Analysis of Populism and Nationalism: Global Impact with Focus on Singapore, Asia, and ASEAN

The Global Resurgence of Populism and Nationalism

The article highlights a critical moment in the ongoing struggle between centrist politics and populist-nationalist movements globally. The author identifies Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump, and J.D. Vance as key figures who have made “aggressive nationalism and chaos” prominent enough to create a temporary backlash against far-right populism in some recent elections.

Key Characteristics of Contemporary Populism and Nationalism

1. Anti-establishment rhetoric: Populist movements position themselves against traditional “elites” and political establishments.
2. Nationalist identity politics: Emphasising national sovereignty and cultural identity as being under threat.
3. Deliberate chaos as strategy: The article suggests that “breaking things” is sometimes the appeal of populist movements to voters frustrated with the status quo.
4. External interference: The Romanian case highlights how foreign powers (Russia) may amplify populist movements to destabilise democratic systems.
5. Exploitation of economic grievances: Populists channel genuine economic anxieties of voters who feel left behind by globalisation.

The Asian Context: Singapore, ASEAN, and Regional Implications

While the article focuses on Western democracies and Eastern Europe, the trends described have significant implications for Singapore and ASEAN nations.

Singapore: Vulnerability and Resilience

Singapore, despite its stability, faces similar challenges from populism and nationalism:

1. Economic vulnerabilities: As a trade-dependent economy, Singapore is especially susceptible to nationalist trade policies and protectionism, as exemplified by Trump’s administration.
2. Social cohesion challenges: Singapore’s multiethnic, multicultural society could be vulnerable to identity-based politics that have fueled populism elsewhere.
3. Information warfare protection: Given the documented Russian interference in Romania’s elections via social media, Singapore’s own cybersecurity and information environment protections become crucial.
4. Governance model as buffer: Singapore’s technocratic governance model and focus on pragmatic problem-solving rather than ideological purity may offer some protection against populist appeals.

ASEAN: Regional Dynamics

ASEAN faces unique challenges when dealing with populism and nationalism:

1. Democratic backsliding: Several ASEAN nations have experienced democratic erosion with populist leaders leveraging nationalism to consolidate power.
2. Balancing great power competition: ASEAN’s position between China and the US means that nationalist politics in either superpower directly impact regional stability.
3. Regional integration challenges: Nationalism inherently challenges ASEAN’s integration projects and consensus-based decision-making.
4. Varying political systems: The diverse political systems within ASEAN (from Singapore’s managed democracy to Indonesia’s more robust electoral democracy) respond differently to populist pressures.

Existing Trends in Asian Populism

1. Philippines: The Duterte administration showcased populist governance with nationalist overtones, using anti-elite messaging and promises of radical change.
2. Indonesia: Religious and nationalist sentiments have increasingly influenced electoral politics.
3. Thailand: Political polarization between populist movements and traditional power structures.
4. Myanmar: The military coup represents an extreme nationalist response to perceived threats to traditional power structures.

Strategic Implications for Singapore and ASEAN

Economic Vulnerability

1. Trade disruption: Nationalist economic policies threaten the open trading systems on which Singapore and many ASEAN economies depend.
2. Investment climate: Political instability from populist governance can deter the foreign investment crucial to regional development.
3. Supply chain reconfigurations: Nationalist “friend-shoring” policies may force painful economic realignments.

Security Considerations

1. Excellent power dynamics: Populist nationalism in the US or China could force painful choices between major powers on Singapore and ASEAN.
2. Regional cooperation: Nationalist politics make achieving an ASEAN consensus on critical issues like the South China Sea more difficult.
3. Domestic security: Identity-based politics could exacerbate existing ethnic or religious tensions within diverse ASEAN societies.

Governance Challenges

1. Democratic resilience: The article’s central thesis—that centrists must deliver meaningful change to survive—applies equally to democratic systems in ASEAN.
2. Institutional strength: The quality of institutions becomes crucial in resisting populist pressures and maintaining stability.
3. Balancing act: Singapore and other ASEAN governments must address legitimate grievances that fuel populism without compromising on core governance principles.

