Israeli West Bank Settlements - Maxthon

Executive Summary

The December 2025 approval of 764 housing units across three West Bank settlements represents part of a broader expansion pattern, with over 51,370 units approved since late 2022. This case study examines the multifaceted dimensions of Israeli settlement policy, its regional implications, potential pathways forward, and relevance to Singapore’s foreign policy interests.

Israeli position: Smotrich described this as part of a “strategic process” for strengthening settlements and ensuring security and growth. Israel cites security concerns and biblical, historical, and political connections to the territory.

International stance: Most world powers consider these settlements illegal under international law, built on land captured in the 1967 war. UN Security Council resolutions have called for a halt to settlement activity.

Palestinian response: The PLO’s Wasel Abu Yousef reiterated that all settlements are considered illegal and contrary to international resolutions.

Context on violence: The article notes a significant increase in settler attacks against Palestinians, with 264 attacks reported in October 2025 alone—the highest monthly total since UN tracking began in 2006.

Background and Current Situation

Historical Context

The West Bank came under Israeli control following the 1967 Six-Day War. Since then, Israeli settlement construction has proceeded through various phases, accelerating and decelerating based on political leadership, international pressure, and regional dynamics. The territory is viewed by Palestinians as essential to a future independent state, while Israel cites security, historical, and religious significance.

Recent Developments (2022-2025)

Under Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s tenure beginning in late 2022, settlement approvals have dramatically accelerated. The current government coalition includes parties explicitly opposed to Palestinian statehood, marking a shift toward more expansionist policies. The 51,370 housing units approved represent one of the most significant construction waves in recent decades.

Geographic Distribution

The recently approved 764 units span three key settlements:

Hashmonaim: Located just beyond the Green Line in central Israel, facilitating easier integration with Israeli infrastructure
Givat Zeev: Near Jerusalem, part of the strategic ring of settlements around the contested capital
Beitar Illit: Also near Jerusalem, one of the largest ultra-Orthodox settlements

This distribution pattern suggests strategic planning to consolidate Israeli presence around Jerusalem and major population centers, effectively creating facts on the ground that complicate future territorial negotiations.

Legal and International Framework

International Law Position

The international consensus, reflected in numerous UN Security Council resolutions, holds that Israeli settlements in occupied territories violate the Fourth Geneva Convention’s prohibition on transferring civilian populations into occupied territory. The International Court of Justice advisory opinion (2004) reinforced this interpretation.

Key legal principles at stake:

Prohibition of acquisition of territory by force
Rights of occupied populations under international humanitarian law
Self-determination rights of the Palestinian people
Applicability of Geneva Conventions to occupied territories

Israeli Legal Justification

Israel disputes the characterization of the West Bank as “occupied territory,” preferring terms like “disputed territories.” Israeli arguments include:

Historical and religious connection to the land (biblical Judea and Samaria)
Security requirements following multiple conflicts
Absence of a previous sovereign with legitimate claim to the territory
Rights derived from the League of Nations Mandate

This legal divergence creates fundamental disagreement that underlies all settlement-related disputes.

Stakeholder Analysis

Israeli Government Position

The current Israeli government views settlements as serving multiple objectives:

Security rationale: Strategic depth and early warning positions against potential threats from the east. Settlements along the Jordan Valley particularly serve this function.

Ideological commitment: For parties like Religious Zionism and parts of Likud, settlement of the entire Land of Israel represents fulfillment of religious and nationalist ideology.

Political considerations: Settlement expansion appeals to key coalition partners and voter bases, particularly in religious and nationalist communities.

Demographic strategy: Creating irreversible facts on the ground that make territorial compromise increasingly difficult.

Palestinian Perspective

Palestinian leadership across the political spectrum opposes settlements as:

Obstacles to statehood: Settlements fragment potential Palestinian territory, making a viable contiguous state increasingly impossible to achieve.

Violations of rights: Palestinians view settlements as theft of land and resources, particularly water, that belong to them under international law.

Drivers of violence: Settler violence against Palestinians has escalated dramatically, with October 2025 seeing 264 attacks—the highest monthly total since UN tracking began in 2006. This creates cycles of violence and retaliation.

Impediments to daily life: Settlements necessitate road closures, checkpoints, and movement restrictions that severely impact Palestinian economic and social life.

