Japan-China Military Escalation

by | Dec 8, 2025 | Uncategorized | 0 comments

Executive Summary

The December 6, 2025 radar-lock incident between Japanese and Chinese military aircraft marks a dangerous new phase in East Asian security tensions. This case study examines the escalation dynamics, potential trajectories, and implications for regional stability, with particular focus on Singapore’s strategic position.

Background and Context

Historical Tensions

Sino-Japanese relations have been strained by several longstanding issues:

  • Territorial disputes over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands
  • Contested maritime zones in the East China Sea
  • Historical grievances dating to World War II
  • Competition for regional influence and leadership
  • Differing visions for the regional security order

Recent Developments

The current crisis stems from two interconnected events:

November 2025: Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that a Chinese military attack on Taiwan could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, implying potential Japanese military involvement alongside the United States.

December 6, 2025: Chinese J-15 fighters from the carrier Liaoning locked fire-control radar on Japanese F-15 aircraft twice during naval exercises near Okinawa, marking the first such incident between the two nations.

The December 6 Incident: A Detailed Analysis

What Happened

Chinese carrier-based fighters activated targeting radar against Japanese Air Self-Defense Force aircraft conducting surveillance operations. The radar locks occurred at 4:32 PM and 6:37 PM local time, with the second lock lasting approximately 30 minutes. During the two-day period, Chinese forces conducted about 100 training take-offs and landings from the Liaoning.

Competing Narratives

Japanese Position: Tokyo maintains that its aircraft kept a safe distance during routine monitoring operations. Japan characterizes the radar locks as dangerous acts that exceeded necessary safety measures and constitute a hostile provocation.

Chinese Position: Beijing claims Japanese aircraft intruded into designated training areas without authorization, conducting close reconnaissance that endangered flight safety. China defends the radar activation as normal operational procedure during carrier aviation training.

Significance of Radar Locks

Fire-control radar locks are among the most serious actions a military aircraft can take short of actual weapon discharge. They indicate:

  • Target acquisition and tracking
  • Preparation to fire weapons
  • A direct threat to the targeted aircraft
  • Potential for misunderstanding or miscalculation
  • Crossing traditional redlines in military encounters

Escalation Dynamics

Immediate Triggers

  1. Taiwan Issue: Takaichi’s November comments directly challenged China’s core interest in preventing Taiwan independence and deterring foreign intervention
  2. Domestic Politics: Both countries face internal pressures to demonstrate strength
  3. Military Modernization: China’s expanding blue-water navy capabilities enable more assertive operations
  4. Alliance Dynamics: Japan’s deepening security partnership with the United States creates perceived threats to China

Escalation Mechanisms

The incident demonstrates several dangerous escalation pathways:

Action-Reaction Spiral: Japanese surveillance flights prompt Chinese countermeasures, which lead to increased Japanese monitoring, creating a self-reinforcing cycle.

Threshold Creeping: Each incident without consequences establishes new baselines for acceptable behavior, gradually normalizing more aggressive actions.

Miscalculation Risk: Close military encounters increase the probability of accidents, technical failures, or misinterpreted intentions that could spark unintended conflict.

Domestic Audience Costs: Public statements and nationalist rhetoric make backing down politically costly for both governments.

Outlook and Scenarios

Scenario 1: Managed Tension (40% probability)

Both countries maintain their positions while working through diplomatic channels to prevent further incidents. Military encounters continue but remain below the threshold of kinetic conflict.

Indicators:

  • Establishment of military-to-military communication protocols
  • Private diplomatic negotiations despite public rhetoric
  • No additional radar-lock incidents
  • Gradual reduction in operational tempo near disputed areas

Implications: Persistent but contained regional tensions, with periodic flare-ups during sensitive political moments.

Scenario 2: Continued Escalation (35% probability)

The action-reaction spiral intensifies with more frequent dangerous encounters, weapon system activations, and increasingly aggressive maneuvers.

