Executive Summary
The ongoing efforts to broker a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict reveal fundamental challenges in achieving negotiated peace when parties demonstrate misaligned incentives. French President Macron’s November 2025 assessment that Russia shows no genuine willingness for peace, despite public claims otherwise, highlights the gap between diplomatic rhetoric and ground realities.
Macron stated there is clearly no Russian willingness to agree to a ceasefire, calling for continued pressure on Moscow to negotiate. This came after a virtual meeting with the Coalition of the Willing, which includes 30 countries supporting Ukraine.
Context
The comments follow fresh attempts to broker an end to the nearly four-year war after the US put forward a 28-point plan that was criticized for echoing Russia’s demands. Ukraine and European allies have been working to amend this plan.
Evidence Cited
Macron pointed out that while Russia pretended to be ready for peace, recent hours saw new strikes against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, particularly energy targets. He emphasized this contradicts any claim of peaceful intentions.
Positions Discussed
- Macron called for a strong Ukrainian army without limitation as part of post-war security guarantees, contrary to what was outlined in the initial US plan draft
- He stated that frozen Russian assets are extremely important and serve as a means of pressure on Russia
The French president indicated support for US diplomatic efforts while questioning whether Russia has genuine willingness to pursue peace.
Case Study: The Impasse of November 2025
Background
The conflict, now in its fourth year since Russia’s 2022 invasion, has reached a critical juncture. The United States proposed a 28-point peace plan that drew criticism for allegedly echoing Russian demands, prompting Ukraine and European allies to push for amendments during Geneva talks.
Key Events
Coalition Response: The Coalition of the Willing, comprising 30 nations supporting Ukraine, convened virtually on November 25, 2025, with participation from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Contradictory Signals: While Russia publicly expressed readiness for peace negotiations, it simultaneously launched strikes against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and energy facilities, undermining its diplomatic messaging.
Diplomatic Deadlock: Russia showed no willingness to discuss the amended US plan resulting from Geneva weekend talks, according to reports from coalition members who had direct exchanges with Moscow.
Critical Issues Identified
- Military Capacity Restrictions: Initial US plan drafts proposed limitations on Ukrainian military capabilities, which European allies and Ukraine strongly opposed
- Security Guarantees: Disagreement over post-war security arrangements, with proposals for a multinational deterrent force
- Frozen Assets: Approximately $300+ billion in frozen Russian assets represent both a funding source for Ukraine and leverage against Russia
- Territorial Integrity: Fundamental disputes over occupied territories and sovereignty
Current Outlook
Short-Term Forecast (3-6 Months)
Continued Military Operations: Given Russia’s actions contradicting peace rhetoric, expect sustained military engagement with periodic intensification, particularly targeting Ukrainian infrastructure during winter months.
Diplomatic Stalemate: Negotiations likely to remain deadlocked as Russia perceives limited incentive to compromise while maintaining territorial gains and domestic political control over the conflict narrative.
Coalition Solidarity Testing: European unity may face strain from economic pressures, energy costs, and domestic political shifts, though recent statements suggest commitment remains firm.
Medium-Term Outlook (6-18 Months)
Attrition Dynamics: The conflict may evolve into a prolonged war of attrition, with both sides seeking to improve negotiating positions through military means rather than through diplomatic concessions.
Political Transitions: Changes in leadership or political priorities in key nations (US, European powers, Russia) could create windows for renewed diplomatic efforts or alternatively, policy shifts.
Economic Pressure Points: Sustained sanctions and frozen assets will continue affecting Russian economy, while Ukraine faces reconstruction needs potentially exceeding $400 billion.
Long-Term Considerations (18+ Months)
Frozen Conflict Scenario: Without breakthrough negotiations, the situation may solidify into a frozen conflict similar to other post-Soviet disputes, with ongoing low-intensity hostilities and unresolved territorial status.
Generational Impact: Prolonged conflict will have lasting effects on demographics, infrastructure, economic development, and regional security architecture in Eastern Europe.
Proposed Solutions Framework
Track 1: Diplomatic Pathway
Immediate Actions
Clarify Red Lines: All parties must explicitly state non-negotiable positions to identify genuine zones of possible compromise versus performative diplomacy.
Revised Negotiation Format: Consider alternative mediation structures beyond current US-led efforts, potentially involving neutral parties or regional organizations with credibility among all stakeholders.
Incremental Agreements: Rather than comprehensive peace plans, pursue smaller confidence-building measures such as localized ceasefires, humanitarian corridors, or prisoner exchanges to build negotiation momentum.
