Imagine a nation that once soared to the moon now clipping its own wings. Stephen Greenblatt paints a vivid picture of America at a crossroads — a country that once answered the Sputnik shock with hope, unity, and bold investment, but today turns inward, pulling support from its brightest minds.
The numbers are hard to ignore. Of the world’s top ten research institutions, eight are now in China. Harvard stands alone for the U.S., a sharp fall from when American universities filled that list. This isn’t just a shift — it’s a landslide.
Greenblatt reminds us of a time when fear of falling behind sparked courage and vision. In 1958, leaders from both sides joined hands, pouring resources into schools and labs. Their bet paid off, not just in science but across all fields — feeding the spirit of discovery that shaped modern America.
But now, we see the opposite. Fellowships gone. Labs locked. Visas denied. Half a billion dollars stripped from research that could save lives. These aren’t just numbers; they’re lost dreams and lost chances.
What’s most haunting is this: America is giving up what it built, just when the world races ahead. It’s like tossing away the key to your own future.
Greenblatt’s message is clear and urgent. The choice is ours — retreat or rally. Will we watch our edge slip away, or will we remember what made us great and act before it’s too late?
This moment could be our next Sputnik — a chance to rise higher, together.
Analysis of American Scientific Research Crisis
Based on Greenblatt’s article, the current state of American scientific research and higher education represents a dramatic reversal from the post-Sputnik era:
The Nature Index Shift
The most striking indicator is the research output data: 8 of the top 10 research institutions globally are now Chinese, with Harvard as the sole remaining U.S. institution in second place, far behind the Chinese Academy of Sciences. This represents a complete transformation from a decade ago when only one Chinese institution was in the top 10.
Current Damage Assessment
Greenblatt documents several concerning developments:
- Funding cuts: Massive reductions in federal research support, including nearly $500 million in funding cuts for mRNA research
- Institutional disruption: Cancelled postdoctoral fellowships, shuttered laboratories, and denied visas
- Data purging: Removal of climate research data that international researchers depend on
- Political conditioning: Federal funding restoration tied to demands that intrude on university autonomy
Historical Context: The Sputnik Response vs. Today
The 1958 National Defense Education Act represented a unified, forward-looking response that:
- Invested massively in education ($1 billion then, equivalent to $11+ billion today)
- Created the foundation for American scientific dominance
- Deliberately protected university autonomy from government curriculum control
- Led to transformative innovations: internet, MRI, CRISPR, mRNA vaccines
Today’s approach represents the inverse: deliberate weakening of the very institutions that created American scientific leadership.
Application to Singapore’s Context
Singapore presents a fascinating contrast to the American situation, operating almost as a modern version of the post-Sputnik American model:
Singapore’s Research Investment Strategy
Singapore’s RIE (Research, Innovation and Enterprise) plans remain “a cornerstone in Singapore’s development into a knowledge-based, innovation-driven economy” and “a key enabler of Singapore’s economic competitiveness” RIE Ecosystem. The government has sustained significant investment through multiple RIE cycles, with RIE2025 representing continued commitment.
Singapore’s Global Position
Singapore’s universities demonstrate remarkable performance relative to the country’s size:
- NUS ranks 8th globally and top in Asia according to QS World University Rankings QS World University Rankings 2024: NUS rises three places to rank 8th globally
- NTU Singapore is placed 12th globally, up from 15th last year NTU Singapore is ranked 12th best university in the 2026 QS World University Rankings | NTU Singapore
- NTU ranked 2nd globally for Artificial Intelligence and Computer Science College Rankings | College of Computing and Data Science | NTU Singapore
Singapore’s Strategic Advantages
- Policy Continuity: Unlike the U.S., where research policy can shift dramatically with administrations, Singapore maintains consistent long-term investment in R&D regardless of political changes.
- Integrated Approach: Singapore’s model mirrors the successful post-Sputnik American approach – substantial government investment combined with institutional autonomy and international talent attraction.
- Scale Efficiency: As a city-state, Singapore can more easily coordinate between government agencies, research institutions, and industry than larger federal systems.
- International Positioning: Singapore benefits from being politically neutral while maintaining strong ties to both Western and Asian research communities.
Lessons for Singapore from America’s Current Crisis
- Avoid Political Interference: Singapore should resist any temptation to politicize university research or impose ideological conditions on funding.
- Maintain International Openness: America’s visa restrictions and anti-immigrant policies have damaged its ability to attract top talent. Singapore’s continued openness to international researchers provides a competitive advantage.
- Preserve Institutional Autonomy: The success of Singapore’s universities depends partly on their ability to operate with academic freedom while serving national goals.