Indicators:

  • Additional radar-lock or weapon-aiming incidents
  • Physical interference with aircraft or vessels
  • Expansion of Chinese operations closer to Japanese territory
  • Mobilization of additional military assets by both sides
  • Breakdown of diplomatic communication channels

Implications: Heightened risk of accidental conflict, economic disruption, and pressure on regional countries to choose sides.

Scenario 3: Crisis De-escalation (20% probability)

Leadership intervention or third-party mediation leads to mutual de-escalation measures and crisis management mechanisms.

Indicators:

  • High-level diplomatic engagement
  • Joint statement on preventing dangerous military encounters
  • Implementation of incident prevention protocols
  • Reduction in military activities in contested areas

Implications: Temporary stabilization with unresolved underlying tensions that could resurface.

Scenario 4: Kinetic Conflict (5% probability)

An accident, miscalculation, or deliberate provocation triggers an exchange of fire, potentially escalating to broader military engagement.

Indicators:

  • Weapon discharge during a military encounter
  • Casualties from collision or hostile action
  • Mobilization of forces for combat operations
  • Alliance activation and third-party involvement

Implications: Catastrophic humanitarian, economic, and political consequences for the region and globally.

Proposed Solutions and De-escalation Measures

Short-Term Confidence Building

Immediate Communication: Establish or reactivate military hotlines to prevent misunderstanding during encounters. Both countries should commit to real-time communication during operations in contested areas.

Incident Prevention Agreement: Negotiate protocols similar to the US-Soviet “Incidents at Sea” agreement, establishing rules for safe distances, communication procedures, and prohibited actions during military encounters.

Third-Party Facilitation: ASEAN, Australia, or other regional partners could offer informal mediation channels to facilitate dialogue without requiring either side to be seen as backing down.

Medium-Term Structural Measures

Military Transparency: Exchange information on exercise schedules, operational areas, and force deployments to reduce surprise and miscalculation.

Crisis Management Mechanisms: Develop formal procedures for managing escalation, including step-by-step de-escalation protocols and face-saving exit ramps.

Track Two Diplomacy: Support academic, business, and civil society exchanges to maintain communication channels when official relations are strained.

Joint Maritime Initiatives: Explore cooperation on non-traditional security issues such as search and rescue, disaster relief, and environmental protection to build working relationships.

Long-Term Strategic Solutions

Taiwan Question: While full resolution is unlikely, creative approaches to maintaining the status quo while reducing tensions could include:

  • Renewed commitment to dialogue mechanisms
  • Economic integration that raises the cost of conflict
  • International guarantees of peaceful resolution processes

Regional Security Architecture: Develop inclusive regional security forums that give China a stake in the existing order while addressing legitimate security concerns of all parties.

Economic Interdependence: Strengthen trade and investment ties to increase the costs of conflict, though recognizing this has limitations given current economic decoupling trends.

Multilateral Engagement: Use regional organizations like ASEAN, APEC, and the East Asia Summit to create venues for dialogue and conflict management.

Impact on Singapore

Strategic Considerations

Singapore faces unique challenges given its position:

Geographic Position: Located at the crossroads of major sea lanes, Singapore would be directly affected by any disruption to regional stability or freedom of navigation.

Economic Exposure: As a trade-dependent economy, Singapore is vulnerable to:

  • Supply chain disruptions affecting 22% of global container traffic passing through regional waters
  • Financial market instability from regional conflict
  • Disruption of Singapore’s role as regional logistics and business hub
  • Impact on aviation and maritime industries

Security Relationships: Singapore maintains defense relationships with both the United States and China while pursuing an independent foreign policy, creating delicate balancing requirements.

ASEAN Centrality: Singapore has invested heavily in ASEAN’s role as a platform for regional dialogue and conflict management, which would be tested by major power confrontation.