Medium-Term Diplomatic Initiatives
Security Architecture Redesign: Develop concrete proposals for post-conflict security guarantees that address Russian concerns about NATO expansion while ensuring Ukrainian sovereignty and self-determination.
International Peacekeeping: Prepare detailed frameworks for multinational peacekeeping or monitoring forces, including composition, mandate, duration, and rules of engagement.
Economic Reconstruction Plan: Link frozen Russian assets to a comprehensive reconstruction framework that creates incentives for negotiated settlement while ensuring accountability.
Track 2: Economic Leverage
Asset Management Strategy
Decisiveness on Frozen Assets: European powers should finalize decisions on utilizing approximately $300 billion in frozen Russian assets, as Macron indicated, to fund Ukrainian defense and reconstruction while maintaining legal frameworks.
Targeted Sanctions Evolution: Refine sanctions to maximize pressure on decision-makers while minimizing humanitarian impact and maintaining coalition unity.
Reconstruction Investment: Develop public-private partnership models for Ukrainian reconstruction that create economic incentives for peace while reducing dependency on continuous aid flows.
Energy and Supply Chain Considerations
Energy Security: Accelerate European energy diversification to eliminate remaining leverage Russia holds through energy exports.
Global South Engagement: Address concerns of neutral nations affected by conflict spillovers (food security, energy costs) to maintain broad international support for Ukraine.
Track 3: Military and Security Dimension
Capability Without Escalation
Unrestricted Ukrainian Defense: As Macron advocated, ensure Ukraine has robust defensive capabilities without artificial limitations, making continued aggression costly for Russia.
Deterrent Credibility: Develop and communicate clear deterrent postures, including potential for multinational force deployments, to raise costs of renewed aggression post-ceasefire.
Arms Production: Support development of Ukrainian defense industrial base and European military production capacity to ensure sustainable long-term defense capabilities.
De-escalation Mechanisms
Communication Channels: Maintain military-to-military communication lines to prevent miscalculation and manage incidents.
No-Strike Agreements: Pursue targeted agreements protecting critical civilian infrastructure, even absent broader ceasefire.
Track 4: Alternative Scenarios Planning
Prepare for Multiple Outcomes
Frozen Conflict Management: Develop frameworks for managing long-term frozen conflict, including sustained support structures, security arrangements, and economic integration paths for Ukraine.
Breakthrough Scenario: Maintain readiness to rapidly operationalize peace agreements if political windows open, with pre-negotiated frameworks for peacekeeping, reconstruction, and security guarantees.
Escalation Prevention: Establish protocols and red lines to prevent conflict expansion while maintaining defensive support for Ukraine.
Implementation Recommendations
For Coalition Members
- Unified Messaging: Coordinate communication strategies to present consistent positions on negotiation preconditions and acceptable outcomes
- Burden Sharing: Establish equitable frameworks for distributing costs of sustained support, reconstruction, and potential peacekeeping operations
- Contingency Planning: Prepare for various scenarios including prolonged conflict, sudden diplomatic breakthroughs, or regional escalation
For Ukraine
- Negotiate from Strength: Continue building defensive capabilities while remaining open to genuine peace negotiations
- Domestic Preparation: Prepare Ukrainian society for difficult negotiations while maintaining resolve and unity
- International Partnerships: Deepen integration with European and transatlantic institutions regardless of conflict outcome
For International Community
- Accountability Mechanisms: Maintain documentation of violations and establish frameworks for eventual accountability and justice
- Humanitarian Focus: Ensure continued humanitarian access and protection of civilians regardless of military and diplomatic developments
- Principled Flexibility: Maintain core principles (sovereignty, territorial integrity) while showing flexibility on implementation mechanisms
Conclusion
The November 2025 diplomatic situation reveals a fundamental challenge: negotiations cannot succeed when one party demonstrates through actions that it lacks genuine interest in peace. The contradiction between Russia’s diplomatic rhetoric and continued strikes against civilian infrastructure suggests negotiations remain premature without significant shifts in incentives.
Effective solutions must therefore focus on changing the calculus through sustained pressure, economic leverage, and military support that makes continued aggression unsustainable, while maintaining diplomatic channels for when conditions ripen for genuine negotiation. The frozen assets decision, robust Ukrainian defense capabilities without limitations, and coalition unity represent critical leverage points.
Success requires patience, sustained commitment, and recognition that premature peace agreements lacking enforcement mechanisms may simply freeze injustice rather than resolve it. The international community must prepare for multiple scenarios while working to create conditions where negotiated, just, and sustainable peace becomes possible.