Executive Summary
On January 3, 2026, the United States conducted Operation Absolute Resolve, a military operation that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. This unprecedented action marks a significant shift in US foreign policy under the Trump administration and has created ripples across the international community, including Singapore.
Case Study: The Venezuelan Operation
Background Context
Venezuela has experienced severe economic and political deterioration since 2014, leading to the exodus of approximately 7.7 million citizens—roughly one-fifth of the population. Despite possessing vast oil reserves and natural resources, the country descended into economic collapse under Maduro’s leadership, marked by hyperinflation, food shortages, and political repression.
The Operation
The US military operation involved over 150 aircraft from 20 airbases, striking targets in Caracas and the states of Miranda, Aragua, and La Guaira. President Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores were seized and transported to New York to face drug trafficking charges. The operation resulted in seven US service members injured, while Venezuelan sources reported over 70 fatalities, with Cuba announcing 32 Cuban casualties.
Immediate Aftermath
Vice President Delcy Rodriguez was sworn in as interim president on January 5, 2026. However, the political establishment largely remains unchanged, creating uncertainty about Venezuela’s future trajectory. President Trump has warned remaining Venezuelan leaders of potential targeting if they fail to cooperate with Washington.
International Response
The operation has polarized the international community. Countries including China, Russia, Brazil, and several Asian-Pacific nations have condemned the action as a violation of sovereignty and international law. Conversely, nations like Argentina and Israel have expressed support. This division highlights broader geopolitical tensions and raises questions about the future of rules-based international order.
Outlook
Short-Term (3-6 months)
Political Instability: Venezuela faces continued uncertainty as the interim government navigates the post-Maduro landscape. The possibility of additional US operations targeting Maduro loyalists creates an atmosphere of fear and unpredictability.
Humanitarian Concerns: The immediate aftermath may see disruptions to basic services and potential civil unrest. The existing humanitarian crisis could worsen before stabilizing.
Regional Tensions: President Trump’s subsequent threats toward Colombia and predictions about Cuba’s government falling suggest potential for further interventions, creating anxiety throughout Latin America.
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
Leadership Transition: The critical question is whether Venezuela can transition to genuine democratic governance or if the existing establishment will consolidate power. The composition of the interim government suggests the latter may be more likely.
Economic Recovery Challenges: Even with political change, Venezuela faces massive challenges including rebuilding institutions, addressing hyperinflation, restoring oil production capacity, and creating conditions for refugee return.
Refugee Impact: Neighboring countries, particularly Colombia, may see shifts in Venezuelan migration patterns depending on whether conditions improve or deteriorate further.
Long-Term (18+ months)
Regional Realignment: The operation may fundamentally alter US-Latin American relations and could influence how regional powers like Brazil and Mexico position themselves relative to Washington.
Precedent Setting: This military action establishes a controversial precedent that could embolden similar interventions or, conversely, drive countries toward closer alignment with China and Russia as counterweights to US power.
Venezuelan Recovery: If stability is achieved, Venezuela’s resource wealth could enable significant economic recovery, potentially benefiting regional trade and development.
Solutions and Recommendations
For Venezuela
Institutional Rebuilding: Establish independent judicial systems, anti-corruption mechanisms, and democratic institutions separate from the previous regime’s influence.
National Reconciliation: Develop truth and reconciliation processes to address human rights abuses while building consensus for moving forward.
Economic Restructuring: Implement transparent management of oil revenues, attract foreign investment through stable legal frameworks, and diversify the economy beyond petroleum.
International Engagement: Build constructive relationships with diverse international partners while avoiding over-dependence on any single power.
For the International Community
Diplomatic Framework: Establish clear international mechanisms for addressing humanitarian crises and preventing unilateral military interventions.
Humanitarian Support: Provide coordinated assistance for displaced Venezuelans and support reconstruction efforts.
Economic Assistance: Offer structured support for economic stabilization, including debt restructuring and investment in infrastructure.
Monitoring Mechanisms: Create international oversight for democratic transitions and human rights protections.
