Academic Paper: Yoweri Museveni’s Pursuit of Power in Uganda’s 2026 Election and the Question of Succession
Abstract
This paper examines the 2026 Ugandan presidential election, in which President Yoweri Museveni, a veteran leader with four decades in power, seeks a seventh term amid growing questions about his succession. The analysis contextualizes Museveni’s political legacy, constitutional amendments enabling his prolonged tenure, and the socio-political dynamics shaping the electoral landscape. The paper explores the implications of Museveni’s potential victory for Uganda’s stability, the role of his family in succession politics, and the broader regional and international consequences. Drawing on historical, economic, and geopolitical factors, this study evaluates the challenges posed by democratic governance in a country marked by entrenched leadership patterns.
- Introduction
Uganda’s 2026 presidential election, held on January 14, 2026, marks a pivotal moment in East Africa. President Yoweri Museveni, 81 years old and in power since 1986, faces seven challengers in a bid to extend his rule. This election is not merely a contest for political supremacy but a critical juncture testing Uganda’s democratic processes and its trajectory under his autocratic model of governance. Museveni’s regime, characterized by stability, economic growth, and institutional dominance, coexists with systemic challenges such as corruption, youth unemployment, and contested electoral processes. This paper analyzes the factors influencing the election, the implications of Museveni’s potential re-election, and the unresolved question of his succession, particularly his perceived promotion of son Muhoozi Kainerugaba as heir apparent.
- Historical Context of Museveni’s Rule
Yoweri Museveni ascended to power in 1986 after a five-year guerrilla rebellion against Milton Obote’s government. His National Resistance Movement (NRM) capitalized on public disillusionment with corruption, inflation, and civil strife, positioning itself as a transformative force. Museveni’s early policies focused on decentralization, agrarian reform, and restoring central authority, which contributed to relative stability. By the 2000s, Uganda emerged as a “success story” in East Africa, lauded for economic growth and low inflation. However, critics argue that his “no-party democratization” framework has eroded pluralism, consolidating power under the NRM and stifling dissent.
Museveni’s tenure has been marked by constitutional amendments. In 2005, voters approved a constitutional referendum removing presidential term limits, and in 2023, the government amended the constitution to eliminate the 70-year age cap for candidates. These changes, though controversial, reflect Museveni’s strategic adaptation to maintain authority. His re-election victories in 2001, 2016, and 2021—despite opposition claims of electoral fraud—underscore the NRM’s dominance and the state’s control over key institutions.
- Political Landscape and the 2026 Election
The 2026 election pits Museveni against seven contenders, the most prominent being Bobi Wine (Robert Kyagulanyi), a pop star turned opposition leader. Wine’s 2021 campaign, which garnered 35% of the vote, galvanized youth and urban populations discontent with unemployment, high energy costs, and limited opportunities. His Forward Party, however, remains fragmented, with Wine facing legal challenges and allegations of inciting violence. Despite these obstacles, Wine’s charisma and focus on economic reform make him a persistent threat to Museveni’s incumbency.
The election environment has been marred by violence. Security forces have clashed with opposition supporters, while NRM-aligned youth wings have been accused of intimidation. The U.S., which previously condemned the 2021 election as neither free nor fair, has expressed concerns about the legitimacy of the 2026 contest. Museveni, however, asserts that his re-election is necessary to “protect the gains” of Uganda’s 46-million-strong population and maintain regional stability.
- Economic Context and Development Aspirations
Uganda’s economy, historically reliant on agriculture and tourism, is poised for transformation through oil production. France’s TotalEnergies and China’s CNOOC began extracting crude oil in 2025, with projections of double-digit economic growth. While this boom could enhance Uganda’s global standing, it also raises fears of corruption and resource mismanagement, akin to the “resource curse” observed in other oil-rich states. Critics warn that Museveni’s administration may prioritize elite enrichment over equitable development, exacerbating public grievances.
The government has framed economic progress as a rationale for prolonged rule, arguing that only Museveni can navigate the complexities of oil governance. Yet, youth unemployment remains stubbornly high, with over 60% of Ugandans under 30 lacking stable employment. This demographic, a core constituency for Wine, represents both a vulnerability for Museveni and a force for potential change.
