Myanmar Election 2025

by | Dec 28, 2025 | Uncategorized | 0 comments

Executive Summary

Myanmar’s December 2025 election represents a critical juncture in Southeast Asian geopolitics, occurring five years after the military coup that plunged the nation into civil war. This heavily restricted electoral exercise, widely condemned as illegitimate, has significant implications for regional stability, humanitarian concerns, and Singapore’s strategic interests in ASEAN.

What’s Happening

The first phase of voting is taking place in 102 townships Wikipedia, including areas in major cities like Yangon, Mandalay, and the capital Naypyidaw. Two additional phases are scheduled for January 11 and January 25, 2026 Wikipedia.

Why It’s Controversial

This election is widely being dismissed as illegitimate for several reasons:

  • Excluded parties: Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) and 39 other parties were dissolved in March 2023 Wikipedia. The NLD had won landslide victories in both 2015 and 2020.
  • Limited participation: Elections cannot happen in almost one in five lower house constituencies Wikipedia due to the ongoing civil war, and nearly 40 percent of townships may not participate at all Foreign Policy.
  • Harsh crackdowns: Dozens have been detained under an “election protection law” for expressing dissent, with some receiving sentences between 42 and 49 years for activities like hanging anti-election posters UN News.
  • Predetermined outcome: The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) is expected to win easily, with critics saying power will remain in the hands of military leader Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing ABC News.

International Response

The UN, Western governments, and human rights organizations have condemned the election as neither free nor fair. However, China and Russia have endorsed it, with Thailand planning to send observers despite regional divisions within ASEAN.

The election appears designed to provide a veneer of legitimacy to military rule rather than restore genuine democracy to Myanmar.

Case Study: A Manufactured Electoral Process

Background Context

On February 1, 2021, Myanmar’s military (Tatmadaw) staged a coup, overthrowing the democratically elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD). The junta justified the seizure of power by alleging widespread voter fraud in the 2020 elections, which the NLD had won in a landslide. This coup ended a decade-long democratic transition and triggered nationwide resistance that evolved into full-scale civil war.

The 2025 Election Framework

Structural Design:

  • Three-phase voting process: December 28, 2025; January 11, 2026; January 25, 2026
  • Coverage limited to 102 townships in junta-controlled areas
  • Nearly 40% of constituencies excluded due to conflict zones
  • New electronic voting machines that prevent write-in candidates or spoiled ballots

Key Players Excluded:

  • Aung San Suu Kyi: Serving 27 years in prison on charges widely viewed as politically motivated
  • National League for Democracy: Dissolved in March 2023 along with 39 other parties
  • 90% of parties from the 2020 election barred from participating

Predetermined Outcome: The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) faces minimal opposition and is expected to emerge as the dominant political force, effectively rebranding military rule under a civilian facade.

Mechanisms of Control

Legal Repression: The junta implemented an “election protection law” that criminalizes dissent, protest, or criticism of the electoral process. Over 200 people face prosecution under this draconian legislation, with sentences ranging from 42 to 49 years for activities as minor as hanging anti-election posters.

Military Offensive: In the months preceding the vote, the Tatmadaw launched intensive military operations to reclaim territory from ethnic armed organizations and pro-democracy People’s Defence Forces. This campaign created displacement, casualties, and an environment of fear in contested areas.

Media Control: Independent media has been suppressed, opposition voices silenced, and the information environment tightly controlled to prevent mobilization against the election.

Civil War Context

Myanmar remains fractured by armed conflict:

  • Ethnic minority armies control significant territory along border regions
  • Pro-democracy militias operate in central Myanmar
  • Millions displaced by fighting and airstrikes
  • Humanitarian crisis with restricted aid access

The election cannot occur in rebel-held areas, and many citizens in junta-controlled zones face intimidation or have fled violence, making genuine participation impossible.

Outlook: Potential Scenarios and Trajectories

Short-term (6-12 months)

Scenario 1: Consolidated Military Rule (Most Likely) The USDP secures an overwhelming majority, allowing the junta to claim democratic legitimacy while maintaining military control. General Min Aung Hlaing either continues as junta chief or transitions to a presidential or prime ministerial role, replicating patterns from Myanmar’s previous military governments.