Conclusion: Lessons for Singapore and ASEAN

The article’s warning that “without a radical transformation in their approach, this reprieve for traditional parties of the centre right and left will be short-lived” offers a crucial lesson for Singapore and ASEAN. The region must:

1. Deliver tangible economic benefits to citizens feeling left behind by globalisation and technological change.
2. Strengthen institutional safeguards against information warfare and foreign interference.
3. Maintain pragmatic, results-oriented governance that addresses actual problems rather than stoking cultural divisions.
4. Reinforce regional cooperation through ASEAN to provide collective resilience against nationalist pressures.
5. Develop new social compacts that balance economic growth with inclusion, potentially heading off populist appeals.

The article identifies a challenge—that traditional political elites must demonstrate the capacity to deliver meaningful change—that applies equally to Singapore and ASEAN’s leadership if they wish to maintain stability and prosperity in an increasingly populist global environment.

US and Russian Populism: Impact on Asia, Singapore, and ASEAN

The Nature of American and Russian Populism

American Populism Under Trump

The resurgence of populist nationalism in the United States has been embodied by Donald Trump’s presidency and its continuation into his second term following the 2024 election. American populism has developed several distinctive characteristics:

1. America First Doctrine: A foreign policy approach prioritising narrowly defined national interests over multilateral cooperation, with scepticism toward international institutions and alliance commitments.
2. Economic Nationalism: Characterised by protectionist trade policies, including tariffs against both adversaries and traditional allies, with a particular focus on trade deficits as indicators of national “winning” or “losing.”
3. Anti-immigration Rhetoric: Positioning immigration as an economic and cultural threat to American workers and identity, with enforcement-heavy approaches to border security.
4. Anti-establishment Positioning: Framing traditional political elites, career bureaucrats, and experts (“the deep state”) as obstacles to the valid will of the people.
5. Information Warfare: Systematic delegitimisation of mainstream media and institutional information sources in favour of alternative narratives that reinforce the populist worldview.

The article mentions explicitly J.D. Vance’s intervention in Romanian politics, illustrating how American populism has sought to export its approach by supporting like-minded movements in other countries, creating a loose international network of populist actors.

Russian Populism Under Putin

Russian populism under Vladimir Putin operates differently but with complementary effects to its American counterpart:

1. Revanchist Nationalism: Centred on restoring Russia’s perceived rightful place as a great power, with particular focus on the “near abroad” of former Soviet states.
2. Information Operations: Sophisticated deployment of disinformation campaigns in targeted countries (as evidenced by the Romanian election interference via TikTok mentioned in the article).
3. Hybrid Warfare: Combining conventional military threats with economic coercion, cyber operations, and political interference to achieve strategic objectives.
4. Conservative Value Positioning: Presenting Russia as a defender of traditional values against Western liberalism and progressivism.
5. Personality Cult Leadership: Centralising around a strong leader figure who embodies the nation’s strength and values.

Strategic Convergence and Divergence

While fundamentally pursuing different objectives, American and Russian populism share tactical approaches that collectively weaken the liberal international order:

1. Bilateral Transactionalism: Both prefer direct, transactional relationships over multilateral frameworks, weakening international institutions.
2. Sovereignty Emphasis: Both invoke sovereignty as justification for rejecting international norms when inconvenient.
3. Democratic Erosion: Both employ rhetoric and tactics that undermine democratic institutions and norms domestically and internationally.
4. Media Manipulation: Both utilise information operations to shape narratives favourable to their interests.

The article suggests this convergence creates challenges for countries caught between these powers, with particular implications for Asia.

Impact on Asia, Singapore, and ASEAN

Regional Security Architecture

1. Alliance Uncertainty: Trump’s transactional approach to alliances has created profound uncertainty in Asia about American security commitments, particularly for treaty allies like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines.
2. Power Vacuum Dynamics: American retrenchment creates opportunities for both Chinese assertion and Russian influence-building in the region.
3. Defence Self-sufficiency: Countries like Japan and South Korea have accelerated defence modernisation in response to uncertain American commitment, while ASEAN states must recalibrate security strategies.
4. Strategic Hedging: Singapore and other ASEAN states face increasing pressure to balance relations between competing great powers, with potentially higher costs for maintaining strategic autonomy.

