Key Points from the Article
PM Lawrence Wong addressed Singapore’s approach to global cooperation following the G-20 summit in South Africa, which was notably marked by President Trump’s absence. While emphasizing that countries should find ways to collaborate independently, Wong stated that Singapore still prefers active US involvement in shaping global affairs, noting that America remains “the biggest pole” in an increasingly multi-polar world.
Main takeaways:
- Summit outcome: Despite tensions, PM Wong deemed the G-20 summit a “tremendous success,” with all present countries adopting a declaration showing consensus on the way forward.
- New diplomatic ties: Singapore announced plans to open an embassy in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, and signed agreements on skills development and carbon credits.
- Regional engagement: The visit represents Wong’s first bilateral trip to Africa as PM, focusing on strengthening links between Singapore and the African continent.
Singapore’s Trade Strategy
PM Wong outlined a pragmatic, multi-track approach to trade in light of current challenges:
Primary Strategy – “Flexible Multilateralism”: Wong acknowledged that the WTO needs reform as it was “optimised around trade efficiency and not the strategic realities of the current times.” He advocated for working through plurilateral and minilateral initiatives—smaller groupings of countries—as a parallel effort while continuing to push for WTO reform.
Specific Initiatives: Wong cited the Future of Investment and Trade Partnership (FIT-P), which Singapore initiated with like-minded countries to support fair and open trade, along with regional groupings like the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership and the European Union.
The vision is that if these smaller partnerships succeed, they can provide a basis for other countries to join and eventually extend rules across the board as part of WTO precepts.
Singapore’s Africa Strategy
Market Opportunity: PM Wong highlighted Africa’s “tremendous potential,” pointing to population growth with more than 1.5 billion people currently on the continent while many other regions are not growing. This represents a sizeable market providing longer-term opportunities for Singapore businesses operating in a more challenging global environment.
Regional Approach: Wong emphasized that cooperation with Ethiopia isn’t just bilateral, noting potential in “bringing our two regions closer together, whether it is East Africa, or, for that matter, the entire African continent together with South-east Asia.”
Practical Impact: The relationship aims to expand opportunities for Singapore companies needing to look beyond familiar markets to grow.
Implications of US Absence from the Summit
Immediate Impact: Trump boycotted the summit over widely discredited claims about South Africa persecuting its Afrikaner white minority, and the historic first-time African summit was “at times overshadowed by his absence.”
Singapore’s Balanced Position: PM Wong struck a nuanced tone—acknowledging American leadership as “vital in providing that global framework for the world” while simultaneously urging countries to move forward independently. He noted the US can join “at any time” when ready.
Practical Challenges: Wong acknowledged that refreshing the WTO “will be even more difficult without the US involved,” but insisted other countries should persist through alternative channels.
Broader Significance: The absence highlights a potential shift in global cooperation—countries are increasingly preparing to work around American participation rather than waiting for it. However, Singapore’s position makes clear this is a pragmatic adaptation rather than a desired outcome, with US engagement remaining the preference for effective global governance.
The summit ultimately demonstrated that multilateral progress is possible even without the world’s largest economy at the table, though the question of long-term sustainability without US participation remains open.
Navigating Global Cooperation in an Era of US Disengagement
Executive Summary
The 2025 G-20 Summit in South Africa marked a critical inflection point in global governance, with the United States—traditionally the anchor of multilateral cooperation—absent from proceedings. Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong’s response to this situation offers a compelling case study in how small, trade-dependent nations can adapt to shifting geopolitical realities while maintaining strategic flexibility.
Background Context
The Situation
Event: G-20 Summit, Johannesburg, South Africa (November 2025)
- First G-20 summit held on African soil
- US President Donald Trump boycotted the summit
- 19 other member nations plus the African Union participated
- US scheduled to chair G-20 in 2026
Key Stakeholders
- Singapore: Small, trade-dependent city-state seeking to preserve global economic order
- United States: World’s largest economy, traditionally the guarantor of global frameworks
- G-20 Members: Mix of developed and emerging economies seeking consensus on global challenges
- African Nations: Host continent seeking greater integration into global economy
- Multilateral Institutions: WTO, regional trade partnerships facing legitimacy challenges
The Challenge
Singapore faces a fundamental strategic dilemma: how to maintain an open, rules-based global trading system when the primary architect and enforcer of that system is increasingly absent or disengaged. This challenge is compounded by:
- Rising protectionism and economic nationalism globally
- An outdated WTO optimized for efficiency rather than strategic realities
- Growing multi-polarity with competing visions for global governance
- Need to access new markets (Africa) amid global economic fragmentation
Analysis of Singapore’s Response
Strategic Framework: “Flexible Multilateralism”
PM Wong’s approach represents a sophisticated hedging strategy with three key pillars:
1. Maintain the Preference for US Engagement
Rationale: Despite current disengagement, the US remains the world’s largest economy and most powerful nation. Completely writing off American leadership would be strategically premature and potentially alienating.
