Case Study: December 2024 Incidents

1. Settler attack on Palestinian home: Five Israeli settlers were arrested for allegedly attacking a Palestinian home in Sair (north of Hebron) on December 24, 2025. An eight-month-old baby girl suffered moderate injuries to her face and head when stones were thrown at homes in the area. The suspects reportedly came from a nearby unauthorized outpost.
2. Reservist vehicle ramming: A military reservist in civilian clothes rammed a Palestinian man with his vehicle near Ramallah on December 24. The victim was praying on the roadside when struck. The reservist’s weapon was confiscated and his service was terminated. The victim’s father identified the attacker as a known settler who had established an outpost near their village.

Broader context:

• Settler violence has escalated significantly, with October 2023 recording 264 attacks – the worst month since the UN began tracking such incidents in 2006
• Since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack that triggered the Gaza war, over 1,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli troops and settlers in the West Bank, including militants and civilians
• More than 500,000 Israeli settlers currently live in West Bank settlements, all considered illegal under international law

The article notes that historically, few perpetrators of settler attacks have been held accountable by Israeli authorities.

Incident Overview

Two significant violent incidents occurred on December 24, 2024, in the occupied West Bank, highlighting the escalating pattern of settler violence against Palestinian civilians:

Incident 1: Sair Settlement Attack

• Location: Sair, north of Hebron
• Perpetrators: Five Israeli settlers from an unauthorized outpost
• Victim: Eight-month-old Palestinian infant
• Method: Stone-throwing attack on residential homes
• Outcome: Moderate injuries to the baby’s face and head; arrests made
• Context: Attack linked to “Hilltop Youth” movement, known for hardline direct action against Palestinians

Incident 2: Dayr Jarir Vehicle Ramming

• Location: Near Ramallah
• Perpetrator: Israeli military reservist in civilian clothes
• Victim: Palestinian man praying on roadside
• Method: Deliberate vehicle ramming followed by pepper spray assault
• Outcome: Injuries to both legs; reservist’s service terminated, weapon confiscated
• Context: Perpetrator identified as known settler operating from nearby outpost

Statistical Context

The incidents occurred within a broader pattern of escalating violence:

• October 2023: 264 settler attacks recorded (worst month since UN tracking began in 2006)
• Since October 7, 2023: Over 1,000 Palestinians killed in West Bank by Israeli troops and settlers
• Settler population: More than 500,000 Israelis in West Bank settlements
• Palestinian population: Approximately 3 million in occupied territories
• Historical accountability: Minimal prosecution of settler violence perpetrators

Root Causes Analysis

Structural Factors:

1. Military occupation enabling asymmetric power dynamics
2. Illegal settlement expansion creating territorial friction points
3. Weak accountability mechanisms for settler violence
4. Political support within Israel for settlement enterprise
5. International law violations normalized over decades

Immediate Triggers:

1. Proximity of unauthorized outposts to Palestinian communities
2. Gaza war spillover effects increasing tensions
3. Radicalized settler groups (Hilltop Youth) operating with impunity
4. Armed civilians (including off-duty military) in Palestinian areas
5. Resource competition (land, water, grazing areas)

Psychological Dimensions:

1. Dehumanization of Palestinians within extremist settler ideology
2. Perception of religious or nationalist mission justifying violence
3. Intergenerational trauma and fear on both sides
4. Breakdown of normal social inhibitions against violence
5. Group dynamics reinforcing extremist behavior

Short-Term Solutions

Immediate Security Measures

Enhanced Law Enforcement:

• Rapid response protocols for settler violence incidents
• Mandatory body cameras for security forces in sensitive areas
• Establishment of dedicated investigative units for settler crimes
• Swift prosecution with transparent judicial processes
• Revocation of weapons permits for perpetrators

Protection Mechanisms:

• Increased international observer presence in vulnerable communities
• Emergency communication systems for Palestinian villages
• Safe corridors for essential services and movement
• Temporary protective orders removing violent settlers from areas
• Medical and psychological support for victims

Accountability Systems:

• Public database tracking settler violence incidents and prosecutions
• Financial penalties and settlement construction freezes following attacks
• Removal of unauthorized outposts linked to violence
• Sanctions against individuals and organizations supporting violent actors
• International monitoring and reporting mechanisms

De-escalation Initiatives

Immediate Conflict Reduction:

