Imagine turning £20,000 into £2.8 billion. That’s the magic Berkshire Hathaway has worked for its loyal shareholders since 1965, far outpacing the S&P 500 and leaving index funds in the dust. Even today, a simple £20,000 investment at the start of 2025 has already grown to around £22,400 — just by trusting in the power of smart choices.

Warren Buffett’s careful eye has kept the company strong, even as markets waver. While others chase trends, he builds strength for tomorrow, quietly holding more than $340 billion in cash, ready to seize the next great chance.

Yes, uncertainty lingers. Tariffs and high prices cast long shadows. Yet, Buffett’s focus on solid ground means Berkshire stands steady when others stumble.

As Warren prepares to pass the torch to Greg Abel later this year, the future feels both exciting and secure. With more than half the portfolio in giants like Apple and American Express, the company bets on what endures.

This isn’t just investing. It’s building a legacy — one that grows with patience, vision, and trust. If you dream of more than average returns, Berkshire Hathaway’s story could be your own. Why settle for less?

Historical Performance:

• Berkshire Hathaway has delivered a 19.9% annualized return since 1965, compared to the S&P 500’s 10.4%
• £20,000 invested 60 years ago would now be worth £2.8 billion, versus £9.9 million in an index fund

2025 Performance So Far:

• Berkshire Hathaway shares have gained about 12% year-to-date (as of early September 2025)
• This means £20,000 invested at the start of 2025 is now worth roughly £22,400
• This slightly outperformed the S&P 500’s 11% return over the same period

Current Situation:

• Buffett remains concerned about high US stock valuations and has been a net seller this year
• The company holds over $340 billion in cash, positioning it well for future opportunities
• Tariff-related uncertainty has created some downward pressure on the stock

Looking Ahead:

• Buffett plans to retire later in 2025, with Greg Abel set to take over leadership
• The investment portfolio is highly concentrated, with over 50% allocated to Apple, American Express, and Bank of America
• Despite succession risks and concentration concerns, the author believes Berkshire Hathaway shares remain worth considering for 2025

The article suggests that while challenges exist, Berkshire’s strong cash position and experienced management team could continue to deliver value for investors even after Buffett’s retirement.

Analysis of Berkshire Hathaway’s Leadership Transition and Singapore Investment Implications

Leadership Succession: A Historic Transition

Based on the search results, the situation is now confirmed: Warren Buffett announced his retirement decision on May 3, 2025, during Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholder meeting, with plans to step down as CEO by year-end MediumThe Washington Post. However, Buffett will remain as chairman while Greg Abel becomes CEO Warren Buffett is not retiring for good as Berkshire board votes to keep him as chairman, providing continuity during the transition.

Greg Abel’s Credentials:

• Currently 62 years old and Berkshire’s vice chairman of non-insurance operations Who is Berkshire Hathaway’s Greg Abel? Warren Buffett explained his choice of successor: ‘He understands businesses extremely well’
• Has worked with Buffett for more than two decades with a strong track record as a business operator Greg Abel is the successor to Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway. Here’s how he got there
• Officially designated as successor since 2021 Who is Berkshire Hathaway’s Greg Abel? Warren Buffett explained his choice of successor: ‘He understands businesses extremely well’

Succession Risks Analysis:

1. Operational Continuity: Abel’s 20+ year tenure suggests deep institutional knowledge
2. Investment Philosophy: The bigger question is whether Abel will maintain Buffett’s disciplined, value-oriented approach
3. Market Confidence: Berkshire shares reached record highs with a market value exceeding $1.1 trillion Warren Buffett is not retiring for good as Berkshire board votes to keep him as chairman following the announcement, suggesting market approval

Portfolio Concentration: A Double-Edged Sword

The concentration in Apple, American Express, and Bank of America (50%+ of portfolio) presents both opportunities and risks:

Risks:

• Single Point of Failure: Any significant downturn in these companies could severely impact returns
• Sector Exposure: Heavy weighting in financials (AXP, BAC) and technology (AAPL) creates sector-specific vulnerabilities
• Regulatory Risk: Banking regulations and tech antitrust actions could disproportionately affect the portfolio