Implementation:
- Public statements acknowledging US importance
- Leaving “the door open” for US re-engagement “at any time”
- Avoiding rhetoric that burns bridges or forces binary choices
Risk Management: This positions Singapore to benefit if/when US policy shifts, while not appearing to oppose American interests.
2. Build Alternative Pathways Through Smaller Groupings
Rationale: If traditional multilateralism is stalled, plurilateral and minilateral arrangements can maintain momentum and create facts on the ground.
Implementation:
- Future of Investment and Trade Partnership (FIT-P)
- Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)
- Regional partnerships (ASEAN, EU cooperation)
Strategic Logic: These smaller groupings can:
- Develop new rules and frameworks among like-minded countries
- Create templates that others can eventually join
- Maintain trade liberalization even if WTO reform stalls
- Provide redundancy if one platform fails
3. Expand into Frontier Markets
Rationale: In a fragmenting global economy, diversification of economic partnerships reduces vulnerability and opens new growth opportunities.
Implementation:
- First bilateral visit to Ethiopia as PM
- Opening embassy in Addis Ababa
- Agreements on skills development and carbon credits
- Vision for linking Southeast Asia and Africa
Strategic Value: Africa’s 1.5+ billion population and growth trajectory offer:
- Long-term market access for Singapore firms
- Diplomatic partnerships in a multi-polar world
- Economic hedging against slowdowns in traditional markets
Outlook: Scenarios and Projections
Scenario 1: Continued US Disengagement (40% probability)
Characteristics:
- US maintains “America First” policies through 2029 and potentially beyond
- Selective engagement in multilateral forums only when directly beneficial
- Continued pressure on allies to choose sides in US-China competition
- Reduced US leadership in WTO reform and global standard-setting
Implications for Singapore:
- Trade: Must rely heavily on alternative frameworks (CPTPP, FIT-P, bilateral FTAs)
- Security: Balance between US security umbrella and economic pragmatism with China
- Diplomacy: Increased value as neutral broker and meeting ground
- Economy: Success depends on alternative partnerships delivering growth
Indicators to Watch:
- US participation in 2026 G-20 (as chair)
- Trade policy consistency through 2026-2028
- Appointments to key multilateral institutions
Scenario 2: Partial US Re-engagement (35% probability)
Characteristics:
- US returns to selective multilateral engagement after 2028 or mid-term corrections
- Participates in some forums while avoiding others
- Attempts to reform institutions to reflect US priorities
- Maintains pressure on China while seeking allies
Implications for Singapore:
- Trade: Hybrid system with both US-led and alternative frameworks
- Strategic: Complex navigation between competing systems
- Opportunities: Bridge-building role between US and other nations
- Risks: Pressure to choose sides in specific issue areas
Indicators to Watch:
- 2028 US election results and policy shifts
- Congressional changes affecting trade policy
- US proposals for WTO reform
- Bilateral engagement with key allies
Scenario 3: Full Multilateral Fragmentation (25% probability)
Characteristics:
- Not just US but multiple major powers pursue nationalist agendas
- WTO becomes largely ineffective
- World splits into competing trading blocs
- Increased economic coercion and weaponization of trade
Implications for Singapore:
- Existential threat: Trade-dependent city-state struggles in fragmented world
- Strategic: Must pick sides or become isolated
- Economic: Significant GDP impact from reduced trade flows
- Diplomatic: Value as neutral party declines
Indicators to Watch:
- EU-China trade relations deterioration
- Major economies leaving WTO or ignoring rulings
- Formation of exclusive, opposed trading blocs
- Breakdown of ASEAN unity
Solutions and Recommendations
For Singapore: Multi-Track Strategy
Immediate Actions (2025-2026)
- Accelerate Alternative Partnerships
- Fast-track implementation of FIT-P initiatives
- Deepen CPTPP engagement and expand membership
- Formalize Africa-ASEAN cooperation frameworks
- Launch at least 3 new bilateral FTA negotiations with African nations
- Invest in Strategic Infrastructure
- Complete Addis Ababa embassy by Q2 2026
- Establish commercial presence in 5 key African markets
- Create Africa desk within Enterprise Singapore for business facilitation
- Develop training programs for Singapore firms entering African markets
- Strengthen Diplomatic Positioning
- Position Singapore as neutral meeting ground for divided parties
- Host conferences on WTO reform, climate finance, digital trade
- Leverage ASEAN chairmanship opportunities
- Build coalitions of small/medium economies with shared interests
Medium-term Strategy (2026-2030)
- Economic Diversification
- Target: Increase Africa trade from <1% to 5% of total trade by 2030
- Develop niche expertise in Africa-relevant sectors (agritech, fintech, infrastructure)
- Create Singapore-Africa investment fund
- Establish educational partnerships (skills training, university collaborations)
- Institutional Innovation
- Lead development of “WTO 2.0” concepts through FIT-P and similar platforms
