Israel-Hamas Peace Talks

by | Dec 11, 2025 | Uncategorized | 0 comments

December 2025

Executive Summary

The current Israel-Hamas ceasefire, in effect since October 10, 2025, faces a critical impasse over disarmament requirements in the US-sponsored peace plan. This case study examines the dispute’s core issues, analyzes potential outcomes, and explores implications for regional stability and Singapore’s interests.

Background Context

Origins of Current Conflict:

  • War began after Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023
  • Ceasefire implemented October 10, 2025, after over two years of conflict
  • Current truce remains fragile with daily accusations of violations from both sides

Current Status:

  • First phase of ceasefire largely completed: hostage releases and prisoner exchanges conducted
  • Second phase negotiations stalled over disarmament terms
  • Netanyahu-Trump meeting scheduled for December 29, 2025

Core Dispute Analysis

The Disarmament Deadlock

Israeli Position:

  • Demands complete disarmament of Hamas under the 20-point US plan
  • Insists Gaza must be fully demilitarized
  • States “there will be no future for Hamas” under the agreement
  • Views Hamas disarmament as essential security requirement

Hamas Position:

  • Proposes weapons “freeze” or secure storage as compromise
  • Rejects total disarmament as “unacceptable to the resistance”
  • Argues for pragmatic solution with US administration
  • Seeks to maintain defensive capability while preventing escalation

International Stabilization Force (ISF) Dispute

Areas of Disagreement:

Israeli Expectations:

  • ISF to replace Israeli troops throughout Gaza in phase two
  • International force to maintain security inside the territory
  • Ensure demilitarization is enforced and maintained

Hamas Position:

  • Accepts ISF deployment along Gaza-Israel border (UNIFIL model)
  • Rejects ISF presence inside Gaza as “occupation”
  • Views internal deployment as violation of Palestinian sovereignty
  • Proposes mediators and Arab/Islamic nations as “guarantors” instead

Outlook Analysis

Short-Term Scenarios (3-6 months)

Scenario 1: Continued Stalemate (55% probability)

  • Negotiations remain deadlocked on disarmament issue
  • Ceasefire holds but remains fragile
  • Sporadic violations continue
  • First phase partially implemented but second phase delayed indefinitely

Scenario 2: Compromise Agreement (25% probability)

  • Modified disarmament formula developed (phased approach)
  • Limited ISF deployment along borders only
  • Third-party monitoring mechanisms established
  • Gradual transition to phase two begins

Scenario 3: Ceasefire Collapse (20% probability)

  • Negotiations break down completely
  • Major violation triggers renewed hostilities
  • Regional actors unable to contain escalation
  • International community fails to broker alternative

Medium-Term Outlook (6-18 months)

Key Variables:

  • US Administration’s diplomatic leverage and commitment
  • Regional mediators’ (Qatar, Egypt) effectiveness
  • Internal political pressures on both Netanyahu and Hamas leadership
  • Palestinian public opinion and support for armed resistance
  • International community’s sustained engagement

Most Likely Path: Extended negotiation period with incremental progress, punctuated by periodic crises. Neither party currently willing to make fundamental concessions required for breakthrough.

Long-Term Trajectory (2-5 years)

Critical Questions:

  • Can Hamas transition from armed resistance to political organization?
  • Will Israel accept any Hamas role in Gaza’s future governance?
  • Can Gaza’s reconstruction proceed without political resolution?
  • Will broader Israeli-Palestinian peace process resume?