Opportunities:

• Quality Companies: These are blue-chip companies with strong competitive moats
• Dividend Income: AXP and BAC provide steady dividend income
• Strategic Influence: Large stakes provide significant influence over these companies’ strategic directions

Singapore Investment Perspective: Strategic Advantages

For Singapore-based investors, Berkshire Hathaway offers unique advantages:

Tax Efficiency Benefits

1. Capital Gains Tax Advantage: Singapore-based investors face no capital gains tax on US stock investments IRASMedium, making Berkshire’s appreciation-focused strategy highly tax-efficient for local investors.
2. Dividend Withholding Tax Considerations:
   • US investments are subject to 30% dividend withholding tax U.S. Dividend Withholding Tax: What Singapore investors must know | Dr Wealth
   • Berkshire’s minimal dividend policy (historically pays no regular dividends) eliminates this tax drag
   • The lack of dividends is advantageous for tax efficiency, as it allows for tax-deferred growth Why You Should Consider Investing in Berkshire Hathaway – The Physician Philosopher

Currency and Market Access

USD Exposure Benefits:

• Currency Diversification: Provides SGD investors with USD exposure, hedging against potential SGD weakness
• Inflation Hedge: USD assets can provide protection against domestic inflation
• Global Purchasing Power: Access to US market returns and global diversification through Berkshire’s international holdings

Singapore-Specific Investment Considerations

Regulatory Environment:

• Singapore’s favorable tax treatment of capital gains Singapore – Corporate – Income determination aligns perfectly with Berkshire’s capital appreciation strategy
• No restrictions on foreign investment for individual investors
• Strong regulatory framework provides investor protection

Market Access:

• Can be purchased through local brokerages with access to US markets
• Available through robo-advisors and wealth management platforms
• SGX-listed alternatives may exist but would still face the same underlying exposures

Strategic Recommendations for Singapore Investors

Position Sizing Considerations

Given the concentration risks, Singapore investors should consider:

1. Portfolio Allocation: Limit Berkshire to 5-15% of total portfolio to manage concentration risk
2. Diversification: Complement with Singapore REITs, SGX stocks, and other regional assets
3. Currency Hedging: Consider partial currency hedging if SGD strengthening is a concern

Timing Considerations

The current environment presents mixed signals:

Positive Factors:

• Cash Position: Over $340 billion in cash provides opportunity for acquisitions during market downturns
• Succession Clarity: Market has responded positively to clear succession planning
• Proven Strategy: Long-term track record remains compelling

Risk Factors:

• Valuation Concerns: Buffett’s own comments about high US stock valuations suggest caution
• Transition Uncertainty: New leadership may bring strategy changes
• Geopolitical Risks: US-China trade tensions could impact multinational holdings

Long-term Outlook for Singapore Investors

Positive Scenarios:

1. Successful Transition: Abel maintains Buffett’s discipline while adding operational expertise
2. Market Correction: Large cash position enables opportunistic acquisitions
3. Global Growth: Singapore’s growing wealth provides increasing investment capital for such opportunities

Risk Scenarios:

1. Strategy Drift: New leadership moves away from proven value investing principles
2. Concentration Blow-up: Major problems at Apple, AXP, or BAC severely impact returns
3. Regulatory Changes: Changes to US tax treatment of foreign investments or Singapore’s capital gains policies

Conclusion

For Singapore investors, Berkshire Hathaway remains attractive due to the favorable tax environment and currency diversification benefits. However, the concentration risks and leadership transition warrant careful consideration. The investment makes most sense as part of a diversified portfolio, where Singapore investors can take advantage of the unique tax benefits while managing the inherent risks through proper asset allocation.

The key for Singapore investors is to view Berkshire not just as a stock pick, but as a strategic allocation that provides USD exposure, access to high-quality US businesses, and tax-efficient growth potential within the context of a broader, geographically diversified investment portfolio.

