On January 7, 2025, President Donald Trump signed a proclamation directing the United States to withdraw from 66 international organizations, including the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). This decision represents a significant shift in US engagement with multilateral renewable energy initiatives and comes at a critical juncture in the global energy transition.
IRENA, founded in 2009, serves as the primary intergovernmental platform for renewable energy cooperation, with over 168 member countries. The agency provides technical assistance, policy advice, and capacity building to support countries in their transition to renewable energy. The US has been a substantial contributor to IRENA’s operations, accounting for approximately 22% of the agency’s budget.
The withdrawal occurs against a backdrop of accelerating climate challenges and growing energy demands, particularly in developing regions. South-east Asia, which currently accounts for 11% of global energy demand growth since 2010 and is projected to represent over 25% of growth by 2035, remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels. The region’s energy transition is considered crucial for meeting global climate targets, including the COP28 commitment to triple renewable energy capacity to 11,000GW by 2030.
IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera has emphasized that while the US withdrawal represents a significant budgetary challenge, the agency is committed to maintaining support for all regions, particularly those with rapidly growing energy demands like South-east Asia and Africa.
Outlook
Short-term Implications (2025-2027)
The immediate future presents both challenges and opportunities for international renewable energy cooperation. IRENA faces the task of compensating for the 22% budget shortfall while maintaining its technical assistance programs and policy advisory services. The agency will need to diversify its funding sources and potentially seek increased contributions from existing members or new partnerships with private sector entities and philanthropic organizations.
For South-east Asia specifically, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic. Regional initiatives like the ASEAN power grid continue to advance, with a new framework established in 2025 providing clearer regulations for cross-border power trade using subsea cables. This infrastructure development could enable countries to share renewable electricity resources more efficiently across the archipelagic region.
The withdrawal may paradoxically strengthen multilateral resolve among remaining member states. As evidenced at the 16th IRENA Assembly in Abu Dhabi, countries including Spain, Maldives, and Dominican Republic have reaffirmed their commitment to international cooperation on renewable energy, recognizing that climate challenges transcend national borders.
Long-term Projections (2028-2035)
The long-term outlook depends significantly on how effectively IRENA adapts its operational model and how other major economies respond to fill the leadership vacuum. China, the European Union, and emerging economies may increase their influence within the agency, potentially reshaping priorities and investment patterns.
South-east Asia’s renewable energy trajectory is likely to continue regardless of US participation in IRENA, driven by domestic factors including energy security concerns, declining renewable technology costs, and climate vulnerability. However, the pace and efficiency of the transition may be affected by reduced technical assistance and international coordination.
The global renewable energy sector itself continues to grow robustly, with market forces increasingly favoring clean energy over fossil fuels due to cost competitiveness. This economic reality provides a foundation for continued progress even amid shifting political alignments.
Solutions
Immediate Responses
Diversified Funding Model: IRENA should pursue a multi-stakeholder funding approach that includes increased contributions from major renewable energy economies like China, India, and the European Union, as well as partnerships with development banks, private sector entities, and climate finance mechanisms.
Enhanced Regional Collaboration: Small island developing states and regional blocs like ASEAN can strengthen their cooperation frameworks independently of IRENA’s budget constraints. The emphasis should be on pooling projects to attract investors, sharing technical knowledge, and creating aligned regulatory frameworks that facilitate cross-border renewable energy trade.
Public-Private Partnerships: Governments can leverage private sector investment more effectively by creating conducive policy environments, reducing regulatory barriers, and offering risk mitigation instruments for large-scale renewable infrastructure projects like subsea power cables.
South-South Cooperation: Developing countries with successful renewable energy experiences can share their expertise and lessons learned directly with peer nations facing similar challenges, reducing dependence on traditional donor relationships.
Strategic Long-term Solutions
Strengthening Regional Institutions: As emphasized by Dominican Republic’s Foreign Minister, building and strengthening regional renewable energy institutions can ensure member states receive tailored support that addresses their specific circumstances and constraints.