- Long-term Perspective: Singapore’s RIE framework demonstrates the importance of sustained, multi-decade investment rather than short-term political calculations.
Singapore’s Opportunity
America’s self-inflicted damage to its scientific institutions creates an unprecedented opportunity for Singapore to:
- Attract world-class researchers leaving American institutions
- Position itself as a stable, well-funded alternative for international collaborations
- Potentially leapfrog established scientific powers through sustained investment while competitors undermine themselves
The irony is profound: Singapore, with a population of 5.9 million, may be better positioned to maintain scientific excellence than the United States, precisely because it has learned from and continued the successful American post-Sputnik model while America itself has abandoned it.
Singapore’s challenge will be maintaining this trajectory while avoiding the political polarization and short-term thinking that has undermined American scientific leadership. The current moment represents both a cautionary tale and a strategic opportunity for Singapore’s continued rise as a global research hub.
Singapore’s Scientific Excellence: Strategic Scenarios Analysis
Current Baseline Context
Singapore’s Research Investment: Singapore spends 2.2% of GDP on R&D (2020), ranking 8th globally, demonstrating sustained commitment despite its small size.
Talent Dynamics: Up to 70% of Singapore talents express willingness to leave, with Australia, US, and UK as top destinations, yet Singapore continues attracting international researchers.
Scenario 1: “Singapore Ascendant” (Probability: 40%)
The Opportunity Maximizer Scenario
Conditions:
- America’s research decline continues for 5-10 years
- China maintains growth but faces demographic/innovation plateau
- Singapore sustains political stability and research investment
Singapore’s Actions:
- Aggressive Talent Acquisition: Launch “Singapore Science Fellowship” program targeting displaced American researchers
- Strategic Partnerships: Position as neutral broker between US and Chinese research communities
- Niche Excellence: Focus on 3-4 strategic areas (AI, biotech, climate tech, quantum computing)
- Regional Hub Strategy: Become the Switzerland of Asian research
Outcomes by 2035:
- 3-5 Singapore institutions in global top 20
- Singapore becomes primary Asian destination for international research collaboration
- R&D spending reaches 3.5% of GDP
- Population grows to 7-8 million, driven by research talent immigration
Key Risks:
- Overheating of property/living costs pricing out talent
- Political pressure from major powers to “choose sides”
- Domestic brain drain as opportunities expand globally
Scenario 2: “Strategic Equilibrium” (Probability: 35%)
The Steady State Scenario
Conditions:
- America partially recovers research capacity by 2030
- China continues strong growth in research output
- Singapore maintains current trajectory with gradual improvements
Singapore’s Actions:
- Balanced Approach: Continue existing RIE framework without dramatic expansion
- Quality over Quantity: Focus on research quality and practical applications
- ASEAN Leadership: Lead regional research integration initiatives
- Innovation Translation: Excel at commercializing research from idea to market
Outcomes by 2035:
- Singapore maintains current global ranking (8-12 range for universities)
- Becomes known for research-to-market efficiency rather than pure research volume
- R&D spending stabilizes at 2.5-3.0% of GDP
- Develops distinctive model combining research excellence with rapid commercialization
Key Risks:
- Getting squeezed between larger competitors
- Losing distinctiveness as other countries copy Singapore’s model
- Complacency leading to gradual decline
Scenario 3: “Constraints and Challenges” (Probability: 20%)
The Pressure Cooker Scenario
Conditions:
- Great power competition intensifies, forcing countries to “choose sides”
- Global research collaboration becomes increasingly politicized
- Singapore faces pressure to align with either US or Chinese research ecosystems
Singapore’s Actions:
- Diplomatic Balancing Act: Attempt to maintain research neutrality
- Domestic Capacity Building: Focus heavily on developing local talent
- Selective Partnerships: Choose research collaborations very carefully
- Economic Diversification: Reduce dependence on international research funding
Outcomes by 2035:
- Singapore’s research output grows more slowly due to reduced international collaboration
- Develops strong domestic research capacity but limited global reach
- Some brain drain as researchers seek less constrained environments
- Becomes model for “research sovereignty” for smaller nations
Key Risks:
- Isolation from major research networks
- Reduced innovation due to limited collaboration
- Talent flight to countries with more open research environments
Scenario 4: “Internal Fractures” (Probability: 5%)
The Cautionary Tale Scenario
Conditions:
- Singapore experiences internal political divisions over research priorities
- Economic pressures lead to research funding cuts
- Social tensions arise over immigration and foreign talent policies
Singapore’s Actions:
- Policy Inconsistency: Research strategy becomes subject to political cycles
- Protectionist Measures: Restrictions on foreign researchers and collaboration