Berkshire Hathaway Investment Scenarios for Singapore Investors

Scenario Planning Framework

Base Case Assumptions

• Portfolio Allocation: 10% Berkshire Hathaway in diversified Singapore portfolio
• Time Horizon: 10-year investment period (2025-2035)
• Initial Investment: S$100,000 total portfolio (S$10,000 in Berkshire)
• USD/SGD Rate: Current ~1.35 baseline

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SCENARIO 1: SUCCESSION SUCCESS

Probability: 60%

Scenario Description

Greg Abel successfully transitions into CEO role, maintains Buffett’s investment discipline while adding operational improvements. Market confidence remains high, and Berkshire continues delivering market-beating returns.

Key Drivers

• Leadership: Smooth transition, Abel proves capable successor
• Strategy: Maintains value investing approach with selective tech integration
• Market Environment: Moderate growth, occasional corrections provide buying opportunities
• Cash Deployment: $340B cash deployed effectively over 3-5 years

Financial Projections (10-year)

Financial Projections (10-year)
Metric	Outcome
Berkshire Annual Return	12-15%
S&P 500 Benchmark	8-10%
SGD Portfolio Value	S$259,000 – S$305,000
Berkshire Contribution	S$31,000 – S$40,000
USD/SGD Impact	#ERROR!

Singapore Investor Benefits

• Tax Efficiency: Zero capital gains tax maximizes compound returns
• Currency Hedging: USD strength provides 10-20% currency gain
• Diversification: Access to quality US businesses unavailable on SGX

Risk Mitigation Success

• Portfolio diversification limits concentration risk to manageable levels
• Strong cash position provides downside protection during market volatility
• Proven investment philosophy continues under new leadership

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SCENARIO 2: CONCENTRATION CATASTROPHE

Probability: 15%

Scenario Description

Major problems hit Apple, American Express, or Bank of America simultaneously. Regulatory crackdown on big tech, banking crisis, or competitive disruption causes severe portfolio damage.

Key Triggers

• Apple: Regulatory breakup or competitive displacement in key markets
• American Express: Digital payments revolution eliminates competitive moats
• Bank of America: Banking crisis or massive loan defaults
• Systemic Risk: Multiple positions affected by same macro trend

Financial Projections (10-year)

Financial Projections (10-year)
Metric	Outcome
Berkshire Annual Return	-2% to +5%
S&P 500 Benchmark	6-8%
SGD Portfolio Value	S$215,000 – S$240,000
Berkshire Contribution	S$8,000 – S$13,000
USD/SGD Impact	-10% to +5% (mixed)

Impact on Singapore Investors

• Underperformance: 10% allocation limits damage to 2-3% of total portfolio
• Opportunity Cost: Missed returns versus diversified alternatives
• Learning Experience: Validates importance of diversification principles

Portfolio Protection Mechanisms

• Limited Allocation: 10% position prevents catastrophic portfolio damage
• Rebalancing: Systematic rebalancing captures recovery opportunities
• Regional Diversification: SGX stocks, REITs provide offsetting stability

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SCENARIO 3: STRATEGY DRIFT

Probability: 20%

Scenario Description

New leadership gradually abandons Buffett’s proven approach. Increased trading activity, growth stock focus, or aggressive acquisition strategy reduces returns and increases volatility.

Key Changes

• Investment Style: Shift from value to growth/momentum strategies
• Portfolio Turnover: Increased buying/selling activity
• Acquisition Strategy: Overpaying for trendy businesses
• Risk Management: Reduced margin of safety in investments

Financial Projections (10-year)

Financial Projections (10-year)
Metric	Outcome
Berkshire Annual Return	-2% to +5%
S&P 500 Benchmark	6-8%
SGD Portfolio Value	S$215,000 – S$240,000
Berkshire Contribution	S$8,000 – S$13,000
USD/SGD Impact	-10% to +5% (mixed)

Singapore Investor Implications

• Mediocre Performance: Returns in line with or below market averages
• Higher Volatility: Increased portfolio fluctuations
• Lost Differentiation: No longer provides unique value proposition

Strategic Response Options

• Reduce Allocation: Scale back Berkshire position to 5%
• Alternative Selection: Shift to Singapore value stocks or Asian funds
• Monitoring Approach: Wait for strategy correction before major changes

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SCENARIO 4: PERFECT STORM RECOVERY

Probability: 5%

Scenario Description

Major market crash (2008-style) occurs during first 3 years, followed by strong recovery. Berkshire’s cash position enables massive opportunistic investments at depressed prices.

