Big names are stepping into the spotlight this week. Palantir, AMD, and Uber lead the charge with their earnings reports. McDonald’s and Disney will soon reveal how they’re faring in a changing world. In health, Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, and Amgen all share their latest results. Each update paints a new piece of the story.

Meanwhile, the US will unveil new trade deficit figures. These numbers matter more than ever as tariffs shake up markets. Productivity and consumer credit data are on the way, too. Watch for weekly jobless claims — each number tells us something about the road ahead.

Eyes are also on the Fed. Top voices like Mary Daly and Raphael Bostic are set to speak. Their words could spark hope or caution after last week’s decision to keep rates steady.

Markets ended last week on edge. Trade worries weighed heavy, but there’s a sense of waiting — for news, for direction, for a sign that change is coming.

Across the world, Singapore’s market shines bright. The STI index climbed to 4,184 points, up nearly 24% over the year. Even with global storms brewing, Singapore’s strength stands out. Maybank now sees even higher targets, citing local grit amid global tests.

In these shifting times, every headline is a signal. Stay alert. Look for the stories behind the numbers. And remember: in uncertain days, resilience and insight are your greatest allies.

Major Earnings Reports:

• Tech companies: Palantir (Monday), AMD (Tuesday), Uber (Wednesday)
• Consumer brands: McDonald’s and Disney (Wednesday)
• Pharmaceutical companies: Novo Nordisk (Wednesday), Eli Lilly (Thursday), plus Pfizer and Amgen

Key Economic Data:

• U.S. trade deficit data (Tuesday) – particularly relevant given current tariff policies
• Productivity data and consumer credit reports
• Weekly jobless claims

Federal Reserve Activity:

• Several Fed presidents scheduled to speak, including Mary Daly, Raphael Bostic, and Alberto Musalem
• This follows the previous week’s decision to keep rates unchanged, with some FOMC members voting for cuts

The article notes that trade and tariff concerns weighed on markets at the end of the previous week, and investors are watching for signs of how tariffs might be affecting domestic manufacturing and international trade.

Market Context & Singapore’s Current Position

Singapore’s STI index rose to 4,184 points on August 1, 2025, gaining 0.23% from the previous session and climbing 23.72% year-over-year Singapore Stock Market (STI) – Quote – Chart – Historical Data – News, indicating strong market performance despite global uncertainties. However, Maybank Research recently raised its 2025 STI year-end target to 4,185, citing domestic resilience but acknowledging headwinds from US tariffs SGX Opens Firm As Traders Watch US Tariffs, Singapore Economy Sentiment – BusinessToday.

Key Impact Areas for Singapore

1. Technology Sector Impact

Palantir (Monday) & AMD (Tuesday) Earnings:

• Singapore’s tech manufacturing sector could be significantly affected by these reports
• Electronics manufacturers are already navigating cyclical demand shifts and geopolitical realignment, and must now adapt to a tighter pricing environment due to US tariffs What the 2025 U.S. Tariffs Could Mean for Singapore’s Economy
• Strong AI demand indicated by Palantir’s performance could benefit Singapore’s semiconductor ecosystem, but Singapore faces a 10% tariff rate on exports to the US US Tariffs: What’s the Impact? | J.P. Morgan Global Research

2. Banking Sector Implications

Fed Speakers’ Comments Impact:

• The Fed’s dot plot suggests two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025, projecting a median target range for the policy rate at 3.9% Singapore Market 2025 Outlook: 3 Investment Themes to Ride t… – moomoo Community
• Singapore banks face a projected 7.2% decline in net profit for 2025 due to rate cuts and tariff impacts MinichartCNBC
• DBS, OCBC, and UOB will be watching Fed speakers’ tone closely as lower rates can stimulate loan growth despite margin compression challenges Earnings Season Reports: Calendar+ How to Trade in August 2025 | IG Singapore

3. Trade & Economic Data Sensitivity

US Trade Deficit Data (Tuesday):

• Critical for Singapore given current trade tensions
• By March and April 2025, the US had achieved trade surpluses with Singapore, making the tariff policy appear increasingly inconsistent Singapore Tariffs 2025 | US Tariffs on Singapore – The Global Statistics
• Wholesale trade and transport sectors will be impacted, with global uncertainty dampening sentiments in finance and insurance services US tariff on S’pore exports likely to remain at 10% – Mothership.SG – News from Singapore, Asia and around the world

