cards rather than speculative participation in market bubbles.
Most importantly, investors should honestly assess their motivations. If the appeal is primarily financial, traditional investments likely offer superior risk-adjusted returns. If the appeal includes genuine enjoyment of the hobby, community engagement, and the thrill of collecting, then moderate engagement in Pokemon cards can be justified as a form of entertainment that may also generate appreciation. This balanced perspective offers the most realistic path forward for Singapore investors navigating the complex world of Pokemon card investing.
The future of Pokemon cards as an investment asset will depend on whether the franchise can sustain its narrative appeal, maintain community engagement, and adapt to new generations while avoiding the fate of less resilient collectible fads. For now, the outcome remains genuinely uncertain—which is precisely why Pokemon cards should be approached with caution and integrated thoughtfully rather than enthusiastically into investment portfolios.
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