Market Dynamics

• Years 1-3: -40% to -50% market decline
• Years 4-10: Strong recovery with Berkshire outperforming significantly
• Currency: USD initially weakens, then strengthens substantially
• Interest Rates: Sharp cuts followed by gradual normalization

Financial Projections (10-year)

MetricOutcomeBerkshire Annual Return18-25%S&P 500 Benchmark10-12%SGD Portfolio ValueS$320,000 - S$450,000Berkshire ContributionS$46,000 - S$85,000USD/SGD Impact+20% to +35%

Singapore Investor Advantages

• Tax-Free Gains: Singapore’s capital gains exemption maximizes recovery benefits
• Currency Gains: Massive USD strength provides additional returns
• Patience Rewarded: Long-term holding strategy captures full recovery

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PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION STRATEGIES BY SCENARIO

Conservative Approach (Risk-Averse Singapore Investors)

• Berkshire Allocation: 5-7%
• SGX Component: 40-50%
• Regional Diversification: 30-40%
• Bonds/REITs: 15-25%

Rationale: Minimizes concentration risk while maintaining USD exposure

Balanced Approach (Moderate Risk Tolerance)

• Berkshire Allocation: 8-12%
• SGX Component: 30-40%
• Regional Diversification: 35-45%
• Bonds/REITs: 10-20%

Rationale: Captures Berkshire benefits while maintaining diversification

Aggressive Approach (High Risk Tolerance)

• Berkshire Allocation: 15-20%
• SGX Component: 25-35%
• Regional Diversification: 40-50%
• Bonds/REITs: 5-15%

Rationale: Maximum exposure to potential outperformance

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DYNAMIC REBALANCING STRATEGIES

Scenario-Based Triggers

Scenario-Based Triggers
Market Condition	Action	Berkshire Allocation
Major Market Decline (-30%+)	Increase allocation	12-15%
Strong Outperformance (+20% vs market)	Reduce allocation	7-10%
Leadership Change Concerns	Maintain/Reduce	5-8%
Cash Deployment Success	Increase allocation	10-15%

Annual Review Checklist

1. Performance vs. Benchmark: Adjust allocation based on relative performance
2. Strategy Consistency: Monitor for drift from value investing principles
3. Currency Impact: Assess USD/SGD effects on total returns
4. Portfolio Balance: Ensure overall diversification remains intact

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SINGAPORE-SPECIFIC CONSIDERATIONS

Tax Optimization

• Capital Gains: Maximize benefit of Singapore’s zero capital gains tax
• Dividend Policy: Berkshire’s minimal dividends avoid US withholding tax
• Currency Timing: Consider SGD/USD conversion timing for maximum efficiency

Regional Integration

• Correlation Analysis: Monitor correlation with SGX stocks
• Sector Balance: Ensure Berkshire’s sector exposure complements local holdings
• Economic Cycle: Consider Singapore’s economic cycle relationship with US markets

Regulatory Environment

• Investment Limits: No restrictions on individual foreign investment
• Reporting Requirements: Understand disclosure obligations for large holdings
• Estate Planning: Consider implications for cross-border wealth transfer

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KEY SUCCESS FACTORS

For Positive Outcomes

1. Disciplined Allocation: Maintain target allocation regardless of short-term performance
2. Regular Rebalancing: Systematic approach prevents concentration drift
3. Long-term Perspective: 10+ year horizon captures full investment cycle
4. Scenario Monitoring: Regular assessment of changing conditions

Risk Management

1. Diversification Discipline: Never exceed 20% allocation regardless of performance
2. Stress Testing: Regular portfolio stress tests under adverse scenarios
3. Exit Strategy: Clear criteria for reducing or eliminating position
4. Opportunity Cost Assessment: Regular comparison with alternative investments

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CONCLUSION

The scenario analysis reveals that Berkshire Hathaway can play a valuable role in Singapore portfolios across most reasonable outcomes. The key insight is that the investment’s success depends more on proper portfolio integration and risk management than on predicting specific scenarios.

