US Military Action in Venezuela

by | Jan 3, 2026 | Uncategorized | 0 comments

Executive Summary

In an unprecedented military operation on January 3, 2026, United States forces conducted extensive airstrikes across Venezuela and captured President Nicolás Maduro, who was subsequently flown out of the country to face narcoterrorism charges in New York. President Donald Trump announced the US will “run” Venezuela until a safe political transition occurs. This extraordinary intervention—the largest US military operation in Latin America since the 1989 Panama invasion—has triggered global condemnation and raises significant implications for Singapore across diplomatic, economic, and strategic dimensions.

What Happened

The Military Operation

US forces launched coordinated strikes beginning around 2:00 AM local time on January 3, targeting multiple military installations across northern Venezuela, including Fort Tiuna (Venezuela’s largest military complex), La Carlota Airbase, and La Guaira port. The operation involved overwhelming air, land, and sea power, described by Trump as an assault “like people have not seen since World War II.” Delta Force operatives captured Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, who were transported out of the country and now face federal charges dating back to 2020.

Legal and Political Context

The strikes followed months of escalating US pressure, including a naval blockade, designation of Venezuelan drug cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, and strikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels in the Caribbean. However, the legal basis remains unclear—Trump declined to specify whether congressional approval was sought, with reports indicating Congressional leadership was only briefed after the operation commenced.

Current Situation

Venezuela’s political future remains uncertain. Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yván Gil claims Maduro remains the constitutional president and demands his immediate return. Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez’s whereabouts are disputed, with reports suggesting she may have fled to Russia. The Venezuelan military has mobilized, though its defense minister was reportedly killed during the strikes. Opposition leader María Corina Machado, speaking from exile, welcomed Maduro’s capture as a path to justice.

Global Reactions

Widespread Condemnation

The international response has been overwhelmingly critical:

Latin America: Brazil’s President Lula called the action an “unacceptable line” violating international law. Colombia deployed forces to its Venezuelan border and called for emergency UN Security Council meetings. Mexico, Chile, Cuba, and other regional powers condemned the strikes as violations of sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Major Powers: China expressed being “deeply shocked” and strongly condemned what it termed “hegemonic acts” seriously violating international law and Venezuela’s sovereignty. Russia denounced an “act of armed aggression” and called for Venezuela’s right to determine its own destiny. Iran strongly condemned the “flagrant violation” of national sovereignty.

Europe: The European Union emphasized that “principles of international law and the UN Charter must be respected” while noting Maduro lacks legitimacy. France stated the operation violates the principle of not resorting to force that underpins international law. Britain was “not involved in any way” but called for upholding international law.

Southeast Asia: Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry emphasized the importance of respecting international law and UN Charter principles while monitoring citizen safety.

Calls for UN Security Council Action

Multiple countries, including Venezuela, Russia, Colombia, and Cuba, have called for emergency UN Security Council meetings to address what they describe as armed aggression and a serious threat to regional peace and security.

Impact on Singapore

1. Diplomatic and Foreign Policy Implications

Principles at Stake

The Venezuelan intervention directly challenges core principles that Singapore has consistently championed at the United Nations:

  • Sovereign equality and territorial integrity: Singapore has repeatedly emphasized that the UN Charter’s principles—including sovereign equality, territorial integrity, and non-interference—are especially vital for small states. The unilateral military action against a sovereign nation to remove its head of state contradicts these foundational principles.
  • Peaceful settlement of disputes: In numerous UN Security Council statements, Singapore has stressed that international law and the UN Charter must be upheld “at all times” and “under all circumstances.” The Venezuelan operation represents exactly the kind of “unilateral action that ignores international law” that Singapore warned against in its January 2020 UNSC statement.
  • International law as the bedrock: Singapore’s permanent representative has consistently stated that respect for international law is “absolutely non-negotiable” and that “selective approach to implementing international law” encourages a culture of non-compliance that weakens the multilateral system.