For Regional Stakeholders
Colombia-Venezuela Relations: Rebuild economic ties and border management systems to benefit both nations and address migration challenges.
Latin American Unity: Develop stronger regional diplomatic mechanisms through organizations like CELAC to address shared challenges without external military intervention.
Brazil’s Leadership Role: As a regional power, Brazil could play a constructive role in facilitating dialogue and supporting Venezuela’s stabilization.
Impact on Singapore
Direct Impacts
Venezuelan Community: Singapore hosts a small but significant Venezuelan diaspora. These individuals face emotional stress from events affecting their homeland and uncertainty about family members’ safety. The situation creates challenges around:
- Mental health and wellbeing support needs
- Difficulty in financial remittances or family reunification
- Potential changes in immigration status or plans to return home
Hispanic/Latin American Community: The broader Latin American community in Singapore, estimated at several thousand people, is closely watching developments. The Latin American Chamber of Commerce Singapore serves as a focal point for these concerns.
Oil and Energy Markets: As a major oil trading and refining hub, Singapore is affected by Venezuelan oil market dynamics. Potential restoration of Venezuelan production capacity could influence:
- Global oil price stability
- Shifts in crude oil sourcing patterns
- Opportunities for Singapore-based traders and refiners
Indirect Strategic Impacts
Regional Security Precedent: The operation raises concerns about the erosion of international norms regarding sovereignty and non-intervention. For a small nation that relies heavily on rules-based international order, this precedent is troubling. Singapore has historically championed respect for sovereignty regardless of state size.
US Foreign Policy Unpredictability: The operation demonstrates the Trump administration’s willingness to use military force unilaterally. This creates uncertainty for US allies in Asia-Pacific, including Singapore, about:
- Reliability of security commitments
- Potential for regional conflicts or interventions
- Trade policy stability and economic relationships
China-US Competition: The international division over Venezuela could deepen the broader US-China strategic competition, putting middle powers like Singapore in difficult positions when forced to choose sides on controversial issues.
ASEAN Implications: Several ASEAN members have expressed concern about the Venezuela operation. This could strengthen ASEAN’s emphasis on sovereignty principles and non-interference, potentially complicating Singapore’s balancing act between various powers.
Economic and Trade Considerations
Latin American Trade: Singapore’s trade relationships with Latin America, while modest compared to Asian trade, could be affected by regional instability or shifts in US-Latin American relations.
Sanctions Compliance: Singapore-based companies must navigate complex sanctions regimes. Changes in Venezuelan sanctions could create opportunities or compliance challenges for financial and trading firms.
Financial Hub Role: As an international financial center, Singapore may see flows related to Venezuelan asset management, remittances, or reconstruction financing.
Policy Responses for Singapore
Diplomatic Positioning: Continue emphasizing support for international law and peaceful conflict resolution while maintaining constructive relationships with all major powers.
Community Support: Provide appropriate support services for affected Venezuelan and Latin American residents, including mental health resources and community connection opportunities.
Economic Preparedness: Monitor energy market developments and prepare for potential shifts in oil trading patterns.
Regional Engagement: Work through ASEAN and other multilateral forums to reinforce principles of sovereignty and rules-based order.
Strategic Communication: Clearly articulate Singapore’s position on international norms without unnecessarily antagonizing any major power.
Conclusion
The capture of Venezuelan President Maduro represents a watershed moment with implications extending far beyond Latin America. For Singapore, while direct impacts are limited, the broader questions about international order, US foreign policy predictability, and great power competition create an environment of increased strategic uncertainty.
Singapore’s interests are best served by continuing to advocate for rules-based international order, supporting peaceful resolution of conflicts, and maintaining its reputation as a stable, neutral hub for commerce and diplomacy. The Venezuelan situation underscores the importance of small states working collectively through international institutions to uphold principles that protect all nations, regardless of size or power.
The situation remains fluid, and Singapore should continue monitoring developments while preparing for various scenarios, from Venezuelan stabilization and reconstruction to further regional instability or escalated great power tensions.