Executive Summary
On January 3, 2026, the United States conducted a large-scale military strike on Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. This unprecedented action has triggered global condemnation, raised fundamental questions about international law, and created significant geopolitical and economic ripple effects that will impact nations worldwide, including Singapore.
The Crisis Unfolds
What Happened
In the early hours of January 3, 2026, US forces launched Operation Absolute Resolve, striking multiple military and civilian targets across Venezuela. President Trump announced that Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores had been captured and flown to the USS Iwo Jima, with plans to transfer them to New York to face narco-terrorism charges. The operation targeted key military installations including the Fuerte Tiuna military complex, as well as locations in Miranda, Aragua, and La Guaira states.
The Trump administration justified the action by designating Venezuela as a “Foreign Terrorist Organization” in December 2025, citing alleged drug trafficking, terrorism, and human trafficking. This designation was used to bypass congressional approval for military action. Trump stated the US would “run” Venezuela temporarily until a “safe transition” could be established.
Immediate Impact
Venezuelan officials reported casualties among military personnel and civilians, though exact numbers remain unclear. The operation follows months of escalating US actions, including a naval blockade announced in December 2025 and over 35 boat strikes in the Caribbean and Pacific that killed at least 115 people since September 2025.
Main Concerns
1. Violation of International Law
The intervention represents a flagrant violation of fundamental principles of international law:
UN Charter Violations: Article 2(4) of the UN Charter explicitly prohibits “the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state.” The US action lacks UN Security Council authorization, making it an illegal use of force under international law.
No Legal Justification: The operation cannot be justified under recognized exceptions to the prohibition on force. It was not an act of self-defense responding to an armed attack on the US, nor was it authorized by the Security Council under Chapter VII. The designation of Venezuela as a terrorist organization does not create a legal basis for military intervention.
Erosion of the Rules-Based Order: As German politician Roderich Kiesewetter stated, the action represents an abandonment of the rules-based international order that has governed relations since 1945. It signals a return to “spheres of influence” thinking where “the law of force rules, not international law.”
Comparison to Panama: Legal experts have compared this to the 1989 US invasion of Panama that resulted in General Manuel Noriega’s capture. However, international legal scholars at the time concluded that operation also violated international law, setting a troubling precedent.
2. Geopolitical Destabilization
Regional Security Threats: Colombia has deployed military forces to its Venezuelan border in anticipation of a massive refugee crisis. The region faces potential humanitarian catastrophe, with millions potentially displaced by ongoing instability.
Great Power Competition: The intervention has deepened US tensions with China, Russia, and Iran, all of whom have condemned the action. Russia called for Venezuela’s “right to determine its own destiny without destructive military interference,” while Iran’s Supreme Leader characterized it as an attempt to forcibly impose US will on a sovereign nation.
Precedent for Future Interventions: The operation signals to other powerful states that unilateral military action to remove heads of state is acceptable policy. As Senator Andy Kim noted, this “sends a horrible signal to other leaders across the globe that targeting a head of state is acceptable.”
3. Energy Market Disruption
Venezuelan Oil Production: Venezuela produces approximately 1.1 million barrels per day, mainly heavy crude that is difficult to replace. While this represents only about 1% of global oil supply, the quality is unique, with over 67% classified as heavy crude.
Market Impact: Oil market analysts initially suggested limited price impact due to global oversupply. However, the potential for prolonged instability and complete disruption of Venezuelan production could create significant price volatility. A violent overthrow could seriously disrupt output, undermining Trump’s stated goal of keeping gasoline prices low.
China and India Exposure: Most Venezuelan oil exports go to China (approximately 85%) and India. Chinese refiners have relied on discounted Venezuelan crude to weather economic downturns and sluggish fuel demand.
4. Humanitarian Crisis
Civilian Casualties: The Venezuelan government reported deaths among military personnel and innocent civilians. The full toll remains unclear, with information constrained by the chaotic situation on the ground.
Refugee Flows: Regional neighbors, particularly Colombia, Brazil, and Caribbean nations, face the prospect of massive refugee influxes. Colombia has already activated security forces along the border.