4. Consumer & Tourism Sectors

McDonald’s & Disney Earnings (Wednesday):

• Singapore’s consumer discretionary sector may see correlation effects
• Tourism-related REITs and hospitality stocks could be influenced by Disney’s streaming subscriber trends and consumer spending patterns

5. Pharmaceutical Sector

Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, Eli Lilly Reports:

• Singapore’s biotech and pharmaceutical manufacturing could benefit from global pharma trends
• Weight-loss drug demand patterns will influence local healthcare and biotech investments

Specific Risks & Opportunities

Immediate Risks:

1. Tariff Uncertainty: PM Lawrence Wong noted that Singapore may or may not go into recession this year, but growth will be significantly impacted US tariff on S’pore exports likely to remain at 10% – Mothership.SG – News from Singapore, Asia and around the world
2. Trade Rerouting: US tariffs create uncertainty for Singapore, but trade rerouting helps maintain a positive outlook PMO | Ministerial Statement by PM Lawrence Wong on the US Tariffs and Implications
3. Manufacturing Pressure: The 10% levy raises production costs, threatening both export competitiveness and profit margins in US-bound shipments What the 2025 U.S. Tariffs Could Mean for Singapore’s Economy

Opportunities:

1. MAS Policy Support: GDP growth is expected to slow in H2, but for 2025 as a whole, the output gap is projected to average around zero percent MAS Monetary Policy Statement – July 2025
2. Diversification Benefits: The service economy, represented by financial services and transportation, will continue to contain key sectors for alpha generation Singapore equity outlook 2025 | Nikko AM Insights
3. Regional Hub Status: Singapore may benefit from trade diversion effects as companies seek alternatives to direct US-China trade routes

Week-Specific Trading Implications

Monday-Tuesday: Tech earnings from Palantir and AMD will set the tone for Singapore’s semiconductor and technology stocks. Watch STI tech components and related REITs.

Wednesday: McDonald’s consumer spending insights and Disney streaming data will influence Singapore’s consumer discretionary and tourism-related stocks.

Thursday-Friday: Fed speakers’ commentary will be crucial for Singapore banks and interest-sensitive sectors, particularly given the projected rate cuts and margin pressures.

Strategic Outlook

MAS lowered headline inflation for 2025 to 0.5%-1.5% and core inflation to 0.5%-1.5% Singapore eases monetary policy, MAS warns of tariff impact to economy, providing some monetary policy flexibility. However, the combination of US tariffs, Fed policy shifts, and global economic uncertainty creates a complex environment where Singapore must leverage its position as a regional financial hub while managing trade disruption risks.

The week’s events will likely reinforce Singapore’s need for economic diversification and could accelerate initiatives like the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone to maintain competitiveness despite external headwinds.

MAS Monetary Policy Easing & Economic Scenario Analysis: Singapore’s Strategic Response to Global Headwinds

Current Monetary Policy Framework

MAS has lowered headline inflation for 2025 to an average of 0.5%-1.5%, down from its previous projection of 1.5%-2.5%, while core inflation forecast was also lowered to 0.5%-1.5%, down from the 1%-2% forecasted earlier Nikko AM Global SitePrime Minister’s Office Singapore. This dramatic downward revision reflects the complex interplay of deflationary pressures from US tariffs and global economic uncertainty.

Singapore left its monetary policy unchanged in the latest July meeting after two consecutive rounds of easing, maintaining the prevailing rate of appreciation of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) policy band CNBCThe Global Statistics, signaling a cautious approach amid heightened uncertainty.

Economic Performance Context

Despite headwinds, Singapore’s economy expanded by 4.3% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with growth momentum stronger than expected at 1.4% quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted, reversing the -0.5% from the previous quarter SGX Opens Firm As Traders Watch US Tariffs, Singapore Economy Sentiment – BusinessToday. This growth was led by the manufacturing sector, which expanded 5.5% year over year, up from 4.4% in Q1 2025 US tariffs impact could include global trade war; Singapore ….