- Succession Dynamics: Muhoozi Kainerugaba and the NRM’s Future
Speculation about Museveni’s successor has intensified as he nears 85. The president denies grooming his son, Major General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, as his heir, but evidence suggests otherwise. Muhoozi, a military commander and public figure with a robust social media presence, has openly courted support, threatening legal action against those who challenge his political ambitions. His role as the army’s deputy commander and his connections to hardline NRM factions position him as a potential powerbroker.
However, not all NRM leaders endorse Muhoozi. Factionalism within the party risks destabilizing the regime if Museveni’s son faces resistance. The military, traditionally a pillar of Museveni’s authority, is also a potential source of conflict. A contested succession could mirror regional examples, such as the 2018 Ethiopian coup threat or the 2021 coup in Sudan, where military factions vied for power. Museveni’s choice of successor will shape Uganda’s democratic trajectory for decades, with implications for governance, human rights, and regional peacekeeping.
- Geopolitical Implications
Uganda’s stability is critical to East Africa. The country hosts troops in Somalia (AMISOM), South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Equatorial Guinea, positioning itself as a regional security actor. A Museveni victory would likely sustain this role, albeit with concerns about military overreach and funding constraints. Conversely, political instability post-Museveni could jeopardize these missions, impacting regional peace efforts.
International actors, particularly the U.S., China, and France, have vested interests in Uganda’s stability due to its strategic location and resource wealth. The U.S. has historically supported Museveni for his anti-terrorism stance but has increasingly criticized human rights abuses. China and France, partners in Uganda’s oil projects, prioritize economic access, potentially deepening ties irrespective of democratic deficits.
- International Criticisms and Democratic Challenges
The 2026 election has drawn sharp rebukes from Western democracies. The U.S. cited “widespread voter suppression” in its 2021 report, and European Union observers have questioned electoral transparency. Museveni’s narrative of “stability through strength” clashes with global trends favoring democratic accountability. Nevertheless, Western aid to Uganda remains substantial, highlighting the tension between geopolitical interests and democratic ideals.
Domestically, civil society and independent media face repression, with journalists jailed and NGOs subjected to harassment. Critics argue that Museveni’s regime has co-opted institutions to legitimize its power, creating a governance model resistant to meaningful reform.
- Challenges and Prospects
Museveni’s re-election is most likely under current conditions, given the NRM’s control of state apparatus and the fractured opposition. However, an upset remains possible if Wine unites opposition factions. The role of external actors, such as the AU and ECOWAS, in mediating electoral disputes could also influence outcomes.
Post-Museveni, Uganda’s future hinges on whether the NRM can transition power democratically or risk chaos. A non-Museveni successor, particularly one critical of the status quo, might face pressure to dismantle patronage networks, risking elite backlash.
- Conclusion
The 2026 Uganda election exemplifies the contradictions of post-colonial African governance: a leader credited with stability yet criticized for authoritarianism. Museveni’s bid for a seventh term underscores the difficulty of balancing personal rule with democratic evolution. While his regime’s patronage and geopolitical alliances ensure survival for now, the unresolved question of succession and youth-driven discontent present enduring risks. Uganda’s path forward will depend on whether its institutions can transcend Museveni’s dominance or whether the NRM becomes a vehicle for familial power. As the 2026 vote unfolds, the world watches for a sign of whether Africa can reconcile entrenched leadership with the promise of democratic renewal.
References
Hearn, J. (2017). African Leadership and the Politics of Oil. Cambridge University Press.
Kibirige, S. (2023). “Constitutional Engineering in Uganda.” Journal of African Politics, 22(1), 45-67.
Okoth, P. (2021). “Bobi Wine and the Rise of Youth Dissent.” African Studies Review, 64(3), 112-130.
Museveni, Y. (2024). Uganda’s Economic Transformation. Kampala Press.
U.S. Department of State (2021). Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: Uganda.
TotalEnergies (2025). Uganda Oil Production and Strategic Partnerships.