Academic Paper Title:
“Fractured Unity: The 2026 Aleppo Conflict, Kurdish Resistance, and the Fragility of Syria’s Post-War Governance”
Abstract:
This paper examines the January 2026 violence in Aleppo, Syria, which culminated in the forced withdrawal of Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) from the city’s Kurdish enclaves of Sheikh Maksoud and Ashrafiya. The conflict, erupting five days after a fragile ceasefire and following escalating tensions between the new national government and the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), highlights the persistent fragility of post-war state reconstruction in Syria. Drawing on primary sources including eyewitness accounts, official statements, media reports, and geopolitical analysis, this study situates the 2026 Aleppo crisis within broader debates over national integration, minority rights, and Islamist-led governance in post-Assad Syria. It argues that President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s centralization project has inadvertently deepened ethnic and political fault lines, particularly with the Kurdish population, whose demands for autonomy clash with the government’s vision of a unified, Islamist-influenced state. The paper concludes by assessing the implications of the conflict for regional stability, the viability of the 2025 integration agreement, and the long-term prospects for peace in Syria.
- Introduction
The Syrian conflict, entering its fifteenth year in 2026, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. After more than a decade of civil war, shifting alliances, foreign interventions, and humanitarian catastrophe, a new government led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa—a former Islamist rebel commander—assumed power in Damascus. Al-Sharaa’s coalition, composed primarily of former opposition factions from the Syrian National Army (SNA), pledged to unify the fractured country under a single national authority. Yet, one year into his administration, this promise of unity faces a critical test in the form of renewed violence in northern Syria, particularly in Aleppo, where Kurdish forces—long-standing de facto rulers of two urban enclaves—were expelled in early January 2026 after five days of intense fighting.
The clashes in Aleppo, which resulted in at least 23 to 48 civilian and combatant deaths (depending on source), the displacement of over 150,000 residents, and a mass protest in Qamishli on January 13, 2026, underscore the incomplete and contested nature of Syria’s political transition. This paper analyzes the causes, dynamics, and implications of the Aleppo crisis, focusing on the Kurdish community’s resistance to integration into the new government and the broader challenges of post-war reconciliation in a deeply divided state.
- Background: Kurdish Autonomy and the Post-Assad Political Landscape
2.1 The Rise of Kurdish Self-Rule in Syria
Since the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War in 2011, Kurdish forces—led by the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its military wing, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), later forming the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)—established a de facto autonomous region in northeastern Syria, known as the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES). This administration, inspired by democratic confederalism and backed by international coalitions (particularly the United States) during the fight against ISIS, governed over multi-ethnic territories encompassing Kurds, Arabs, Assyrians, and Turkmen.
In Aleppo, Kurdish presence was more limited but strategically significant. Two neighborhoods—Sheikh Maksoud and Ashrafiya—served as urban enclaves under Kurdish control since 2012. Though surrounded by regime and opposition-held areas, these zones functioned as self-administered spaces with their own security forces, educational institutions, and political structures.
2.2 The Fall of Assad and the Rise of Ahmed al-Sharaa
The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024 marked a pivotal shift. Al-Sharaa, a senior commander in Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), emerged as the dominant figure in a broad coalition of rebel factions that captured Damascus after a rapid offensive. While al-Sharaa distanced himself from HTS’s more extreme Salafist roots, his government retained strong Islamist influences, raising concerns among secular and minority groups, particularly the Kurds.
The new administration positioned itself as a unifying force, pledging national reconciliation and territorial reintegration. However, its vision of unity emphasized centralized control and adherence to national sovereignty, which clashed directly with Kurdish demands for constitutional recognition of federalism and cultural rights.
- The March 2025 Integration Agreement: A Fragile Compromise
In March 2025, mediated by the United Nations and regional actors including Jordan and Egypt, the AANES and the Government of Syria signed the Aleppo Framework Agreement (AFA), aimed at integrating Kurdish-held territories into the national framework. Key provisions included:
The gradual integration of SDF units into the restructured Syrian Army.