Economic Disruption

1. Trade Policy Unpredictability: Trump’s willingness to use tariffs as leverage affects export-dependent Asian economies, including Singapore, which relies on an open trading system.
2. Supply Chain Reconfiguration: “Friend-shoring” and economic nationalism force painful supply chain adjustments across ASEAN’s manufacturing economies.
3. Investment Uncertainty: Political volatility and policy unpredictability associated with populist governance dampen investor confidence in emerging ASEAN economies.
4. Energy Market Volatility: Russian energy politics and potential sanctions create additional challenges for energy-importing Asian nations.

Singapore’s Particular Vulnerabilities

As a small, trade-dependent city-state, Singapore faces specific challenges:

1. Economic Exposure: Singapore’s trade-to-GDP ratio exceeds 300%, making it exceptionally vulnerable to protectionist trade policies and supply chain disruptions.
2. Strategic Balancing Act: Singapore must maintain positive relations with both the US and China while preserving independence, a task made more difficult by populist unpredictability.
3. Information Resilience: Singapore’s multicultural society requires particular vigilance against information operations that could exploit social divisions, as seen in the Romanian case.
4. Regional Stability Dependence: Singapore’s prosperity depends on regional stability that populist-fueled great power competition threatens.
5. Technological Vulnerability: As a digitally advanced society, Singapore faces heightened risk from cyber operations associated with Russian hybrid warfare tactics.

ASEAN’s Institutional Challenges

ASEAN as an institution faces existential challenges from populist nationalism:

1. Consensus-building Difficulties: Populist governance styles in member states make ASEAN’s consensus-based decision-making more difficult.
2. External Pressure Resistance: ASEAN’s ability to maintain “centrality” in regional architecture weakens when faced with aggressive populist powers.
3. Institutional Evolution: The organisation must adapt its mechanisms to preserve relevance in a more nationalist international environment.
4. Democratic Backsliding Management: Managing relationships with member states experiencing democratic erosion under populist leaders presents internal tensions.
5. Crisis Response Capacity: ASEAN’s already limited ability to address regional crises (Myanmar, South China Sea) is further constrained when great powers pursue nationalist agendas.

Case Studies of Impact

Philippines: Navigating Great Power Competition

The Philippines illustrates how regional states must recalibrate in response to American and Russian populism:

1. Alliance Recalibration: Uncertainty about American security commitments under Trump has forced Manila to reexamine its approach to the US alliance.
2. Chinese Accommodation: Simultaneous hedging toward China as insurance against American retrenchment.
3. Domestic Political Influence: Both Russian and American populist approaches have influenced Philippine political discourse and governance styles.

Myanmar: The Exploitation of Crisis

The Myanmar crisis demonstrates how populist powers exploit regional instability:

1. Russian Opportunism: Moscow has cultivated military relationships with the junta while Western powers imposed sanctions.
2. American Distraction: The US focus on domestic politics and prioritisation of great power competition has limited engagement with the Myanmar crisis.
3. ASEAN’s Limited Effectiveness: The organisation’s response has been hampered by both internal divisions and external pressure from competing powers.

Vietnam: Economic Adaptation

Vietnam’s response to American economic nationalism shows adaptive strategies:

1. Export Market Diversification: Reducing dependence on the American market in response to trade policy volatility.
2. Investment Attraction: Positioning as an alternative to China for manufacturing in a “friend-shoring” environment.
3. Strategic Partnership Diversification: Cultivating relationships across great powers to maintain autonomy.

Governance Implications

Democratic Resilience

The article’s core argument—that centrist leaders must demonstrate capacity for meaningful change to counter populism—has particular resonance in Asia:

1. Institutional Strength: Countries with stronger institutions (like Singapore) are more resilient against populist pressures but must still deliver results.
2. Economic Inclusion: Addressing economic inequality becomes critical to preventing the grievances that fuel populist movements.
3. Information Environment Management: Developing societal resilience against disinformation campaigns requires both regulatory frameworks and public education.

Singapore’s Governance Model

Singapore’s technocratic governance model may offer some advantages in the current environment:

1. Pragmatic Problem-solving: Focus on practical solutions rather than ideological purity provides some insulation from populist appeals.
2. Long-term Planning Capacity: Ability to maintain strategic direction despite external volatility.
3. Social Cohesion Emphasis: Conscious management of potential social divisions reduces vulnerability to foreign information operations.
4. Economic Adaptation: Track record of economic evolution in response to external changes suggests capacity to navigate trade disruptions.