Implications:

  • Continued international isolation from Western nations
  • Intensified civil war as opposition groups reject the electoral outcome
  • Further economic deterioration and humanitarian crisis
  • Potential for increased refugee flows to neighboring countries

Scenario 2: Partial International Recognition China, Russia, Thailand, and potentially other nations within ASEAN grant tacit or explicit recognition to the election results, creating a split in international response.

Implications:

  • Deepened geopolitical divisions over Myanmar
  • ASEAN paralysis on Myanmar policy continues
  • Economic lifelines for the junta through regional trade
  • Erosion of international norms regarding democratic governance

Medium-term (1-3 years)

Political Trajectory: The post-election period will likely see the junta attempting to normalize its rule through:

  • Constitutional amendments to entrench military power
  • Selective political liberalization in secure areas
  • Continued suppression of resistance movements
  • Pursuit of international rehabilitation

Conflict Dynamics: The civil war is unlikely to end soon. Resistance forces have shown resilience, and ethnic armed organizations maintain territorial control. A protracted low-intensity conflict will continue draining resources and preventing reconstruction.

Economic Challenges: Myanmar faces severe economic headwinds including:

  • Continued Western sanctions
  • Capital flight and investment withdrawal
  • Currency instability and inflation
  • Disrupted supply chains due to conflict
  • Brain drain as educated professionals flee

Long-term (3-5+ years)

Pathways Forward:

Path A – Entrenched Authoritarianism: The military successfully consolidates power, creates puppet civilian institutions, and maintains control through repression. Myanmar becomes increasingly isolated from the West while deepening ties with China and Russia.

Path B – Negotiated Settlement: Growing military stalemate, economic pressure, and ASEAN mediation eventually push parties toward negotiations. This would require significant compromises from all sides and international guarantees.

Path C – Regime Fragmentation: Internal military divisions, economic collapse, or battlefield setbacks could fracture the junta, potentially creating opportunities for political transition but also risks of further chaos.

Solutions: Policy Options and Interventions

International Community Response

Diplomatic Engagement:

  1. Non-recognition of election results: The international community should maintain a unified stance rejecting the election’s legitimacy
  2. Support for ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus: Though largely unimplemented, this remains the only regional framework for resolution
  3. Inclusive dialogue platforms: Support efforts to bring together ethnic armed organizations, pro-democracy forces, and potential reform-minded military figures

Economic Measures:

  1. Targeted sanctions: Continue and expand sanctions on military leaders, military-owned enterprises, and revenue sources like natural gas
  2. Support for alternative economies: Provide assistance to resistance-controlled areas to build governance capacity
  3. Trade restrictions: Limit access to weapons, dual-use technologies, and financial systems

Humanitarian Action:

  1. Cross-border assistance: Support humanitarian aid delivery through all available channels, including non-state actors in liberated areas
  2. Refugee support: Increase assistance to neighboring countries hosting Myanmar refugees
  3. Documentation of atrocities: Support evidence collection for future accountability mechanisms

Regional Actors

ASEAN:

  • Move beyond the non-interference principle to protect regional stability
  • Consider suspending Myanmar’s participation in ASEAN meetings beyond the current ambassador-level exclusion
  • Coordinate humanitarian access through ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance

China:

  • Leverage economic influence to encourage junta restraint and genuine dialogue
  • Balance support for stability with concerns about spillover effects along the border
  • Mediate between ethnic armed organizations along its border and the central government

India:

  • Manage border security concerns while providing humanitarian assistance
  • Balance pragmatic engagement with democratic values
  • Coordinate with ASEAN on refugee management

Civil Society and Pro-Democracy Forces

Unity Building:

  • Strengthen the National Unity Government (parallel government formed by ousted legislators)
  • Improve coordination between ethnic armed organizations and pro-democracy militias
  • Develop inclusive political visions that address ethnic minority concerns
  • Build administrative capacity in resistance-controlled areas

International Advocacy:

  • Maintain global awareness of Myanmar’s crisis
  • Counter junta propaganda and document human rights abuses
  • Build coalitions with international human rights organizations

Impact on Singapore

Strategic and Security Implications

ASEAN Cohesion Challenges: Myanmar’s crisis represents the most significant test of ASEAN unity and relevance. Singapore has historically supported ASEAN consensus and non-interference, but the Myanmar situation exposes limitations of this approach. The failure to implement the Five-Point Consensus undermines ASEAN credibility, with Singapore caught between principle and pragmatism.