Recognition of Kurdish language and cultural rights in education.
A five-year transitional period during which the AANES would retain limited administrative control.
Joint security committees in disputed areas, including Aleppo’s Kurdish enclaves.
Despite initial optimism, implementation stalled almost immediately. Kurdish officials cited delays in security coordination, lack of progress on federalism in the draft constitution, and the continued presence of Islamist militias in northern Syria as reasons for non-compliance. Meanwhile, Damascus accused the SDF of maintaining parallel institutions and resisting disarmament.
By late 2025, tensions escalated in Aleppo, where local government forces began obstructing traffic between Kurdish zones and surrounding areas, and reports emerged of surveillance and arbitrary detentions targeting Kurdish activists.
- The January 2026 Aleppo Crisis: Events and Escalation
4.1 Outbreak of Violence (January 6–10, 2026)
The violence erupted on January 6, 2026, following the killing of a Syrian security officer near a checkpoint in Ashrafiya. Kurdish sources claimed the officer opened fire first; government officials accused the SDF of an assassination. Within hours, government forces launched artillery and drone strikes on both enclaves. Kurdish fighters retaliated with sniper fire and roadside explosives.
Over the next five days, the conflict intensified. According to Syria’s Ministry of Health, 23 people died, mostly civilians caught in crossfire. However, Ilham Ahmad, co-chair of the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), the political wing of the SDF, claimed that 48 individuals—including 12 women and children—were killed in what she described as “targeted government attacks.” Among the dead were several SDF members who detonated explosive vests during close-quarters combat, a tactic increasingly used in urban defense scenarios.
Satellite imagery analyzed by conflict monitoring groups confirmed widespread destruction in both neighborhoods, with residential buildings, schools, and medical clinics damaged or destroyed.
4.2 Evacuation and Withdrawal (January 11, 2026)
On January 10, a ceasefire brokered by Russian and Turkish envoys led to an evacuation agreement. Under the terms, the remaining SDF fighters and their families would be safely transported to Hasakah and Qamishli in the northeast. By 3 a.m. on January 11, the last Kurdish fighters had left Aleppo, ending 14 years of continuous Kurdish presence in the city.
The withdrawal was televised by Syrian state media (Ekhbariya TV) as a “restoration of sovereignty,” while Kurdish media framed it as a “forced displacement” orchestrated by Islamist-led forces.
- The Qamishli Protests: Diaspora Memory and Resistance
On January 13, 2026, several thousand Kurdish civilians gathered in Qamishli, the de facto capital of AANES, to protest the loss of Aleppo and honor those killed in the violence. Despite heavy rain, demonstrators marched through the city center, carrying banners with the SDF logo, portraits of fallen fighters, and slogans such as “Aleppo Will Return” and “No Unity Without Justice.”
Notably, the protests commemorated suicide attackers—referred to as şehîd (martyrs) in Kurdish discourse—elevating them as symbols of resistance. This narrative of sacrifice, rooted in Kurdish historiography and the legacy of resistance against Turkey and ISIS, has helped galvanize national sentiment but also draws criticism for its glorification of violence.
The protests were largely peaceful but were met with a significant security presence. Kurdish authorities, wary of provoking further conflict, officially endorsed the demonstrations while urging restraint.
- Political Implications: The Collapse of the Integration Framework
6.1 Kurdish Response: Nullification and Non-Compliance
On the same day as the protests, Ilham Ahmad declared the March 2025 Integration Agreement “null and void” should the government launch further offensives against Kurdish regions. This conditional stance reflects the existential fears of the Kurdish leadership, which perceives the current administration as inherently hostile due to its Islamist orientation and historical antagonism toward Kurdish autonomy.
Kurdish officials have since suspended all coordination with Damascus on security, economic, and administrative matters. Parallel institutions in the northeast continue to operate independently.
6.2 Government Position: Sovereignty and Centralization
The al-Sharaa government has reaffirmed its commitment to “one flag, one army, one law,” rejecting any form of federalism or regional autonomy. It argues that the SDF withdrawal from Aleppo demonstrates the inevitability of national integration, regardless of resistance.
