Case Study: Operation Enduring Peace and the Jonglei Offensive

Background Context

South Sudan, the world’s youngest nation (independent since 2011), has faced chronic instability since its brutal 2013-2018 civil war. The conflict between the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) government forces and the SPLA-In Opposition (SPLA-IO) killed approximately 400,000 people and was characterized by ethnic violence, mass displacement, and widespread human rights abuses.

The 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) brought a fragile peace, incorporating opposition leader Riek Machar as First Vice President in a unity government. However, the agreement has faced persistent implementation challenges, with localized violence continuing across the country.

South Sudan Orders Mass Evacuation Ahead of Major Military Operation

South Sudan’s military has ordered the immediate evacuation of all civilians, UN personnel, and aid workers from three counties in Jonglei State as it prepares a major offensive against opposition forces.

Operation Details

The South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) announced “Operation Enduring Peace” will target areas in Nyirol, Uror, and Akobo counties, giving UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) staff and NGO workers 48 hours to leave. Civilians were directed to evacuate immediately to government-controlled areas.

Escalating Conflict

The fighting represents the most intense clashes since 2017, with fierce battles occurring in eastern Jonglei State along the Ethiopian border. The military is attempting to stop an advance by SPLA-IO forces loyal to Vice President Riek Machar.

Recent developments include:

• SPLA-IO’s call last week for forces to march on the capital Juba
• The seizure of Pajut town earlier this month, threatening the state capital of Bor
• 180,000 people already displaced in Jonglei State

Humanitarian Response

UNMISS stated its peacekeepers in Akobo remain in place to de-escalate tensions, though it’s unclear if staff stayed in other counties. Médecins Sans Frontières evacuated key personnel from Akobo following security warnings.

Current Crisis: Jonglei State Escalation

Geographic Significance: Jonglei State, located in eastern South Sudan bordering Ethiopia, is the country’s largest state and strategically significant. Control of Jonglei provides access to oil-producing regions and vital transportation corridors.

Recent Developments (January 2026):

• Fighting has intensified to levels unseen since 2017, according to UNMISS
• SPLA-IO forces captured Pajut town in northern Jonglei, threatening the state capital Bor
• Vice President Machar’s forces issued a call to march on the national capital Juba, signaling potential collapse of the unity government
• 180,000 people displaced within Jonglei State alone
• Government forces ordered civilian and humanitarian evacuations from Nyirol, Uror, and Akobo counties ahead of major offensive

Critical Analysis

Why This Escalation Matters:

1. Breakdown of Peace Architecture: The current fighting suggests the 2018 peace deal may be collapsing. When a sitting vice president’s forces are called to march on the capital, the unity government framework has fundamentally failed.
2. Humanitarian Catastrophe: The forced evacuation order affects hundreds of thousands of civilians in a region already facing food insecurity. Medical charity MSF’s withdrawal from Akobo removes critical healthcare access during active conflict.
3. Regional Spillover Risk: South Sudan’s instability affects neighboring countries. Previous conflicts generated massive refugee flows into Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Sudan. The current fighting occurs along the Ethiopian border during a period when Ethiopia itself faces internal tensions.
4. UN Mission Under Pressure: UNMISS faces an impossible situation—ordered to evacuate while maintaining peacekeeping mandates. The decision to keep peacekeepers in Akobo while evacuating other personnel suggests the mission is stretched beyond capacity.

Root Causes of Renewed Conflict

Immediate Triggers:

• Delayed elections (originally scheduled for 2023, postponed to 2026)
• Disputes over security sector reform and military integration
• Competition for control of oil revenues and resources in Jonglei

Structural Factors:

• Ethnic tensions between Dinka (President Salva Kiir’s base) and Nuer (Machar’s base) communities
• Weak state institutions and governance failures
• Economic collapse and resource scarcity exacerbating local conflicts
• Proliferation of armed groups beyond government and SPLA-IO control

Outlook: Three Scenarios

Scenario 1: Limited Government Victory (40% probability)

Description: Government forces successfully push back SPLA-IO in Jonglei, reestablishing control over Bor and key towns. The unity government survives but remains dysfunctional.

