The Architecture of Control: Building a Super-Coalition
One year into his presidency, Prabowo Subianto has accomplished what few Indonesian leaders have managed: the creation of a governing coalition so expansive that it effectively neutralizes parliamentary opposition. This “rainbow coalition” encompasses parties across the political spectrum, from nationalist groups to Islamic organizations, creating an unprecedented concentration of political power in Southeast Asia’s largest democracy.
The coalition strategy represents a masterclass in political pragmatism. By offering ministerial positions and influence to nearly all significant parties, Prabowo has transformed potential adversaries into stakeholders in his government’s success. The Indonesian cabinet has swelled to accommodate this broad tent, with over 100 ministerial and deputy ministerial positions distributed among coalition partners.
The Democratic Deficit: When Unity Becomes Uniformity
However, this political stability comes with profound implications for Indonesia’s democratic institutions. The near-absence of parliamentary opposition fundamentally alters the dynamics of democratic governance. When the legislature and executive are effectively unified under one coalition, the system of checks and balances that defines democratic governance begins to erode.
Weakening Accountability Mechanisms
Several concerning trends have emerged:
Parliamentary Oversight Diminished: With virtually all parties invested in the government’s success, parliamentary committees have become less willing to scrutinize executive decisions or hold ministers accountable for policy failures. The traditional role of parliament as a check on executive power has been significantly compromised.
Limited Public Debate: Policy discussions that would typically generate robust parliamentary debate now occur behind closed doors within the coalition. This reduces transparency and limits public understanding of policy trade-offs and alternatives.
Consolidation of Decision-Making: Power increasingly concentrates in the presidential palace, with coalition parties more focused on maintaining their positions than providing substantive policy input or representing diverse constituent interests.
Judicial Independence Under Pressure: With political power consolidated, concerns grow about potential pressure on judicial independence, particularly regarding cases that might affect coalition interests.
The Military’s Growing Shadow
Particularly concerning for observers is the increasing prominence of military figures in Prabowo’s government. As a former military general himself, Prabowo has appointed numerous military officers to civilian positions, blurring the lines between military and civilian governance that Indonesia worked decades to establish after the fall of Suharto’s New Order regime.
This militarization of governance raises questions about:
- The erosion of civilian control over security apparatus
- Potential restrictions on civil liberties and freedom of expression
- The influence of military thinking on economic and social policy
- Long-term implications for Indonesia’s democratic trajectory
Singapore’s Calculus: Stability Versus Democratic Backsliding
For Singapore, Indonesia’s political evolution presents a complex strategic puzzle. The city-state’s interests in its largest neighbor are multifaceted and sometimes contradictory.
The Stability Premium
Singapore has historically valued predictability in Indonesia. A stable Indonesian government offers several advantages:
Economic Benefits: Political stability facilitates cross-border investment and trade. Singapore is one of Indonesia’s largest foreign investors, with billions in manufacturing, infrastructure, and financial services. Policy continuity under Prabowo’s consolidated government provides greater certainty for these investments.
Regional Security: A unified Indonesian government can more effectively address transnational challenges like terrorism, piracy, and illegal migration that affect maritime Southeast Asia. Singapore’s security cooperation with Indonesia benefits from having clear, consistent counterparts in Jakarta.
ASEAN Cohesion: A stable Indonesia strengthens ASEAN’s ability to maintain centrality in regional affairs, particularly as great power competition intensifies. Singapore relies on ASEAN unity to preserve its diplomatic influence beyond its small size.
The Democratic Dilemma
Yet Singapore also has reason to be concerned about democratic erosion in Indonesia:
Long-Term Instability: History suggests that authoritarian consolidation, while creating short-term stability, often leads to greater long-term instability. Suppressed grievances, lack of accountability, and concentration of power can produce sudden political crises. Singapore’s planning horizon extends decades, and democratic backsliding in Indonesia could presage future instability.
