A Diplomatic Tightrope Walk
On November 7, 2025, Taiwan Vice-President Hsiao Bi-khim stepped onto the floor of the European Parliament in Brussels, marking one of the most significant diplomatic maneuvers by Taipei in recent years. Her appearance at the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China’s annual summit represents not merely a speech, but a calculated recalibration of Taiwan’s foreign policy strategy—one that carries profound implications for regional stability, great power competition, and Singapore’s own delicate balancing act in the Indo-Pacific.
The Unprecedented Nature of the Visit
Breaking Diplomatic Norms
To understand the significance of Vice-President Hsiao’s Brussels appearance, one must appreciate the extraordinary rarity of such a visit. Taiwan maintains formal diplomatic relations with only 12 countries worldwide, and in Europe, solely with the Vatican. For a vice-president—the second-highest constitutional office in Taiwan—to travel to a region where Taipei has no official recognition represents a dramatic departure from traditional diplomatic caution.
Historically, Taiwan has navigated its international isolation through careful, often unofficial channels. Former presidents have made “transit stops” in the United States, and foreign ministers occasionally visit sympathetic nations under the guise of “private” or “cultural” exchanges. However, Hsiao’s appearance was neither clandestine nor apologetic. She addressed lawmakers directly in the heart of European political power, speaking openly about Taiwan’s democratic values and its right to international engagement.
The Chinese Dimension: Calculating Risk
The decision to send such a senior official to Brussels was undertaken with full awareness of potential Chinese retaliation. Beijing has consistently demanded that countries with which it maintains diplomatic relations adhere to the “One China” principle, which asserts that Taiwan is an inalienable part of Chinese territory. When Lithuania allowed Taiwan to open a representative office under its own name in 2021, China responded with economic coercion, including trade restrictions and removal from Chinese customs systems.
Yet Taiwan proceeded with Hsiao’s visit regardless. This suggests several strategic calculations:
First, Taiwan’s leadership has assessed that the geopolitical environment has shifted sufficiently to absorb Chinese backlash. With growing concerns about Beijing’s assertiveness in the South China Sea, its support for Russia, and its economic coercion tactics, European nations may be more willing to withstand Chinese pressure.
Second, Taiwan appears to be testing the limits of what Beijing will tolerate. By sending Hsiao rather than President Lai Ching-te himself, Taiwan demonstrates ambition while maintaining a degree of deniability and restraint.
Third, Taipei may calculate that Chinese responses—whether economic sanctions on Belgium or diplomatic protests—will actually strengthen Taiwan’s narrative as a democracy under authoritarian threat, potentially generating more international sympathy.
The Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China: Strategic Forum Selection
Understanding IPAC
Hsiao’s choice of forum was itself strategically significant. The Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC) is not a traditional intergovernmental organization but rather a cross-party coalition of legislators from democratic countries concerned about China’s growing influence. Founded in 2020, IPAC has become increasingly vocal on issues ranging from Xinjiang human rights to economic security and Taiwan’s international status.
By addressing IPAC rather than attempting a bilateral visit or speaking at the European Parliament in an official capacity, Taiwan achieved several objectives:
- Plausible Deniability: The event was organized by parliamentarians, not governments, allowing European nations to maintain they did not “officially” host a senior Taiwan official.
- Amplified Messaging: IPAC members represent legislatures across democracies, multiplying the audience beyond just European Union member states.
- Values-Based Framing: IPAC positions itself around democratic values and human rights rather than traditional geopolitics, allowing Taiwan to present its case in moral rather than purely strategic terms.
Hsiao’s Core Messages
Vice-President Hsiao’s remarks at the summit centered on three interconnected themes:
Democratic Solidarity: “Europe has defended freedom under fire. And Taiwan has defended democracy under pressure,” she stated, explicitly linking Taiwan’s struggle for international recognition with Europe’s historical battles against authoritarianism. This rhetorical strategy positions Taiwan not as a strategic asset but as a fellow democracy deserving support on principle.
Responsible Global Actor: Despite exclusion from international organizations like the United Nations, World Health Organization, and International Civil Aviation Organization, Hsiao emphasized that “Taiwan has stepped up. We contribute to humanitarian aid. We uphold global standards even when we are not allowed a seat at the table.” This message counters Chinese claims that Taiwan’s participation in global governance is unnecessary or would be destabilizing.
