The 2025 Dutch Parliamentary Election

The 2025 Dutch Parliamentary Election: A Critical Juncture for European Populism’s Political Trajectory

Abstract: The Dutch parliamentary election held on October 29, 2025, represented a significant barometer for the trajectory of populist movements across Europe. This paper analyzes the election through the lens of Geert Wilders’s anti-immigration Freedom Party (PVV) and its attempt to translate popular electoral support into stable governance. Drawing on contemporary news reports, this analysis demonstrates that while Wilders’s populist nationalism continued to command a leading position in polls, the complex interplay of coalition politics and mainstream party resistance posed substantial obstacles to his party’s ability to form a governing majority. The Dutch outcome, therefore, serves as a crucial case study in understanding the enduring appeal of populism versus its potential limitations in achieving sustained political power within established European democracies.

Keywords: Dutch election, populism, Geert Wilders, PVV, European politics, anti-immigration, coalition government, political polarization.

1. Introduction: The European Populist Wave and the Dutch Test

The early decades of the 21st century have witnessed a discernible surge in populist sentiment and parties across Europe, often characterized by anti-establishment rhetoric, heightened nationalism, and stringent anti-immigration stances (Mudde, 2007; Kriesi & Pappas, 2015). From the United Kingdom’s Brexit vote to the rise of nationalist parties in France and Germany, the political landscape of the continent has been significantly reshaped. Within this context, the Netherlands, a historically centrist and consensus-driven democracy, has emerged as a crucial battleground, particularly with the enduring presence and electoral success of Geert Wilders and his Freedom Party (PVV).

The parliamentary election of October 29, 2025, was widely framed as a pivotal test: “whether populism can expand its reach or whether it has peaked in parts of Europe” (ST, 2025). This paper provides a detailed examination of this election, focusing on the performance of Geert Wilders’s PVV, the dynamics of coalition formation, and the broader implications for the future of European populism. By analyzing the electoral landscape, policy platforms, and the strategic responses of mainstream parties, this study aims to elucidate the complexities faced by populist forces in translating electoral victories into effective governance, thereby offering insights into the resilience and vulnerabilities of democratic institutions under populist pressure.

2. Geert Wilders and the Ascendancy of Dutch Anti-Immigration Nationalism

Geert Wilders, a long-serving and emblematic figure of European populism, has consistently championed a hardline anti-Islam and anti-immigration agenda, reflecting a potent strain of nationalist sentiment within the Netherlands. His political trajectory leading up to the 2025 election underscores both the electoral appeal and the inherent governance challenges associated with his movement.

Wilders’s PVV achieved a “stunning first-place finish” in the preceding 2023 election, a testament to the significant portion of the Dutch electorate receptive to his message (ST, 2025). Following this victory, he successfully formed an “all-conservative coalition.” However, this government proved fragile, characterized by internal dissent, particularly regarding the PVV’s leadership. Notably, his coalition partners “refused to endorse him as prime minister,” signaling an early indication of the mainstream’s reluctance to fully legitimize his leadership despite his electoral mandate (ST, 2025). The government’s collapse in June 2025, triggered by Wilders’s insistence on “hardline anti-refugee measures” that his partners would not adopt, highlighted the functional difficulties of governing with a party whose core tenets often clash with established democratic and human rights norms, as well as European Union treaties (ST, 2025).

For the 2025 election, Wilders’s platform remained uncompromisingly nativist and economically protectionist. He proposed drastic measures such as “denying all asylum requests — which would violate EU treaties,” “sending male Ukrainian refugees back to Ukraine,” and redirecting “development aid to finance energy and healthcare benefits” for Dutch citizens (ST, 2025). This platform resonated deeply with segments of the electorate, exemplified by figures like Jaap Schilder, a fish shop owner and local politician from Volendam, a Wilders’ stronghold, who articulated the “our own people first” sentiment (ST, 2025). The PVV’s continued prominence in opinion polls, albeit by a narrow margin, reaffirmed the persistent appeal of its anti-immigration and nationalist discourse in the Netherlands.