Internal Instability: With no clear successor and the US stating it will “run” Venezuela temporarily, the country faces a dangerous power vacuum. Competition among factions could lead to civil conflict.
5. Legitimacy and Democratic Concerns
Opposition Divided: Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado supported the intervention, stating Maduro had refused a “negotiated solution.” However, many Venezuelan civil society groups and international observers question whether regime change imposed by foreign military force can establish legitimate democratic governance.
Electoral Questions: While Maduro’s 2024 election was widely criticized as fraudulent, the question remains whether external military intervention is the appropriate mechanism for addressing electoral fraud and authoritarian governance.
Key Challenges
For the International Community
UN Security Council Paralysis: Russia and China are certain to block any Security Council resolution condemning the US action, preventing unified international response. This demonstrates the Council’s inability to address major power violations of international law.
Precedent Setting: If the international community cannot effectively respond to this violation of sovereignty, it weakens the entire framework of international law. Future interventions by other major powers become more likely.
Selective Enforcement: The international legal order already suffers from perceptions of selective application. This action reinforces the view that powerful states operate under different rules than weaker ones.
For Latin America
Regional Sovereignty: Latin American nations face the question of whether any government in the hemisphere can be secure from US military intervention if Washington deems it necessary. Brazil’s President Lula called the action “a grave affront to Venezuela’s sovereignty and an extremely dangerous precedent.”
Migration Management: Regional countries must prepare for potential mass migration from Venezuela while their resources are already strained. Colombia, Brazil, Trinidad and Tobago, and other neighbors face immediate pressures.
Economic Spillover: Regional economies will feel impacts from Venezuela’s disruption, including energy market volatility, trade disruptions, and the costs of humanitarian response.
For Global Energy Markets
Supply Uncertainty: While Venezuela’s current production is modest, the uncertainty about future production and export creates market volatility. The potential for complete shutdown of Venezuelan oil production could remove 1 million barrels per day from global markets.
Sanctions Complications: It remains unclear how US sanctions on Venezuelan oil will be affected by the intervention. Companies involved in Venezuelan oil trade face heightened legal and reputational risks.
Alternative Supplier Scramble: Chinese and Indian refiners who depend on Venezuelan heavy crude will need to source alternatives, potentially driving up prices for specific grades and creating market distortions.
Proposed Solutions
Immediate Term (0-3 months)
UN Emergency Session: The UN General Assembly should convene an emergency special session under the “Uniting for Peace” resolution to address the crisis. While not binding, such a session could provide a forum for international consensus and pressure for de-escalation.
International Mediation: Neutral countries such as Spain (which has offered to mediate), Switzerland, or Norway should facilitate dialogue between the US and Venezuelan stakeholders to establish a transition framework that includes:
- Immediate ceasefire and withdrawal of US forces
- International monitoring of humanitarian situation
- Roadmap for free and fair elections under international supervision
Humanitarian Corridor: The international community should establish humanitarian corridors to ensure civilian access to food, medicine, and essential services. The Red Cross and UN humanitarian agencies should be given unrestricted access.