Optimal Strategy: Maintain 8-12% allocation with systematic rebalancing, treating Berkshire as a strategic USD/quality equity allocation rather than a standalone investment bet.

The Prudent Path: A Singapore Investor’s Journey with Berkshire Hathaway

Chapter 1: The Decision

Mei Lin sat in her Tanjong Pagar office, the Singapore skyline stretching before her as she reviewed her investment portfolio on a humid September evening in 2025. At 35, she had built a respectable nest egg of S$500,000 through disciplined saving and conservative investing in Singapore REITs and blue-chip SGX stocks. But lately, she’d been thinking about Warren Buffett’s impending retirement and what it might mean for investors like her.

“The Oracle of Omaha is finally stepping down,” she murmured, reading the headlines on her Bloomberg terminal. The news had been circulating for months, but now it was official. Greg Abel would take over as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway by year’s end.

Her colleague David, a seasoned wealth manager, knocked on her office door. “Still thinking about that Berkshire position?”

“I can’t shake the feeling that this is either a golden opportunity or a massive trap,” Mei Lin replied. “Buffett’s track record is legendary, but what happens when he’s gone?”

David settled into the chair across from her desk. “You know what I always tell my clients? Don’t bet everything on one outcome. But also don’t let paralysis keep you from good opportunities.”

Chapter 2: The Research

Over the next two weeks, Mei Lin dove deep into her analysis. She modeled different scenarios, each one telling a different story about Berkshire’s future.

The Success Story: Greg Abel seamlessly takes over, maintains Buffett’s discipline, and the company’s massive cash pile gets deployed brilliantly during the next market correction. Her S$50,000 Berkshire position (10% of her portfolio) grows to S$200,000 over the next decade.

The Disaster Scenario: Apple faces antitrust breakup, Bank of America gets caught in a banking crisis, and American Express loses ground to digital payments. Berkshire stumbles badly. But even then, her losses would be limited to S$25,000 – painful but not portfolio-destroying.

The Mediocrity Path: New leadership abandons the proven strategy, and Berkshire becomes just another large-cap stock, delivering market-average returns. Not exciting, but her US dollar exposure still provides currency diversification.

“The beautiful thing about being a Singapore investor,” she realized, “is that I don’t pay capital gains tax. Every dollar of appreciation I keep.”

Chapter 3: The Implementation

In October 2025, Mei Lin made her move. She invested S$50,000 in Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares, exactly 10% of her portfolio. But she didn’t stop there – she created a systematic rebalancing plan.

“Every quarter, I’ll review the allocation,” she wrote in her investment journal. “If Berkshire grows beyond 12% of my portfolio, I’ll trim. If it falls below 8%, I’ll add more. This isn’t about timing the market – it’s about maintaining balance.”

She also diversified the rest of her portfolio: 35% in SGX stocks, 25% in regional Asian equities, 20% in Singapore REITs, and 10% in bonds. Berkshire would be her window into high-quality American businesses and her hedge against Singapore dollar weakness.

Chapter 4: The Test

By March 2026, the markets had been kind. Berkshire was up 18% while the broader market gained 12%. Greg Abel had proven himself capable, making smart acquisitions with the company’s cash hoard and maintaining Buffett’s investment philosophy. Mei Lin’s Berkshire position had grown to S$59,000, pushing it above her 12% threshold.

“Time to rebalance,” she told herself, even though every instinct screamed to let winners run. She sold S$9,000 worth of Berkshire shares and reinvested the proceeds in underperforming SGX stocks.

Her friend Jason, who had put 30% of his portfolio into Berkshire, mocked her decision. “You’re selling your best performer! That’s crazy!”

“I’m not selling my best performer,” Mei Lin replied calmly. “I’m maintaining my strategy.”

