Executive Summary
The December 2025 standoff between Congress and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over undisclosed military strikes near Venezuela represents a critical test of constitutional checks and balances in military operations. This case study examines the mechanisms of congressional oversight, the implications for military transparency, and potential impacts on regional security dynamics affecting Singapore and Southeast Asia.
Background
Since September 2025, the United States military has conducted at least 22 strikes against vessels in the southern Caribbean and eastern Pacific, resulting in 87 casualties. The Trump administration characterizes these operations as counter-narcoterrorism efforts, though Congress has raised significant concerns about authorization, transparency, and compliance with international law.
The Constitutional Crisis
Core Issues
War Powers Dispute: The US Constitution grants Congress alone the power to declare war, yet the executive branch has conducted sustained military operations without explicit congressional authorization. This echoes historical tensions over presidential war-making authority from Vietnam to Libya.
Transparency Breakdown: The Pentagon’s refusal to provide unedited strike videos and overdue quarterly reports has created an information vacuum, preventing effective congressional oversight of military operations and expenditures.
Rules of Engagement Questions: The September 2 incident, where military forces fired multiple times on a disabled vessel killing survivors rather than attempting rescue, raises fundamental questions about operational protocols and adherence to laws of armed conflict.
Congressional Response Mechanisms
The NDAA Provision Strategy
Congress included a novel enforcement mechanism in the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act:
- Budget Leverage: Withholding 25% of the Defense Secretary’s travel budget until compliance
- Documentation Requirements: Mandating submission of overdue quarterly execute order reports
- Video Evidence: Requiring unedited footage of all Southern Command strikes
This approach represents a relatively modest but targeted pressure tactic, avoiding broader confrontation while establishing accountability mechanisms.
Effectiveness Analysis
Strengths:
- Creates immediate financial pressure without compromising operational budgets
- Establishes precedent for video documentation requirements
- Enjoys bipartisan support, strengthening enforcement credibility
Limitations:
- Travel budget represents small fraction of DOD spending
- Administration could redirect funds or claim executive privilege
- No enforcement mechanism if deadline passes without compliance
Outlook: Three Scenarios
Scenario 1: Negotiated Compliance (60% probability)
Hegseth provides edited versions of videos with classified operational details redacted, accompanied by detailed written reports. Congress accepts this compromise, restoring travel funds while maintaining oversight pressure through other means.
Indicators to watch:
- Classified briefings scheduled for Armed Services Committee members
- DOD statements about “balancing transparency with operational security”
- Quiet negotiations between Pentagon and committee leadership
Scenario 2: Escalating Confrontation (30% probability)
Administration refuses compliance, citing executive privilege and operational security. Congress responds with broader budget restrictions, committee subpoenas, and potential Government Accountability Office investigations. The dispute moves toward judicial resolution.
Indicators to watch:
- White House counsel statements invoking executive authority
- Congressional subpoenas issued
- Appropriations committee threatening defense budget holds
Scenario 3: Military Operations Conclusion (10% probability)
Administration announces conclusion of Venezuela operations, rendering the dispute moot while avoiding accountability. Congress secures agreement on prospective oversight mechanisms for future operations.
Indicators to watch:
- Statements about “mission accomplished” in counter-narcotics efforts
- Naval assets redeployed from Caribbean
- New memoranda of understanding on congressional notification
Systemic Solutions
Short-term Reforms
Enhanced Notification Protocols: Require executive branch to provide Armed Services Committees with detailed briefings within 48 hours of any military strikes resulting in casualties.
Video Documentation Standards: Establish DOD-wide policy requiring preservation and congressional access to operational footage from significant military engagements.
Quarterly Reporting Compliance: Implement automatic budget holds triggered by missed reporting deadlines, removing discretionary enforcement.
Long-term Structural Changes
War Powers Resolution Update: Modernize the 1973 War Powers Resolution to address 21st-century military operations including drone strikes, cyber operations, and counter-terrorism missions that fall below traditional “war” thresholds.
Independent Oversight Body: Create a standing bipartisan commission with security clearances to review classified military operations in real-time, similar to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court model for intelligence activities.
