The controversial 28-point peace plan drafted following a meeting between Trump administration officials and sanctioned Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev in Miami (October 2025) represents a significant geopolitical development with far-reaching implications for small states like Singapore. This case study examines the incident, analyzes potential outcomes, and assesses impacts on Singapore’s strategic interests.
Case Study: The Miami Meeting and 28-Point Plan
Background
In late October 2025, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), at the Faena Hotel in Miami. Dmitriev has been under U.S. sanctions since 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but received a special waiver from the Trump administration for this meeting.
Key Players
U.S. Side:
- Steve Witkoff (Special Envoy)
- Jared Kushner (President’s son-in-law)
Russian Side:
- Kirill Dmitriev (Close Putin ally, RDIF head, sanctioned since 2022)
Notably Excluded:
- Keith Kellogg (Special Envoy for Ukraine, who had been leading negotiations)
- Most senior State Department officials
- National Security Council staff
The 28-Point Plan: Major Elements
The plan reportedly includes Russia’s longstanding demands:
- Ukraine cedes territory in eastern regions it still controls
- Recognition of Crimea as Russian territory
- Ukraine pledges not to join NATO
- Security guarantees and economic incentives for both sides
Process Irregularities
Circumvented Protocols:
- Normal interagency coordination was bypassed
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly not properly briefed
- Plan contained elements Rubio had previously rejected
- Direct negotiations with sanctioned Russian official without proper oversight
Intelligence Community Concerns:
- Dmitriev’s history of using RDIF position to cultivate Western contacts
- Previous involvement with Trump team during 2016 election period (Mueller investigation)
- Past coordination with Kushner on ventilator deliveries raised Treasury Department sanctions concerns
Reactions
Ukrainian Response:
- President Zelenskyy vowed not to betray Ukraine’s interests
- Defense Minister Rustem Umerov described his role as “technical”
- Received plan via Turkey before direct presentation in Kyiv
U.S. Congressional Response:
- Senator Roger Wicker (R-MS, Chairman of Senate Armed Services Committee): Called the plan problematic and expressed high skepticism about achieving peace
- Criticized forcing Ukraine to give up lands to “one of the world’s most flagrant war criminals”
Expert Analysis:
- Plan heavily tilted toward Russian interests
- Putin called it a “basis” for future agreement, suggesting more demands coming
- One-week timeline for resolution deemed “ambitious”
International Implications:
- Confusion at embassies in Washington and European capitals
- Runs counter to Trump administration’s recent tougher stance on Russia
- Contradicts recent sanctions on Russian energy sector
Outlook: Possible Scenarios
Scenario 1: Plan Rejection (40% Probability)
Development: Ukraine rejects the plan with Western allies’ support. Congressional opposition in the U.S. strengthens Ukrainian position.
Implications:
- War continues with current dynamics
- U.S. military assistance to Ukraine continues but potentially reduced
- Growing divide within Trump administration on Russia policy
- Continued economic pressure on Russia through sanctions
Timeline: Near-term (1-3 months)
Scenario 2: Modified Agreement (35% Probability)
Development: Negotiations continue with substantial revisions. Plan becomes more balanced after international pressure and Ukrainian resistance.
Implications:
- Temporary ceasefire achieved
- Territory disputes remain frozen
- Security guarantees for Ukraine strengthened
- Economic reconstruction begins with international funding
- Russia maintains some territorial gains
Timeline: Medium-term (3-12 months)
Scenario 3: Forced Ukrainian Compliance (15% Probability)
Development: U.S. leverages military assistance to pressure Ukraine into accepting unfavorable terms.