Economic Interdependence: By highlighting that “stability across the Taiwan Strait was a cornerstone of global prosperity,” Hsiao reminded European leaders of their economic stake in preventing conflict. Taiwan produces over 60% of the world’s semiconductors and more than 90% of the most advanced chips—a fact that makes Taiwan Strait stability a matter of economic security for Europe.
Broader Context: Taiwan’s European Offensive
A Coordinated Campaign
Hsiao’s visit was not an isolated incident but part of a coordinated diplomatic offensive. In September 2025, Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung made two trips to Europe, visiting Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland, and Italy. Former President Tsai Ing-wen is scheduled to address a conference in Berlin. This clustering of high-level visits suggests a deliberate strategy to normalize Taiwan’s presence in European political discourse.
The establishment of a dedicated Europe task force within Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry indicates this is not a temporary campaign but a sustained strategic priority. Taiwan appears to be applying lessons learned from its successful cultivation of relationships with individual European nations—particularly those in Central and Eastern Europe with their own experiences of authoritarian pressure.
Why Europe? Why Now?
Several factors explain Taiwan’s intensified focus on Europe:
Shifting American Dynamics: While the United States remains Taiwan’s most important security partner, the election of Donald Trump has introduced uncertainty. Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy and his suggestion that Taiwan should pay for American defense creates anxiety in Taipei. Diversifying international support beyond Washington becomes imperative.
European Strategic Awakening: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally altered European security consciousness. Many European leaders now view Chinese support for Russia and potential aggression against Taiwan through a similar lens—autocracies challenging the rules-based international order. This creates political space for engagement with Taiwan.
Economic Security Concerns: Europe’s dependence on Chinese manufacturing and Taiwanese semiconductors has become a strategic vulnerability. The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent supply chain disruptions prompted European leaders to prioritize economic security, making Taiwan’s technological prowess more relevant.
Chinese Economic Coercion Fatigue: As China has wielded economic pressure against Lithuania, Australia, and other countries, the effectiveness of such tactics has diminished. Countries increasingly recognize that accommodation doesn’t guarantee immunity from Chinese pressure, reducing the deterrent effect of potential retaliation.
Implications for Singapore: Navigating Turbulent Waters
Singapore’s Delicate Balancing Act
Singapore occupies a uniquely precarious position in the evolving dynamics between China, Taiwan, and Western powers. As a small, trade-dependent city-state with significant ethnic Chinese population, Singapore must carefully calibrate its relationships with all parties. Taiwan’s more assertive diplomacy complicates this balance in several ways.
Economic Interdependence
Singapore maintains robust economic ties with both China and Taiwan. China is Singapore’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade exceeding $100 billion annually. Simultaneously, Taiwan represents a significant investment destination and technology partner for Singapore companies. The semiconductor industry, in which Taiwan is dominant and Singapore is a regional hub for assembly and testing, creates deep integration between the two economies.
If Taiwan’s assertive diplomacy provokes Chinese economic retaliation—such as restrictions on Taiwanese semiconductor exports or financial flows—Singapore’s economy would feel secondary effects. Disruption to Taiwan Strait stability could interrupt critical supply chains passing through Singapore’s ports and affect the city-state’s role as a regional logistics hub.
Diplomatic Precedents and Pressures
Singapore has historically adhered strictly to the One China policy, maintaining official relations with Beijing while cultivating unofficial but substantial ties with Taiwan. Singaporean officials avoid high-profile interactions with senior Taiwan figures, and Taiwan’s representative office in Singapore operates under carefully constrained protocols.
However, Taiwan’s success in engaging European nations could create pressure on Singapore to reconsider the boundaries of acceptable interaction. If multiple democracies begin hosting senior Taiwan officials without catastrophic consequences, Singapore may face questions about whether its current policies remain necessary or overly restrictive.
Conversely, Singapore must be attentive to Chinese sensitivities. Beijing views Southeast Asia, particularly countries with significant ethnic Chinese populations, as areas of special influence. Any perception that Singapore is tilting toward Taiwan could provoke diplomatic or economic responses that would be costly for the city-state.