Rules of Engagement Review: Mandate comprehensive review of ROE for counter-narcotics and counter-terrorism operations, with particular focus on survivor rescue obligations and civilian protection protocols.
Singapore and Regional Impact
Direct Strategic Implications
Precedent for Allied Concerns: Singapore and ASEAN partners observe how US domestic checks and balances function in military decision-making. Weak congressional oversight could signal unpredictable US military posture globally, affecting defense planning assumptions.
Caribbean Operations Parallel: If the US can conduct sustained military operations in the Caribbean with minimal oversight, similar approaches could theoretically apply to other regions including Southeast Asian waters, affecting Singapore’s calculations about US security guarantees.
International Law Standards: Singapore, as a maritime nation deeply invested in international legal frameworks, has strong interests in ensuring major powers uphold laws of armed conflict. The Venezuela strikes test whether the US maintains these standards.
Regional Security Dynamics
South China Sea Implications: The dispute affects confidence in US security commitments throughout the Indo-Pacific. If Congress cannot effectively oversee military operations in America’s immediate neighborhood, questions arise about accountability for operations further from US shores.
ASEAN Neutrality Calculus: Singapore and other ASEAN states carefully balance relationships between major powers. US military adventurism without clear congressional authorization complicates the argument that US engagement brings stability and rule-based order to the region.
Defense Cooperation Confidence: Singapore maintains extensive defense ties with the US, including basing arrangements and intelligence sharing. Lack of civilian oversight over US military operations could trigger domestic political pressure to reassess these arrangements.
Economic and Maritime Security
Shipping Lane Concerns: Singapore’s economy depends on secure maritime trade routes. The Caribbean operations demonstrate willingness to use lethal force against vessels in international waters on counter-narcotics grounds, potentially creating precedents that could affect commercial shipping security globally.
Narcotics Transit Routes: While the Caribbean is far from Singapore geographically, Southeast Asia faces similar drug trafficking challenges. The case study provides lessons about balancing security operations with maritime law and civilian protection.
Regional Stability Premium: Singapore benefits enormously from regional stability. Any US military approach that operates with limited accountability could embolden other powers to take similar liberties, undermining the rules-based order that Singapore depends upon.
Recommendations
For US Policymakers
- Prioritize transparency: Release maximum feasible video evidence with necessary redactions to rebuild congressional trust
- Update war authorization framework: Work with Congress to modernize legal authorities for 21st-century security threats
- Strengthen reporting systems: Implement automated compliance mechanisms for quarterly reporting requirements
For Singapore and Regional Partners
- Monitor and assess: Closely track the oversight dispute’s resolution as indicator of US decision-making reliability
- Strengthen multilateral frameworks: Use ASEAN platforms to reinforce international legal norms governing maritime security operations
- Diversify partnerships: Continue developing security relationships beyond US alliance to hedge against unpredictability
- Engage diplomatically: Privately communicate concerns about operational transparency to US counterparts through Five Power Defence Arrangements and bilateral channels
For International Community
- Uphold accountability standards: International bodies should document potential violations of laws of armed conflict
- Support congressional oversight: Recognize effective domestic checks and balances as contributor to international stability
- Clarify maritime law: Use this case to strengthen international legal frameworks governing use of force against vessels
Conclusion
The Hegseth oversight dispute represents far more than a bureaucratic standoff over travel budgets. It tests fundamental principles of democratic civilian control over military force, with implications extending well beyond US shores. For Singapore and the broader Indo-Pacific region, the outcome will signal whether the United States maintains robust internal accountability mechanisms that make it a predictable and rule-bound security partner.
The most likely outcome remains negotiated compliance with some restrictions on video release, but the broader questions about war powers and military transparency will persist. Regional partners should prepare for continued US political volatility around military operations while strengthening multilateral frameworks that uphold international legal standards regardless of any single power’s domestic political dynamics.
Key Takeaway: Strong congressional oversight of military operations is not merely a US domestic concern but a global public good that contributes to international stability and rule-based order. Singapore and like-minded states have strategic interest in seeing these oversight mechanisms function effectively.