Indicators to Watch:

• Government captures or holds Bor within 2-4 weeks
• Regional mediators (IGAD, African Union) broker ceasefire
• Machar remains in position but politically weakened

Implications:

• Temporary reduction in large-scale fighting
• Continued localized violence and instability
• Humanitarian crisis persists with 300,000+ displaced
• Elections further delayed, possibly to 2027

Scenario 2: Full-Scale Civil War Resumption (35% probability)

Description: Fighting spreads beyond Jonglei to other states. The unity government collapses, with Machar establishing alternative authority in opposition-controlled areas.

Indicators to Watch:

• SPLA-IO forces reach Bor or advance toward Juba
• Fighting spreads to Unity State, Upper Nile State, or Central Equatoria
• Mass defections from government forces
• Regional countries begin positioning for intervention

Implications:

• Return to 2013-2017 civil war conditions
• Mass displacement (500,000-1 million additional refugees)
• Famine conditions in conflict zones
• Potential regional intervention or peacekeeping force expansion
• Complete humanitarian access restrictions

Scenario 3: Negotiated De-escalation (25% probability)

Description: Regional pressure and international diplomacy produce a ceasefire before government offensive fully materializes. New power-sharing arrangements or transitional mechanisms established.

Indicators to Watch:

• Emergency regional summits convened
• International community applies coordinated pressure
• Both sides agree to dialogue before major Jonglei offensive
• UN Security Council emergency session

Implications:

• Temporary pause in fighting within 1-2 weeks
• Renewed peace process with strengthened monitoring
• Humanitarian access gradually restored
• Political uncertainty continues but war avoided

Medium-Term Outlook (6-18 months)

Regardless of immediate scenario, South Sudan faces several persistent challenges:

Economic Collapse: Oil production, which funds 90% of government revenue, remains below pre-civil war levels. Sustained conflict will further damage oil infrastructure and deter investment.

Climate and Food Security: Severe flooding in recent years has displaced communities and destroyed agricultural land. Continued conflict prevents recovery and planting, creating famine conditions.

Regional Dynamics: Sudan’s own civil war limits its ability to influence South Sudan. Ethiopia’s internal situation reduces its mediation capacity. Uganda remains the key external actor but has competing interests.

International Engagement: Donor fatigue and competing global crises (Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan) mean reduced attention and resources for South Sudan. UNMISS faces potential mandate reduction or withdrawal pressure.

Singapore Impact Analysis

Direct Impacts: Limited but Present

1. Humanitarian and Diplomatic Engagement

Singapore has maintained modest engagement with South Sudan through multilateral channels:

• Financial contributions to UN humanitarian appeals and peacekeeping operations
• Capacity-building programs through Singapore Cooperation Programme
• Diplomatic representation through Singapore’s embassy in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Current Considerations:

• Singapore may face requests for increased UN peacekeeping contributions or humanitarian funding
• Singapore citizens and businesses in the region (primarily in neighboring Ethiopia and Kenya) should monitor evacuation advisories
• No significant Singaporean business presence in South Sudan itself

2. Regional Stability Concerns

Singapore has strategic interests in maintaining stability in the Horn of Africa and East Africa region:

• Shipping routes through the Red Sea and around the Horn of Africa affect Singapore’s maritime trade
• Regional instability can disrupt supply chains and create broader security challenges
• Singapore maintains military training facilities and partnerships in the region

3. Oil Market Implications

South Sudan’s oil production (approximately 150,000-170,000 barrels per day) is a minor factor in global markets, but conflict-driven disruptions contribute to:

• Global oil price volatility, affecting Singapore’s refining and petrochemical sectors
• Uncertainty in energy markets during ongoing Middle East tensions
• Singapore’s strategic petroleum reserves and pricing strategies