Specific Vulnerabilities

Maritime Security: Any conflict affecting the South China Sea or Taiwan Strait would directly impact Singapore’s port operations and energy security, with 80% of Singapore’s oil supplies transiting these waters.

Aviation Hub: Singapore Changi Airport and regional flight routes could face disruptions from expanded military operations or airspace restrictions.

Financial Services: Regional instability would affect Singapore’s role as a financial center, with potential capital flight, market volatility, and reduced investment flows.

Technology and Supply Chains: Singapore’s position in global semiconductor and technology supply chains exposes it to disruptions from Taiwan contingencies or regional conflict.

Singapore’s Response Options

Diplomatic Engagement: Singapore should continue advocating for ASEAN centrality, multilateral dialogue mechanisms, and peaceful dispute resolution while maintaining relationships with all parties.

Defense Preparedness: Maintain robust defense capabilities and readiness to ensure Singapore can protect its interests regardless of regional developments.

Economic Diversification: Continue efforts to diversify trade relationships, supply chains, and economic partnerships to reduce vulnerability to any single scenario.

Regional Leadership: Use Singapore’s reputation and diplomatic capital to facilitate dialogue, propose confidence-building measures, and support de-escalation efforts.

Clear Communication: Articulate Singapore’s interests in freedom of navigation, peaceful dispute resolution, and rules-based order without taking sides in bilateral disputes.

Opportunities for Singapore

Mediation Role: As a respected neutral party with relationships across the region, Singapore could facilitate informal dialogue or provide venues for Track Two diplomacy.

ASEAN Coordination: Lead ASEAN efforts to develop collective responses that promote regional stability while respecting diverse national interests.

Economic Continuity: Position Singapore as a stable, predictable environment for business and investment during regional uncertainty.

Norm Setting: Advocate for international law, peaceful resolution mechanisms, and crisis management protocols that serve smaller nations’ interests.

Recommendations

For Japan and China

  1. Prioritize crisis management over winning tactical advantages in military encounters
  2. Establish clear communication channels and use them proactively
  3. Recognize mutual interests in avoiding conflict that would harm both countries
  4. Create face-saving opportunities for de-escalation
  5. Separate military operations from diplomatic rhetoric

For Regional Countries

  1. Support confidence-building measures and offer good offices for mediation
  2. Maintain clear principles on freedom of navigation and peaceful dispute resolution
  3. Avoid actions that could be perceived as taking sides in bilateral disputes
  4. Strengthen regional institutions and multilateral dialogue mechanisms
  5. Coordinate responses through ASEAN when possible

For Singapore Specifically

  1. Enhance scenario planning and crisis response capabilities across government
  2. Engage proactively with both countries to understand perspectives and encourage restraint
  3. Work with ASEAN partners to develop collective positions on regional security
  4. Continue defense modernization while maintaining strategic autonomy
  5. Strengthen economic resilience and diversification efforts
  6. Use Singapore’s upcoming chairmanship of ASEAN (2027) to advance regional security dialogue

Conclusion

The December 2025 radar-lock incident represents a serious escalation in Sino-Japanese tensions with potential consequences extending far beyond the immediate participants. The combination of unresolved territorial disputes, nationalist pressures, military modernization, and alliance dynamics creates multiple pathways for further escalation.

While outright conflict remains unlikely, the risk of accidents, miscalculation, or gradual normalization of dangerous behaviors poses real threats to regional stability. The situation demands sustained diplomatic engagement, crisis management mechanisms, and multilateral efforts to prevent tensions from spiraling out of control.

For Singapore, the challenge lies in maintaining its principled position on international law and peaceful dispute resolution while preserving relationships with all parties and protecting vital national interests. Success requires clear-eyed assessment of risks, proactive diplomacy, robust defense capabilities, and economic resilience.

The coming months will test whether regional countries can collectively manage major power tensions while preserving the stability that has enabled decades of prosperity. The stakes could not be higher for Singapore and the broader region.