Strategic Responses for Asia

Institutional Reinforcement

1. ASEAN Strengthening: Enhancing ASEAN’s capacity to act cohesively through institutional reforms and deepened integration.
2. New Multilateral Frameworks: Developing additional overlapping institutional architectures that can survive populist pressure from any single power.
3. Rules-based Order Defence: Collective commitment to international law and norms even when great powers deviate.

Economic Resilience

1. Diversification: Reducing dependence on any single market, including the United States, China, or Russia.
2. Regional Integration: Accelerating ASEAN economic integration to create a more robust regional market.
3. Strategic Industries Policy: Developing critical industries and supply chain resilience within the region.

Information Environment Protection

1. Regulatory Frameworks: Developing appropriate regulations against foreign information operations while protecting legitimate speech.
2. Digital Literacy: Enhancing public capacity to identify misinformation and disinformation.
3. Regional Cooperation: Sharing intelligence and best practices on countering information warfare.

Conclusion: The Path Forward

The populist challenges from both the United States and Russia present a profound test for Asia, Singapore, and ASEAN. The article’s warning that centrist politicians must “pick fights, take risks and break some taboos of their own” to survive populist challenges applies equally to Asian leaders.

The region faces a pivotal moment requiring:

1. Bold Leadership: Asian leaders must demonstrate the capacity to deliver meaningful change while maintaining stability.
2. Strategic Patience: Recognising that populist waves eventually recede, but institutional damage can be lasting.
3. Principled Pragmatism: Maintaining core values and interests while pragmatically adapting to a more nationalist international environment.
4. Regional Solidarity: Strengthening intra-Asian cooperation as insurance against significant power volatility.
5. Governance Innovation: Developing new approaches that address legitimate grievances without surrendering to populist simplifications.

Singapore’s resilience, but not immunity, its continued prosperity will depend on its capacity to navigate an increasingly complex strategic environment shaped by competing populist nationalisms while maintaining its own social cohesion and economic dynamism.

The challenge identified in the article—that traditional political establishments must demonstrate their capacity to effect meaningful change—resonates across Asia. Those who succeed will not only survive the populist moment but emerge stronger. Those who fail risk being swept away by the same forces now challenging Western democracies.

SINGAPORE – As the week unfolds, Singapore remains cautious, choosing not to revise its economic growth forecasts hastily. Despite some positive strides in international trade relations, the broader economic landscape remains shrouded in uncertainty.

On May 12, a 90-day truce was declared in the ongoing US-China tariff war, providing a reprieve for global markets. This pause has offered a glimmer of hope, calming nerves and reducing some of the anxiety surrounding international trade dynamics.

Adding to the optimism, a new trade agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom has been announced. This deal is expected to bolster trade ties and potentially open new avenues for commerce, promising a boost to global economic activity.

However, these developments, while encouraging, are not enough to dispel the pervasive uncertainty that continues to loom over Singapore’s economic outlook. The city-state’s export-driven economy is susceptible to fluctuations in global trade patterns.

Singapore’s economic planners are keenly aware of these complexities. They recognise that while temporary truces and new trade deals provide short-term relief, the underlying challenges persist. The global trade environment remains fragile, and long-term stability is still out of reach.

In this context, Singapore is taking a measured approach. Rather than rushing into revisions of growth forecasts, it is carefully monitoring the situation. Patience and vigilance are guiding principles as policymakers navigate through these uncertain times.

On May 16, Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong shared some promising news regarding ongoing trade discussions with the United States. He revealed that while a steadfast 10 per cent baseline tariff on Singapore remains firmly in place, there is a glimmer of hope for the nation’s pharmaceutical sector. The Republic might be exempted from an anticipated sectoral levy on its pharmaceutical exports, which would be a significant relief for the industry.

The talks, however, have not yet touched upon another critical area of concern: semiconductor exports. DPM Ganemphasised Singapore’s intent to bring this issue to the table soon. With semiconductors being a cornerstone of Singapore’s economy, any additional tariffs could have widespread implications.