Precedent Setting: If the junta successfully legitimizes its rule through this election, it sets a dangerous precedent for military intervention in ASEAN states. This threatens Singapore’s core interest in regional stability governed by international law and democratic norms.

Refugee and Migration Pressures: While Singapore hasn’t experienced significant direct refugee flows from Myanmar, regional instability affects ASEAN neighbors like Thailand, Malaysia, and Bangladesh. Large-scale displacement could create broader regional migration pressures affecting Singapore indirectly.

Economic Considerations

Trade and Investment: Singapore has economic ties with Myanmar, though these have declined since the coup. Singapore’s position as a regional financial hub means some transactions and investments flow through Singapore-based entities.

Potential Impacts:

  • Risk of reputational damage if Singapore-linked businesses are seen as supporting the junta
  • Need to balance commercial interests with human rights concerns
  • Opportunities in post-conflict reconstruction if political transition eventually occurs

Supply Chain Disruptions: Myanmar’s instability affects regional supply chains, particularly in agriculture, natural resources, and manufacturing. While Singapore’s direct exposure is limited, prolonged conflict creates unpredictability in the Southeast Asian economic environment.

Diplomatic Positioning

Balancing Act: Singapore faces difficult choices in navigating Myanmar policy:

  1. Within ASEAN: Singapore must work with partners holding diverse views, from Thailand’s pragmatic engagement to more critical positions from other members. Singapore’s approach has been to support ASEAN consensus while advocating for meaningful progress on the Five-Point Consensus.
  2. With Western Partners: Singapore maintains strong relationships with the United States, European Union, and other Western democracies that have imposed sanctions on Myanmar. Singapore must coordinate its position without compromising ASEAN solidarity.
  3. With China: China’s support for Myanmar’s junta complicates regional dynamics. Singapore seeks to maintain good relations with China while preserving ASEAN centrality and its own strategic autonomy.

Policy Recommendations for Singapore:

Maintain Principled Non-Recognition: Singapore should not recognize the election results as legitimate and should clearly communicate this position. This upholds democratic norms without requiring unilateral sanctions that could undermine ASEAN unity.

Support Humanitarian Access: Singapore can provide humanitarian assistance through multilateral channels and support ASEAN mechanisms for aid delivery. This addresses suffering without political recognition of the junta.

Engage Multiple Stakeholders: Beyond official channels, Singapore should maintain contact with ethnic organizations, civil society, and the National Unity Government. This preserves options for future engagement and demonstrates commitment to Myanmar’s democratic future.

Strengthen Regional Mechanisms: Singapore should work within ASEAN to enhance the organization’s crisis response capabilities, potentially through reforms that allow more flexible responses to member state instability without abandoning core principles entirely.

Economic Due Diligence: Singapore-based companies and financial institutions should be encouraged to conduct thorough due diligence on Myanmar-related activities to avoid inadvertently supporting military enterprises or sanctions evasion.

Human Security Dimensions

Myanmar Nationals in Singapore: Singapore hosts a significant Myanmar community, including workers, students, and long-term residents. Many oppose the coup and support pro-democracy movements. Singapore must balance:

  • Security concerns about potential conflict between pro-junta and pro-democracy groups
  • Human rights considerations for those who cannot safely return
  • Immigration policy consistency

Regional Stability: Myanmar’s crisis contributes to broader challenges including:

  • Transnational crime networks exploiting instability
  • Drug trafficking routes through conflict zones
  • Cybercrime operations based in lawless areas
  • Potential terrorism concerns in ungoverned spaces

These issues affect Singapore’s security environment and require regional cooperation to address.

Conclusion

The December 2025 Myanmar election is not a step toward democracy but rather an attempt to legitimize authoritarian rule through a facade of democratic process. The international community, ASEAN, and especially Singapore face complex choices in responding to this crisis.

For Singapore, the priorities should be:

  1. Upholding democratic principles and the rule of law in the region
  2. Supporting ASEAN unity while pushing for meaningful action on Myanmar
  3. Providing humanitarian assistance to affected populations
  4. Maintaining engagement with diverse stakeholders for long-term stability
  5. Protecting Singapore’s interests while acting as a responsible regional actor

The Myanmar crisis will not be resolved quickly, but the response to this election will shape regional norms, ASEAN’s relevance, and the trajectory of Southeast Asian governance for years to come. Singapore’s approach must balance realism about power dynamics with unwavering commitment to the principles that underpin regional peace and prosperity.