Proposed Solutions

Immediate Solutions (0-6 months)

1. Phased Disarmament Framework

  • Year 1: Weapons registration and storage under international supervision
  • Year 2: Gradual decommissioning with verification mechanisms
  • Year 3: Complete demilitarization contingent on security guarantees
  • Allows both parties to claim partial victory while maintaining face

2. Hybrid Security Architecture

  • ISF deployment limited to buffer zones and border areas
  • Palestinian Authority security forces inside Gaza (requires reconciliation)
  • Joint monitoring committees with international observers
  • Clear rules of engagement and violation response protocols

3. Confidence-Building Measures

  • Accelerate prisoner releases on both sides
  • Expedite Gaza reconstruction with international funding
  • Ease Israeli restrictions on Gaza movement and commerce
  • Establish hotlines and deconfliction mechanisms

4. Transparent Verification System

  • UN-led monitoring of weapons freeze/storage
  • Regular inspections with agreed protocols
  • Real-time reporting to all parties and guarantors
  • Technology-enabled verification (sensors, surveillance)

Medium-Term Solutions (6-18 months)

1. Gaza Reconstruction and Governance Reform

  • International fund for rebuilding (similar to Marshall Plan model)
  • Tie reconstruction aid to political reforms
  • Establish technocratic interim administration
  • Create economic incentives for demilitarization

2. Regional Security Framework

  • Egypt, Jordan, UAE, and Saudi Arabia as active guarantors
  • Regional peacekeeping contributions to ISF
  • Economic integration of Gaza into broader Middle East
  • Security cooperation agreements

3. Palestinian Reconciliation

  • Facilitated dialogue between Hamas and Palestinian Authority
  • Power-sharing agreement for Gaza governance
  • Unified Palestinian position in negotiations
  • Elections under international supervision

4. Addressing Root Causes

  • Begin parallel track on broader Israeli-Palestinian negotiations
  • Address Gaza blockade and freedom of movement
  • Discuss Jerusalem and settlement issues
  • Two-state solution parameters

Long-Term Solutions (2-5 years)

1. Comprehensive Peace Agreement

  • Integration of Gaza resolution into broader peace framework
  • Permanent borders, security arrangements, and Jerusalem status
  • Palestinian statehood with demilitarized Gaza and West Bank
  • Regional normalization (Abraham Accords expansion)

2. Economic Development Strategy

  • Transform Gaza into economic zone with port and airport
  • Create 200,000+ jobs through international investment
  • Develop tourism, tech, and manufacturing sectors
  • Connect Gaza to regional trade networks

3. Security Transformation

  • Professional Palestinian security forces replace militant groups
  • NATO or Arab League security guarantees for Israel
  • Regional missile defense cooperation
  • Permanent international monitoring presence

4. Reconciliation and Justice

  • Truth and reconciliation commission for conflict victims
  • Reparations and compensation frameworks
  • Educational exchange programs
  • Cultural and people-to-people initiatives

Singapore’s Interests and Impact

Direct Impacts

1. Economic Considerations

  • Oil price volatility affects Singapore’s refining and trading sectors
  • Regional instability impacts global supply chains
  • Potential disruption to Red Sea/Suez shipping routes
  • Insurance costs for maritime trade may increase

2. Security Implications

  • Regional conflict creates terrorism financing risks
  • Potential for radicalization affecting Southeast Asian networks
  • Singapore’s defense relationships with both Israel and Arab states require careful balance
  • Intelligence sharing and counter-terrorism cooperation affected

3. Diplomatic Positioning

  • Singapore maintains relations with Israel and Palestinian supporters
  • ASEAN centrality requires balanced Middle East policy
  • Singapore’s UN Security Council positions on conflict scrutinized
  • Reputation as neutral mediator/financial hub at stake

Indirect Impacts

1. Global Trade and Finance

  • Prolonged conflict sustains global economic uncertainty
  • Energy market instability affects Asian economies
  • Investment flows to Asia potentially disrupted
  • Safe haven demand affects Singapore’s financial markets

2. Humanitarian Considerations

  • Singapore’s contributions to Gaza reconstruction efforts
  • Potential refugee flows affecting regional stability
  • Singapore’s reputation on humanitarian issues
  • Role in international aid coordination

3. Interfaith Relations

  • Domestic Muslim community concerns about Gaza situation
  • Maintaining religious harmony requires sensitive handling
  • Singapore’s model of multi-religious coexistence as soft power

