Case Study
On December 25, 2025, Israeli forces conducted a targeted assassination of Hussein Mahmoud Marshad al-Jawhari in Lebanon’s Ansariyeh region. Israel identified him as a member of Iran’s Quds Force unit 840, claiming he orchestrated attacks from Syria and Lebanon under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
This incident represents a continuation of Israeli military operations in Lebanon following a November 2024 ceasefire. Despite the US-backed agreement that ended over a year of Israel-Hezbollah conflict, Israel maintains near-daily strikes, justifying them as preventive measures against Hezbollah’s reconstruction efforts.
Key Background Elements:
The November 2024 ceasefire aimed to disarm Hezbollah in southern Lebanon near the Israeli border. However, the killing of an Iranian operative demonstrates that tensions remain high and the security situation unstable. Israel and Iran engaged in brief direct conflict in June 2025, marking an escalation in their long-standing shadow war. The presence of Iranian military personnel in Lebanon indicates Iran’s continued investment in maintaining influence through proxy forces despite international agreements.
Outlook
Short-term Projections (1-6 months):
The region faces continued instability as Israel pursues what it perceives as Iranian threats in Lebanon. The ceasefire framework appears fragile, with Israel interpreting its terms broadly to justify ongoing operations. Iran is unlikely to respond through official channels but may increase support for proxy forces. Hezbollah’s disarmament process will remain incomplete and contested, creating ongoing friction points.
Medium-term Considerations (6-18 months):
Several scenarios could unfold. First, the pattern of targeted strikes may become normalized, creating a new status quo of limited engagement without full conflict resumption. Second, an escalatory spiral could develop if Iran decides to respond more directly or if civilian casualties from Israeli strikes increase significantly. Third, diplomatic efforts might gain traction if regional powers and international actors apply sustained pressure for ceasefire implementation.
The broader regional dynamic involves multiple actors with competing interests. Syria remains a conduit for Iranian influence, Lebanon’s government lacks capacity to enforce disarmament, and US engagement levels will significantly affect outcomes. The success or failure of the ceasefire will set precedents for future conflict resolution in the region.
Solutions
International Diplomatic Framework:
The current situation requires strengthened international monitoring mechanisms. The US-backed ceasefire needs more robust enforcement provisions with clear consequences for violations by any party. UN peacekeeping forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL) require expanded mandates and resources to effectively monitor compliance and create buffer zones. Regional dialogue forums should include all stakeholders, including Iran, to address underlying security concerns rather than managing symptoms.
Conflict De-escalation Measures:
Immediate confidence-building steps could reduce tensions. These include establishing hotlines between Israeli and Lebanese military commands through third-party intermediaries, creating demilitarized zones with international observers, and implementing gradual Hezbollah disarmament tied to Israeli strike cessation. Transparency measures around military movements and activities would reduce miscalculation risks.
Addressing Root Causes:
Long-term stability requires addressing fundamental issues. Lebanon needs international support to strengthen state institutions and provide security independently of militia groups. Iran’s regional influence concerns must be addressed through broader Middle East security architecture discussions. Economic development programs in southern Lebanon could reduce Hezbollah’s social support base by providing alternative livelihoods and services.
Multilateral Engagement:
European Union, Arab League, and Asian nations can play constructive roles by maintaining dialogue with all parties, providing humanitarian assistance to affected populations, and supporting Lebanese state capacity building. Economic incentives and sanctions can be calibrated to encourage compliance with peace agreements without destabilizing Lebanon further.
Impact on Singapore
Economic Considerations:
Singapore’s economy faces limited direct exposure but several indirect risks. Oil price volatility remains the primary concern, as Middle East instability typically drives energy cost fluctuations. While this specific incident is unlikely to disrupt oil markets significantly, broader regional conflict escalation could affect global energy prices, impacting Singapore’s refining sector and overall cost structure. Singapore companies with operations or investments in the region may face increased security costs and operational uncertainties.
Trade and Shipping:
Singapore’s position as a global maritime hub makes it sensitive to any disruptions in Middle Eastern shipping routes. The Strait of Hormuz, through which significant oil and gas supplies pass, could become vulnerable if Israel-Iran tensions escalate into broader conflict. Singapore’s port operations could see altered shipping patterns, though the current incident alone does not warrant immediate concern.
Defense and Security:
Singapore maintains defense relationships with multiple Middle Eastern countries and observes regional conflicts for strategic lessons. The ongoing situation demonstrates the challenges of implementing ceasefires when fundamental security disputes remain unresolved. Singapore’s military planners study such conflicts to understand modern asymmetric warfare, drone usage, intelligence operations, and precision strike capabilities.
Diplomatic Positioning:
Singapore’s foreign policy emphasizes international law, peaceful dispute resolution, and respect for sovereignty. Regional instability that undermines ceasefire agreements contradicts these principles. Singapore typically supports UN-led peace processes and may participate in humanitarian assistance efforts or contribute to peacekeeping operations if requested. The situation reinforces Singapore’s advocacy for rules-based international order and multilateral conflict resolution mechanisms.
Regional Stability Concerns:
As a small state in a complex region, Singapore has strong interests in global stability and functioning international institutions. Middle East instability can have cascading effects through refugee flows, terrorism risks, and great power competition dynamics. While geographically distant, persistent Middle East conflicts divert international attention and resources from other regions, including Southeast Asia.
Diaspora and Community Impacts:
Singapore’s diverse population includes communities with connections to the Middle East. Regional conflicts can create social tensions or concerns among these communities. The government typically manages such situations through community engagement, balanced public statements, and emphasis on Singapore’s multicultural harmony.
Practical Implications:
For Singaporean businesses and travelers, the current situation warrants awareness but not alarm. Companies should monitor travel advisories for Lebanon and surrounding areas. Those with regional operations should review security protocols and crisis management plans. The government will continue tracking developments and updating advisories as needed.
Overall, Singapore’s exposure to this specific incident remains limited, but the broader pattern of Middle East instability carries economic and strategic implications that require ongoing monitoring and adaptive policy responses.