Technology Transfer Mechanisms: Establishing formal frameworks for renewable energy technology transfer, particularly for emerging technologies like advanced battery storage and green hydrogen, can accelerate the energy transition in developing regions.
Integrated Grid Development: Accelerating projects like the ASEAN power grid that physically connect renewable energy sources with demand centers can create economies of scale, improve energy security, and demonstrate the viability of cross-border renewable energy systems.
Capacity Building Programs: Investing in education and training programs that develop local expertise in renewable energy planning, implementation, and maintenance ensures sustainable long-term transitions that don’t depend on external technical assistance.
Innovative Financing Instruments: Developing new financial mechanisms such as green bonds, blended finance structures, and sovereign sustainability-linked bonds can mobilize the capital needed for renewable infrastructure in regions with limited fiscal capacity.
Impact
Impact on IRENA
The withdrawal creates immediate financial pressure on IRENA’s operations, requiring the agency to become more efficient and strategic in resource allocation. However, it also presents an opportunity for organizational evolution. IRENA may emerge more agile and less dependent on any single member state, with a more diversified funding base and strengthened partnerships with non-state actors.
The agency’s credibility and effectiveness will be tested by its ability to maintain service levels to priority regions while managing budget constraints. Success in this challenge could actually strengthen IRENA’s position as an indispensable platform for multilateral cooperation on renewable energy.
Impact on South-east Asia
Despite assurances from IRENA’s leadership, South-east Asia may experience subtle effects from reduced US engagement. Technical assistance programs could face delays, and the absence of US perspectives in policy discussions may shift the balance of technical recommendations and best practices shared within the region.
However, the region’s renewable energy transition fundamentally depends on domestic policy choices, regional cooperation, and market dynamics rather than IRENA’s budget. Countries like Singapore are already advancing sophisticated initiatives such as subsea cable projects to import renewable electricity from neighboring countries with better solar and hydroelectric resources.
The main risk for South-east Asia is not the loss of IRENA support per se, but rather the potential signal that international cooperation on climate action is weakening. This could affect investor confidence in long-term renewable energy projects that depend on stable policy environments and international financing.
Impact on Global Renewable Energy Goals
The US withdrawal from IRENA represents a setback for multilateral climate cooperation at a time when accelerated action is needed to meet the COP28 target of tripling global renewable capacity by 2030. However, the renewable energy transition has developed significant momentum driven by economic factors that transcend political decisions.
The withdrawal’s symbolic impact may be greater than its practical consequences. It signals a retreat from multilateralism by the world’s largest economy and historically largest cumulative greenhouse gas emitter, potentially emboldening other countries to deprioritize international climate commitments.
Conversely, it may galvanize other nations to demonstrate leadership and commitment to fill the void. The strong statements from countries at the IRENA Assembly about the value of multilateralism and continued cooperation suggest that many nations view the energy transition as an irreversible trend and economic opportunity rather than merely a political commitment.
Broader Geopolitical Implications
The withdrawal reflects and reinforces a broader shift in global power dynamics around clean energy. As the US steps back from multilateral energy institutions, countries like China and members of the European Union may expand their influence in shaping international renewable energy standards, technology development pathways, and investment flows.
This could lead to a more fragmented global renewable energy landscape with competing standards and approaches, potentially reducing efficiency. Alternatively, it could spur innovation as different regional models compete and learn from each other’s successes and failures.
For developing countries, the changing landscape creates both challenges and opportunities. While they may lose access to some forms of US technical assistance and financing, they may gain flexibility to pursue diverse approaches and form new partnerships unburdened by traditional donor-recipient dynamics.
Conclusion: The US withdrawal from IRENA represents a significant development in international renewable energy cooperation, but not necessarily a fatal blow to global climate action. The ultimate impact will depend on how effectively other stakeholders adapt, whether market forces continue to favor renewable energy adoption, and whether regional cooperation mechanisms can compensate for reduced multilateral coordination. South-east Asia’s energy future will be shaped primarily by regional decisions and economic realities rather than by IRENA’s budget constraints, though the agency’s continued support remains valuable for accelerating the transition.