Singapore’s Strategic Response Options

1. Diplomatic Track

  • Support UN-led peace processes publicly
  • Offer technical assistance for governance and reconstruction
  • Facilitate Track II dialogues using Singapore’s neutral status
  • Strengthen relationships with regional mediators (Qatar, Egypt)

2. Economic Engagement

  • Participate in Gaza reconstruction financing (World Bank, ADB)
  • Provide expertise in port development and trade facilitation
  • Offer urban planning and infrastructure development assistance
  • Support Palestinian economic capacity building

3. Humanitarian Contribution

  • Increase aid to Gaza through UN agencies
  • Provide medical assistance and supplies
  • Support education and skills training programs
  • Deploy Singapore Civil Defence Force for disaster relief if requested

4. Regional Stability

  • Strengthen ASEAN-Gulf cooperation on counter-terrorism
  • Enhance maritime security in critical waterways
  • Support energy security initiatives
  • Promote interfaith dialogue platforms

Risk Assessment

Risks of Continued Impasse

High Probability Risks:

  • Erosion of ceasefire through incremental violations
  • Humanitarian crisis worsening in Gaza
  • Regional extremist groups exploiting vacuum
  • Loss of international community’s attention and support

Medium Probability Risks:

  • Full-scale conflict resumption
  • Regional escalation involving Iran, Hezbollah, or other actors
  • Collapse of Palestinian Authority in West Bank
  • Breakdown of Abraham Accords normalization

Low Probability, High Impact Risks:

  • Major terrorist attack triggering wider war
  • Israeli political crisis undermining negotiations
  • Hamas leadership transition causing instability
  • US disengagement from peace process

Opportunities in Current Moment

1. Regional Transformation

  • Arab states more willing to pressure Hamas
  • Israel-Arab normalization creates new leverage
  • Changed regional dynamics since 2023

2. International Alignment

  • US, EU, and Arab states broadly aligned on goals
  • China and Russia less obstructive than in past
  • International fatigue with conflict creates pressure for resolution

3. Economic Incentives

  • Massive reconstruction funds available as carrot
  • Regional economic integration possibilities
  • Young Palestinian population seeking opportunity over conflict

Recommendations

For International Community

  1. Sustained Diplomatic Pressure: Maintain consistent engagement rather than episodic attention
  2. Creative Compromise: Develop face-saving formulas on disarmament allowing both sides to claim success
  3. Economic Leverage: Use reconstruction funding to incentivize political concessions
  4. Regional Integration: Engage Arab states as active peace guarantors, not just mediators
  5. Parallel Tracks: Address Gaza while advancing broader Israeli-Palestinian peace process

For Singapore

  1. Balanced Engagement: Maintain principled position supporting two-state solution while preserving relationships
  2. Niche Contributions: Offer technical expertise in areas of comparative advantage (governance, infrastructure, trade)
  3. Regional Coordination: Work through ASEAN to develop collective Southeast Asian approach
  4. Domestic Harmony: Ensure transparent communication with all communities about Singapore’s position
  5. Strategic Preparation: Develop contingency plans for various escalation scenarios affecting trade and security

Conclusion

The Israel-Hamas disarmament dispute represents a fundamental clash between Israel’s security imperatives and Hamas’s political survival. Neither party can afford to appear weak to domestic constituencies, creating a seemingly intractable deadlock.

However, the current moment also presents opportunities. Regional dynamics have shifted, international alignment is stronger, and economic incentives are substantial. A phased approach to disarmament, combined with creative security arrangements and massive reconstruction investment, could provide a pathway forward.

For Singapore, the conflict’s continuation poses manageable but real risks to trade, security, and regional stability. Singapore’s response should emphasize its traditional strengths: pragmatic diplomacy, technical expertise, and principled neutrality. By contributing to practical solutions while maintaining balanced relationships, Singapore can protect its interests while supporting regional peace.

The ultimate success of peace efforts will depend on whether international mediators can craft compromise formulas that allow both parties to claim victory while making the essential concessions needed for lasting peace. The December 29 Netanyahu-Trump meeting will be a critical test of whether such creativity is forthcoming.