Civil Society Restrictions: As democratic space contracts in Indonesia, civil society organizations face increasing pressure. This could affect bilateral people-to-people ties and Singapore’s soft power initiatives in Indonesia, particularly in education and cultural exchange.
Economic Reform Obstacles: Ironically, while political consolidation might seem to enable decisive economic reform, it can also entrench vested interests. Without parliamentary opposition and public scrutiny, coalition partners may protect inefficient industries or resist structural reforms that threaten their patronage networks. This could slow Indonesia’s economic development, limiting opportunities for Singapore businesses.
Refugee and Migration Concerns: Democratic backsliding often correlates with increased restrictions on freedom and potential human rights issues. While currently unlikely, a significant deterioration could produce migration pressures affecting Singapore.
Strategic Implications for Singapore
The Balancing Act
Singapore’s response to Prabowo’s consolidation requires careful calibration:
Engagement Without Endorsement: Singapore must maintain strong bilateral relations while preserving its ability to work with diverse Indonesian stakeholders. This means engaging with Prabowo’s government on practical matters while maintaining connections with civil society, regional governments, and potential future opposition figures.
Economic Hedging: While continuing to invest in Indonesia, Singapore should diversify its regional economic exposure. The concentration of power in Jakarta increases policy risk, as decisions become less predictable and more dependent on individual leadership rather than institutional processes.
Democracy Promotion Through Example: Singapore can demonstrate that effective governance and economic development are compatible with institutional checks and balances, offering an implicit counterpoint to authoritarian consolidation without direct criticism.
Specific Impact Areas
Maritime Security Cooperation: Prabowo’s military background and consolidated control could facilitate more decisive action on shared security concerns like piracy in the Straits of Malacca and illegal fishing. However, it might also lead to more assertive Indonesian maritime claims that could complicate Singapore’s naval operations.
Investment Climate: In the short term, policy stability may benefit Singapore investors. However, the lack of accountability could enable corruption or sudden policy reversals that harm investor confidence. Singapore’s Government Investment Corporation and Temasek Holdings must factor increased political risk into Indonesian investments.
Haze and Environmental Issues: The annual haze problem from Indonesian forest fires requires sustained policy commitment. A powerful president could theoretically enforce stricter regulations, but coalition politics might protect palm oil and logging interests that contribute to the problem.
Labor and Migration: Indonesia supplies significant foreign labor to Singapore. Changes in Indonesian labor policy under Prabowo’s government could affect Singapore’s workforce, particularly in domestic work, construction, and marine sectors.
The Broader Regional Context
Prabowo’s consolidation occurs amid a broader pattern of democratic challenges across Southeast Asia. Myanmar’s military coup, Thailand’s political instability, and the Philippines’ variable democratic commitment create a regional environment where democratic norms are under pressure.
For Singapore, this regional trend is concerning. The city-state has thrived in part because ASEAN provided a framework for stable, rules-based regional interaction. If democratic backsliding becomes the regional norm, it could undermine the predictability and institutional strength that Singapore has leveraged to punch above its weight diplomatically.
Looking Ahead: Scenarios and Preparations
Singapore’s strategic planning must account for multiple scenarios:
Continued Consolidation: Prabowo successfully maintains his coalition and gradually shifts Indonesia toward a more managed democracy. This provides stability but risks long-term institutional decay.
Coalition Fracture: Economic challenges or policy failures cause the coalition to fragment, potentially producing political instability or even crisis. Singapore would need to manage increased uncertainty while maintaining neutrality among competing factions.
Military Entrenchment: The military’s growing role becomes institutionalized, creating a hybrid civilian-military regime. This could produce policy continuity but raise concerns about Indonesia’s democratic trajectory and long-term stability.
Reform Surprise: Prabowo uses his consolidated power to push through difficult but necessary economic and governance reforms. This would be the optimal outcome for Singapore, combining stability with progressive change.
Conclusion: Pragmatism with Principles
For Singapore, the key to navigating Prabowo’s consolidation lies in maintaining principled pragmatism. The city-state cannot afford to alienate Indonesia’s government, given the countries’ deep economic ties and geographic proximity. Yet Singapore also has long-term interests in regional stability, democratic governance, and institutional strength.
