Thailand-Cambodia Border Conflict

by | Dec 24, 2025 | Uncategorized | 0 comments

Executive Summary

The December 2025 military clashes between Thailand and Cambodia represent a critical escalation of a century-old territorial dispute, resulting in over 40 deaths and approximately one million displaced persons. This case study examines the conflict’s origins, current developments, potential solutions, and regional implications, with particular focus on Singapore’s interests.

Case Background

Historical Context

The Thailand-Cambodia border dispute originates from colonial-era demarcation issues dating back to French Indochina. The 800-kilometer frontier includes several ancient Khmer temple complexes, most notably Preah Vihear Temple, which has been contested since the early 20th century. Despite a 1962 International Court of Justice ruling awarding Preah Vihear to Cambodia, disagreements persist over surrounding land and other temple sites.

Current Crisis (December 2025)

The conflict reignited in early December 2025 with unprecedented intensity:

Casualties and Displacement:

  • 40+ confirmed deaths
  • Nearly 1 million displaced persons
  • Significant civilian infrastructure damage

Key Flashpoint – Vishnu Statue Incident: On December 21, 2025, Thai military forces allegedly demolished a Hindu Vishnu statue in the An Ses area using heavy machinery. Cambodia claims the statue, erected in 2014, stood within its territory approximately 100 meters from the border. Verified video footage circulated widely on social media, generating over 2 million views and international attention.

Competing Narratives:

  • Cambodia accuses Thailand of destroying religious sites and positioning forces aggressively
  • Thailand claims Cambodia uses ancient temple ruins as military positions
  • Both sides blame each other for initiating hostilities and targeting civilians

Failed Diplomatic Efforts

As of December 24, 2025, peace talks remain stalled:

  • Cambodia requested bilateral negotiations in a neutral third country
  • Thailand rejected this proposal, instead scheduling talks in Chanthaburi province (Thai territory)
  • Cambodia has not confirmed attendance
  • Chinese diplomatic mediation efforts have yielded limited results

Outlook: Potential Scenarios

Scenario 1: Continued Military Escalation (40% probability)

Trajectory: Military confrontations intensify over the next 3-6 months, with sporadic fighting along multiple border points. Neither side achieves decisive military advantage, leading to protracted low-intensity conflict.

Indicators:

  • Failure of December 24 peace talks
  • Nationalist rhetoric intensifies domestically in both countries
  • Military buildup continues along disputed zones
  • Regional powers unable to broker effective ceasefire

Consequences:

  • Death toll rises to 100-200
  • Displaced population exceeds 2 million
  • Regional trade disruption intensifies
  • ASEAN credibility severely damaged
  • Humanitarian crisis requiring international intervention

Scenario 2: Frozen Conflict with Periodic Flares (35% probability)

Trajectory: A tenuous ceasefire emerges within 1-2 months, but underlying territorial disputes remain unresolved. Border remains militarized with periodic violence every 6-12 months.

Indicators:

  • Face-saving ceasefire agreement reached
  • No substantive progress on territorial demarcation
  • Both militaries maintain forward positions
  • Economic ties partially restored but remain fragile

Consequences:

  • Persistent displacement of border communities
  • Ongoing military expenditure burden
  • Regional economic integration stalls
  • Tourism sector permanently impacted in both countries

Scenario 3: Negotiated De-escalation (25% probability)

Trajectory: Regional pressure, economic costs, and domestic fatigue push both parties toward genuine negotiations within 2-3 months, leading to temporary conflict resolution mechanisms.

Indicators:

  • ASEAN or major powers (China, US, India) apply sustained diplomatic pressure
  • Economic costs become politically untenable
  • Third-party mediation gains traction
  • Public opinion shifts toward peace in both countries

Consequences:

  • Gradual return of displaced populations
  • Joint development zones established in disputed areas
  • International monitoring mechanisms deployed
  • Economic recovery begins within 6 months

Long-Term Solutions

Immediate Term (0-6 months)

1. Humanitarian Ceasefire and Confidence Building

Establish an immediate cessation of hostilities monitored by neutral observers. Priority actions include:

  • Deploy ASEAN or UN peacekeeping observers along conflict zones
  • Create demilitarized buffer zones at key flashpoints
  • Establish humanitarian corridors for displaced populations
  • Set up joint investigation committee for civilian casualties and cultural site damage
  • Implement military-to-military hotlines to prevent escalation

Implementation Mechanism: ASEAN-led with support from major regional stakeholders (Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia)

2. Emergency Humanitarian Response

Address the displacement crisis affecting nearly one million people:

  • Coordinate international humanitarian assistance through ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance
  • Establish temporary settlements with adequate infrastructure
  • Provide medical services, food security, and psychosocial support
  • Plan safe, voluntary repatriation when conditions permit
  • Document and preserve evidence for future accountability

Lead Actors: UNHCR, ASEAN Humanitarian Assistance Centre, regional governments

Medium Term (6-24 months)