Singapore’s Dilemma

Singapore faces a complex diplomatic challenge. While officially silent thus far, Singapore will likely need to balance several considerations:

  • Maintaining its principled stance on international law and sovereignty
  • Managing its close security and economic relationship with the United States
  • Preserving regional solidarity within ASEAN
  • Protecting its interests as a small state in an increasingly multipolar world

Historical precedent suggests Singapore will likely emphasize respect for the UN Charter and international law while calling for peaceful resolution and avoiding direct condemnation of any specific party—similar to its approach during other major international crises.

Potential ASEAN Response

As ASEAN chair rotates and regional coordination proceeds, Singapore may work with fellow member states to issue a joint statement emphasizing:

  • Respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity
  • The importance of adherence to international law
  • The need for peaceful dialogue and de-escalation
  • Concern for regional and global implications

2. Economic and Energy Security Impact

Limited Direct Oil Impact

The immediate impact on Singapore’s energy security appears manageable but warrants monitoring:

  • Venezuelan production is small but specialized: Venezuela produces approximately 1.1 million barrels per day (about 1% of global trade), with over 67% being heavy crude primarily exported to China and India—not Singapore.
  • Market oversupply cushions impact: Current global oil oversupply means markets are less concerned about Venezuelan supply disruptions. Oil prices showed only modest movement following the strikes.
  • Unique crude quality concerns: Heavy Venezuelan crude cannot be easily replaced by lighter grades, which could create upward pressure on refined product pricing even if overall supply remains adequate.

Expert opinion from Vandana Hari, CEO of Singapore-based Vanda Insights, suggests “immediate implications for the oil market are minimal—not much beyond another uptick in the Venezuela risk premium.”

Singapore’s Energy Import Vulnerability

Singapore imports virtually all its energy needs, with natural gas providing the majority of electricity generation. While Singapore doesn’t rely on Venezuelan oil, broader market disruptions could affect:

  • Regional fuel prices and inflation
  • Singapore’s role as Asia’s premier oil trading and refining hub
  • Jurong Island’s operations as Southeast Asia’s LNG processing center (14.2 MTPA capacity)

Indirect Economic Effects

  • Trade route uncertainty: Any escalation affecting Caribbean shipping lanes or Latin American stability could impact global trade flows
  • Geopolitical risk premium: Increased volatility in oil markets affects Singapore’s extensive oil trading and storage operations
  • Investment climate: The operation sets a precedent that could affect risk calculations for international businesses

3. Strategic and Security Considerations

Precedent for Small States

The Venezuelan intervention establishes a concerning precedent for small nations like Singapore:

  • Erosion of sovereignty norms: If major powers can unilaterally remove foreign leaders through military force without clear international legal backing, it undermines protections that small states rely upon for security.
  • Rules-based order under pressure: Singapore’s security rests heavily on a functioning rules-based international order. Actions that bypass or undermine this order—particularly by major powers—represent strategic threats regardless of specific circumstances.

Regional Security Implications

  • US military posture: The operation demonstrates US willingness to conduct major military operations under the current administration. This could have implications for regional security dynamics in Asia-Pacific.
  • Great power competition: China and Russia’s strong condemnations, alongside European concerns, highlight deepening divisions between major powers. Singapore must navigate these tensions carefully as a non-aligned trading nation.
  • Maritime security: As a major maritime hub dependent on free navigation and international law, Singapore watches carefully when norms around sovereignty and intervention evolve.

Defense of International Law

Singapore has participated in international maritime security operations (Operation Prosperity Guardian in the Red Sea) when they align with upholding international law and freedom of navigation. However, this Venezuelan intervention represents a different category—unilateral regime change operation—that conflicts with Singapore’s consistently stated principles.

4. Impact on Singaporean Citizens and Venezuelan Community

Citizens in Venezuela

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs maintains travel advisories for Venezuela and encourages Singaporeans abroad to register via the eRegister system for emergency contact. Given the military situation:

  • Singaporeans in Venezuela should contact the nearest Singapore mission or MFA Duty Office (+65 6379 8800)
  • The security situation remains fluid with US military aircraft still operating and Venezuelan forces mobilized
  • Commercial flights have been disrupted with FAA prohibiting US aircraft from Venezuelan airspace

Venezuelan Community in Singapore

While small in number (approximately 2,935 Venezuelan visitors to Singapore were recorded in 2018), Venezuelans in Singapore may be affected by:

  • Potential passport and consular service disruptions from the Venezuelan Embassy in Singapore
  • Uncertainty about their country’s political future and potential impacts on their status
  • Family concerns given the ongoing military operations and political instability

Venezuelan citizens typically enjoy visa-free entry to Singapore for stays up to 30 days, a policy unlikely to change immediately but potentially subject to review depending on how the situation evolves.

