Title: Serbia’s Diversification of Energy Supplies: A Step towards EU Integration and Away from Russian Dependence
Abstract: This paper examines Serbia’s efforts to reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas and diversify its energy supplies through European Union (EU) mechanisms. As Serbia seeks to join the EU, it faces pressure to align its energy policies with EU demands, particularly in reducing cash flows to Russia amidst the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. We analyze the country’s progress in securing alternative energy sources, including its participation in the EU’s communal gas-buying initiative, and the implications of this shift for Serbia’s relations with Russia and the EU.
Introduction: Serbia, a Balkan country with a long history of cultural and economic ties with Russia, has been one of the few remaining buyers of Russian natural gas in Europe. However, with the EU’s increasing pressure to reduce dependence on Russian energy, Serbia has been forced to reassess its energy policies and seek alternative supplies. In this paper, we explore Serbia’s efforts to diversify its energy sources, its participation in EU energy initiatives, and the broader implications of this shift for the country’s relations with Russia and the EU.
Background: Serbia’s dependence on Russian natural gas has been a significant factor in its relations with Russia. Over 80% of Serbia’s natural gas supplies come from Russia, making it one of the most dependent countries in Europe. However, the EU has been actively seeking to reduce its own dependence on Russian energy, particularly in the wake of the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As a result, Serbia has faced increasing pressure to diversify its energy supplies and reduce its reliance on Russian gas.
Serbia’s Energy Diversification Efforts: In response to EU pressure, Serbia has been actively seeking alternative energy sources. In 2022, the country failed to secure a new long-term contract with Russia’s Gazprom, and a short-term deal reached in December expires on March 31. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has stated that the country is aiming to secure 500 million cubic meters of gas annually, approximately a fifth of its needs, through the EU’s communal gas-buying initiative, which it joined last year. Additionally, Serbia is already purchasing gas from Azerbaijan via Bulgaria, and construction of a gas pipeline to North Macedonia, which would give Serbia access to liquefied natural gas from Greece, is expected to start this year.
Implications for Serbia-Russia Relations: Serbia’s efforts to diversify its energy supplies have significant implications for its relations with Russia. While Vucic has emphasized the importance of maintaining good relations with Russia, the country’s decision to reduce its dependence on Russian gas is likely to be seen as a significant shift in its foreign policy orientation. Russia has been a key supporter of Serbia’s position on Kosovo, a former southern province that declared independence in 2008. However, Serbia’s decision to align its energy policies with EU demands may strain its relations with Russia, particularly if Moscow perceives this move as a betrayal of their long-standing friendship.
Implications for Serbia-EU Relations: Serbia’s decision to diversify its energy supplies and reduce its dependence on Russian gas is also likely to have significant implications for its relations with the EU. The EU has long demanded that Serbia boost the rule of law, media freedoms, and root out organized crime and corruption if it wants to join the bloc. While Vucic has committed to joining the EU, the country’s progress in meeting these demands has been slow. The EU’s pressure on Serbia to reduce its dependence on Russian energy may be seen as a test of the country’s commitment to EU integration and its willingness to align its policies with EU demands.
Conclusion: Serbia’s efforts to diversify its energy supplies and reduce its dependence on Russian gas represent a significant shift in the country’s foreign policy orientation. As Serbia seeks to join the EU, it faces increasing pressure to align its energy policies with EU demands, particularly in reducing cash flows to Russia amidst the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. While this shift is likely to strain Serbia’s relations with Russia, it may also pave the way for closer ties with the EU and ultimately, EU membership. However, the country’s progress in meeting EU demands on the rule of law, media freedoms, and corruption will be crucial in determining the success of its EU integration efforts.
Recommendations:
Serbia should continue to diversify its energy supplies and reduce its dependence on Russian gas, while also exploring alternative energy sources, such as renewable energy.
The EU should provide support and guidance to Serbia in its efforts to align its energy policies with EU demands, including technical assistance and capacity-building programs.
Serbia should prioritize the implementation of EU-driven reforms, particularly in the areas of the rule of law, media freedoms, and corruption, to demonstrate its commitment to EU integration and values.