3. Border Demarcation and Joint Technical Commission

Address the root cause through professional technical resolution:

  • Establish bilateral technical commission with international cartography experts
  • Utilize modern GPS and satellite mapping technology
  • Review and reconcile colonial-era maps with current geographic data
  • Create detailed border protocols for disputed segments
  • Develop joint patrolling arrangements

Key Principles:

  • Historical evidence balanced with practical considerations
  • Win-win approach recognizing both nations’ core interests
  • International legal framework (ICJ precedents)
  • Transparent methodology accepted by both parties

4. Cultural Heritage Protection Framework

Prevent future incidents involving ancient temples and religious sites:

  • Declare disputed temple complexes as UNESCO World Heritage Sites with joint management
  • Establish 5-kilometer demilitarized cultural protection zones around significant sites
  • Create joint archaeological and conservation committees
  • Implement revenue-sharing from temple tourism
  • Develop shared cultural narrative recognizing Khmer heritage

Model: Similar to Jerusalem’s holy sites management or the Preah Vihear Temple ICJ framework

5. Economic Interdependence Initiatives

Build economic incentives for peace:

  • Establish special economic zones in border areas with joint development
  • Create cross-border trade facilitation mechanisms
  • Develop joint infrastructure projects (roads, energy, water management)
  • Promote people-to-people exchanges and business partnerships
  • Integrate supply chains to raise costs of conflict

Long Term (2-10 years)

6. Regional Security Architecture

Strengthen ASEAN mechanisms to prevent future escalations:

  • Enhance ASEAN Regional Forum conflict prevention capabilities
  • Develop binding dispute resolution protocols within ASEAN Charter
  • Create rapid response mechanisms for border incidents
  • Establish permanent ASEAN mediation capacity
  • Implement early warning systems for conflict escalation

7. Domestic Political Reconciliation

Address nationalist narratives that fuel conflict:

  • Educational curriculum reforms emphasizing shared history and cooperation
  • Media guidelines discouraging inflammatory reporting
  • Civil society dialogues and reconciliation programs
  • Economic development in border regions to reduce marginalization
  • Political incentives for leaders who pursue peaceful resolution

8. Legal and Institutional Framework

Build permanent structures for peaceful coexistence:

  • Comprehensive border treaty with dispute resolution mechanisms
  • Permanent Joint Border Commission with decision-making authority
  • International Court of Justice or ASEAN arbitration for unresolved disputes
  • Regular bilateral summits at head-of-state level
  • Parliamentary exchanges and legislation coordination

9. Collective Security Guarantees

Reduce security dilemma through regional backing:

  • ASEAN collective security guarantees for all member borders
  • Defense cooperation agreements replacing bilateral rivalry
  • Joint military exercises focusing on humanitarian and disaster response
  • Military-to-military exchange programs
  • Shared threat assessment focusing on non-traditional security challenges

Singapore’s Impact and Strategic Interests

Direct Impacts

1. Economic Disruption

Singapore faces tangible economic consequences from this conflict:

  • Supply Chain Disruptions: Land routes connecting Singapore to mainland Southeast Asia through Thailand may experience delays, affecting just-in-time manufacturing and logistics
  • Trade Volume Reduction: Singapore serves as a major trading hub for both Thailand and Cambodia; conflict reduces bilateral trade flows through Singapore’s ports and airports
  • Investment Climate: Regional instability undermines investor confidence in ASEAN markets, potentially affecting Singapore’s role as regional financial center
  • Tourism Sector: Regional conflict discourages tourism to Southeast Asia broadly, impacting Singapore’s tourism-dependent sectors

2. Port and Logistics Considerations

As noted in recent reports, Singapore’s PSA is already managing potential demand from Red Sea rerouting. Additional ASEAN instability compounds operational planning challenges:

  • Potential increased maritime traffic if land routes remain unstable
  • Need for additional capacity planning and congestion management
  • Opportunities for Singapore to strengthen position as reliable regional hub during uncertainty

3. Refugee and Migration Pressures

While direct refugee flows to Singapore remain unlikely, secondary effects include:

  • Increased irregular migration flows through Southeast Asia
  • Humanitarian assistance obligations as ASEAN member
  • Potential need to provide temporary assistance or safe haven for third-country nationals evacuating conflict zones

Strategic Implications

1. ASEAN Credibility Crisis

This conflict fundamentally challenges ASEAN’s core principles:

  • Questions effectiveness of ASEAN Way (consensus, non-interference)
  • Tests ASEAN’s ability to manage intra-member disputes
  • Undermines ASEAN centrality in regional security architecture
  • Weakens ASEAN’s negotiating position with major powers (US, China)

Singapore’s Response Imperative: As ASEAN’s strongest advocate for rules-based order and one of its most economically successful members, Singapore must actively work to restore ASEAN effectiveness or risk broader institutional erosion.