Chapter 5: The Crisis

In September 2027, the crisis hit. A combination of rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and a tech sector correction sent markets tumbling. Apple, Berkshire’s largest holding, fell 35% amid antitrust concerns. The broader market dropped 25%, but Berkshire fell 30%.

Jason panicked and sold his entire position at the bottom, crystallizing massive losses. “I should have listened to you about diversification,” he confessed over coffee.

But Mei Lin’s systematic approach served her well. Her quarterly rebalancing in June had actually increased her Berkshire allocation when it fell below 8% of her portfolio. Now, as prices cratered further, her rebalancing discipline forced her to buy more.

“It’s counterintuitive,” she explained to her worried mother, “but when good companies get cheaper, you want to own more of them, not less.”

Chapter 6: The Recovery

By 2029, markets had not only recovered but soared to new highs. Berkshire’s patient deployment of capital during the crisis had positioned it perfectly for the upturn. Greg Abel had proven himself not just as a capable successor, but as a strategic genius in his own right.

Mei Lin’s original S$50,000 Berkshire investment was now worth S$180,000. But more importantly, her disciplined rebalancing had allowed her to buy additional shares during the crisis, amplifying her gains. Her total Berkshire holdings were worth S$250,000.

“The key was never trying to predict which scenario would play out,” she reflected. “The key was being prepared for all of them.”

Chapter 7: The Wisdom

In 2035, ten years after her initial investment, Mei Lin looked back on her journey. Her total portfolio had grown to S$1.8 million, with Berkshire contributing significantly to that growth. But the real lesson wasn’t about Berkshire specifically – it was about the power of systematic thinking.

She had treated Berkshire not as a stock pick but as a strategic allocation. A way to get exposure to high-quality American businesses while benefiting from Singapore’s tax-friendly environment. A currency hedge that happened to be run by exceptional managers.

Speaking at a Singapore investment club meeting, she shared her philosophy: “Too many investors treat individual positions like lottery tickets – they either avoid them completely out of fear or bet everything hoping to get rich quick. But the real money is made by thinking systematically about portfolio construction and risk management.”

Chapter 8: The Legacy

Years later, as Mei Lin approached retirement with a multi-million-dollar portfolio, she often thought about that pivotal decision in 2025. Not the decision to buy Berkshire – that was just one of many good investments. The real decision was to approach investing systematically rather than emotionally.

She had never tried to time the market or predict specific outcomes. Instead, she had built a framework that could work across multiple scenarios. When Berkshire succeeded, she participated in the upside while managing concentration risk. When it struggled, her diversification limited the downside. When markets crashed, her rebalancing discipline turned volatility into opportunity.

Her nephew, fresh out of university and starting his own investment journey, asked for advice.

“Auntie Mei, should I buy Berkshire Hathaway? Everyone says Greg Abel is the next Warren Buffett.”

She smiled, remembering her own uncertainty decades earlier. “The question isn’t whether you should buy Berkshire. The question is how it fits into your overall strategy. What role would it play in your portfolio? How would you manage the risks? What would you do if it goes up 50%? What if it goes down 50%?”

“Think about it not as picking winners and losers,” she continued, “but as building a system that can thrive regardless of which specific outcomes occur. That’s the real secret to long-term investing success.”

Epilogue: The Principle

As Singapore’s skyline continued to evolve and global markets continued their eternal dance of fear and greed, Mei Lin’s principle remained constant: successful investing isn’t about predicting the future – it’s about building portfolios that can adapt to whatever future arrives.

Her Berkshire investment had been successful not because she had correctly predicted Greg Abel’s success, but because she had positioned it as one component in a larger, more resilient system. The same principle that had served Warren Buffett well – not trying to time markets, but building lasting wealth through patient, systematic investing – had served her equally well.

In the end, the greatest lesson from the Oracle of Omaha wasn’t about stock picking or market timing. It was about the power of principled, long-term thinking in a world obsessed with short-term outcomes. And for a Singapore investor blessed with favorable tax treatment and growing global opportunities, that lesson was more valuable than any individual investment could ever be.

The numbers and scenarios in this story are illustrative and not intended as investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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