3. The 2025 Election: A Narrow Lead and a Formidable Centrist Firewall

The 2025 Dutch election unfolded against a backdrop of considerable uncertainty and heightened political tension. Despite Wilders’s strong showing, opinion polls indicated that his Freedom Party (PVV) would win “but only by a narrow margin,” with “four centrist parties spanning the mainstream right and left all finishing within a few seats” (ST, 2025). This tight race underscored the deeply fragmented nature of Dutch politics and the absence of a clear mandate for any single party.

Crucially, the prospect of coalition formation presented a significant “firewall” against Wilders assuming the prime ministership. All four mainstream centrist parties, including the centre-right VVD and Christian Democrats, explicitly stated their refusal to “enter into a coalition with Wilders and his PVV party” (ST, 2025). This collective stance meant that Wilders would “likely be blocked from power unless he wins by an unexpectedly wide margin,” a scenario rendered improbable by the closely contested polls (ST, 2025). This strategic exclusion by mainstream parties highlights a common tactic employed in European democracies to contain populist forces, even when they achieve significant electoral success. It reflects a prioritization of governmental stability and adherence to established democratic principles over accommodating radical policy shifts.

The pre-election period was further characterized by high voter indecision, with “nearly half the electorate…still undecided days ahead of the vote” (ST, 2025). Such volatility makes Dutch elections “increasingly unpredictable,” complicating prognosis and ensuring that post-election “coalition talks lie ahead” will be “a fraught task which can take weeks or months” (ST, 2025). This inherent instability points to a broader challenge for governance in a highly pluralistic and polarized political environment.

4. Policy Platforms and the Contestation of National Direction

Beyond Wilders’s singular focus on immigration and national identity, the election also saw other parties offer distinct visions for the Netherlands, reflecting the diverse concerns of the electorate.

The Christian Democrats, under their new leader Henri Bontenbal, campaigned on a platform emphasizing “government stability and traditional values” (ST, 2025). This appeal aimed to draw support from voters seeking a return to perceived political normalcy and a rejection of the unpredictable nature of populist governance. Similarly, the Centrist D66 party, led by Rob Jetten, offered a “positive messaging” campaign, focusing on tangible domestic issues such as “build[ing] more houses and spend[ing] more on education” (ST, 2025). These alternative platforms illustrate a strategic pivot by mainstream parties to address core societal needs while simultaneously offering a contrast to the often divisive and singular focus of populist agendas. The fact that these parties were “on the rise” and “scoring” in polls suggests a degree of public appetite for pragmatic and inclusive solutions over purely nationalist or anti-establishment narratives (ST, 2025).

The policy debate, therefore, was not merely a contest of personalities but a broader struggle over the national direction. While Wilders sought to fundamentally alter the Netherlands’ approach to immigration and its engagement with the EU, centrist parties aimed to preserve elements of the status quo while addressing domestic challenges through more conventional policy instruments. The electoral results, with Wilders leading narrowly but facing an insurmountable barrier to forming a government, suggested a complex societal mood: a significant portion of the electorate was drawn to radical solutions, but a larger, more fragmented segment remained committed to centrist politics and stability.

5. Implications for European Populism’s Reach and Resilience

The 2025 Dutch parliamentary election offers critical insights into the dynamics of populism in contemporary Europe. It serves as a potent illustration of both the enduring electoral power of populist movements and the systemic challenges they face in translating this power into legitimate and stable governance.

Firstly, Wilders’s continued leading position, even with a narrow margin, confirms that anti-immigration nationalism remains a potent force in European politics. The fact that “nationalist parties [are] topping polls in Britain, France and Germany” underscores that the Dutch case is not isolated but reflective of a broader, continent-wide phenomenon (ST, 2025). The underlying grievances that fuel populism – whether concerns about immigration, economic anxieties, or a perceived loss of national identity – are evidently persistent and widespread.