2. Balance of Power Dynamics

The conflict creates opportunities for great power interference:

  • China: Beijing has offered mediation, viewing this as opportunity to expand influence in mainland Southeast Asia and demonstrate leadership
  • United States: Washington may increase engagement to prevent Chinese dominance in conflict resolution
  • India: New Delhi has cultural and strategic interests, particularly given Hindu heritage site destruction

Singapore’s Position: Must carefully balance maintaining good relations with all major powers while prioritizing ASEAN cohesion and avoiding bloc fragmentation.

3. Precedent for Future Disputes

If this conflict remains unresolved or escalates without effective ASEAN response:

  • Emboldens other territorial disputants in South China Sea
  • Suggests military force is viable option for resolving ASEAN disputes
  • Weakens normative constraints against intra-ASEAN conflict
  • Could inspire similar confrontations in maritime Southeast Asia

Singapore’s Vulnerability: As a small state heavily dependent on rules-based international order, any erosion of peaceful dispute resolution mechanisms poses existential risk.

Singapore’s Strategic Responses

1. Active ASEAN Diplomacy

Singapore should leverage its diplomatic capital and neutral position:

  • Offer Singapore as neutral venue for peace negotiations
  • Deploy senior diplomats for shuttle diplomacy
  • Utilize Track II diplomacy through research institutions
  • Coordinate with Indonesia and Malaysia for joint ASEAN mediation
  • Propose ASEAN peacekeeping or monitoring mission

Rationale: Singapore has credibility with both parties, no territorial disputes with either, and strong interest in successful outcome.

2. Economic Leverage and Incentives

Singapore can utilize economic tools to encourage de-escalation:

  • Offer technical assistance for border demarcation
  • Propose Singapore-led development assistance for border economic zones
  • Facilitate post-conflict reconstruction financing
  • Provide neutral ground for business confidence-building
  • Coordinate with World Bank and Asian Development Bank for recovery planning

3. Humanitarian Leadership

Singapore should demonstrate ASEAN solidarity through humanitarian action:

  • Contribute to ASEAN humanitarian response for displaced populations
  • Provide medical teams and supplies through existing frameworks
  • Offer Singapore as regional coordination hub for humanitarian assistance
  • Support documentation of cultural heritage damage
  • Facilitate civil society engagement on reconciliation

4. Long-term Institution Building

Singapore should champion institutional reforms to prevent recurrence:

  • Propose strengthening ASEAN dispute resolution mechanisms
  • Advocate for binding arbitration protocols in ASEAN Charter
  • Support establishment of ASEAN peacekeeping capacity
  • Promote ASEAN early warning system for border tensions
  • Invest in ASEAN conflict prevention research and training

5. Strategic Communications

Singapore should shape regional and international narrative:

  • Emphasize ASEAN unity and peaceful conflict resolution norms
  • Highlight economic costs of conflict for regional development
  • Engage international media to maintain pressure for peace
  • Utilize Singapore’s think tanks and academic institutions for policy dialogue
  • Coordinate messaging with like-minded ASEAN states

Risk Management for Singapore

Worst-Case Scenario Planning:

If conflict continues to escalate, Singapore must prepare for:

  • Alternative supply chain routes and logistics arrangements
  • Economic contingency plans for prolonged ASEAN instability
  • Enhanced border security for potential spillover effects
  • Diplomatic isolation strategies if ASEAN fragments
  • Coalition-building with like-minded regional states (Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines)

Opportunity Identification:

Conversely, crisis creates opportunities for Singapore:

  • Strengthen position as ASEAN’s most reliable and stable hub
  • Demonstrate value of rules-based diplomacy and institution-building
  • Deepen relationships with both Thailand and Cambodia through constructive engagement
  • Build capacity as regional mediator and honest broker
  • Advance long-term vision for stronger, more effective ASEAN

Conclusion

The Thailand-Cambodia border conflict represents a critical juncture for Southeast Asian regional order. Without effective resolution, the conflict risks prolonged humanitarian suffering, economic disruption, and fundamental erosion of ASEAN’s credibility and effectiveness.

Long-term solutions require multi-layered approaches addressing immediate humanitarian needs, technical border demarcation, cultural heritage protection, economic interdependence, and institutional strengthening. Success depends on sustained regional diplomatic pressure, economic incentives for peace, and willingness of both parties to prioritize long-term stability over short-term nationalist gains.

For Singapore, this conflict poses both significant risks and strategic opportunities. As a small state heavily invested in rules-based regional order, Singapore must actively engage in conflict resolution while preparing for potential worst-case scenarios. The outcome of this crisis will fundamentally shape Southeast Asia’s future trajectory and Singapore’s long-term security and prosperity.

Key Recommendation: Singapore should immediately convene an informal ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting to coordinate diplomatic response, offer Singapore as neutral venue for Thai-Cambodian negotiations, and begin developing comprehensive ASEAN conflict prevention mechanisms to prevent future recurrences.

Analysis current as of December 24, 2025