Chad Wolf Joins American Global Strategies

by | Jan 9, 2026 | Uncategorized | 0 comments

Executive Summary

The appointment of former Acting Secretary of Homeland Security Chad F. Wolf as Vice Chairman of American Global Strategies (AGS) represents a significant development in the Washington advisory landscape with far-reaching implications for Singapore. As the city-state navigates an increasingly complex geopolitical environment marked by US-China tensions, protectionist trade policies, and shifting regional security dynamics, the expansion of AGS’s capabilities in homeland security, China policy, and government relations comes at a critical juncture.

Understanding American Global Strategies

Founded in 2021 by former National Security Advisor Robert C. O’Brien and former NSC Chief of Staff Alexander B. Gray, AGS is a boutique strategic advisory firm that has rapidly established itself as a key player connecting Trump administration foreign policy expertise with private sector clients. The firm specializes in navigating US government processes, assessing geopolitical risks, and advising on international business deals across defense, aerospace, maritime, technology, finance, and private equity sectors.

The firm’s leadership brings unparalleled access to Trump administration thinking and policy priorities. O’Brien served as the 27th US National Security Advisor from 2019-2021, playing a central role in shaping Indo-Pacific strategy, orchestrating the Abraham Accords, and articulating the administration’s hardline approach toward China. He now serves on President Trump’s Intelligence Advisory Board in the second Trump term, maintaining direct influence channels.

AGS represents clients ranging from Fortune 100 companies to international businesses seeking to navigate US regulatory environments and geopolitical challenges. The firm has worked with technology, defense, private equity, maritime, and manufacturing sector clients, providing strategic counsel on everything from supply chain vulnerabilities to government contract opportunities.

Chad Wolf’s Background and Expertise

Wolf brings exceptional depth in several areas directly relevant to Singapore-US relations:

Homeland Security Leadership: As Acting Secretary from 2019-2021, Wolf managed the third-largest federal department, overseeing border security, immigration, cybersecurity, critical infrastructure protection, and counterterrorism operations. His tenure was marked by managing complex crises including the COVID-19 pandemic, civil unrest, and natural disasters.

China Policy Architecture: Wolf was among the most vocal Trump administration officials on China threats, delivering major addresses at the Heritage Foundation outlining DHS’s comprehensive strategy to counter Chinese Communist Party (CCP) influence. He established DHS’s first China Working Group, published the department’s inaugural Homeland Threat Assessment highlighting China challenges, and developed a Strategic Action Plan to Counter the People’s Republic of China.

Wolf’s China focus encompassed economic security threats, supply chain vulnerabilities, technology transfer concerns, disinformation campaigns, intellectual property theft, and cyber espionage. He emphasized that “economic security is homeland security,” a principle with direct implications for Singapore’s role as a technology and finance hub.

Economic Security Focus: Wolf personally led efforts to establish DHS’s Economic Security Policy Council and published the department’s 2020 Economic Security Assessment. This focus on economic vulnerabilities, critical supply chains, and industrial base resilience will likely inform his advisory work at AGS.

America First Policy Institute Role: Beyond AGS, Wolf chairs Homeland Security, Immigration, and Western Hemisphere policy at the America First Policy Institute (AFPI), positioning him at the center of developing policy proposals for Trump administration priorities. AFPI serves as an intellectual hub for Trump-aligned policy development.

Singapore’s Current Strategic Environment

To understand the impact of Wolf’s appointment, it’s essential to examine Singapore’s complex position in the current US-led order:

Economic Vulnerabilities Under Trump 2.0: In April 2025, the Trump administration imposed a 10% universal tariff on goods imported from Singapore, with threats to increase rates to 25% if Singapore is linked to restricted imports like Venezuelan oil. Prime Minister Lawrence Wong described this as marking “a profound turning point” into “a new phase in global affairs—one that is more arbitrary, protectionist and dangerous.”

Singapore has maintained a consistent trade surplus with the United States under the US-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (USSFTA), which came into effect in 2004. The US is Singapore’s top trading partner in services, second largest in goods, and largest foreign investor. American companies have invested more in Singapore than in China, India, Japan, and South Korea combined. However, this economic interdependence now operates in an environment where Trump administration officials view trade surpluses as problematic rather than mutually beneficial.