Secondly, the strategic refusal of mainstream parties to collaborate with Wilders, often termed a “cordon sanitaire,” demonstrates a crucial mechanism by which established democracies can contain populist breakthroughs. If Wilders is indeed blocked from power despite winning the most seats, it indicates a limit to populism’s governing reach, even if its electoral reach remains significant. This suggests that while populist parties can disrupt the political order and attract substantial support, they often struggle to form viable coalitions with parties committed to different ideological frameworks and democratic norms. The Dutch experience thus highlights the resilience of established political institutions and the power of inter-party cooperation in resisting radical shifts.

Finally, the protracted and difficult nature of Dutch coalition formation, coupled with high voter indecision, reflects a broader trend of political fragmentation and instability across Europe. While populist parties contribute to this fragmentation, the inability of traditional parties to coalesce effectively can inadvertently create opportunities for populist narratives to gain traction. The Dutch election, therefore, serves as a bellwether, indicating that while populism may not always achieve direct executive power, its persistent electoral strength and the resultant challenges in forming stable governments continue to shape the political landscape of Europe.

6. Conclusion

The Dutch parliamentary election of October 29, 2025, presented a compelling case study on the enduring appeal and potential limitations of populism in Europe. Geert Wilders’s Freedom Party, despite its consistent anti-immigration and nationalist stance, secured a narrow lead in the polls, confirming the continued resonance of his message with a significant portion of the Dutch electorate. However, the collective decision by mainstream centrist parties to refuse coalition with Wilders created a substantial barrier to his ascent to the prime ministership, positioning the election as a crucial test of whether populist electoral success could be effectively translated into governing power.

The outcome of this election, with Wilders likely facing obstruction from forming a government, suggests that while populism maintains significant electoral traction across Europe, its ability to expand its governing reach remains contested. The Dutch experience underscores the critical role of coalition dynamics and the strategic responses of mainstream parties in delimiting the practical impact of populist breakthroughs. As such, the 2025 Dutch vote offers a nuanced perspective on the future trajectory of European populism, indicating that while its influence on political discourse and voter sentiment is undeniable, its path to sustained executive power within established democratic frameworks often encounters formidable obstacles. The post-election period of challenging coalition negotiations will further illuminate the complex interplay between popular will and institutional resilience in a politically fragmented Europe.

References:

ST. (2025, October 29). Dutch vote in test of European populism’s reach. The Straits Times. Retrieved from [The provided text implies this source, as it begins with “Log in myST+ Menu” and “Get ST’s newsletters”. A specific URL is not provided in the original text, hence it is cited as an article from “ST” (Straits Times) as implied.]

(Note: In a true academic paper, additional scholarly sources on populism in Europe and Dutch politics would be included in the literature review and discussion sections. Given the constraint to only use the provided text, the analysis is confined to the information and implications directly derivable from that single source.)

The Dutch Supreme Court’s October 3, 2025 ruling on F-35 fighter jet parts exports to Israel represents a watershed moment in international arms control law. By mandating that economic and strategic interests be subordinated to international humanitarian law compliance, the court has established a legal framework that reverberates far beyond The Hague. For Singapore—a major defense trade hub and F-35 operator positioned at the intersection of global commerce and regional security—this precedent carries profound implications.

The Legal Revolution: Humanitarian Law Trumps Strategic Interests

Establishing the “Clear Risk” Standard

The Supreme Court’s ruling introduces a demanding evidentiary threshold for arms exports. Ministers must now assess whether there exists a “clear risk” that exported military goods will be used to commit serious violations of international humanitarian law (IHL). This standard is deliberately stringent—it’s not merely about theoretical possibility, but about demonstrable probability based on available evidence.

The court’s framework requires:

1. Active Assessment: Governments cannot rely on passive assurances from recipient states. They must actively investigate end-use scenarios, considering the operational context, historical patterns of use, and ongoing conflicts.
2. Evidence-Based Decision-Making: Ministers must substantiate their conclusions with concrete evidence. Geopolitical convenience or strategic partnership cannot override documented humanitarian concerns.
3. Ongoing Review: The license review isn’t a one-time exercise. As circumstances change on the ground, so too must the assessment of risk.

The Precedential Weight

This ruling establishes several critical legal principles:

Justiciability of Foreign Policy: The court affirmed that arms export decisions, despite their foreign policy implications, remain subject to judicial review. Executive discretion in international relations is not absolute when it conflicts with binding international law obligations.