Singapore is keen on ensuring a seamless flow of use technology to bolster its chip industry and digital economy. This move is crucial for maintaining its competitive edge in the rapidly evolving tech landscape. As discussions progress, Singapore is preparing to advocate strongly for these sectors to safeguard its economic interests.

The Deputy Prime Minister remains optimistic about finding common ground with the US despite the challenges. The stakes are high, but Singapore is determined to navigate these complex negotiations with strategic foresight and resilience. In March, Singapore’s manufacturing sector showed signs of recovery, rebounding from the previous month’s slump. This positive momentum continued into April, with non-oil domestic exports experiencing a significant double-digit increase. These developments suggested a potential upswing for Singapore’s economy.

Despite these promising indicators, most analysts remain cautious about the nation’s economic outlook. They predict that Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry will uphold its conservative GDP growth forecast of zero to 2 per cent for 2025. This announcement is expected during the release of the first quarter economic survey on May 22.

On May 16, Deputy Prime Minister Gan addressed the media, expressing concerns about ongoing global trade uncertainties. He highlighted that reaching an agreement on sectoral tariffs remains a distant possibility. The stability of the US-China trade deal also hangs in the balance, adding to the unpredictability.

“The 90-day deferment and the fact that the US and China discussed at the negotiating table are encouraging,” DPM Gan noted. However, he cautioned that it is premature to predict the outcome, emphasising that uncertainty continues to loom large over the global economy. This uncertainty poses a significant challenge for Singapore as it assesses its future growth prospects.

Analysts have voiced their support for his prudent approach, especially in light of the unpredictable nature of US President Donald Trump’s statements. These statements not only pertain to his hallmark trade policies but also extend to the fiscal and monetary strategies governing the world’s largest economy. The ever-shifting rhetoric from the White House has created an atmosphere of uncertainty that permeates various sectors.

Chua Han Teng, a senior economist at DBS Bank, emphasised the magnitude of this unpredictability. He pointed out that significant uncertainty still surrounds the ongoing US-Tiff negotiations. This ambiguity in trade policy creates a cloud of doubt that affects business decisions across the board. Companies are hesitant to make substantial investments or expand their workforce without a clear understanding of future trade conditions.

Additionally, this uncertainty trickles down to consumer confidence. When businesses hold back on investment and hiring, it can lead to reduced economic activity, further shaking consumer trust. As people become wary about job security and economic stability, their spending habits may shift, impacting overall economic growth.

The ripple effect of this uncertain environment is profound. It extends beyond the immediate concerns of tariffs and trade agreements. With fiscal and monetary policies also under scrutiny, there’s a broader impact on how both businesses and consumers plan for the future. In such a volatile climate, caution becomes not just advisable but necessary for navigating the unpredictable waters of today’s economy.

Ms. Selena Ling, who serves as OCBC Bank’s chief economist and head of treasury research and strategy, recently shared her perspective on the current economic outlook. She advised against revising the official growth forecast provided by the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) at this time. Her cautious stance reflects the uncertainty clouding the global economic environment.

The MTI’s growth estimate had already been adjusted downward from a range of 1 to 3 per cent. This was a notable drop from the robust 4.4 per cent expansion that Singapore experienced in 2024. The revised forecast indicated a more subdued economic landscape, prompting concerns among businesses and policymakers alike.

The adjustment came swiftly on the heels of a significant announcement by former President Donald Trump. On April 2, he unveiled a new reciprocal tariff policy that sent ripples through international markets. The policy introduced a baseline 10 per cent tax on imports from most countries, including Singapore, altering trade dynamics significantly.

Particularly alarming were the steep tariffs imposed on select economies. China, for instance, faced an additional 34 per cent tariff, marking a dramatic escalation in trade tensions. These measures represented an unprecedented unilateral action that left many nations scrambling to assess the potential impact on their economies.

As these developments unfolded, Ms. Ling’s recommendation not to alter the MTI growth forecast underscored the need for prudence. Her approach reflects a broader sentiment of caution as stakeholders navigate this complex and evolving economic landscape.

In the wake of mounting tensions, the higher reciprocal tariffs were put on hold for 90 days. China, not one to back down easily, swiftly retaliated by imposing its own set of tariffs on American imports. This move ignited a fierce tit-for-tat trade war between the two economic giants. As the conflict escalated, China slapped a staggering 125 per cent tariff on US goods, while the United States responded with an even heftier 145 per cent tariff on Chinese products.