Scenario Analysis Framework

Scenario 1: Controlled Trade Disruption (60% Probability)

Characteristics:

• GDP growth range of 0-2% for 2025, with Singapore positioned as a “key upstream node” in global supply chains Asean BriefingMAS
• ING forecasts GDP at 1.6% after lowering by 100bp, noting Singapore “managed to avoid the worst of the US tariffs” US Tariffs: What’s the Impact? | J.P. Morgan Global Research
• Inflation remains within MAS’s revised 0.5%-1.5% range

Policy Implications:

• MAS maintains current accommodative stance with SGD NEER stability
• Lower nominal wage growth and continuing increases in labour productivity dampen domestic unit labour costs MAS Monetary Policy Statement – July 2025
• Selective easing measures targeted at trade-sensitive sectors

Market Impact:

• Banking sector faces margin compression but benefits from loan growth
• Manufacturing maintains resilience through productivity gains
• Services sector diversification accelerates

Scenario 2: Escalating Trade War (25% Probability)

Characteristics:

• GDP growth approaches zero or turns negative
• Choppy seas ahead with US tariffs reshaping Singapore’s market dynamics, challenging sectors reliant on international trade Opportunities in Singapore could mitigate hit from US trade barriers | Oxford Economics
• Core inflation falls below 0.5% due to demand destruction

Policy Response:

• MAS shifts to aggressive easing, allowing SGD depreciation
• Government initiatives like the Business Adaptation Grant (up to $100,000 per company, launching October 2025) expand significantly
• Fiscal stimulus measures targeting domestic demand

Market Impact:

• Significant restructuring of supply chains
• Tech and manufacturing sectors face severe margin pressure
• Financial services benefit from increased hedging and trade finance needs

Scenario 3: Trade Diversion Benefits (15% Probability)

Characteristics:

• Singapore leverages regional hub status as companies reroute trade
• GDP growth exceeds 2% upper bound of current forecast
• Inflation pressures emerge from increased economic activity

Policy Dynamics:

• MAS may need to reverse easing measures by late 2025
• Focus shifts from stimulus to managing overheating risks
• SGD strength becomes policy tool to combat imported inflation

Market Impact:

• Financial services and logistics sectors outperform
• Real estate and infrastructure investment accelerates
• Currency strength challenges export competitiveness

Sectoral Deep Dive Analysis

Manufacturing Sector

Current Position: Manufacturing expanded 5.5% year over year and makes up about 17% of the country’s economy US tariffs impact could include global trade war; Singapore …

Scenario Impacts:

• Controlled Disruption: Gradual shift toward higher value-added production
• Escalating Trade War: Forced restructuring with potential capacity reduction
• Trade Diversion: Capacity expansion to serve rerouted trade flows

Financial Services

Policy Sensitivity: High exposure to interest rate differentials and currency movements

Scenario Impacts:

• All Scenarios: Net interest margins compressed but offset by volume growth
• Trade War: Increased demand for hedging and restructuring services
• Trade Diversion: Expansion of trade finance and treasury services

Real Estate & Construction

Current Dynamics: Sensitive to immigration policies and economic growth

Scenario Impacts:

• Controlled Disruption: Stable demand with selective government support
• Trade War: Commercial real estate stress, residential market resilience
• Trade Diversion: Infrastructure investment boom and commercial expansion

Policy Flexibility Assessment

Monetary Policy Space

MAS Core Inflation eased significantly to 0.7% y-o-y in Jan-Feb 2025, from 1.9% in Q4 2024, driven by lower import prices partly because of lower oil and food prices and partly because of a relatively stronger local currency CNBCMoomoo

Available Tools:

1. Exchange Rate Policy: Primary tool with significant room for adjustment
2. Macroprudential Measures: Property cooling measures can be relaxed
3. Liquidity Management: Banking system liquidity can be enhanced

Fiscal Policy Coordination

Government initiatives include the Business Adaptation Grant and revised growth forecasts, with Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong noting Singapore may have the “best rate” among affected countries

Strategic Priorities:

1. Supply chain resilience and diversification
2. Digital economy acceleration
3. Regional financial hub strengthening

Risk Management Framework

Immediate Risks (Next 6 Months)

• Escalation of US-China trade tensions
• Global manufacturing demand collapse
• Financial market volatility spilling over to Singapore

Medium-term Challenges (6-18 Months)

• Supply chain permanent restructuring costs
• Skills mismatch from sectoral shifts
• Currency volatility affecting trade competitiveness

Long-term Opportunities (18+ Months)

• Enhanced regional hub status
• Green transition financing leadership
• Digital services export expansion

Strategic Recommendations

For Policymakers

1. Maintain Policy Flexibility: Keep powder dry for potential escalation scenarios
2. Accelerate Diversification: Fast-track initiatives reducing US-China trade dependence
3. Strengthen Regional Ties: Deepen ASEAN economic integration