Hierarchical Obligations: The decision implicitly creates a hierarchy where IHL compliance sits atop economic interests and strategic alliances. This challenges the traditional realpolitik approach where commercial relationships and defense partnerships often overshadow humanitarian concerns.

Ministerial Liability: By mandating that ministers “may no longer allow” exports when clear risks exist, the court transforms what was previously discretionary into a legal obligation. This opens potential avenues for ministerial liability if exports proceed despite documented risks.

The Singapore Context: A Strategic Dilemma

Singapore as a Defense Trade Nexus

Singapore occupies a unique position in the global defense ecosystem. The city-state serves as:

• A major defense manufacturing hub with companies like ST Engineering producing military equipment, munitions, and components exported globally
• A critical transshipment point for defense materials moving between manufacturers and end-users across Asia, the Middle East, and beyond
• An F-35 operator with 12 aircraft on order and four already delivered, making it part of the F-35 global supply chain and maintenance network
• A strategic partner to both Western powers and Middle Eastern states, maintaining defense cooperation agreements with Israel, the United States, and various Gulf nations

This multifaceted role means Singapore is exposed to risks similar to those faced by the Netherlands—potentially facilitating arms transfers that could be used in ways that violate IHL.

Singapore’s Current Export Control Framework

Singapore’s Strategic Goods (Control) Act (SGCA) regulates the export of military and dual-use items. The Act requires exporters to obtain licenses and empowers authorities to deny exports based on several factors, including:

• Singapore’s international obligations
• The intended end-use of the goods
• Concerns about diversion or re-export
• The risk of contributing to internal repression or international aggression

However, the SGCA framework differs from the Dutch court’s mandate in crucial ways:

Discretionary vs. Mandatory: Singapore’s system grants authorities discretion to consider humanitarian concerns, whereas the Dutch ruling makes IHL assessment mandatory.

Transparency Gap: Singapore’s export control decisions are not publicly disclosed or subject to the same degree of judicial scrutiny as in European jurisdictions.

End-Use Verification: While Singapore requires end-user certificates, the extent of ongoing verification and post-export monitoring remains opaque.

Potential Impacts on Singapore

1. Legal and Regulatory Pressures

Harmonization with International Norms: As global legal standards evolve toward mandatory IHL assessments, Singapore may face pressure to align its export controls accordingly. International partners, particularly European nations, may increasingly expect comparable due diligence standards.

Civil Society Challenges: The Dutch case was initiated by civil society organizations. Singapore’s own civil society, though constrained, could potentially leverage international precedents to push for greater transparency in arms export decisions.

Multilateral Obligations: Singapore is party to various arms control regimes and UN treaties. The Dutch precedent strengthens the interpretation that these obligations require active IHL risk assessment, not merely formal compliance.

2. Commercial and Strategic Consequences

Supply Chain Complications: If Singapore becomes a hub for components later used in IHL violations, it could face:

• Reputational damage affecting its broader trade relationships
• Pressure from civil society in trading partner countries
• Potential sanctions or export restrictions from states adopting similar legal frameworks

Defense Industry Competitiveness: Singapore’s defense manufacturers could face competitive disadvantages if subjected to stricter controls than competitors in jurisdictions with less rigorous standards. Conversely, robust compliance could become a market differentiator.

Regional Arms Dynamics: Southeast Asia includes several countries with questionable human rights records. Stricter export controls could complicate Singapore’s defense relationships within ASEAN while potentially creating friction with regional partners.

3. The F-35 Dimension

Singapore’s participation in the F-35 program creates specific vulnerabilities:

Indirect Complicity Risks: As part of the global F-35 sustainment network, Singapore may maintain, service, or supply parts for aircraft operated by countries engaged in conflicts where IHL violations occur. The Dutch precedent suggests this could create legal exposure.

Supply Chain Transparency: The F-35’s highly integrated global supply chain makes it difficult to track component end-use. Parts maintained in Singapore could theoretically end up in aircraft involved in contested operations.