• Establishment of neutral buffer zones around flashpoint areas
• Coordinated patrols preventing settler incursions into Palestinian areas
• Communication channels between communities to prevent misunderstandings
• Rapid deployment of conflict resolution teams
• Media monitoring to counter incitement

Community Protection:

• Legal aid services for Palestinian victims
• Documentation and evidence collection support
• International accompaniment programs for vulnerable communities
• Emergency relocation assistance when needed
• Trauma counseling and psychosocial support

Long-Term Solutions

Political and Legal Framework

International Law Implementation: The fundamental challenge is that all Israeli settlements in the West Bank violate international law under the Fourth Geneva Convention. Comprehensive resolution requires addressing the occupation itself through a political process leading to a negotiated two-state solution based on pre-1967 borders with mutually agreed land swaps.

Accountability Architecture:

• International Criminal Court investigations into systematic settlement violence
• Universal jurisdiction mechanisms allowing prosecution in third countries
• Economic consequences for companies profiting from settlement enterprise
• Travel bans and asset freezes for perpetrators and enablers
• Reparations programs for victims of settler violence

Legal Reforms Within Israel:

• Equal application of law regardless of ethnicity or religion
• Civilian courts rather than military courts for Palestinian cases
• Independent oversight of security forces
• Abolition of laws creating separate legal systems for settlers and Palestinians
• Constitutional protections against discrimination

Structural Transformation

Settlement Policy Reversal: Genuine peace requires reversing settlement expansion. This involves freezing all construction in settlements, dismantling unauthorized outposts, compensating settlers willing to relocate, and ultimately withdrawing from most of the West Bank under any viable peace agreement. The current trajectory of 500,000+ settlers makes this increasingly difficult but not impossible.

Security Sector Reform:

• Clear rules of engagement prohibiting excessive force
• Consequences for military personnel enabling settler violence
• Separation of civilian law enforcement from military occupation duties
• International training on human rights and de-escalation
• Civilian oversight mechanisms with investigative powers

Economic Development: Sustainable peace requires Palestinian economic viability. This means removing restrictions on Palestinian movement and commerce, investing in infrastructure and job creation, ensuring fair access to natural resources including water, supporting Palestinian private sector development, and creating economic interdependence that incentivizes cooperation.

Reconciliation and Coexistence

Educational Initiatives:

• Curriculum reforms removing dehumanizing content from textbooks
• Joint Israeli-Palestinian educational programs where possible
• Holocaust and Nakba education promoting mutual understanding
• Peace education emphasizing shared humanity
• Exchange programs for youth when security permits

Civil Society Engagement:

• Support for Israeli-Palestinian peace movements
• Interfaith dialogue initiatives
• Joint economic projects creating mutual interests
• Cultural exchanges and people-to-people programs
• Women’s peace networks and youth coalitions

Narrative Transformation:

• Media literacy programs countering propaganda and incitement
• Platform for diverse voices including moderates and victims
• Historical truth and reconciliation processes
• Public acknowledgment of suffering on both sides
• Future-oriented vision of coexistence replacing zero-sum thinking

Regional and International Framework

Diplomatic Engagement:

• Renewed international peace process with credible incentives and consequences
• Regional integration frameworks (economic, security, environmental cooperation)
• Arab Peace Initiative implementation creating normalization incentives
• Great power cooperation rather than competition over Israeli-Palestinian issue
• UN peacekeeping or observer forces during transition periods

Economic Incentives:

• Marshall Plan-style investment contingent on peace progress
• Trade agreements rewarding cooperation and penalizing violations
• Regional development projects (water, energy, transportation) creating interdependence
• International guarantees of territorial integrity and security
• Reconstruction assistance for Gaza and development support for West Bank

Outlook

Pessimistic Scenario (Current Trajectory)

If current trends continue without significant intervention, the situation will likely deteriorate further. Settlement expansion continues consolidating Israeli control over the West Bank, making two-state solution increasingly unviable. Settler violence becomes more frequent and severe, with minimal accountability emboldening extremists. Palestinian frustration grows as hopes for statehood fade, potentially triggering another intifada or sustained violence. The international community issues statements but takes no meaningful action. Israel moves toward formal annexation of parts of the West Bank, triggering regional instability. Gaza remains devastated and blockaded, serving as ongoing source of tension.