5. UN Security Council Dynamics

Singapore’s UN Engagement

As a former UN Security Council member (2001-2002) and active participant in UN deliberations, Singapore will watch the Security Council response carefully. The Venezuelan crisis will likely:

  • Test the Council’s unity and effectiveness
  • Highlight divisions between permanent members
  • Create opportunities for middle powers to shape dialogue
  • Reinforce calls for Security Council reform

Implications for Multilateralism

Singapore has consistently advocated for UN reform to ensure the organization remains relevant and effective. This crisis exemplifies the challenges:

  • Permanent members are unlikely to reach consensus given US involvement and Russian/Chinese opposition
  • The inability of the Security Council to act cohesively undermines its credibility
  • Small states like Singapore face limited influence when major powers act unilaterally

Broader Context: Southeast Asian Perspective

ASEAN’s Energy Transition

Southeast Asian nations collectively face growing energy demand—projected to increase 60% by 2040—while domestic production declines. The Venezuelan situation adds complexity to energy security planning:

  • The region’s crude oil trade deficit expanded 13.68% in 2023 to 134.22 million tons
  • No ASEAN member state remains a net oil exporter
  • Import dependency is increasing across the region

Regional Solidarity Principles

ASEAN’s foundational principles include non-interference in internal affairs and peaceful settlement of disputes. The Venezuelan intervention challenges these norms on a global scale, potentially emboldening interventionist approaches that could affect Southeast Asian nations.

Singapore’s Hub Status

Singapore’s role as Southeast Asia’s:

  • Premier financial center
  • Leading oil trading and refining hub
  • International maritime and aviation crossroads
  • Regional diplomatic player

…means developments affecting global trade, energy markets, and international law have outsized relevance for Singapore’s prosperity and security.

What Singapore Might Do

Based on Singapore’s historical approach to similar international crises, likely responses include:

Public Diplomacy

  • Measured statements emphasizing international law and UN Charter principles
  • Calls for de-escalation and peaceful dialogue
  • Coordination with ASEAN partners on regional messaging
  • Avoiding direct confrontation with major powers while maintaining principles

Practical Measures

  • Monitoring citizen safety and providing consular support as needed
  • Assessing economic and energy market impacts through relevant agencies
  • Engaging diplomatically through bilateral and multilateral channels
  • Contributing to UN discussions on international peace and security

Long-term Strategic Positioning

  • Continuing to advocate for rules-based international order
  • Strengthening energy security and supply diversification
  • Maintaining balanced relationships with all major powers
  • Supporting UN reform and multilateral institutions

Conclusion

The US military intervention in Venezuela represents a watershed moment in international relations with significant implications for Singapore. While direct economic impacts appear limited due to minimal energy trade between the two nations, the broader diplomatic, legal, and strategic consequences are substantial.

For Singapore—a small state whose security and prosperity depend on a functioning rules-based international order—the Venezuelan operation raises fundamental questions about sovereignty, international law, and the future of multilateralism. The precedent of unilateral military action to remove a foreign leader, regardless of the specific circumstances, undermines norms that protect small nations.

As the situation continues to unfold, Singapore will likely navigate these complex waters with its characteristic diplomacy: principled in defending international law, pragmatic in managing great power relationships, and collaborative in seeking regional consensus. The crisis underscores why Singapore has consistently invested in multilateral institutions, championed international law, and worked to maintain a diversified network of partnerships across the global community.

The coming days and weeks will reveal whether the international community can find common ground in addressing this unprecedented situation, or whether it marks another step in the erosion of the post-World War II international order. For Singapore, much depends on the answer to that question.

Analysis based on developments as of January 4, 2026. The situation remains fluid and this assessment may need updating as events unfold.