International Community

Global powers are divided but largely critical:

United States: Historically the most significant variable. Previous administrations have ranged from active opposition to tacit acceptance. The current position would require investigation, but traditionally the US has been Israel’s primary defender while occasionally criticizing settlement expansion.

European Union: Consistently opposes settlements as illegal and has implemented labeling requirements for settlement products, though member states vary in enforcement intensity.

Arab states: Traditionally united in opposition, though recent normalization agreements (Abraham Accords) have shown some Gulf states prioritizing other strategic interests over Palestinian concerns.

United Nations: Regular resolutions condemn settlements, though enforcement mechanisms remain limited due to Security Council dynamics.

Outlook and Trajectory Analysis

Short-term Outlook (2025-2027)

Several factors suggest continued expansion:

Political momentum: The current Israeli government coalition explicitly supports settlement expansion and lacks internal opposition voices that previously moderated policy.

Weakened Palestinian Authority: The PA’s diminished legitimacy and capacity limits its ability to mobilize effective resistance or international pressure.

Shifting regional priorities: Regional security concerns, particularly regarding Iran, have relegated the Palestinian issue in importance for some Arab states.

International distraction: Global attention focused on conflicts in Ukraine, tensions with China, and domestic political challenges in Western democracies reduces pressure on Israel.

Legal and administrative infrastructure: Israel has streamlined approval processes, making it easier to advance projects quickly.

Expected developments include continued construction in existing settlement blocs, expansion of infrastructure connecting settlements to Israel proper, and increased settler population growth through both natural increase and incentivized immigration.

Medium-term Outlook (2027-2035)

The trajectory becomes more concerning for conflict resolution:

Point of no return: Continued expansion may reach a threshold where the two-state solution becomes physically impossible, leaving no internationally accepted framework for resolution.

Escalating violence: As Palestinian frustration grows and political horizons narrow, armed resistance may increase, potentially triggering wider regional instability.

Demographic challenges: The combined population of Palestinians in the West Bank, Gaza, and Israel may soon equal or exceed Jewish Israelis, raising questions about Israel’s character as both Jewish and democratic if it maintains control over all territories.

Economic fragmentation: The West Bank economy may become even more dependent on Israel while simultaneously more disconnected and impoverished, creating unsustainable conditions.

Generational shifts: Younger Palestinians and Israelis have different perspectives than their parents, potentially either hardening positions or creating new openings for dialogue.

Long-term Outlook (2035+)

Several potential scenarios emerge:

Scenario 1 – Formal Annexation: Israel formally annexes major settlement blocs or the entire West Bank, either offering limited autonomy to Palestinians or facing international isolation over what critics would characterize as apartheid.

Scenario 2 – Prolonged Status Quo: Continued occupation and settlement expansion without resolution, maintaining an unstable equilibrium through security control but at increasing moral, diplomatic, and economic cost.

Scenario 3 – Conflict Escalation: Breakdown into sustained violent conflict, potentially drawing in regional actors and creating humanitarian catastrophe.

Scenario 4 – One-State Reality: Evolution toward a single binational state with equal citizenship rights, though this contradicts both Israeli and Palestinian national aspirations.

Scenario 5 – Creative Solutions: Development of confederation models, shared sovereignty arrangements, or other innovative frameworks that transcend traditional two-state models.

Solutions Framework

Short-term Interventions

Immediate steps that could slow deterioration:

1. Settlement Freeze

International pressure for a comprehensive settlement freeze, including natural growth exceptions. This requires:

Coordinated diplomatic pressure from US, EU, and Arab states
Economic incentives or consequences linked to settlement policy
Clear parameters distinguishing freeze from permanent abandonment
Verification mechanisms to ensure compliance

2. Halt Settler Violence

Urgent action to address escalating attacks:

Israeli prosecution of perpetrators with meaningful sentences
International monitoring presence in vulnerable Palestinian communities
Removal of Israeli security forces who fail to protect Palestinians
Compensation mechanisms for victims

3. Preserve Two-State Possibility

Protect the geographic foundation for partition:

Prohibit construction in areas critical for Palestinian territorial contiguity
Maintain Palestinian presence in Area C through building permits and land rights protection
Prevent demolition of Palestinian structures
Preserve East Jerusalem as potential Palestinian capital

4. Economic Stabilization

Support Palestinian economic viability:

Increase Palestinian access to Area C resources
Enable Palestinian construction and economic activity
Reduce checkpoint and movement restrictions where security permits
International investment in Palestinian economic infrastructure