This scenario leads to a permanent occupation regime requiring increasing violence to maintain, gradual ethnic cleansing through displacement, international isolation for Israel, regional instability potentially drawing in neighboring states, and the end of Israel’s democratic character as it maintains permanent control over millions of disenfranchised Palestinians.

Realistic Scenario (Muddle Through)

More likely is a continuation of the unstable status quo with periodic escalations. Settler violence continues at elevated levels with occasional high-profile arrests that don’t fundamentally change patterns. International pressure remains inconsistent, with some states imposing limited sanctions while others maintain business as usual. The Palestinian Authority becomes increasingly weak and illegitimate, unable to deliver statehood or security. Israeli politics remains dominated by pro-settlement forces with the peace camp marginalized. Periodic violence flares up and subsides without resolving underlying issues.

This scenario involves managed conflict rather than resolution, with all parties adapting to ongoing instability. The humanitarian situation in Palestinian territories gradually worsens. The two-state solution remains official international policy but becomes increasingly fictional. One-state reality emerges on the ground without anyone planning for it. Regional states pursue normalization with Israel despite lack of Palestinian resolution, weakening Palestinian leverage.

Optimistic Scenario (Negotiated Settlement)

Though difficult given current circumstances, a path to resolution exists. This requires political change in Israel bringing to power a government willing to negotiate seriously, Palestinian unity government representing both West Bank and Gaza, sustained international engagement with meaningful incentives and consequences, regional backing through Arab Peace Initiative implementation, and security guarantees acceptable to both sides.

Under this scenario, negotiations lead to Palestinian state in West Bank and Gaza with East Jerusalem as capital, security arrangements addressing Israeli concerns while respecting Palestinian sovereignty, compensation and limited right of return for Palestinian refugees, equal rights for all under international law, and economic development transforming living conditions.

This outcome requires extraordinary political courage, international support, public persuasion to overcome decades of mistrust, and probably a generation to fully implement. However, it remains the only viable alternative to permanent conflict.

Most Likely Outcome (5-10 Year Horizon)

The current trajectory suggests continued deterioration of the two-state framework toward a de facto one-state reality, with Israel exercising permanent control over all territory while denying equal rights to Palestinians. This creates an untenable situation that will eventually demand resolution, either through equal rights (binational democracy), formal apartheid, ethnic cleansing, or permanent violent suppression.

Settler violence will likely continue at high levels, serving as a tool of gradual displacement. International pressure will increase incrementally but remain insufficient to force change. The Palestinian Authority may collapse, creating a governance vacuum. Gaza will remain a separate, besieged entity. Regional dynamics (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey) will continue influencing the conflict. The situation remains a primary driver of regional instability and anti-Western sentiment.

Singapore’s Response and Impact

Current Position

Singapore has maintained a principled and consistent position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict based on international law and its foundational principles as a small, multiracial state:

Policy Stance:

• Support for two-state solution based on pre-1967 borders
• Recognition of Palestine as a state
• Condemnation of settlements as illegal under international law
• Balanced approach recognizing both Israeli security concerns and Palestinian rights
• Opposition to violence and terrorism from all parties

Recent Actions (2024-2025): In October 2024, Singapore imposed targeted sanctions and entry bans on four Israeli individuals for violence against Palestinians in the West Bank. This marked a significant diplomatic action, reflecting serious concern about settler violence escalation. The move aligned Singapore with international efforts to hold perpetrators accountable while avoiding broader economic sanctions that might undermine peace prospects.

Why Singapore’s Position Matters

Principled Foreign Policy: Singapore’s stance reflects its core belief that international law must apply equally to all nations regardless of size or power. As a small state, Singapore depends on the rules-based international order for its survival and prosperity. Selective application of international law threatens this framework. Singapore’s consistent support for Palestinian statehood and opposition to settlements demonstrates that principle matters more than short-term political expediency.

Multiracial Harmony: With significant Muslim, Jewish, and Christian populations, Singapore must carefully navigate issues that inflame religious tensions. The government’s balanced position helps maintain domestic harmony by showing it neither blindly supports one side nor ignores legitimate grievances. Singapore’s Muslims see their government supporting Palestinian rights, while the approach remains measured enough to avoid alienating other communities or appearing to support extremism.

Regional Leadership: As an ASEAN member and regional hub, Singapore’s voice carries weight. Its principled stance influences regional discussions and demonstrates that small states can take ethical positions on global issues. Singapore’s willingness to impose targeted sanctions shows ASEAN countries can take concrete actions beyond rhetoric.