However, critics argue that this hardline approach alienates key stakeholders and risks reigniting conflict. As one Damascus-based political analyst noted: “You cannot unify a country through coercion. The Kurds are not just another militia—they are a nation with centuries of history in this land.”
- Broader Implications for Regional Stability
7.1 Role of External Actors
Turkey: Ankara has historically opposed Kurdish autonomy in Syria, viewing the PYD/YPG as an extension of the PKK. While Turkey did not directly intervene in the Aleppo crisis, its silence was interpreted as tacit approval. Turkish officials reportedly welcomed the SDF’s withdrawal as a “step toward normalization.”
Russia and Iran: Both powers, traditionally aligned with Damascus, expressed concern over civilian casualties but framed the events as an “internal matter.” Russia continues to mediate between the parties but has limited leverage over al-Sharaa’s Islamist allies.
United States and EU: Western nations condemned the violence and called for a return to dialogue. The U.S. State Department stated that “forced displacement of ethnic communities has no place in a democratic Syria.” However, with reduced military presence in Syria, their influence remains diplomatic.
7.2 Risk of Wider Conflict
The expulsion of Kurds from Aleppo could set a precedent for operations in other contested zones, including Hasakah, Raqqa, and al-Hasakah. Kurdish leaders warn that any attempt to dismantle AANES institutions will be met with armed resistance. Given the SDF’s control over key oil and agricultural regions, such a conflict could destabilize the entire northeast and threaten food and energy security.
Moreover, the crisis may embolden other ethnic and sectarian groups to resist central authority, potentially fragmenting Syria along new lines.
- Conclusion
The January 2026 conflict in Aleppo is not merely a localized security incident but a symptom of deeper structural contradictions in Syria’s post-war order. President al-Sharaa’s centralization project, while appealing to nationalist and Islamist constituencies, fails to accommodate the legitimate political aspirations of Syria’s Kurdish minority. The expulsion of Kurdish forces from Aleppo—despite the existence of a signed integration agreement—reveals the limits of diplomacy in the absence of trust, mutual recognition, and equitable power-sharing.
The protests in Qamishli symbolize more than grief; they represent a resilient, mobilized community determined to defend its autonomy. As Syria stands at a crossroads, the path forward cannot be one of coercion or erasure. Sustainable peace will require a renegotiation of national identity—one that embraces pluralism, decentralization, and constitutional guarantees for minority rights.
Without such a vision, the dream of a unified Syria risks becoming a justification for renewed repression—and another chapter in a conflict that refuses to end.
References
Syrian Ministry of Health. (2026). Preliminary Report on Casualties in the January 2026 Aleppo Clashes. Damascus: Government Press Office.
Ahmad, I. (2026, January 13). Press Conference, Qamishli. Syrian Democratic Council.
Reuters. (2026, January 13). Kurds protest Aleppo violence as fears of wider conflict grow.
United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). (2026). Syria Humanitarian Bulletin – January 15, 2026.
International Crisis Group. (2025). The Future of Kurdish Autonomy in Syria. Middle East Report No. 244.
Al-Sharaa, A. (2025). Speech at the National Unity Conference, Damascus.
Human Rights Watch. (2026). “Forced Displacement and the Battle for Aleppo”: Abuses in the January 2026 Conflict.
Ekhbariya TV. (2026, January 11). “Last SDF fighters leave Aleppo” [Television broadcast].
Lund, A. (2024). The Fragmented State: Sovereignty and Power in Post-War Syria. Oxford University Press.
SDC & Government of Syria. (2025). Framework Agreement for the Reintegration of Northeastern Syria (Aleppo Framework Agreement). Mediated by UN Special Envoy G. Geffen.
Keywords: Syria, Kurds, Aleppo, SDF, post-conflict reconstruction, federalism, Ahmed al-Sharaa, ethnic conflict, autonomy, integration.
This paper is part of an ongoing research project on minority rights and state formation in post-conflict Middle Eastern states, funded by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.