An Analysis of Presidential Instability in Peru: The Case of José Jeri and the Gathering Momentum for Removal
Abstract
This paper examines the phenomenon of recurring presidential instability in Peru through a hypothetical scenario set in 2025–2026, wherein President José Jeri faces a congressional motion for removal shortly after assuming office. Drawing on the provided text fragment (which references a Reuters file photo and a Straits Times article dated February 13, 2026), the analysis explores the institutional, political, and historical factors that contribute to Peru’s chronic executive-legislative conflicts. The paper argues that Peru’s fragmented multiparty system, coupled with a constitutional framework that facilitates presidential removal on vague grounds, perpetuates a cycle of governance crises. It concludes with reflections on the implications for democratic consolidation and institutional reform.
- Introduction
Peru has experienced profound political turbulence in the 21st century, with multiple presidents impeached, removed, or forced to resign amid corruption scandals, social unrest, and legislative hostility. The hypothetical ascension of José Jeri in October 2025—following the removal of his predecessor, Dina Boluarte—and the subsequent legislative efforts to oust him by early 2026, as suggested in the provided text, exemplify this persistent instability. This paper uses this scenario as a case study to analyze the underlying causes and consequences of Peru’s presidential fragility. The analysis is grounded in comparative politics literature on presidential systems, with a focus on Peru’s unique constitutional and party system challenges.
- Historical Context: Peru’s “Presidential Merry-Go-Round”
Since 2016, Peru has had six presidents, many of whom left office prematurely due to congressional opposition or public pressure. Key precedents include:
Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (2016–2018): Resigned amid corruption allegations and impending impeachment.
Martín Vizcarra (2018–2020): Impeached by Congress over “moral incapacity” claims.
Manuel Merino (2020): Lasted five days before resigning after protests.
Pedro Castillo (2021–2022): Impeached after attempting to dissolve Congress.
Dina Boluarte (2022–2025): Assumed office after Castillo’s removal; faced mass protests and eventual impeachment, as referenced in the text.
This pattern reflects systemic issues: a weak party system, personalized politics, and a constitution that allows Congress to remove presidents with relative ease.
- Constitutional and Institutional Framework
Peru’s 1993 Constitution, amended multiple times, provides two primary mechanisms for presidential removal:
Impeachment for “Permanent Moral Incapacity” (Article 113): A vaguely defined criterion that has been weaponized by opposition-led congresses.
Vacancy due to “Moral or Physical Incapacity” (Article 115): Requires 87 votes (two-thirds of Congress) but has been invoked controversially.
The hypothetical case of Jeri illustrates how these provisions enable legislative dominance over the executive, creating a hyper-parliamentarized presidentialism where presidents struggle to govern without stable coalitions.
- Political Dynamics: Fragmentation and Polarization
Peru’s legislature is characterized by extreme multiparty fragmentation. With no single party holding a majority, presidents must negotiate with shifting alliances, often led by opportunistic leaders. The text’s mention of lawmakers “gathering support” for Jeri’s removal suggests:
Strategic Opposition: Parties may oppose the executive to gain leverage or divert attention from their own controversies.
Low Institutional Trust: Public disillusionment with both executive and legislative branches fuels cyclical crises.
Media and Public Opinion: Outlets like The Straits Times (the implied source) often highlight Peru’s instability, affecting investor confidence and international perception.
- Case Analysis: The Hypothetical Jeri Presidency (2025–2026)
Though fictional, the Jeri scenario aligns with Peru’s recent trends:
Rapid Turnover: Jeri’s swearing-in on October 10, 2025, after Boluarte’s removal, mirrors past transitions (e.g., Merino succeeding Vizcarra).
Swift Opposition: By February 2026, lawmakers are already mobilizing for his removal, indicating deep-seated political strife.
International Coverage: Reuters and The Straits Times (implied by “ST’s newsletters”) document the instability, underscoring its global relevance.
This case exemplifies how Peruvian presidents become lame ducks almost immediately, undermining policy continuity and state capacity.
- Implications for Democratic Governance
6.1. Erosion of Executive Authority
Frequent removals weaken the presidency, leading to bureaucratic inertia and short-term policymaking.
6.2. Public Disenchantment
Citizens grow weary of political elites, as reflected in low approval ratings for both Jeri and Congress in the scenario.
6.3. Economic and Social Consequences
Investor uncertainty hampers growth, while social programs stall amid governance gaps.
6.4. Regional and Global Impact
Peru’s instability affects regional diplomacy (e.g., Pacific Alliance, APEC) and foreign aid partnerships.
- Comparative Perspectives
Other Latin American countries (e.g., Brazil, Ecuador) also face executive-legislative conflicts, but Peru stands out for the frequency and ease of presidential removal. Unlike the U.S. (where impeachment is rare) or Chile (stable coalitions), Peru’s combination of a weak party system and permissive constitutional rules creates a uniquely volatile environment.
- Recommendations for Institutional Reform
To break the cycle, Peru could consider:
Clarifying “Moral Incapacity” via constitutional amendment to prevent partisan misuse.
Strengthening Political Parties through electoral reforms that reduce fragmentation.
Promoting Dialogue Mechanisms between executive and legislative branches.
Enhancing Judicial Independence to ensure impartial oversight of removal processes.
- Conclusion
The hypothetical effort to remove President José Jeri in early 2026—as inferred from the provided text—is emblematic of Peru’s enduring governance crisis. While specific to this scenario, the dynamics reflect real historical patterns: constitutional ambiguity, legislative fragmentation, and polarized politics that collectively undermine democratic stability. Addressing these root causes requires comprehensive institutional reforms and a commitment to depersonalizing political conflict. Until then, Peru risks remaining trapped in a cycle of presidential turnover that stifles development and erodes public trust.
References (Selected)
Levitsky, S., & Zavaleta, M. (2016). Why No Party Building in Peru? Journal of Democracy.
Tanaka, M. (2021). Peru’s Permanent Crisis. Latin American Politics and Society.
Reuters. (2025, October 10). Peru’s New President Jeri Sworn In After Boluarte Removal [Hypothetical citation].
The Straits Times. (2026, February 13). Peru Lawmakers Gather Support to Debate Ousting President Jeri