Implications:
- Ukraine loses significant territory and NATO pathway
- Major precedent set for territorial revision through force
- Profound implications for international law and small states
- Potential for renewed conflict within years
- Western alliance fractures
Timeline: Medium-term (3-6 months)
Risk Factor: Extremely destabilizing for global order
Scenario 4: Plan Collapse and Escalation (10% Probability)
Development: Plan fails completely, leading to renewed Russian offensive or Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Implications:
- Intensified military operations
- Increased humanitarian crisis
- Greater economic disruption globally
- Risk of direct NATO-Russia confrontation
Timeline: Near-term (1-2 months)
Singapore Impact Analysis
1. Foreign Policy and Strategic Positioning
Immediate Challenges:
Singapore’s principled stance on Ukraine has been consistent and clear since February 2022, when it broke with its traditional policy by imposing unilateral sanctions on Russia—only the second time in history it has done so without UN Security Council authorization. This decision was rooted in existential concerns about sovereignty and territorial integrity for small states.
Policy Dilemmas:
If the Trump-brokered plan succeeds despite violating principles Singapore has championed:
- Credibility Question: Singapore’s strong stance on international law may appear ineffective
- Precedent Concern: A “might makes right” outcome validates territorial revision through force
- Regional Implications: Could embolden larger powers in Southeast Asia regarding territorial disputes
- Balancing Act Complexity: Managing relations with U.S. (security partner), China (major economic partner), and Russia becomes more delicate
Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan’s 2022 statement remains relevant: “Ukraine is much smaller than Russia, but it is much bigger than Singapore. A world order based on ‘might is right’…would be profoundly inimical to the security and survival of small states.”
2. Economic Impact
Current Exposure:
Singapore’s direct economic links to Russia and Ukraine are limited:
- Russia imports: $1.32 billion (2022), primarily refined petroleum ($1.09B)
- Two-way trade with Russia: Less than 2% of total bilateral trade
- Limited Singapore business presence in Ukraine
- Approximately 450 Ukrainians residing in Singapore
Primary Economic Channels:
Energy Costs:
- Singapore imports most energy needs, primarily natural gas for power generation
- Oil and gas price volatility directly impacts electricity tariffs
- Households experienced 5%+ electricity tariff increases in 2022
- Transportation costs affected (taxi fare increases)
Supply Chain Disruptions:
- Russia and Ukraine account for 25%+ of global wheat production
- Major exporters of barley, maize, sunflower seeds
- Key suppliers of metals (nickel, palladium)
- Fertilizer price impacts
Inflation Pressures:
- Food staple prices (wheat, corn) significantly affected
- Energy costs embedded in manufacturing and services
- Metal shortages driving up costs for derived products
3. Peace Plan Outcome Scenarios for Singapore
Scenario A: Quick Russian-Favorable Settlement
Economic Impact:
- Positive (Short-term):
- Energy prices stabilize or decrease
- Supply chain pressures ease
- Reduced global economic uncertainty
- Business confidence improves
- Negative (Long-term):
- Precedent undermines rule-based trading system
- Increased geopolitical risk premium in business planning
- Potential for similar conflicts elsewhere
- Western sanctions on Russia may persist, limiting opportunities
Strategic Impact:
- Questions about U.S. reliability as security partner
- Need to reassess assumptions about international order
- Increased defense spending may be necessary
- ASEAN unity may be tested
Scenario B: Prolonged Negotiation/Frozen Conflict
Economic Impact:
- Continued elevated energy prices
- Persistent supply chain challenges
- Sustained inflation pressures
- Business planning uncertainty continues
Strategic Impact:
- Extended period of great power tension
- Singapore’s balancing act continues
- Opportunities for diplomatic mediation
- Gradual adaptation to new normal
Scenario C: Escalation
Economic Impact:
- Severe energy price spikes
- Major supply chain disruptions
- Potential recession risks
- Flight to safety in financial markets (potential Singapore benefit as stable hub)
- Increased business costs across all sectors
Strategic Impact:
- Enhanced defense readiness required
- Closer scrutiny of Singapore’s sanctions compliance
- Potential pressure to choose sides more explicitly
- Regional security environment deteriorates
4. Sector-Specific Impacts