5. Dialogue Restoration

Rebuild minimal communication channels:

Resume Israeli-Palestinian security coordination
Restart Israeli-PA civil affairs meetings
Establish crisis communication mechanisms
Support track-two dialogues among civil society

Medium-term Strategic Solutions

Approaches requiring sustained effort over several years:

1. Incentivized Diplomacy

Create positive inducement structure:

Major international economic package contingent on freeze and negotiation
Arab state normalization explicitly tied to progress on Palestinian statehood
Security guarantees addressing Israeli concerns about post-withdrawal threats
Regional economic integration benefits (infrastructure, trade, water cooperation)

2. Modified Two-State Framework

Adapt traditional model to current realities:

Land swaps incorporating some settlement blocs into Israel
Shared sovereignty arrangements for Jerusalem (separate municipal services, open city)
NATO or international security presence in Jordan Valley
Palestinian state with temporary limitations on militarization, expiring over time
Compensation fund for Palestinian refugees rather than full return right

3. Institutional Capacity Building

Strengthen Palestinian governance:

Reform Palestinian Authority to improve legitimacy, reduce corruption
Palestinian security force professionalization with international support
Democratic renewal including long-overdue elections
Gaza-West Bank reconciliation process
Judicial and civil service development

4. Settler Accommodation

Address fears driving settlement expansion:

Some settlers remain in Palestinian state as permanent residents (similar to Palestinians in Israel)
Compensation program for settlers relocating from isolated settlements
Religious access guarantees to holy sites
Economic transition support for settlements dependent on occupation economy

5. International Involvement

Sustained engagement replacing episodic attention:

Permanent international implementation force (not just monitoring)
Multilateral negotiation framework preventing either party from walking away
Economic reconstruction fund for both parties (Marshall Plan model)
Long-term commitment spanning decades, not just initial agreement phase

Long-term Transformative Solutions

Fundamental restructuring requiring generational change:

1. Confederation Model

Two states with extensive coordination:

Separate Israeli and Palestinian states with full sovereignty
Open borders allowing freedom of movement for both peoples
Joint institutions managing shared concerns (water, environment, economics)
Distributed security arrangements with international component
Jerusalem as shared capital with separate administrative systems

Benefits: Addresses settlers who wish to remain, maintains national identities, allows economic integration

Challenges: Requires extraordinary trust, complex institutional arrangements, may blur sovereignty

2. Regional Framework

Embed solution in broader context:

Israeli-Palestinian agreement as component of comprehensive Middle East peace
Regional economic zone including Israel, Palestine, Jordan, Egypt
Water, energy, and transportation infrastructure projects benefiting entire region
Security architecture addressing concerns beyond Israeli-Palestinian conflict
Arab League normalization contingent on and supporting Palestinian state

Benefits: Creates positive-sum dynamics, provides security umbrella, offers economic incentives

Challenges: Multiple moving parts, diverse interests, some states (Iran, Syria) excluded or opposed

3. Truth and Reconciliation

Address historical grievances:

Acknowledge Nakba and Palestinian dispossession (Israeli side)
Acknowledge Jewish historical connection and persecution (Palestinian side)
Document and preserve narratives from both communities
Education reforms teaching dual narrative in both societies
Memorial and commemoration mechanisms
Compensation for documented losses where possible

Benefits: Addresses deep psychological barriers, builds foundation for coexistence

Challenges: Politically difficult in both societies, doesn’t resolve territorial issues, requires generational timeline

4. Economic Integration First

Build cooperation before political resolution:

Major infrastructure projects employing both populations
Joint industrial zones and technology parks
Integrated tourism development (holy sites, Dead Sea, historical sites)
Environmental cooperation (water scarcity, climate adaptation)
Academic and professional exchanges

Benefits: Creates stakeholders in peace, demonstrates benefits of cooperation, builds personal relationships

Challenges: May perpetuate unequal power dynamics, doesn’t address core political grievances, settlements continue during integration

5. Generational Transformation

Invest in long-term attitudinal change:

Joint schools and peace education programs
Sister city relationships and youth exchanges
Professional collaboration in medicine, technology, agriculture
Arts and culture initiatives bridging communities
Sports and civil society cooperation
Media initiatives countering dehumanization

Benefits: Addresses root causes, creates constituency for peace among younger generation

Challenges: Requires decades, vulnerable to violence setbacks, may face political opposition