Diplomatic Balancing: Any decision to restrict F-35-related exports or services could strain Singapore’s relationship with the United States, the program lead nation, while potentially placating critics concerned about humanitarian law compliance.

Comparative Legal Analysis: Singapore vs. Netherlands

Judicial Independence and Accountability

The Dutch ruling underscores the role of an independent judiciary in holding the executive accountable on arms exports. The Netherlands has a robust tradition of judicial review in foreign policy matters, demonstrated by previous cases involving international crimes and humanitarian law.

Singapore’s judicial system, while highly regarded for commercial and criminal law, has less established precedent for judicial oversight of foreign policy and defense matters. The Internal Security Act and Official Secrets Act further constrain transparency around national security decisions.

This structural difference means that even if Singapore adopted similar legal standards, enforcement mechanisms would differ substantially.

Transparency and Public Accountability

The Dutch case was precipitated by detailed public reporting on F-35 exports and civil society litigation. The Court of Appeal’s February 2024 ruling was based on publicly available evidence of potential IHL violations in Gaza.

Singapore maintains strict confidentiality around defense exports. The government does not publish detailed information about:

• Specific export licenses granted or denied
• Countries to which military equipment is exported
• Quantities or types of equipment transferred
• The basis for export control decisions

This opacity makes it difficult for civil society, parliament, or the judiciary to scrutinize whether exports comply with IHL obligations.

Strategic Culture and Foreign Policy

The Netherlands, as an EU member state, operates within a framework that increasingly prioritizes humanitarian concerns and human rights in foreign policy. The EU Common Position on Arms Exports establishes strict criteria, including respect for international humanitarian law.

Singapore’s foreign policy is characterized by pragmatic non-alignment, economic interdependence, and careful balancing between major powers. The city-state has historically been reluctant to take positions that could jeopardize commercial relationships or strategic partnerships.

Implications for Regional and Global Arms Trade

The Domino Effect

Legal precedents in major trading nations create ripple effects throughout global supply chains. If other European nations adopt similar frameworks following the Dutch ruling:

Compliance Standardization: Multinational defense contractors may implement uniform due diligence standards across all markets to manage legal risk, effectively exporting European legal standards globally.

Market Fragmentation: Alternatively, markets could fragment, with suppliers redirecting trade through jurisdictions with less stringent controls, potentially diminishing global humanitarian law compliance.

Competitive Recalibration: Countries with robust IHL assessment frameworks could lose market share to those with more permissive regimes, creating a “race to the bottom” unless multilateral coordination occurs.

ASEAN Dynamics

Within Southeast Asia, varying approaches to arms export controls reflect different political systems and strategic priorities:

Diverse Standards: ASEAN members range from democracies with relatively transparent systems to authoritarian states with opaque defense industries. Harmonizing export controls would be extraordinarily challenging.

Singapore’s Leadership Role: As ASEAN’s most developed defense industrial base, Singapore could potentially champion stronger regional export control norms. However, this could create friction with members who view such standards as Western impositions.

China Factor: China’s growing role as both arms supplier and security partner to ASEAN nations complicates any move toward stricter controls based on Western legal precedents.

Practical Pathways: Singapore’s Options

Option 1: Proactive Alignment

Singapore could proactively strengthen its export control framework to align with emerging international standards:

Legislative Reform: Amend the SGCA to mandate IHL risk assessment for all military exports, similar to the Dutch court’s requirements.

Institutional Capacity: Establish specialized units within relevant ministries to conduct detailed end-use analysis, incorporating expertise in international humanitarian law, conflict analysis, and human rights.

Transparency Measures: Publish aggregate data on export licenses and denials, and establish mechanisms for parliamentary and public oversight of export control decisions.

Benefits: This approach would enhance Singapore’s international reputation, reduce legal and reputational risks, and position the city-state as a responsible defense trade hub. It could also preempt future civil society challenges or international pressure.

Risks: Potential short-term economic costs, friction with strategic partners, and competitive disadvantages if other regional players don’t follow suit.

Option 2: Status Quo with Enhanced Due Diligence

Singapore could maintain its current legal framework while enhancing internal due diligence processes:

Risk Assessment Protocols: Develop comprehensive internal guidelines for IHL risk assessment without codifying them in legislation.