For Investors

1. Defensive Positioning: Focus on domestic-oriented sectors and regional champions
2. Volatility Strategies: Prepare for increased market turbulence
3. Currency Hedging: Manage SGD exposure given policy uncertainty

For Corporates

1. Supply Chain Agility: Build multi-sourcing capabilities
2. Market Diversification: Reduce concentration in US-China trade corridor
3. Technology Investment: Accelerate automation and digitalization

The confluence of low inflation, monetary policy flexibility, and strategic geographic positioning provides Singapore with multiple pathways to navigate the current challenging environment, though success will depend on maintaining policy agility and accelerating structural adaptations to the new global trade reality.

Singapore Stock Profiles & Market Outlook 2025

Market Context & Performance Overview

The Singapore stock market has shown resilience despite global headwinds, with the STI trading around 4,200 points as of August 2025. However, performance has been mixed, with the market experiencing both significant rallies and corrections throughout the year.

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BANKING SECTOR: The Pillars of Singapore’s Market

DBS Group Holdings (D05.SI)

Current Position: Market leader with recent all-time highs Market Cap: ~S$95 billion Dividend Yield: ~6.0%

Key Strengths:

• Strongest digital transformation and innovation capabilities
• Leading market position in Southeast Asia
• Superior ROE performance consistently above 15%
• First mover advantage in digital banking initiatives

2025 Outlook:

• Expected 4.4% y-o-y decline in Q1 2025 net income to S$2.95 billion
• Projected 7.2% decline in net profit for 2025 due to rate cuts and tariff impacts
• Price performance: +41.6% gain over past year, outperforming peers
• Maintains growth premium despite challenging environment

Investment Thesis: DBS continues to command a premium valuation due to its regional expansion strategy and digital leadership. The bank’s strong capital position and diversified revenue streams provide resilience against rate cut pressures.

Risk Factors:

• Exposure to China markets through regional operations
• Net interest margin compression from Fed rate cuts
• Credit loss provisions may increase if economic conditions deteriorate

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Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (O39.SI)

Current Position: Stable income-focused option Market Cap: ~S$55 billion Dividend Yield: ~6.0%

Key Strengths:

• Conservative risk management approach
• Strong wealth management franchise
• First Singapore bank to issue tokenized bonds (January 2025)
• Stable dividend policy with reliable payouts

2025 Outlook:

• Expected 5.7% y-o-y decline in net income to S$1.98 billion in Q1 2025
• Price performance: +27.1% gain over past year
• Down 2.1% year-to-date as of May 2025
• Focus on digital transformation and sustainable banking

Investment Thesis: OCBC represents the conservative choice among Singapore banks, appealing to income-focused investors. The bank’s cautious approach provides downside protection but may limit upside potential.

Risk Factors:

• Lower growth profile compared to peers
• Dependence on Singapore and Malaysia markets
• Slower digital adoption may impact long-term competitiveness

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United Overseas Bank (U11.SI)

Current Position: Best value play among the trio Market Cap: ~S$50 billion Dividend Yield: ~6.0%

Key Strengths:

• Attractive valuation metrics
• Strong presence in Thailand and ASEAN markets
• Improving operational efficiency
• Solid dividend sustainability

2025 Outlook:

• Only bank expected to show positive growth: 1.1% y-o-y increase in net income (Q1 2025)
• Price performance: +26.4% gain over past year
• Down 3.4% year-to-date as of May 2025
• Potential for catch-up performance with peers

Investment Thesis: UOB offers the best value proposition among Singapore banks, with analysts viewing it as having room to catch up with DBS and OCBC. The bank’s ASEAN focus aligns with regional growth trends.

Risk Factors:

• Exposure to Thailand’s economic volatility
• Lower brand recognition in digital banking
• Regulatory risks in key ASEAN markets

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TELECOMMUNICATIONS SECTOR

Singapore Telecommunications (Z74.SI)

Current Position: Undergoing strategic transformation Market Cap: ~S$40 billion Dividend Yield: ~4-5%

Key Strengths:

• Dominant position in Singapore’s telecom market
• Growing data center and cybersecurity businesses
• 5G infrastructure investment paying dividends
• Regional expansion in digital services

2025 Outlook:

• Strategic pivot toward digital services and enterprise solutions
• Benefiting from increased data consumption and cloud adoption
• Investment in AI and digital infrastructure creating new revenue streams

Investment Thesis: Singtel is transforming from a traditional telecom operator to a digital services company. The strategy requires patience but positions the company for long-term growth in higher-margin businesses.