Obstacles to Resolution

Understanding barriers is essential to crafting effective solutions:

Political Obstacles

Domestic political systems in both societies reward hardline positions
Leadership lacks political capital to make necessary compromises
Religious and nationalist ideologies resistant to territorial compromise
Spoilers on both sides benefit from continued conflict

Security Concerns

Israeli fears of post-withdrawal terrorism (Gaza withdrawal trauma)
Palestinian fears of continued Israeli control even after statehood
Regional instability (Syria, Iraq, Iran) increases Israeli threat perception
Proliferation of weapons and militant groups

Practical Complications

700,000+ settlers now in West Bank and East Jerusalem
Infrastructure built assuming permanent Israeli control
Economic interdependence creates relocation challenges
Water resources critically important and geographically distributed

Psychological Barriers

Deep mutual distrust after decades of conflict
Dehumanization and negative stereotyping
Historical grievances and competing narratives
Fear and trauma affecting both populations

International Limitations

US political system constrains pressure on Israel
European disunity prevents coordinated action
Arab states pursue own interests, reducing support for Palestinians
International law mechanisms lack enforcement capacity
Global attention focused elsewhere

Singapore’s Interests and Impact Analysis

Direct Impacts

As a small, trade-dependent nation with security concerns and multicultural population, Singapore has several specific interests:

1. Regional Stability

Middle East instability affects Singapore through:

Energy security: While Singapore imports minimal oil from Middle East directly, global energy prices affect Singapore’s petrochemical and maritime industries
Maritime security: Tensions can disrupt shipping through Suez Canal and Red Sea, vital for Singapore’s position as global port hub
Supply chain disruptions: Broader Middle East conflict affects global trade flows that Singapore depends upon

2. International Law Precedents

Singapore has consistently advocated for:

Territorial integrity: As small nation, Singapore benefits from strong norms against territorial acquisition by force
Rules-based order: Settlement issue tests whether international law has meaning or power matters exclusively
Peaceful dispute resolution: Singapore’s security depends on diplomatic solutions to territorial disputes

Singapore’s positions on South China Sea disputes parallel its concerns about West Bank settlements—both involve occupation, international law questions, and small states’ vulnerability to power politics.

3. Interfaith Harmony

Singapore’s multiracial, multireligious society creates domestic dimensions:

Muslim community concerns: Singapore’s Malay-Muslim community (approximately 15% of population) follows Palestinian issue closely
Jewish community relations: Small but established Jewish community has ties to Israel
Religious harmony maintenance: Government must balance different communities’ sensitivities
Radicalization prevention: Perceived injustices abroad can fuel extremism; Singapore has experienced terrorism linked to Middle East conflicts

4. Diplomatic Relations

Singapore maintains relations with both sides:

Israel ties: Defense cooperation, technology partnerships, cybersecurity collaboration, water management expertise
Palestinian relations: Singapore recognizes Palestine as state (2016), provides humanitarian assistance
Arab world relations: Economic partnerships with Gulf states, OIC membership considerations
Non-Aligned Movement: Balancing act between different geopolitical blocs

Singapore’s Policy Approach

Singapore has historically navigated this through:

Principled Neutrality

Consistent support for two-state solution based on pre-1967 lines with mutually agreed swaps
Opposition to unilateral actions by either party
Calls for both sides to resume negotiations
Support for UN resolutions while maintaining practical relationships

Quiet Diplomacy

Avoids high-profile positions that alienate either side
Engages both parties through back channels
Focuses on humanitarian concerns rather than political rhetoric
Votes at UN reflect international law principles but explained in moderate terms

Practical Cooperation

Continues beneficial relationships regardless of political disagreements
Distinguishes between government policies and people-to-people ties
Participates in humanitarian assistance to Palestinians
Maintains defense and technology partnerships with Israel

Potential Scenarios Affecting Singapore

Scenario 1: Conflict Escalation

Major war involving Israel, Palestinian territories, and regional powers would impact Singapore through:

Energy price spikes affecting Singapore’s economy
Flight path disruptions (Singapore Airlines and others use Middle East airspace)
Increased regional tensions affecting Singapore’s Muslim-majority neighbors
Potential for terrorism affecting Singapore given its Western alignment and Israeli ties
Global economic recession if conflict severe enough

Scenario 2: Permanent One-State Reality

If Israel formally annexes West Bank or implements permanent control:

International law precedent undermining small states’ security
Pressure on Singapore to take clearer position, potentially alienating partners
Muslim world reaction could affect Singapore’s regional relationships
Domestic interfaith tensions requiring careful management

Scenario 3: Successful Two-State Solution

Resolution would benefit Singapore through:

Regional stability supporting economic growth and trade
Validation of international law and diplomatic solutions
Reduced terrorism motivation globally
Economic opportunities in Palestinian reconstruction
Model for resolving other territorial disputes peacefully

Strategic Recommendations for Singapore

1. Maintain Principled Position

Continue supporting international law framework:

Consistently oppose settlement expansion as violating international law
Support two-state solution in all international forums
Avoid actions that legitimize settlements (trade agreements, official visits)
Explain positions clearly to domestic audiences to prevent misunderstanding

2. Enhance Mediation Role

Singapore could increase contribution to peace efforts:

Offer expertise in urban planning, water management, port development for future Palestinian state
Provide training for Palestinian civil servants in Singapore (building institutional capacity)
Host track-two dialogue sessions leveraging Singapore’s neutral reputation
Share Singapore’s multiracial governance experience as potential model

3. Strengthen Domestic Resilience

Prepare for various scenarios:

Continue interfaith dialogue programs preventing external conflicts from creating internal tensions
Monitor and counter extremist narratives about conflict
Maintain transparent communication about Singapore’s balanced position
Ensure energy security through diversification and strategic reserves
Strengthen maritime security cooperation given shipping vulnerabilities

4. Deepen Regional Coordination

Work with ASEAN partners:

Coordinate positions on Middle East issues
Develop regional response frameworks for escalation scenarios
Build economic resilience against Middle East instability
Share intelligence on terrorism threats linked to Middle East conflicts

5. Expand Humanitarian Role

Practical contributions that help without taking political sides:

Increase humanitarian assistance to Palestinian civilians
Support healthcare and education projects in Palestinian territories
Participate in refugee assistance programs
Provide technical expertise for Palestinian economic development

6. Invest in Long-term Relationships

Maintain engagement with all parties:

Continue beneficial partnerships with Israel while being clear about settlement opposition
Strengthen ties with Palestinian leadership and civil society
Deepen relationships with moderate Arab states that support two-state solution
Build relationships with diaspora communities who may influence peace process

Conclusion

The Israeli settlement expansion represents one of the most intractable conflicts in modern international relations, with profound implications for regional stability, international law, and global security. The December 2025 approvals of 764 housing units, part of over 51,000 since 2022, accelerate a process that increasingly forecloses the two-state solution long considered the only viable resolution framework.

The outlook is sobering. Without significant policy shifts, the trajectory points toward continued expansion, escalating violence, and ultimately a reality where no internationally acceptable solution remains possible. This would create a permanent occupation, formalized annexation, or single state—outcomes that fail to satisfy either party’s national aspirations while violating international legal principles.

Solutions exist across multiple timeframes, from immediate interventions like settlement freezes and violence reduction, to medium-term diplomatic frameworks involving incentivized negotiations and creative sovereignty arrangements, to long-term transformative approaches like confederation models and generational reconciliation. However, each faces substantial obstacles: domestic politics rewarding extremism, deep security concerns on both sides, practical complications from settlement facts on the ground, and international community limitations.

For Singapore, this distant conflict carries meaningful implications. Regional instability affects energy prices, shipping routes, and global trade. International law precedents matter for small states’ security. Interfaith harmony requires careful navigation of community sensitivities. The conflict tests whether diplomatic solutions and rules-based order can prevail over unilateral actions and power politics—questions central to Singapore’s own security interests.

Singapore’s approach should continue balancing principled positions supporting international law and two-state solutions with practical engagement with all parties, quiet diplomacy avoiding inflammatory rhetoric, and domestic resilience against conflict spillover. Enhanced contributions through technical assistance, humanitarian support, and potential mediation roles could increase Singapore’s positive impact while maintaining its valuable neutral standing.

Ultimately, resolution requires not just clever diplomatic frameworks but fundamental transformation of both societies’ relationships with the conflict. This demands visionary leadership willing to take political risks, sustained international engagement providing incentives and security guarantees, and generational change creating constituencies for peace. Without these elements, the settlements will continue expanding, the two-state solution will become impossible, and the resulting reality will satisfy no one while destabilizing a region whose stability matters far beyond its borders.