ASEAN Unity and the Taiwan Question
Taiwan’s assertive diplomacy also has implications for ASEAN cohesion. While ASEAN maintains a collective stance of not interfering in the Taiwan question, individual member states have varying relationships with Taipei. The Philippines and Vietnam, both in territorial disputes with China, may view Taiwan’s resistance to Chinese pressure sympathetically. Cambodia and Laos, closely aligned with Beijing, would likely oppose any ASEAN engagement with Taiwan.
Singapore, as a frequent ASEAN leader and bridge-builder, must work to prevent the Taiwan question from becoming another source of disunity within the regional bloc—similar to how disagreements over South China Sea policy have challenged ASEAN cohesion.
Security Considerations
While often framed as an economic and diplomatic issue, the Taiwan question is fundamentally about security. Any military conflict in the Taiwan Strait would have devastating consequences for Singapore. Maritime trade routes, including those critical to Singapore’s survival, would be disrupted. Regional militarization would accelerate. Chinese power projection would be demonstrated, with implications for all of Southeast Asia.
Singapore’s significant investments in defense and its close security cooperation with the United States reflect awareness of these risks. However, Singapore must balance its security interests with diplomatic realities. Unlike European nations geographically distant from China, Singapore operates in Beijing’s immediate sphere of influence, making the costs of Chinese displeasure potentially more severe.
The Semiconductor Dimension
The semiconductor industry deserves special attention in assessing Singapore’s interests. Taiwan’s dominance in advanced chip manufacturing makes it indispensable to the global economy. Singapore has carved out its own niche in semiconductor assembly, testing, and packaging, creating deep integration with Taiwanese producers.
Taiwan’s diplomatic assertiveness partly derives from confidence that its semiconductor dominance provides leverage—that other nations need Taiwan as much as Taiwan needs them. For Singapore, this creates both opportunity and risk. If Taiwan successfully leverages its technological position to gain international support, Singapore could benefit from enhanced stability and continued access to Taiwanese technology.
However, if Taiwan’s assertiveness provokes a crisis that disrupts semiconductor supply chains, Singapore’s semiconductor industry would suffer directly. Additionally, China’s massive investments in developing indigenous semiconductor capabilities are partly motivated by determination to reduce dependence on Taiwan—an outcome that could diminish Taiwan’s strategic value and Singapore’s associated position.
Strategic Analysis: What Taiwan’s Move Reveals
Confidence or Desperation?
Taiwan’s increasingly bold diplomatic outreach can be interpreted in contrasting ways. Optimistically, it reflects growing confidence that international support for Taiwan has reached a critical mass, making assertive diplomacy viable. The proliferation of unofficial visits, the embrace of Taiwan by certain political factions in the United States and Europe, and concerns about Chinese authoritarianism all suggest a more favorable environment for Taipei.
Pessimistically, Taiwan’s assertiveness could reflect anxiety about future support. With uncertainty about American commitment, particularly under Trump, and concerns about European distraction with other crises, Taiwan may feel it must lock in international relationships now, while conditions are favorable. The window for building support may be narrowing as China’s economic and military power continues to grow.
The reality likely combines both elements. Taiwan recognizes improved opportunities while simultaneously preparing for potential deterioration in its strategic environment.
Beijing’s Dilemma
China faces its own difficult calculations regarding Taiwan’s diplomatic offensive. Aggressive responses risk validating Taiwan’s narrative as a democracy threatened by an authoritarian power, potentially generating more international sympathy for Taipei. Economic retaliation against European nations could accelerate their diversification away from Chinese markets and strengthen transatlantic unity.
However, failing to respond could signal that China will tolerate increasingly brazen challenges to its core interests, potentially encouraging further boundary-testing by Taiwan and its supporters. Beijing’s response to Hsiao’s visit—or lack thereof—will be carefully analyzed by observers assessing how China balances its desire to punish provocations against its need to maintain productive relationships with major economies.
The Role of International Law and Norms
Underlying the entire Taiwan question is tension between competing international legal principles. China invokes sovereignty and territorial integrity—fundamental principles of the post-World War II international order embodied in the UN Charter. Taiwan and its supporters invoke self-determination, democratic governance, and the right of peoples to choose their own political systems.