Risk Factors:

• Intense competition in core markets
• Heavy capital expenditure requirements
• Regulatory pressures on telecom pricing

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REAL ESTATE & CONGLOMERATES

CapitaLand Investment (9CI.SI)

Current Position: Strategic transformation in progress Market Cap: ~S$15 billion Dividend Yield: ~3-4%

Key Strengths:

• Leading real estate investment manager in Asia
• Diversified portfolio across commercial, residential, and logistics
• Strong fund management capabilities
• ESG leadership in sustainable development

2025 Outlook:

• Benefiting from Singapore’s property market recovery
• Expansion into data centers and logistics real estate
• Focus on fund management for recurring income

Investment Thesis: CapitaLand’s asset-light model provides stable fee income while reducing capital intensity. The company’s regional presence and ESG credentials position it well for institutional capital flows.

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Keppel Ltd (BN4.SI)

Current Position: Energy transition and infrastructure focus Market Cap: ~S$10 billion Dividend Yield: ~4-5%

Key Strengths:

• Leadership in offshore engineering and renewable energy
• Data center development and operations
• Strong balance sheet and financial flexibility
• Government infrastructure projects

2025 Outlook:

• Benefiting from energy transition investments
• Data center business providing growth momentum
• Potential for value unlock through asset monetization

Investment Thesis: Keppel’s pivot toward sustainable infrastructure aligns with global megatrends. The company’s engineering expertise and financial strength provide competitive advantages in complex projects.

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SINGAPORE MARKET OUTLOOK 2025

Macroeconomic Environment

• GDP Growth: 0.0-2.0% (revised down from 4.4% in 2024)
• Inflation: 0.5-1.5% (headline and core)
• Interest Rates: MAS maintaining accommodative stance
• Currency: SGD NEER policy providing stability

Key Investment Themes

1. Defensive Quality

• Focus on companies with strong balance sheets and recurring income
• Banks offer attractive dividend yields (~6%) with capital strength
• REITs benefit from lower interest rate environment

2. Digital Transformation

• Technology adoption accelerating across sectors
• Companies investing in AI and automation gaining competitive advantages
• Cybersecurity and data services showing strong growth

3. Regional Hub Benefits

• Singapore positioned to benefit from trade rerouting
• Financial services and logistics sectors well-positioned
• Government support for business adaptation and innovation

4. ESG and Sustainability

• Green finance initiatives creating new opportunities
• Companies with strong ESG credentials attracting capital flows
• Renewable energy and sustainable infrastructure investments growing

Risk Factors to Monitor

1. Trade War Escalation

• US tariffs creating uncertainty for export-oriented sectors
• Supply chain disruption affecting manufacturing companies
• Currency volatility impacting international operations

2. Interest Rate Sensitivity

• Banking sector margins under pressure from rate cuts
• Property and REIT sectors sensitive to rate changes
• Credit quality concerns if economic conditions deteriorate

3. Geopolitical Tensions

• China exposure creating volatility for regional banks
• Regulatory changes in key markets affecting operations
• Currency and capital flow restrictions impacting business

Investment Strategy Recommendations

For Conservative Investors:

• Focus on Singapore banks for stable dividends and capital preservation
• Consider high-quality REITs for income generation
• Maintain diversification across sectors to reduce concentration risk

For Growth Investors:

• Look for companies benefiting from digital transformation
• Consider healthcare and technology sectors for long-term growth
• Evaluate regional champions with ASEAN expansion potential

For Value Investors:

• UOB offers best value among banking stocks
• Infrastructure and utility stocks may be undervalued
• Look for companies undergoing successful strategic transformations

Conclusion

Singapore’s stock market faces a complex environment in 2025, balancing domestic resilience with global headwinds. The banking sector remains the cornerstone of the market, offering attractive dividends and stability. Companies successfully navigating digital transformation and regional expansion are likely to outperform. While challenges from trade tensions and rate cuts persist, Singapore’s strategic position as a regional hub and supportive government policies provide a foundation for long-term growth.

The key to successful investing in Singapore’s market lies in focusing on quality companies with strong fundamentals, sustainable business models, and the ability to adapt to changing global conditions. Diversification across sectors and maintaining a long-term perspective will be crucial for navigating the volatility ahead.

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