Strategic Anxiety About Trump Administration: According to the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s State of Southeast Asia 2025 Survey, Singapore exhibited the sharpest decline in trust toward US engagement in Southeast Asia. A striking 70.2% of Singaporean respondents cited “new US leadership” as their top geopolitical concern—making Singapore the most pessimistic country surveyed about Trump 2.0. Over half (50.4%) expected US engagement in Southeast Asia to decrease, with 53.3% pointing to Trump’s unpredictability as their key concern.

This anxiety stems from fundamental tensions between Singapore’s interests and Trump administration approaches. Singapore has long relied on the US as a “regional guarantor of security and support of prosperity” operating within a rules-based international order. Trump’s transactional foreign policy, disregard for multilateral frameworks, and willingness to use economic coercion against partners directly challenges these assumptions.

Defence Relationship Under Pressure: Singapore’s defence ties with the US remain robust under the 2005 Strategic Framework Agreement and the 1990 MOU (extended in 2019 to 2035), which allows US forces access to Singapore’s Changi Naval Base and Paya Lebar Air Base. However, Singapore Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen publicly declared that America’s image in Asia has shifted “from liberator to disruptor to landlord seeking rent”—a remarkably blunt assessment from a close partner.

China Balancing Act: Singapore must carefully balance its security partnership with the US against its substantial economic ties with China. In May 2025, Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement emphasizing that international disputes should be handled through diplomatic channels, following social media tensions between US and Chinese embassies over South China Sea issues. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong explicitly stated in 2022 that “Singapore is not an ally of the United States” and would not be involved in a US war or expect American rescue if Singapore faced threats.

Strategic Implications for Singapore

The expansion of AGS’s capabilities through Wolf’s appointment creates several specific implications for Singapore:

1. Enhanced Influence Channel to Trump Administration Decision-Making

AGS now combines direct national security expertise (O’Brien’s current role on the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board) with homeland security, economic security, and China policy depth (Wolf’s portfolio). This creates an unusually powerful channel for clients seeking to understand and influence Trump administration priorities.

For Singapore government entities and Singaporean companies, AGS represents a potential avenue to:

  • Navigate US regulatory environments: Wolf’s experience managing DHS regulations on immigration, cybersecurity standards, critical infrastructure protection, and supply chain security provides practical guidance for compliance challenges
  • Anticipate policy shifts: With O’Brien maintaining direct access to Trump’s inner circle and Wolf connected to AFPI policy development, AGS can offer early warning on regulatory changes, tariff adjustments, or security requirements
  • Shape policy discussions: Through strategic messaging and stakeholder engagement, AGS can help clients articulate positions to US policymakers before decisions solidify

However, this influence channel comes with inherent tensions. AGS’s worldview—shaped by Trump administration “America First” principles, skepticism of multilateralism, focus on bilateral transactional relationships, and hardline China policy—conflicts with Singapore’s interests in maintaining regional stability, rules-based trade, and constructive engagement with all major powers.

2. Increased Scrutiny on Singapore’s China Relations

Wolf’s appointment signals AGS’s enhanced capability to advise clients on China-related risks and opportunities. Given Wolf’s extensive record of public statements framing China as an existential threat to American security and prosperity, his involvement likely means:

Supply Chain Vulnerability Assessments: Singapore’s role as a major transshipment hub and its significant trade flows involving Chinese goods and components will face heightened examination. Companies using Singapore as a base for regional operations may encounter pressure to demonstrate supply chain independence from China or risk being treated as de facto Chinese entities for US policy purposes.

The Trump administration has shown willingness to impose 40% penalty tariffs on goods suspected of transshipment to evade China tariffs. Singapore-based manufacturers, especially in semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and technology sectors, could face demands to provide extensive documentation of origin, potentially disrupting established business models.

Technology Transfer Concerns: Singapore’s position as a technology hub—with major US technology companies alongside Chinese firms—creates potential friction points. Wolf’s emphasis on protecting American technology and intellectual property from Chinese acquisition suggests increased scrutiny of technology flows through Singapore.

Singapore’s universities and research institutions maintaining collaborations with Chinese counterparts may face pressure to restrict certain partnerships or face consequences for US government research funding or technology access.

Financial Services Implications: Singapore’s role as a major financial center with significant Chinese banking presence may attract attention regarding sanctions compliance, particularly if US-China tensions escalate. Wolf’s experience with economic security issues positions AGS to advise clients on navigating these pressures—but also to flag concerns to US authorities.