Domestic Impact in Singapore

Community Relations: The Israeli-Palestinian conflict resonates emotionally within Singapore’s diverse population. Government policies aim to prevent imported conflicts from disrupting Singapore’s multiracial harmony. Public discussions and protests about the conflict are managed carefully to prevent polarization. Religious and community leaders play important roles in maintaining perspective and preventing tensions.

Economic Considerations: Singapore maintains trade relationships with both Israel and Arab states. Israel is a significant technology partner, while Gulf states are major investment partners and energy suppliers. Singapore’s balanced approach allows it to maintain these relationships while upholding principles. The targeted sanctions against individual settlers avoid disrupting broader economic ties while sending a clear message.

Strategic Balance: Singapore benefits from security cooperation with Israel, particularly in defense technology and counterterrorism. Simultaneously, Singapore needs strong relations with the Muslim-majority nations surrounding it and the broader Arab and Muslim world. The government’s nuanced position allows it to maintain strategic partnerships across this divide.

Limitations and Challenges

Limited Leverage: Singapore is a small city-state with limited ability to influence great power dynamics or regional conflicts. Its sanctions against four individuals, while symbolically important, have minimal practical impact on the broader situation. Singapore cannot force Israeli policy changes or Palestinian unity. Its role is primarily moral and diplomatic rather than coercive.

Economic Interdependence: Broader sanctions against Israel would damage Singapore’s economic interests and technology partnerships without achieving policy change. Singapore must balance principle with pragmatism, taking positions that reflect values without engaging in economically self-destructive virtue signaling.

Diplomatic Constraints: Singapore maintains close relationships with the United States, which provides security umbrella for the region and is Israel’s primary patron. Singapore also values relationships with China and regional powers. Taking strong positions on Israeli-Palestinian issues risks straining these relationships. Singapore navigates by being consistent and principled rather than inflammatory.

Future Considerations for Singapore

Evolving Global Dynamics: As the two-state solution becomes increasingly unviable, Singapore may need to reconsider its position. Supporting permanent occupation contradicts Singapore’s principles, but alternative frameworks (binational state, confederation, etc.) lack consensus. Singapore will need to adapt its position as facts on the ground evolve.

International Law Framework: Singapore should continue supporting International Criminal Court investigations and universal jurisdiction for settlement violence. As violations of international law become more systematic, Singapore’s voice in multilateral forums becomes more important. Working through UN, ASEAN, and other multilateral channels amplifies Singapore’s impact.

Regional Coordination: Singapore can work with ASEAN partners to develop common positions on settler violence and occupation. Collective action by regional states carries more weight than individual countries acting alone. Singapore’s diplomatic experience and convening power make it well-positioned for this coordination role.

Track Two Diplomacy: Given official peace process paralysis, unofficial dialogue becomes more important. Singapore could host or facilitate Israeli-Palestinian civil society exchanges, academic conferences, or business dialogues. As a neutral, prosperous location with both Jewish and Muslim communities, Singapore offers a unique venue for such engagement.

Long-Term Vision: Singapore should continue articulating a vision of peace based on equality, security, and dignity for both peoples. Small states often preserve principles and possibilities when great powers pursue short-term interests. Singapore’s consistent voice for two-state solution, however distant it seems, keeps alive the vision of negotiated peace and reminds the international community of unfinished business.

Conclusion

The December 2024 settler violence incidents represent symptoms of a deeper structural crisis that has developed over decades of occupation. Short-term security measures can reduce immediate violence, but sustainable resolution requires addressing root causes through political negotiation, accountability for violations, and a vision of coexistence acceptable to both peoples.

The current trajectory toward a one-state reality without equal rights is unsustainable and will eventually produce either democratic transformation or catastrophic violence. The international community, including small states like Singapore, has a responsibility to support peaceful resolution while the window remains open.

For Singapore specifically, the challenge is maintaining a principled position that reflects its values and interests while acknowledging its limited leverage. Singapore’s consistent support for international law, targeted actions against perpetrators, and vision of two-state solution contribute to keeping alive the possibility of peace even as the situation deteriorates.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains one of the world’s most intractable challenges, but history shows that seemingly impossible conflicts can be resolved when political will, international support, and changed circumstances align. Until that moment arrives, the responsibility of governments, civil society, and individuals is to reduce suffering, uphold principles, and preserve the possibility of a just peace.