Taiwan’s engagement with the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China emphasizes the values-based dimension of this debate, framing the issue as democracy versus authoritarianism rather than sovereignty versus separatism. This rhetorical strategy resonates particularly in Europe, where historical experience with fascism and communism has produced strong attachment to democratic principles.
Future Scenarios and Singapore’s Options
Scenario 1: Normalization
If Taiwan’s diplomatic offensive succeeds in normalizing high-level contacts without provoking catastrophic Chinese retaliation, Singapore may need to reassess the parameters of its own engagement with Taiwan. A gradual expansion of unofficial contacts—ministerial visits, increased economic cooperation, participation in multilateral forums—could become feasible without triggering severe Chinese responses.
In this scenario, Singapore would benefit from enhanced access to Taiwanese technology and investment while maintaining its One China policy. However, Singapore would need to carefully manage the pace and visibility of any enhanced engagement to avoid appearing opportunistic or provocative.
Scenario 2: Chinese Retaliation and Escalation
If China responds to Taiwan’s assertiveness with significant economic or military pressure, Singapore faces difficult choices. Economic coercion against European nations would test international resolve and potentially accelerate supply chain diversification. Military escalation in the Taiwan Strait—even short of invasion—would create immediate disruptions to trade and investment.
Singapore would likely adopt a low-profile approach, avoiding actions that could attract Chinese attention while quietly strengthening economic and security resilience. Enhanced cooperation with ASEAN partners on contingency planning and supply chain redundancy would become priorities.
Scenario 3: Strategic Stalemate
The most likely scenario involves continued ambiguity. Taiwan pushes boundaries incrementally, China protests and applies selective pressure, but neither side triggers a decisive crisis. In this environment of managed tension, Singapore continues its careful balancing act, maintaining the One China policy while cultivating practical cooperation with Taiwan in areas like trade, technology, and cultural exchange.
This scenario requires constant diplomatic calibration but aligns with Singapore’s historical approach to great power competition—avoiding rigid alignment while preserving maximum flexibility.
Recommendations for Singapore’s Policy
1. Maintain Strategic Clarity
Singapore should continue clearly articulating its One China policy while explaining that this does not preclude practical cooperation with Taiwan on non-political matters. Transparency about Singapore’s position reduces the risk of misunderstanding by either Beijing or Taipei.
2. Strengthen ASEAN Cohesion
Singapore should work within ASEAN to develop shared approaches to Taiwan-related questions, preventing the issue from becoming another source of bloc division. While consensus may be impossible, establishing processes for consultation and information-sharing would be valuable.
3. Diversify Economic Relationships
Singapore should accelerate efforts to diversify supply chains and economic partnerships, reducing vulnerability to disruption from any source—whether Taiwan Strait conflict, Chinese economic coercion, or other shocks. This includes developing indigenous capabilities in critical technologies.
4. Enhance Contingency Planning
Government and private sector entities should develop detailed contingency plans for various Taiwan Strait scenarios, including supply chain disruptions, financial market volatility, and refugee flows. Regular exercises and simulations would improve preparedness.
5. Pursue Quiet Diplomacy
Rather than high-profile positioning, Singapore’s interests are best served by behind-the-scenes diplomacy encouraging all parties to exercise restraint. Singapore’s relationships with all stakeholders position it well for such a role.
6. Invest in Strategic Communications
Singapore should develop clear, consistent messaging about its interests and positions regarding Taiwan, China, and regional stability. This includes domestic communications preparing the public for potential regional tensions.
Conclusion: The Stakes for Singapore
Taiwan Vice-President Hsiao Bi-khim’s appearance at the European Parliament represents more than a diplomatic event—it signals a fundamental shift in Taiwan’s approach to international engagement, moving from cautious incrementalism to calculated boldness. For Singapore, this shift creates both opportunities and risks.
The opportunities lie in potential enhanced stability if Taiwan successfully builds international support networks that deter Chinese aggression. A confident Taiwan, backed by meaningful international relationships, might represent a more secure status quo than an isolated Taiwan growing desperate.
The risks involve escalation dynamics that Singapore cannot control but from which it cannot escape. As a small state dependent on regional stability, open trade routes, and great power restraint, Singapore has enormous stakes in how the Taiwan question evolves.
Taiwan’s diplomatic offensive forces Singapore and other regional actors to confront questions they might prefer to defer: How much support should democracies provide to Taiwan? At what point does that support become provocative rather than protective? How can competing principles—sovereignty, self-determination, regional stability—be reconciled?