Indirect Impacts: More Significant

1. Refugee and Migration Flows

While refugees from South Sudan primarily remain in neighboring countries, large-scale displacement affects:

• International humanitarian system capacity and funding
• Potential long-term migration patterns that could eventually reach Singapore through irregular channels
• Pressure on international resettlement programs

2. UN System and Peacekeeping

Singapore is an active participant in UN peacekeeping and multilateral security frameworks:

• Precedents set in South Sudan affect global peacekeeping doctrine
• Questions about UNMISS effectiveness and civilian protection influence future mission design
• Singapore’s own peacekeeping contributions and training programs reference these experiences

3. Governance and State-Building Lessons

As a small, multiethnic state that successfully navigated post-independence challenges, Singapore’s experience is often cited in development circles:

• South Sudan’s failures highlight the difficulty of state-building in ethnically divided societies
• Contrast between Singapore’s trajectory and South Sudan’s underscores importance of effective governance, economic development, and inclusive politics
• Singapore’s technical assistance programs in governance may face scrutiny regarding effectiveness

4. Humanitarian Principles and International Law

The forced evacuation order raises questions about:

• Protection of civilians in conflict zones
• Humanitarian access and neutrality principles
• International humanitarian law compliance

Singapore, as a strong advocate for international law and multilateralism, has interests in ensuring these principles are upheld. Precedents set in South Sudan affect broader international norms.

5. Economic Development and Fragility

Singapore’s development cooperation focuses on governance, urban planning, and economic management. South Sudan represents an extreme case of state fragility:

• Resource curse dynamics (oil dependence) versus Singapore’s diversification model
• Importance of meritocracy and multi-ethnic cohesion
• Role of strategic planning and institutional capacity

Singapore Policy Considerations

1. Multilateral Engagement

• Continue support for UN peacekeeping and humanitarian operations
• Advocate for regional mediation through IGAD and African Union
• Support diplomatic efforts to revive peace process

2. Humanitarian Response

• Consider targeted humanitarian contributions through established channels (UNHCR, WFP, UNICEF)
• Provide technical expertise in areas of Singapore’s strength (healthcare, logistics, urban planning for displacement camps)

3. Regional Security Monitoring

• Monitor spillover effects on Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda where Singapore has stronger interests
• Coordinate with ASEAN partners on collective response to African crises
• Maintain awareness of Singaporean citizens and businesses in affected region

4. Development Cooperation Lessons

• Incorporate South Sudan case study into Singapore’s international development programs
• Emphasize governance, institution-building, and economic diversification in technical assistance
• Share Singapore’s experience in managing ethnic diversity and building national identity

5. Private Sector Awareness

• Advisory for Singaporean companies operating in East Africa regarding regional instability risks
• Insurance and risk assessment considerations for regional operations
• Potential opportunities in post-conflict reconstruction (if peace is achieved)

Conclusion

The South Sudan crisis represents a critical test of the international peace and security architecture in Africa. The current escalation threatens to undo fragile progress since 2018 and return the world’s youngest nation to full-scale civil war.

For Singapore, the impact is primarily indirect but significant in terms of multilateral engagement, regional stability interests, and broader lessons for governance and development. While Singapore has limited direct stakes in South Sudan, the country’s commitment to international law, effective multilateralism, and regional stability means the crisis warrants continued attention.

The coming weeks will determine whether South Sudan descends into renewed civil war or finds a path toward de-escalation. The international community’s response—including contributions from middle powers like Singapore—will shape not only South Sudan’s future but also precedents for managing state fragility and conflict in the 21st century.

Key Monitoring Points for Singapore Stakeholders:

• UNMISS mandate discussions at UN Security Council
• Regional mediation efforts and their effectiveness
• Humanitarian funding appeals and Singapore’s response
• Impact on regional stability in Ethiopia and East Africa
• Oil market effects and energy security implications
• Lessons learned for Singapore’s development cooperation programs