Regional Coordination: CELAC (Community of Latin American and Caribbean States) or OAS should coordinate regional response, including:
- Burden-sharing for refugee absorption
- Joint monitoring of human rights situation
- Economic support mechanisms for affected neighbors
Medium Term (3-12 months)
Transitional Government: An internationally-supervised transitional government should be established through negotiation, including:
- Representatives from diverse Venezuelan political factions
- International observers from UN, OAS, and EU
- Clear timeline for free elections (12-18 months)
- Guarantees for rule of law and human rights protection
Oil Production Stabilization: International coordination to stabilize Venezuelan oil production through:
- Technical assistance from neutral international oil companies
- Revenue transparency mechanisms
- Proceeds directed to humanitarian relief and reconstruction
- Gradual reintegration into international oil markets
Legal Accountability: International legal mechanisms should be explored to:
- Document violations of international law
- Establish precedent against unilateral intervention
- Create deterrents for future violations
- Provide reparations framework for victims
Economic Reconstruction: International financial institutions should prepare reconstruction assistance contingent on:
- Democratic governance establishment
- Anti-corruption mechanisms
- Economic reform program
- Debt restructuring negotiations
Long Term (1-3 years)
Strengthening International Law: The international community must address the erosion of legal norms through:
- Reform of UN Security Council veto system to prevent major power impunity
- Strengthened regional security frameworks (OAS, UNASUR)
- Enhanced International Criminal Court jurisdiction
- Development of more robust enforcement mechanisms
Regional Security Architecture: Latin American nations should develop stronger collective security arrangements that:
- Guarantee sovereignty and non-intervention
- Provide collective response to humanitarian crises
- Establish early warning systems for political instability
- Create mechanisms for democratic backsliding response
Global Energy Security: Diversification of energy supply chains to reduce vulnerability to political disruptions through:
- Investment in alternative energy sources
- Strategic petroleum reserves enhancement
- Diversified supplier relationships
- Regional energy cooperation agreements
Singapore’s Specific Concerns and Impact
Direct Economic Impact
Oil Refining Sector: Singapore is one of the world’s top three export refining centers, with oil industry comprising 5% of GDP. The country exported 68.1 million tonnes of refined oil in 2007 and hosts major refinery operations from Shell, ExxonMobil, and Singapore Refining Company (SRC).
Transshipment Hub Role: Singapore and Malaysia have historically served as transshipment and blending hubs for Venezuelan crude destined for Asian markets, particularly China. Venezuelan oil has been blended with other grades in facilities around Singapore and Malaysia to facilitate export to Chinese independent refiners who lack specialized refining capacity for Venezuelan heavy crude.
Trading Hub Status: Singapore is the pricing center and leading oil trading hub in Asia. Market volatility from the Venezuela crisis will impact trading activities, with potential for both increased trading volumes (due to volatility) and reduced liquidity (due to uncertainty).
Limited Direct Imports: According to UN COMTRADE data, Singapore’s direct imports of Venezuelan petroleum oils were US$0 in 2021, suggesting Singapore’s role is primarily as a refining and trading hub rather than a direct consumer of Venezuelan crude.
Indirect Economic Concerns
Chinese Demand Impact: China is Singapore’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade of approximately 175 billion SGD in 2022. Disruption to Chinese refiners’ access to Venezuelan crude could affect Chinese industrial production and, consequently, Sino-Singapore trade flows.
Regional Stability: Venezuela crisis impacts regional stability in Latin America, affecting Singapore’s trade and investment relationships with the region. Singapore has free trade agreements covering the ASEAN network and maintains growing economic ties throughout Latin America.
Energy Security: While Singapore does not directly depend on Venezuelan oil, global energy market disruption could affect prices Singapore pays for crude oil imports needed for its refining operations. Singapore imports 90% of its food supply and essentially all of its energy, making it vulnerable to global price shocks.
Geopolitical Implications for Singapore
Rules-Based Order Erosion: Singapore has consistently championed the rules-based international order as essential protection for small states. Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan has repeatedly emphasized that “international law is the only reliable defense for small states.” The Venezuela intervention undermines this principle.
US-China Tensions: Singapore maintains carefully balanced relationships with both the US (its largest foreign investor in manufacturing) and China (its largest trading partner). The Venezuela crisis exacerbates US-China tensions, making Singapore’s balancing act more difficult.
ASEAN Unity: Singapore should work through ASEAN to develop a unified response emphasizing:
- Respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity
- Peaceful resolution of disputes
- Importance of UN Charter principles
- Concerns about precedent for intervention in sovereign states
Small State Vulnerability: The intervention demonstrates that even internationally recognized sovereign governments can be overthrown by major power military action. This creates anxiety among small states like Singapore about their own security.