The challenge is to engage productively with Prabowo’s government on shared interests while preserving relationships and principles that will matter if Indonesia’s political trajectory shifts. This means:
- Continuing bilateral cooperation on economic and security matters
- Maintaining dialogue with diverse Indonesian stakeholders beyond the central government
- Supporting institutional capacity-building that strengthens governance regardless of who holds power
- Preparing contingency plans for various scenarios of Indonesian political evolution
- Using multilateral forums like ASEAN to reinforce norms of governance and rule of law
Prabowo’s first year demonstrates that political consolidation can produce stability, but the quality and sustainability of that stability remain uncertain. For Singapore, the task is to benefit from near-term predictability while preparing for the possibility that concentrated power, absent accountability, may ultimately prove unstable. The coming years will reveal whether Prabowo’s political architecture represents a new equilibrium or merely a pause before renewed turbulence in Indonesia’s democratic journey.
The stakes extend beyond bilateral relations. Indonesia’s trajectory will shape Southeast Asia’s political character for decades. As a small state dependent on regional stability and international rules, Singapore has much riding on whether Indonesia’s democratic institutions can weather this period of consolidation or whether the erosion of checks and balances presages deeper problems ahead.
Prabowo’s Resource Guard: How Indonesia’s Military Directive Reshapes Economic Policy and Rattles Singapore
Indonesia’s new President, Prabowo Subianto, has signaled a profound shift in national strategy, instructing the military to take an active role in guarding the country’s vast natural resources. Delivered during the military’s 80th-anniversary ceremony, this directive defines resource protection not just as an economic goal, but as a core matter of national security and historical justice.
This move marks a definitive turn toward assertive economic nationalism, backed by military force. While framed through the lens of domestic welfare, the implications ripple outward, creating immediate strategic and operational challenges for regional partners, particularly Singapore—one of Indonesia’s largest investors and closest neighbors.
Part I: The New Doctrine of Resource Sovereignty
President Prabowo’s directive is built on a narrative of historical grievance and future necessity. He explicitly stated that “foreign entities have been stealing, smuggling and taking much of the country’s resources” for hundreds of years. This rhetoric positions the protection of raw materials—from minerals and timber to palm oil and marine assets—as a moral imperative to correct historical exploitation.
Protection as Poverty Eradication
Crucially, the directive tasks the military to work with law enforcement and government bodies to ensure these resources are utilized to “eradicate poverty.” This ties the military’s mission directly to the administration’s ambitious national development agenda, placing resource control at the heart of social welfare policy.
The context is the President’s aggressive push for 8 percent economic growth, an expansion pace that requires every national asset to be fully domesticated and optimized. If Indonesia’s natural wealth is to fuel this unprecedented growth, the state believes it must secure total control over the value chain, minimizing leakages and maximizing domestic processing.
This strategy elevates resource protection to the level of territorial defense, transforming the Indonesian military (TNI) from a force primarily focused on conventional security into an operational and economic security apparatus.
Part II: The Militarization of Economic Management
The resource directive is not an isolated event; it is the capstone of a broader policy of centralizing control and expanding the military’s role in civilian life under the Prabowo administration. This trend fundamentally restructures the management of Indonesia’s economy.
Blurring Civil-Military Lines
Since taking office, the former general has systematically expanded the military’s reach:
Appointments to SOEs: Senior military officers have been appointed to lead state-owned enterprises (SOEs), including those managing vast economic assets, such as the over one million hectares of seized palm oil plantations. This brings military discipline and command structures directly into commercial resource management.
Expanded Civilian Programs: The military is increasingly involved in social and civilian initiatives, such as distributing military-produced medicines and vitamins in support of priority social programs. This normalizes the TNI’s presence in non-defense sectors.