- Pioneer rules for digital trade, green trade, services liberalization
- Create demonstration effects that can scale globally
- Build coalitions around specific issues (e-commerce, carbon pricing)
- Risk Mitigation
- Maintain constructive relations with both US and China
- Develop economic ties with India, EU, Japan as alternative anchors
- Build resilience through supply chain diversification
- Invest in domestic capabilities (technology, finance, logistics)
Long-term Vision (2030+)
- Regional Integration
- Position Southeast Asia-Africa corridor as major trade route
- Develop Singapore as financial and logistics hub for this corridor
- Create institutional frameworks (regular summits, business councils)
- Build people-to-people links through education and culture
- Rule-Making Leadership
- Establish Singapore as thought leader on global economic governance
- Incubate and test new approaches to trade rules
- Create templates that can be adopted globally if/when conditions change
- Build reputation as honest broker and solutions provider
For Other Small/Medium States
Collective Action
- Form Coalition of Like-Minded Countries
- Regular ministerial meetings on trade policy coordination
- Shared resources for WTO reform proposals
- Joint approach to major economic powers
- Pooled technical expertise on complex negotiations
- Leverage Regional Organizations
- Use ASEAN, African Union, Pacific Islands Forum as platforms
- Develop inter-regional partnerships
- Create peer learning networks
- Share best practices and negotiate collectively where possible
- Innovate Around Constraints
- Focus on areas where progress is possible (digital, services, climate)
- Use bilateral/plurilateral tracks creatively
- Build demonstration effects through successful smaller deals
- Create competitive pressure for larger powers to engage
Capacity Building
- Technical Expertise: Invest in trade negotiation capabilities
- Economic Intelligence: Develop sophisticated analysis of global trends
- Diplomatic Skills: Train diplomats in coalition-building and mediation
- Business Support: Help domestic firms navigate complex global environment
For the International Community
Institutional Reform
- WTO Modernization
- Update rules for digital economy, services, climate-related trade
- Reform dispute settlement to restore functionality
- Create flexible mechanisms allowing willing countries to move faster
- Increase developing country voice in decision-making
- Regional Architecture
- Strengthen regional development banks (AfDB, ADB)
- Create better linkages between regional trade agreements
- Develop compatibility standards to reduce fragmentation
- Support South-South cooperation initiatives
Preserving Core Principles
- Rules-Based Order
- Defend core WTO principles even if implementation is imperfect
- Document violations and maintain pressure for compliance
- Use peer pressure and reputational costs
- Preserve institutional memory for when conditions improve
- Development Focus
- Ensure developing countries aren’t casualties of great power competition
- Maintain special and differential treatment provisions
- Increase capacity-building assistance
- Create opportunities for least developed countries to integrate
Critical Success Factors
For Singapore’s Strategy to Succeed:
- Political Consistency: Maintain strategic course across election cycles
- Economic Performance: Deliver tangible benefits to businesses and citizens
- Diplomatic Agility: Navigate between competing powers without alienating any
- Implementation Capacity: Execute complex multi-track strategy effectively
- Timing: Move quickly while opportunities exist before further fragmentation
Key Risks to Monitor:
- US-China Cold War: Singapore forced to choose sides
- ASEAN Fragmentation: Loss of regional platform and unity
- Global Recession: Reduced trade flows undermine strategy
- African Political Instability: Investments fail to yield returns
- Domestic Resistance: Singapore businesses reluctant to enter unfamiliar markets
Conclusion
PM Wong’s approach to the G-20 summit and global cooperation represents a masterclass in small-state strategy under conditions of great power uncertainty. By maintaining preference for US engagement while building alternative pathways and expanding into frontier markets, Singapore is maximizing optionality in an unpredictable environment.
The success of this approach will depend on execution, timing, and factors beyond Singapore’s control. However, the framework itself—flexible multilateralism backed by concrete alternative partnerships—offers a template for how trade-dependent nations can navigate the turbulent transition from US-led globalization to an uncertain multi-polar future.
Key Insight: The goal is not to replace US leadership but to ensure that global cooperation can continue with or without American participation, while remaining ready to re-integrate the US whenever it chooses to re-engage. This requires patience, pragmatism, and the ability to hold contradictory positions simultaneously—precisely the kind of strategic ambiguity at which Singapore has historically excelled.
The real test will come in 2026 when the US is scheduled to chair the G-20. How that unfolds will signal whether this is a temporary period of American disengagement or a fundamental restructuring of the global order.