Financial Services:
- Sanctions compliance costs increase
- Enhanced due diligence on Russia-linked transactions
- Risk of being used as sanctions evasion hub (requires vigilance)
- Potential opportunities in reconstruction financing (if peace achieved)
Maritime and Logistics:
- Rerouting of global trade flows
- Fuel cost volatility affects shipping economics
- Potential for increased Russian commodity flows through alternative routes
- Enhanced sanctions screening requirements
Manufacturing:
- Input cost pressures from commodities
- Supply chain resilience investments required
- Potential for nearshoring/friendshoring benefits
- Technology export controls considerations
Food Security:
- Singapore imports 90%+ of food supply
- Vulnerable to global price shocks
- Accelerated efforts for supply diversification needed
- Investment in food technology and alternative sources
5. Policy Recommendations for Singapore
Foreign Policy:
- Maintain Principled Stance: Continue articulating position based on international law regardless of outcome, as credibility with small states matters
- Enhance ASEAN Coordination: Work with regional partners to develop common position on territorial integrity principles
- Strategic Communication: Clearly explain Singapore’s position to both Western and Asian partners, emphasizing consistency and principle-based approach
- Quiet Diplomacy: Maintain channels with all parties while avoiding public posturing
Economic Policy:
- Energy Diversification: Accelerate renewable energy adoption and alternative energy source development
- Supply Chain Resilience: Continue investments in supply chain diversification and local capabilities
- Trade Agreement Strategy: Pursue additional free trade agreements to reduce dependence on any single route or partner
- Strategic Reserves: Enhance stockpiling of critical commodities and materials
- Sanctions Compliance: Strengthen financial sector oversight to prevent sanctions evasion through Singapore
Defense and Security:
- Defense Readiness: Maintain strong SAF capabilities and National Service commitment
- Intelligence Cooperation: Deepen partnerships with trusted allies for early warning
- Cybersecurity: Enhanced protection against state-sponsored cyber threats
- Regional Cooperation: Strengthen five-power defense arrangements and bilateral exercises
6. Long-term Strategic Considerations
The “Singapore Paradox”:
Singapore faces a unique challenge: it needs a U.S. security presence in Asia-Pacific but also depends on economic integration with China and maintaining cordial relations globally. The Ukraine situation exposes tensions in this balancing act.
Key Questions:
- Can small states rely on international law and multilateral institutions for protection?
- What security guarantees are meaningful in practice?
- How should Singapore adapt if the international order becomes more transactional and power-based?
Historical Context:
Singapore’s “siege mentality” stems from:
- 1965 expulsion from Malaysia
- Constant threat from larger neighbors
- Success as a “little red dot in a sea of green”
- Deep commitment to meritocracy and self-reliance
The Ukraine crisis validates Singapore’s historical investment in defense capabilities and National Service system. As Foreign Minister Balakrishnan stated in 2022: “You cannot depend on others to protect your country.”
Conclusion
The Trump-Dmitriev peace plan represents more than just a potential end to the Ukraine war—it’s a test case for the post-Cold War international order. For Singapore, the implications extend beyond immediate economic impacts to fundamental questions about sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the viability of international law for small states.
Key Takeaways for Singapore:
- Principle vs. Pragmatism: Singapore must balance its principled stance with pragmatic adaptation to changing realities
- Economic Resilience: Diversification and supply chain resilience are more critical than ever
- Self-Reliance: The situation reinforces the importance of strong self-defense capabilities
- Strategic Hedging: Maintaining relationships with all major powers while preserving strategic autonomy
- Long-term Planning: Prepare for a more multipolar, potentially more unstable world order
The outcome of this peace plan will significantly influence Singapore’s strategic environment for years to come. Regardless of the specific result, Singapore’s response should be grounded in its core principle: neutrality is not indifference, but rather calculated pragmatism in service of survival and prosperity.
Assessment Date: November 22, 2025 Next Review: Following significant developments in Ukraine negotiations