3. Defence and Security Cooperation Complexities

Wolf’s homeland security expertise introduces new dimensions to Singapore-US security discussions:

Critical Infrastructure Protection: Wolf’s focus on cybersecurity and critical infrastructure protection may inform discussions about Singapore’s digital infrastructure security, particularly regarding telecommunications equipment, cloud services, and data center operations. Singapore’s willingness to allow Chinese technology in certain civilian infrastructure could become a friction point.

Port Security Standards: Given Singapore’s role as the world’s second-busiest port and Wolf’s background in border security and supply chain integrity, port security cooperation may expand—but could also involve pressure to implement more stringent screening of Chinese vessels or cargo.

Counterterrorism and Intelligence Sharing: Singapore’s strong record on counterterrorism cooperation and its position as the only Asian contributor to the Defeat-ISIS coalition provides a positive foundation. However, Wolf’s tendency to frame China as a comprehensive threat (not just competitive rival) may create pressure for Singapore to choose sides in ways that compromise its balanced approach.

4. Economic Policy Uncertainty

Wolf’s appointment to AGS coincides with unprecedented uncertainty in US economic policy toward allies:

Tariff Unpredictability: Wolf’s work at AFPI developing Trump administration policy proposals means he likely has insight into potential tariff escalations, exemption criteria, or negotiation strategies. AGS may advise clients that the current 10% rate is merely a starting point for negotiations rather than a final outcome.

Investment Screening Expansion: Wolf’s economic security focus suggests potential expansion of Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) reviews to scrutinize investments from Singapore-based entities with any Chinese connections, even when those entities are controlled by Singaporean or third-country investors.

“Friend-Shoring” Pressures: The Trump administration’s push for supply chain resilience may involve pressure on Singapore to choose between maintaining its position as a neutral hub for all major economies or aligning more explicitly with US-led supply chain initiatives that exclude China. This represents a fundamental challenge to Singapore’s economic model.

Opportunities Amidst Challenges

While the strategic environment presents significant challenges, Wolf’s appointment to AGS also creates specific opportunities:

1. Proactive Engagement Strategy

Singapore can leverage AGS’s expertise to:

  • Develop anticipatory compliance programs: Rather than reactively responding to new US requirements, Singaporean entities can work with firms like AGS to identify emerging regulatory expectations and build compliance frameworks ahead of official mandates
  • Articulate strategic value propositions: AGS can help Singapore craft messaging that resonates with Trump administration priorities—emphasizing job creation in the US from Singapore investments, security cooperation contributions, and Singapore’s role in containing risks that concern Washington
  • Navigate specific regulatory challenges: For sectors facing particular scrutiny (semiconductors, telecommunications, maritime, finance), AGS provides technical expertise on US government processes and decision-making

2. Understanding the US Policy Development Ecosystem

AGS’s connections to AFPI and other Trump-aligned policy institutions provide visibility into policy development before it reaches formal implementation stages. This early warning capability allows Singapore to:

  • Prepare position papers and advocacy strategies before decisions solidify
  • Identify potential allies within the US government who may share concerns about specific policy directions
  • Develop alternative proposals that address US concerns while protecting Singapore’s interests

3. Selective Partnership on Shared Priorities

Despite broader tensions, there are areas of genuine convergence:

Counterterrorism: Singapore’s strong counterterrorism record and practical cooperation provide a foundation for continued partnership regardless of broader policy differences

Maritime Security: Both countries have interests in maintaining freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, though they differ on how assertively to challenge China’s claims

Technology Standards: Singapore shares US concerns about cybersecurity, though it prefers multilateral approaches to setting standards rather than unilateral restrictions

AGS’s expertise can help identify specific projects or initiatives where cooperation advances both countries’ interests without requiring broader strategic alignment.

4. Risk Mitigation for Singaporean Companies

Singaporean firms with significant US operations or markets can benefit from AGS’s guidance on:

  • Regulatory compliance strategies to maintain US market access
  • Government contract opportunities in defense and homeland security sectors where Singapore firms have technical capabilities
  • Partnership structures that satisfy US concerns about Chinese involvement while preserving commercial viability
  • Crisis management when companies face sudden regulatory challenges or political scrutiny

Strategic Recommendations for Singapore

Based on this analysis, Singapore’s government and business community should consider:

For Government Policymakers:

  1. Enhance Strategic Communications Capabilities: Develop more sophisticated messaging that addresses US concerns about China while articulating Singapore’s unique value proposition. This requires understanding Trump administration decision-making processes and priorities—exactly the expertise AGS offers, though Singapore should develop these capabilities internally rather than relying on external advisors.
  2. Diversify Influence Channels: While firms like AGS represent one pathway to US decision-makers, Singapore should maintain diverse channels including congressional relationships, state-level partnerships, business community engagement, and direct diplomatic outreach. Over-reliance on any single channel creates vulnerability.
  3. Prepare for Economic Decoupling Pressures: Develop contingency plans for scenarios where Singapore faces pressure to choose between US and China economic alignment. This includes identifying which sectors can afford to align more closely with US preferences and which require maintaining neutrality.
  4. Strengthen ASEAN Coordination: Singapore’s concerns about US unpredictability are shared by other Southeast Asian nations. Collective positions carry more weight than individual countries operating alone. However, coordination is challenging given varying degrees of China dependence across ASEAN members.

For Singaporean Businesses:

  1. Assess Supply Chain Vulnerability: Conduct comprehensive reviews of supply chain exposure to potential US-China decoupling scenarios. Identify critical dependencies on Chinese inputs or markets that could trigger US restrictions.
  2. Consider Strategic Advisory Support: For firms with significant US exposure, consider engaging firms like AGS or similar advisors who understand Trump administration priorities and can provide early warning of regulatory changes. However, carefully evaluate whether such relationships align with long-term strategy given potential perception issues.
  3. Develop Compliance Infrastructure: Invest in robust compliance systems that can document supply chain origins, technology sources, and beneficial ownership structures. The burden of proof is shifting to companies to demonstrate compliance rather than authorities having to prove violations.
  4. Prepare Multiple Market Strategies: Develop strategies that can be adapted depending on whether the global trading system fragments into competing blocs or maintains more integration. This may require maintaining separate operations, supply chains, or product versions for different markets.

For Foreign Investors in Singapore:

  1. Monitor US Policy Developments: Singapore’s role in global supply chains depends on maintaining access to both US and Chinese markets. Investors should closely track US policy evolution and assess whether Singapore can maintain its neutral hub status.
  2. Evaluate Jurisdiction Risk: The unpredictability of US policy under Trump 2.0 represents a new form of jurisdiction risk. Even companies with no direct US operations may face restrictions if they operate in Singapore and have Chinese connections.
  3. Diversification Considerations: Consider whether Singapore should remain a single primary hub or whether diversification across multiple Southeast Asian locations might reduce concentration risk if US-Singapore relations deteriorate further.

Conclusion

Chad Wolf’s appointment as Vice Chairman of American Global Strategies represents more than a routine personnel change in Washington’s revolving door between government and private sector. It signals an expansion of AGS’s capabilities in precisely the domains where Singapore faces its greatest strategic challenges: navigating US-China tensions, managing economic security requirements, and maintaining security partnerships amid profound shifts in US global engagement.

For Singapore, this development offers both opportunities and risks. On one hand, AGS’s expertise provides potential channels for understanding and influencing US policy development during a period of exceptional unpredictability. Wolf’s deep experience in homeland security, economic security, and China policy makes him particularly relevant to Singapore’s specific challenges.

On the other hand, the worldview that AGS leadership brings—shaped by “America First” transactionalism, skepticism of multilateral frameworks, and comprehensive rivalry with China—fundamentally conflicts with Singapore’s interests in a stable, rules-based international order. Singapore’s success has been built on serving as a neutral hub where all major powers can operate, a model that Trump administration policies increasingly challenge.

The coming months will test whether Singapore can successfully navigate this complex environment. AGS’s expansion of capabilities creates new tools for engagement but also new sources of pressure as the firm advises clients on protecting American interests in ways that may not align with Singapore’s vision of regional order.

For Singapore’s leadership, business community, and policy analysts, understanding entities like AGS—their expertise, their influence channels, their ideological frameworks—becomes increasingly important. The decisions these Washington insiders help shape will directly affect Singapore’s prosperity, security, and strategic autonomy in an era of unprecedented geopolitical turbulence.

The appointment of Chad Wolf to American Global Strategies is thus not merely a Washington story but a Singapore story—one that will play out in trade negotiations, security consultations, regulatory decisions, and corporate boardrooms across the coming years. Singapore’s ability to adapt its strategies, maintain its core interests, and preserve its unique role in global commerce will depend partly on understanding the changing landscape of US policy influence, of which AGS is now a more formidable part.