Selective Engagement: Apply enhanced scrutiny to exports to conflict zones or countries with documented humanitarian law concerns, while maintaining streamlined processes for low-risk destinations.

Quiet Diplomacy: Address potential concerns through bilateral diplomatic channels rather than public announcements or regulatory changes.

Benefits: This preserves flexibility and avoids public commitments that could constrain strategic options or create diplomatic complications.

Risks: Lack of transparency could lead to reputational damage if exports contribute to IHL violations. Internal guidelines without legislative backing may not satisfy international expectations or withstand legal challenges.

Option 3: Defensive Positioning

Singapore could adopt a more defensive stance, emphasizing the limits of its responsibility:

Buyer Responsibility: Emphasize that end-use responsibility lies with purchasing nations, not intermediary suppliers or transit points.

Technical Neutrality: Argue that Singapore’s role in defense supply chains is technical and commercial rather than political, analogous to civilian commercial transit.

Selective Restrictions: Implement targeted restrictions only when absolutely necessary to preserve core strategic relationships, while resisting broader systemic changes.

Benefits: Minimal disruption to current practices and commercial relationships.

Risks: This approach increasingly appears anachronistic as international legal standards evolve. It could lead to isolation from emerging norms and eventual forced compliance under less favorable circumstances.

The Ethical Dimension: Beyond Legal Compliance

Singapore’s Values and International Role

Singapore has long positioned itself as a responsible international actor committed to the rule of law. The government frequently emphasizes:

• Respect for international law as a cornerstone of small state security
• The importance of a rules-based international order
• Singapore’s commitment to multilateral institutions and treaties

The Dutch precedent tests whether these principles extend to areas where commercial interests and strategic partnerships are at stake. It raises fundamental questions:

Consistency: Can Singapore credibly champion international law while maintaining arms trade practices that fall short of emerging humanitarian law standards?

Moral Hazard: Does facilitating arms transfers without robust IHL assessment make Singapore complicit in potential violations, regardless of legal technicalities?

Long-term Reputation: What is the reputational cost of being perceived as a weak link in global efforts to prevent humanitarian law violations through arms control?

The Human Impact

Beyond legal abstractions, arms export decisions have concrete human consequences. Components manufactured, transshipped, or maintained in Singapore may ultimately be used in conflicts where civilians are killed or injured.

The Dutch case arose from the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, where tens of thousands have died. While Singapore is far removed from the Israel-Palestine conflict, its participation in global defense supply chains means its decisions have real-world impacts on distant populations.

This raises profound ethical questions about responsibility in an interconnected world. Can geographic distance or supply chain complexity absolve responsibility for contributing to humanitarian harm?

Conclusion: Navigating Complexity in an Evolving Legal Landscape

The Dutch Supreme Court ruling represents more than a single national court decision—it signals a fundamental shift in how the international community views the intersection of arms trade, strategic interests, and humanitarian law. The principle that IHL compliance must trump economic and strategic considerations is gaining legal force.

For Singapore, this evolving landscape presents both challenges and opportunities. The city-state’s unique position as a defense industry hub, F-35 operator, and advocate for international law creates particular complexity.

The Challenge: Balancing commercial interests, strategic partnerships, and practical realpolitik against growing expectations for humanitarian law compliance in arms exports.

The Opportunity: Leading by example in establishing robust, transparent export controls that set regional standards and enhance Singapore’s reputation as a responsible international actor.

The Imperative: Whatever path Singapore chooses, the Dutch precedent makes clear that passive approaches are no longer sustainable. The question is not whether to engage with IHL considerations in arms exports, but how comprehensively and transparently to do so.

As global legal standards continue to evolve, Singapore’s response to this precedent will reveal much about its values, priorities, and vision for its role in the international community. The decision transcends legal compliance—it goes to the heart of what kind of nation Singapore aspires to be in an increasingly complex and morally demanding world.

The Dutch court has thrown down a gauntlet. How Singapore responds will shape not only its defense industry future but its broader international identity for decades to come.

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