Modernization Mandate: Prabowo also emphasized cutting-edge technology, urging soldiers to pursue developments in artificial intelligence and cybersecurity. This signals that resource protection in the 21st century involves sophisticated digital monitoring and data analysis to track complex global supply chains and combat economic espionage, not merely guarding ports.
This comprehensive approach suggests that the government views the existing civilian oversight mechanisms as inadequate to confront the scale of foreign resource extraction and smuggling. The military is seen as the only body capable of enforcing the strict economic nationalism required to achieve the 8% growth target.
Part III: Strategic Implications for Singapore
As one of Indonesia’s most significant trading partners, foreign investors, and a regional hub for commodity trade, Singapore is highly sensitive to shifts in Jakarta’s resource and security policies. Prabowo’s directive introduces new vulnerabilities and friction points for the city-state.
- Investment Climate and Regulatory Risk
Singaporean companies have substantial investments in Indonesia’s resource sectors, including mining, agribusiness (palm oil), and infrastructure related to commodity processing and export.
Increased Scrutiny: The explicit rhetoric against “foreign entities stealing resources” heightens the risk profile for Singapore-based firms. They face the potential for increased regulatory complexity, more frequent audits, and stricter enforcement of local processing requirements (mineral downstreaming).
Uncertainty: Military involvement in resource oversight introduces a new bureaucratic layer that is less transparent than traditional civilian agencies. Investors must now navigate an environment where economic decisions are potentially filtered through a security and nationalist lens, making long-term planning difficult.
- Trade Flows and Supply Chain Disruption
Singapore serves as a critical regional hub, facilitating the flow of Indonesian commodities to the global market.
Commodity Trading Hub: Tighter military control over extraction and export monitoring—especially if applied aggressively—could lead to friction and slowdowns at ports. Any perceived disruption to key supplies (e.g., palm oil, coal, nickel) handled by Singapore-based traders could impact global prices and Singapore’s vital re-export industries.
Pricing and Availability: If the military prioritizes domestic resource allocation (e.g., ensuring local supply for the eradication of poverty mandate), it could affect the reliability and pricing of raw materials destined for Singapore, impacting sectors crucial for Singapore’s food and energy security.
- Geopolitical and Maritime Security Challenges
Given that much of Indonesia’s wealth is exported via maritime routes that pass near Singapore, the expanded role of the Indonesian Navy in resource protection has direct security implications.
Intensified Maritime Patrols: A more assertive Indonesian Navy focused on protecting Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) and fishing grounds will inevitably lead to increased activity in waters shared or transited by Singapore.
Risk of Incidents: Aggressive enforcement tactics aimed at combating “smuggling” or illegal fishing could raise the risk of maritime incidents or misinterpretations, potentially complicating bilateral cooperation efforts in defense and law enforcement. Singapore must carefully manage its defense ties with Indonesia while ensuring the protection of its commerce and shipping lanes.
ASEAN Dynamics: Indonesia’s assertive economic nationalism might influence other ASEAN states, potentially leading to a regional trend of protectionist policies that complicate economic integration—a core goal for Singapore.
Conclusion: Balancing Nationalism with Growth
President Prabowo Subianto’s directive to militarize the protection of natural resources represents a seminal moment in Indonesia’s economic history. It is a bold, high-stakes strategy designed to force a massive transfer of wealth control back to Jakarta, fueling the 8% growth target and addressing historical grievances.
For Singapore, the challenge is clear: navigating this new landscape of economic militarism without destabilizing the crucial bilateral relationship. Singaporean businesses must adopt rigorous compliance strategies, prioritize partnerships with well-vetted local entities, and brace for a regulatory environment where national security considerations often override standard commercial logic.
The ultimate success of Prabowo’s strategy hinges on a delicate balance: Can resource nationalism truly deliver rapid, equitable growth, or will the heightened uncertainty and aggressive government intervention scare away the very foreign investment and expertise needed to power a sustainable, modern Indonesian economy? The answer will define not just Indonesia’s future, but the stability of Southeast Asia’s economic architecture.
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