These questions have no easy answers, but they demand serious analysis and careful policy responses. As Taiwan steps more boldly onto the international stage, Singapore must navigate with both principle and pragmatism, defending its interests while contributing to regional stability. The path forward requires wisdom, flexibility, and clear-eyed assessment of a rapidly evolving strategic landscape where the stakes—peace, prosperity, and regional order—could not be higher.
Taiwan Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung’s assertion that Taiwan-US relations remain “very stable” despite an impending Trump-Xi summit represents a carefully calibrated diplomatic message aimed at reassuring domestic and international audiences. This analysis examines the strategic dimensions of Taiwan’s position, the credibility of the “stability” claim, and the significant implications for Singapore and Southeast Asia.
The Strategic Context: Reading Between Diplomatic Lines
Taiwan’s Calculated Confidence
Foreign Minister Lin’s public statement of confidence serves multiple strategic purposes beyond simple reassurance. By declaring Taiwan-US relations “very stable” with “close cooperation” on security, trade, and business, Lin is attempting to:
- Shape the narrative preemptively: Rather than waiting to respond to potential outcomes from the Trump-Xi meeting, Taiwan is establishing its interpretation of bilateral relations before any deals are struck.
- Signal resilience to Beijing: Demonstrating that Taiwan does not view itself as a bargaining chip sends a message to China that any agreements made without Taiwan’s input lack legitimacy.
- Reassure domestic audiences: Taiwan’s 23 million people need confidence that their government maintains strong international backing, particularly as they face increasing military pressure from China.
The Reality Behind the Rhetoric
However, Lin’s confidence must be weighed against concerning developments:
Arms Sales Freeze: The most concrete measure of US commitment to Taiwan’s defense has been weapons sales. Trump’s failure to approve any new arms packages since taking office in January 2025 represents a significant departure from precedent. Previous administrations typically announced arms sales packages within their first year, viewing them as routine fulfillment of the Taiwan Relations Act obligations.
Trump’s Transactional Approach: The President’s vacillating position on Taiwan correlates directly with trade negotiation progress with China. This suggests Taiwan’s security is being viewed through an economic lens rather than as a strategic imperative, a worrying shift from traditional US policy.
The Xi “Promise”: Trump’s repeated references to Xi’s assurance about not invading Taiwan during his presidency is problematic on multiple levels:
- It treats Taiwan’s security as a personal agreement rather than a systemic commitment
- It implicitly acknowledges China’s right to determine Taiwan’s future
- It provides no assurance beyond Trump’s term in office
- It may embolden China to increase “grey zone” activities short of invasion
Assessing the “Stability” Claim
Areas of Genuine Cooperation
Lin’s claim finds support in several continuing areas of collaboration:
Trade Relations: Taiwan-US trade reached record levels in recent years, with Taiwan being a crucial partner in semiconductor supply chains. The US remains heavily dependent on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) for advanced chips.
Unofficial Diplomatic Engagement: Regular visits by US officials to Taiwan and Taiwanese representatives to Washington continue, maintaining institutional relationships even without formal diplomatic recognition.
Intelligence Sharing: Behind-the-scenes security cooperation likely continues, as both nations share interests in monitoring Chinese military activities.
Warning Signs of Instability
Several factors undermine the “very stable” characterization:
Policy Unpredictability: Trump’s inconsistent statements about Taiwan create uncertainty that destabilizes defense planning and economic decision-making.
Reduced Public Commitments: The absence of strong public statements affirming US support contrasts with previous administrations’ clarity on defending democratic partners.
The APEC Summit Dynamic: The fact that a Trump-Xi meeting generates such anxiety in Taipei itself indicates underlying instability in the relationship.
Singapore’s Strategic Calculations
Direct Implications for Singapore
Singapore faces multifaceted impacts from Taiwan Strait tensions:
Economic Vulnerability: Singapore’s economy is deeply integrated with both China (largest trading partner) and the US (major investor and security partner). Any conflict or major shift in Taiwan’s status would force impossible choices:
- Trade routes: The Taiwan Strait is a critical shipping lane. Approximately 88% of the world’s largest container ships are built in Asia, and many pass through these waters. Singapore, as a global maritime hub, would face immediate disruption to its port activities and supply chains.