The astronomical tariff rates sent shockwaves through global markets, raising alarms about the potential for significant economic downturns in both countries. Given the intertwined nature of the world’s largest economies, analysts warned that the situation could spiral into a global recession.

Amidst growing concerns, the two nations returned to the negotiating table. On May 12, after just two days of intense discussions, a temporary truce was reached. The US andUSna agreed to pause their trade war for another 90 days.

As part of this ceasefire, China agreed to slash tariffs on US exports by 10 per cent. In return, the US reduced its levies on Chinese goods to 30 per cent. This agreement marked a significant de-escalation, offering a glimmer of hope for more stable economic relations between the two superpowers.

Analysts have observed a recurring pattern of inconsistent application regarding US tariffs. USich has fostered a deep-seated scepticism among private economists and policymakers concerning President Trump’s trade policy intentions. This uncertainty has been exacerbated by the unpredictable nature of tariff implementations, leading to widespread apprehension about the future direction of US trade strategies.

Currently, Singapore enjoys a relatively low tariff burden compared to its ASEAN counterparts. However, this situation is poised for change. Experts predict a substantial increase in Singapore’s tariff rates if sector-specific tariffs are introduced. These tariffs, expected to be 25% each for pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, could drastically alter the economic landscape.

Mr. Chua Hak Bin, the regional co-head of macro research at Maybank, has highlighted the potential implications of these sector-specific tariffs. According to Mr. Chua, such tariffs would elevate Singapore’s effective US-weighted average tariff rate significantly. It would rise from the post-April 2 level of 4.6% to a striking 19.8%.

This prospective increase in tariffs poses significant challenges for Singapore’s economy, particularly in sectors critical to its growth and development. As the nation braces for potential changes, both policymakers and industry leaders are closely monitoring developments. The looming threat of heightened tariffs underscores the need for strategic planning and adaptive measures in response to evolving global trade dynamics.

“We anticipate the introduction of sector-wide tariffs on semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and electronics in the coming months,” he remarked, highlighting that US national security investigations had wrapped up on May 7. This development has been a topic of intense discussion among industry experts and policymakers alike.

The implications for Singapore are substantial. According to OCBC’s estimates, pharmaceutical exports represented a significant 12.3 per cent of Singapore’s domestic exports to the US in 2024. Meanwhile, semiconductors, along with related equipment and electronic devices, comprised an even larger share, at approximately 16.6 per cent.

These figures underscore the critical role these sectors play in Singapore’s economy. The potential introduction of tariffs could pose challenges but also opportunities for negotiation and adaptation. Any concessions or exemptions from these tariffs would not only be welcomed but could also significantly boost the nation’s economic landscape.

Government officials and industry leaders are closely monitoring such developments. They are keenly aware of the potential impacts on trade relations and economic growth. As discussions continue, there is cautious optimism that favourable outcomes could be achieved.

While the focus remains on tariff negotiations, other trade anomalies lurk in the shadows, threatening to disrupt the economic landscape. One such anomaly is the recent surge in exports, which jumped by 12.4 per cent year-on-year in April. This spike isn’t simply a sign of increased demand but rather a strategic move by importers. They are hurriedly front-loading orders, eager to fill their warehouses before tariffs come into effect, thus dodging additional costs for a few precious months.

Deputy Prime Minister Gan and various analysts have voiced concerns about this front-loading trend. The crux of the issue is that even if tariffs remain steady, demand is likely to falter in subsequent months. Importers, burdened with bloated inventories, will seek to offload these goods first. This necessity to clear stockpiles will naturally curtail new orders, leading to a potential slump in demand.

Amidst such uncertainties, hopes for an optimistic outlook from the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) seem distant. OCBC’s Ms. Ling suggests that, given the current climate, MTI is unlikely to revise its forecasts upward in the near future. As stakeholders grapple with these unpredictable dynamics, the path forward remains fraught with challenges and complexities.

The recent agreement between the US and China represents a significant but temporary cooling in trade tensions:

• 90-day pause on punitive tariffs
• US tariffs on Chinese imports reduced from 145% to 30%
• Chinese tariffs on US imports reduced from 125% to 10%
• Agreement announced on May 12, 2025

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