Recommended Singapore Response
Diplomatic Approach:
- Issue Formal Statement: Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs should issue a statement:
- Expressing concern about the situation in Venezuela
- Emphasizing the importance of respecting international law and the UN Charter
- Calling for peaceful resolution and respect for Venezuelan sovereignty
- Offering support for multilateral mediation efforts
- Noting Singapore’s interest in regional stability and rules-based order
- ASEAN Coordination: Work with ASEAN partners to develop unified response:
- Propose ASEAN ministerial statement on importance of sovereignty
- Coordinate with like-minded ASEAN members (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand)
- Use ASEAN Regional Forum to raise concerns about intervention precedent
- UN Engagement: Support UN-based responses:
- Support calls for emergency Security Council or General Assembly sessions
- Back international mediation efforts
- Advocate for humanitarian access and civilian protection
- Support investigation into potential violations of international law
- Bilateral Engagement: Engage both US and China diplomatically:
- Express Singapore’s concerns about regional stability to US officials
- Coordinate with China on ensuring energy market stability
- Emphasize shared interest in avoiding escalation
Economic Preparedness:
- Energy Market Monitoring: Enhance monitoring of oil market impacts through:
- Close coordination with Energy Market Authority
- Industry consultation with refiners and traders
- Assessment of potential supply chain disruptions
- Preparation of contingency plans for price volatility
- Strategic Reserves: Review adequacy of Singapore’s strategic petroleum reserves in light of potential market disruption.
- Alternative Sourcing: Singapore’s refiners should assess alternative crude sources if Venezuelan supply to Asian markets is disrupted, working with traditional Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian suppliers.
- Financial Sector Vigilance: Monetary Authority of Singapore should monitor:
- Sanctions compliance by Singapore-based financial institutions
- Potential impacts on oil trading and financing activities
- Risks to Singapore-based companies with Venezuela exposure
Regional Engagement:
- Latin America Relations: Maintain and strengthen ties with Latin American countries:
- Express solidarity with regional sovereignty concerns
- Explore expanded trade and investment relationships
- Support regional development initiatives
- Engage through appropriate multilateral forums
- Humanitarian Support: Consider providing humanitarian assistance to regional countries managing refugee flows:
- Technical assistance in refugee management
- Financial contributions to UN humanitarian appeals
- Support for regional organizations managing the crisis
Long-term Strategic Positioning:
- International Law Advocacy: Strengthen Singapore’s role as champion of international law:
- Publish legal analysis of intervention’s violation of UN Charter
- Support academic and policy research on sovereignty and intervention
- Host regional dialogues on small state security in changing global order
- Strengthen Singapore’s International Law Advisory Panel
- Coalition Building: Build coalitions of like-minded states committed to:
- Preserving rules-based international order
- Protecting sovereignty of small and medium states
- Enhancing effectiveness of UN system
- Developing norms against unilateral intervention
- Defense Enhancement: Continue prudent defense investments ensuring Singapore can:
- Deter potential aggression
- Maintain credible defensive capabilities
- Strengthen regional security partnerships
- Enhance intelligence and early warning capabilities
- Economic Diversification: Accelerate efforts to diversify economic relationships:
- Reduce dependence on any single trading partner
- Expand into emerging markets
- Develop new economic sectors (technology, green economy)
- Strengthen ASEAN economic integration
Conclusion
The US intervention in Venezuela represents a watershed moment in international relations. It challenges the fundamental principle that sovereign states have the right to determine their own political systems free from external military intervention. For Singapore and other small states, the precedent is particularly concerning, as it demonstrates that even recognized sovereignty provides limited protection against major power actions justified on humanitarian, security, or other grounds.
The crisis demands a multilateral response that reaffirms international law, supports humanitarian needs, and establishes mechanisms to prevent future unilateral interventions. Singapore should leverage its diplomatic standing, ASEAN membership, and commitment to international law to advocate for peaceful resolution and respect for sovereignty while preparing economically for market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty.
The Venezuela crisis ultimately poses a question that all nations must answer: Will the international community allow the rules-based order to erode through major power unilateralism, or will it find ways to strengthen international law and collective security mechanisms that protect all states, large and small? Singapore’s response should clearly signal its commitment to the latter path, while pragmatically managing the economic and strategic challenges the crisis creates.
This analysis is based on publicly available information as of January 4, 2026. The situation remains highly fluid and subject to rapid change.