- Semiconductor dependence: Singapore’s advanced manufacturing sector relies heavily on semiconductors from Taiwan. TSMC supplies chips essential to Singapore’s electronics and precision engineering industries. Any disruption would cascade through Singapore’s economy.
- Financial markets: Singapore’s position as a regional financial center means Taiwanese investments and capital flows are significant. Uncertainty around Taiwan affects market stability and investor confidence in the region.
Defense and Security Concerns:
Singapore maintains careful neutrality but has clear interests:
- The Singapore Armed Forces conduct training exercises with both US forces (through various bilateral agreements) and maintain defense cooperation with Taiwan’s military-industrial complex.
- Singapore’s Air Force has long-standing training arrangements in Taiwan, with facilities in Taichung and other locations. These arrangements could become politically untenable in a crisis.
- ASEAN unity: Any Taiwan crisis would test ASEAN’s consensus-based approach and potentially divide member states between pro-US and pro-China factions.
The Precedent Problem:
How the US handles Taiwan sets precedents for other regional disputes:
- If the US appears to “trade away” Taiwan’s interests, smaller nations like Singapore may question the reliability of American security commitments.
- This could accelerate regional hedging strategies, with countries diversifying security partnerships and potentially accommodating Chinese preferences to avoid being “abandoned.”
Singapore’s Diplomatic Balancing Act
Singapore’s approach to the Taiwan question reflects its broader foreign policy philosophy:
Principled Pragmatism: Singapore consistently emphasizes:
- Respect for international law and sovereignty
- Peaceful resolution of disputes
- The importance of dialogue and negotiation
- The right of small nations to exist without external coercion
These principles apply implicitly to Taiwan without Singapore formally taking sides on its status.
Economic Engagement with All Parties: Singapore maintains robust economic ties with Taiwan, China, and the US simultaneously:
- Singapore is among the top investors in China
- Taiwanese companies have significant operations in Singapore
- US firms use Singapore as a regional headquarters
Strategic Ambiguity: Singapore avoids taking explicit positions on Taiwan’s political status while maintaining practical cooperation with Taipei. This allows Singapore to:
- Preserve relationships with all parties
- Avoid being forced to choose sides prematurely
- Maintain credibility as a neutral venue for dialogue
Regional Stability and the ASEAN Dimension
ASEAN’s Collective Concerns
The Trump-Xi meeting occurs against the backdrop of the APEC summit, where ASEAN nations are pushing for stronger trade ties. The juxtaposition is significant:
Economic Integration vs. Security Tensions: ASEAN nations, including Singapore, seek to deepen economic cooperation through frameworks like RCEP while simultaneously managing security concerns about Taiwan.
The South China Sea Parallel: Taiwan tensions are inseparable from broader maritime disputes. If China feels emboldened regarding Taiwan, it may become more assertive in the South China Sea, directly affecting several ASEAN nations.
US Credibility in the Region: Southeast Asian nations watch US handling of Taiwan as an indicator of American commitment to the region. Perceived weakness could accelerate:
- Chinese influence in Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar
- Pressure on the Philippines to abandon its US alliance
- Reduced confidence in US security guarantees
Singapore’s Leadership Role
As ASEAN chair in past cycles and a respected voice in regional affairs, Singapore has particular responsibilities:
Maintaining Regional Dialogue: Singapore can facilitate conversations between ASEAN, China, and the US to prevent miscalculation.
Promoting Conflict Prevention: Singapore’s diplomatic efforts can emphasize crisis management mechanisms and confidence-building measures in the Taiwan Strait.
Defending the Rules-Based Order: Singapore consistently advocates for international law and multilateral frameworks, which provide protection for small states in a region dominated by great powers.
Scenario Analysis: Potential Outcomes and Singapore’s Responses
Scenario 1: Status Quo Maintenance
Outcome: The Trump-Xi meeting produces minimal concrete agreements on Taiwan, with both sides reiterating existing positions.
Singapore Impact: Low immediate impact. Singapore continues its balanced approach, maintains economic ties with all parties, and focuses on ASEAN regional integration.
Probability: Moderate to high, as dramatic shifts are difficult to negotiate quickly.
