Title: Singapore’s Revised 2035 Farming Goals: Balancing Ambition and Pragmatism in Urban Food Security Strategy
Abstract
Singapore’s revision of its 2035 farming targets marks a pragmatic recalibration of its food security strategy amid agritech sector challenges. This paper critically examines the rationale behind the abandonment of the “30 by 30” target (30% local food production by 2030), the new 2035 goals, and their implications for Singapore’s food resilience. Through an analysis of policy discourse, stakeholder challenges, and strategic frameworks, the paper explores how the revised targets address land and resource constraints while maintaining commitment to food sovereignty. It concludes that the shift reflects adaptive governance and a nuanced understanding of scalable and sustainable agricultural practices in a land-scarce, high-cost environment.
- Introduction
Singapore, a city-state with limited arable land and high resource dependence, has long grappled with food security challenges. The original “30 by 30” policy (2030) aimed to produce 30% of the nation’s food needs by 2030 but was abandoned in 2025 due to unsustainable agritech sector dynamics. This paper investigates the revised 2035 targets (20% fibre and 30% protein self-sufficiency), their strategic underpinnings, and their role in Singapore’s four-pronged food security strategy. It argues that the policy shift balances ambition with pragmatism, acknowledging economic and technical constraints while fostering resilience through diversification and innovation.
- Background: Singapore’s Agritech Sector and the “30 by 30” Policy
Singapore’s food security has traditionally relied on a multi-pronged approach, including imports (90% of food in 2024), stockpiling, and regional supply agreements. The “30 by 30” target, launched in 2019, aimed to bolster local production through high-tech vertical farming, aquaculture, and R&D. However, the sector faced systemic challenges:
High production costs: Energy and land scarcity inflate operating expenses.
Supply chain fragility: Post-pandemic disruptions and climate risks exposed vulnerabilities.
Investor confidence: Declining returns and closures of agritech firms (e.g., 10% farm closures in 2024) signaled sector strain.
These issues prompted a year-long policy review, culminating in the 2035 targets’ adoption in 2025.
- Rationale for Scrapping the “30 by 30” Target
Senior Minister Zaqy Mohamad emphasized that the 2030 goal lacked feasibility due to unmet scalability of technologies and unsustainable economic models. Key critiques included:
Land constraints: Singapore’s 728 km² area limits expansion of resource-intensive farming.
Economic viability: Vertical farms require $10–$15/m²/day in operational costs, exceeding cost-competitiveness thresholds.
Production disparities: The 2020–2024 period saw only 8% fibre self-sufficiency, far below the 30% target.
The 2030 goal was thus deemed overly ambitious given the agritech sector’s maturity and resource limitations.
- Revised 2035 Targets: Strategic Refinement
The 2035 targets focus on fibre (20% of consumption) and protein (30% of domestic needs), reflecting a targeted approach based on local feasibility:
Fibre production (leafy vegetables, mushrooms): Optimized for high-yield, low-land vertical farming.
Protein (eggs, seafood): Leverages aquaculture advancements and egg production economies of scale.
This shift prioritizes “viable scalability,” redirecting resources to crops and proteins suited to Singapore’s technological and spatial context. The new metrics also align with dietary patterns, as fibre constitutes ~35% of per capita food consumption.
- The Four-Pronged Food Security Strategy
Singapore’s revised strategy integrates four pillars:
Local Production: Targeted increases in fibre and protein, supported by grants for R&D and energy subsidies.
Diversified Imports: Reducing reliance on single sources (e.g., Vietnam for seafood, Malaysia for fruits).
Strategic Stockpiling: Reserves of rice, canned goods, and frozen foods buffer against trade shocks.
Trade Agreements: Bilateral deals (e.g., with Indonesia, Thailand) ensure supply continuity and mitigate export restrictions.
As Zaqy noted, this approach ensures “resilience in times of disruption,” balancing short- and long-term risks.
- Implications for Food Security
The 2035 targets, while modest compared to 2030, enhance resilience by:
Reducing import dependency: From 92% (2024) to 80% by 2035.
Enhancing fresh produce availability: Stockpiles cannot substitute perishables, making local farms critical.
Attracting agritech investment: The Singapore Food Agency (SFA) reports a 15% increase in agritech funding applications post-2035 target announcement.
However, self-sufficiency in days of supply remains undisclosed for national security, highlighting strategic ambiguity in contingency planning.
- Challenges and Criticisms
Critics argue the 2035 goals remain aspirational amid persistent challenges:
Energy costs: Solar energy integration in vertical farms (e.g., Sustenir Agriculture) reduces but does not eliminate cost barriers.
Climate risks: Sea-level rise threatens aquaculture sites; regulatory support for climate-resilient tech is needed.
Equity concerns: High-cost produce may remain unaffordable for lower-income households, necessitating subsidies.
Parliamentary questions raised by MP He Ting Ru underscore the need for transparency in contingency planning and self-sufficiency metrics.
- Comparative Insights and Policy Lessons
Singapore’s approach mirrors broader urban agriculture trends, such as Tokyo’s vertical farming push and Singapore’s own 2013 policy shifts. Lessons include:
Context-specific targets: Tailoring goals to local capabilities (e.g., fibre over grains).
Phased implementation: The 2035 timeline allows time for technological maturation and cost reductions.
Public-private partnerships: SFA’s $260 million in agritech grants exemplify state-firm collaboration.
- Future Outlook
Achieving the 2035 targets hinges on:
Innovation in agritech: Breakthroughs in LED efficiency, AI-driven resource management, and synthetic biology.
Regional collaboration: Expanding regional food hubs (e.g., the ASEAN-Singapore Food Security Partnership).
Policy adaptability: Continuous review of cost-support mechanisms and crop diversification.
The success of these efforts will determine whether Singapore’s food resilience model can serve as a blueprint for other resource-constrained urban centers.
- Conclusion
Singapore’s revised 2035 farming goals exemplify adaptive governance in the face of agritech sector headwinds. By prioritizing scalable crops, integrating strategic diversification, and acknowledging resource realities, the policy balances ambition with pragmatism. While challenges persist, the approach underscores the importance of context-sensitive planning in achieving food security for ultra-dense urban environments. Future research should evaluate the 2035 framework’s efficacy and scalability in similar global contexts.
References
Singapore Food Agency. (2024). Annual Report on Local Food Production.
Zaqy, M. (2026). Parliamentary Statement on Food Security. Parliament of Singapore.
Strait Times (2026). Singapore’s Revised 2035 Farming Goals: Balancing Ambition and Pragmatism.
World Bank. (2023). Urban Agriculture in Land-Scarce Nations: A Global Review.
Tan, S. L. (2025). Speech on Agritech Subsidies. Ministry of Sustainability and the Environment.