Scenario 2: US-China Grand Bargain
Outcome: Trump agrees to reduce arms sales or limit US official engagement with Taiwan in exchange for Chinese trade concessions or other benefits.
Singapore Impact:
- Significant concern about US reliability as a security partner
- Accelerated hedging strategies, possibly including deeper security cooperation with other partners (Australia, Japan, India)
- Increased pressure to accommodate Chinese preferences on regional issues
- Potential economic opportunities if US-China trade tensions ease, but long-term strategic costs
Probability: Low to moderate, as such deals would face domestic US opposition and be difficult to verify.
Scenario 3: Escalatory Rhetoric
Outcome: The meeting produces heightened tensions, with both leaders issuing stronger statements and China increasing military activities around Taiwan.
Singapore Impact:
- Immediate financial market volatility affecting Singapore’s economy
- Increased defense spending pressures
- Need to prepare contingency plans for supply chain disruptions
- Heightened diplomatic activity to prevent conflict
Probability: Low to moderate, as neither side currently seeks open conflict, but miscalculation risks exist.
Scenario 4: Incremental Accommodation
Outcome: The US and China reach informal understandings that gradually shift the status quo in China’s favor without dramatic announcements.
Singapore Impact:
- Slow erosion of confidence in US commitments
- Gradual reorientation of regional policies toward China
- Singapore faces difficult choices about military cooperation and political positioning
- Long-term implications for Singapore’s sovereignty and autonomy
Probability: Moderate, as this approach minimizes immediate disruption while achieving Chinese objectives.
Policy Recommendations for Singapore
Short-Term Measures
- Diversify Supply Chains: Accelerate efforts to reduce single-point dependencies on Taiwan for critical components, particularly semiconductors.
- Strengthen ASEAN Unity: Use diplomatic channels to ensure ASEAN maintains a cohesive position on Taiwan Strait stability, preventing member states from being divided.
- Enhance Contingency Planning: Update plans for economic disruptions, refugee flows, and potential military spillover from any Taiwan crisis.
- Maintain Balanced Messaging: Continue emphasizing principles (peaceful resolution, international law) without taking explicit positions on Taiwan’s status.
Medium to Long-Term Strategies
- Develop Alternative Security Partnerships: While maintaining the US relationship, deepen security cooperation with Australia, Japan, India, and European partners to avoid over-reliance on any single power.
- Invest in Defense Capabilities: Ensure Singapore’s military remains technologically advanced and capable of defending national interests regardless of great power dynamics.
- Economic Resilience Building: Continue developing Singapore as a hub for multiple supply chains and financial flows, reducing vulnerability to any single relationship.
- Regional Institution Strengthening: Support ASEAN mechanisms and other multilateral frameworks that give small states collective voice and influence.
- Principled Flexibility: Maintain Singapore’s reputation for principle while adapting tactics to changing realities, ensuring the nation remains relevant and respected by all major powers.
Conclusion: Stability as Aspiration vs. Reality
Foreign Minister Lin’s assertion of “very stable” Taiwan-US relations reflects aspiration as much as current reality. While institutional cooperation continues in many areas, the absence of new arms sales, Trump’s transactional approach, and the anxiety surrounding the APEC summit all suggest underlying fragility.
For Singapore, the Taiwan question is not merely an external issue to observe but a critical factor in strategic planning. The island nation’s prosperity and security depend on a stable regional order where international law prevails over coercion, where small states can maintain independence, and where economic integration proceeds without military conflict.
The Trump-Xi meeting will provide important signals about the trajectory of US-China relations and the fate of Taiwan. Singapore must watch closely, prepare comprehensively, and engage diplomatically to promote outcomes that preserve regional stability and the rules-based international order that has enabled small states to thrive.
The coming days will test whether Lin’s confidence is justified or whether Taiwan—and by extension, the entire region—faces a more uncertain future. For Singapore, the imperative remains clear: maintain maximum flexibility, strengthen national capabilities, and work tirelessly to prevent the great power competition from destabilizing the region that is home to 680 million people and represents one of the world’s most dynamic economic zones.
The stability that Minister Lin describes is not a given but rather something that must be actively constructed and defended by all nations with stakes in peace and prosperity across the Taiwan Strait and the broader Indo-Pacific region.
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