- Short-term Focus: Emphasis shifts to immediate economic returns from research
- Resource Competition: Different government agencies compete for limited research funds
Outcomes by 2035:
- Singapore’s research ranking declines significantly
- Brain drain accelerates as both local and international talent leave
- Loss of research infrastructure and institutional knowledge
- Becomes cautionary example of how small countries can squander advantages
Key Risks:
- Following the American model of politicizing research
- Losing the institutional memory and culture that built success
- Economic stagnation due to reduced innovation capacity
Critical Success Factors Across All Scenarios
1. Political Insulation
- Keep research policy above partisan politics
- Maintain long-term commitment regardless of leadership changes
- Resist pressure to weaponize research for political purposes
2. Talent Ecosystem Management
- Balance international recruitment with domestic development
- Create pathways for talent retention without creating social tensions
- Develop “brain circulation” rather than “brain drain” models
3. Strategic Focus
- Avoid trying to compete in all areas
- Choose 3-4 domains where Singapore can achieve global leadership
- Align research strengths with economic competitive advantages
4. Institutional Resilience
- Build research institutions that can survive leadership changes
- Create multiple funding sources to reduce dependency risks
- Develop strong academic-industry-government coordination
Key Indicators to Monitor
Early Warning Signals for Decline:
- R&D spending growth slowing relative to GDP growth
- Net talent outflow from research institutions
- Increasing politicization of research funding decisions
- Declining international collaboration metrics
Positive Momentum Signals:
- Sustained increase in international research partnerships
- Growing number of breakthrough discoveries/innovations
- Increasing talent inflow from major research countries
- Rising citations and global influence metrics
Strategic Recommendations
Immediate (2025-2027):
- Talent Opportunity Program: Launch initiative to attract researchers from countries reducing science funding
- Research Neutrality Declaration: Publicly commit to maintaining open scientific collaboration
- Infrastructure Investment: Expand research facilities to accommodate growth
- Regional Integration: Deepen ASEAN research partnerships
Medium-term (2027-2032):
- Excellence Centers: Establish 3-4 world-class research institutes in chosen domains
- Talent Circulation Programs: Create mechanisms for researchers to move between Singapore and other countries
- Innovation Translation: Build stronger pathways from research to commercialization
- Educational Integration: Strengthen links between research institutions and talent pipeline
Long-term (2032-2040):
- Global Research Hub: Position Singapore as essential node in global research networks
- Innovation Ecosystem: Create integrated research-industry-finance ecosystem
- Knowledge Diplomacy: Use research excellence as tool for international influence
- Sustainable Growth: Balance research growth with social cohesion and sustainability
The irony that Greenblatt identifies—a small city-state potentially surpassing a continental superpower in scientific excellence—becomes less ironic when viewed through these scenarios. Singapore’s advantages are structural: political stability, policy continuity, strategic focus, and the ability to move quickly. The challenge is maintaining these advantages while scaling up without losing the institutional culture that created success in the first place.
The Garden Laboratory
Chapter 1: The Migration
Dr. Sarah Chen stood in her empty MIT laboratory, packing the last of her research notes into a cardboard box. The shelves that once held years of breakthrough cancer immunotherapy research now bore only dust rectangles where equipment had been. Three months ago, she had been on the verge of a major discovery. Now, her federal funding had vanished overnight, along with the postdocs who had scattered to other countries when their visas were denied renewal.
“You sure about this?” asked her colleague, Dr. James Morrison, leaning against the doorframe. His own lab had been shuttered the week before. “Singapore’s nice, but it’s not… well, it’s not America.”
Sarah sealed the box with tape. “James, do you remember why we became scientists?”
He shrugged. “To understand the world. To help people.”
“Exactly. Not to navigate political litmus tests or justify our research to politicians who think peer review is a communist conspiracy.” She lifted the box. “Singapore still believes in that. They’re offering me a lab, unlimited access to international collaborators, and five years of guaranteed funding.”
“But the culture shock—”
“The culture shock of working in a place that actually values science?” Sarah smiled grimly. “I think I’ll manage.”
Chapter 2: The Garden City
Six months later, Sarah walked through the campus of the National University of Singapore, her morning coffee in hand, marveling at how much had changed—not just in her life, but in the global research landscape. The pathways were lined with flame trees and frangipani, their blooms creating a canopy of color that made even mundane walks to the lab feel inspiring.
Her team had grown to include researchers from twelve countries: Americans fleeing funding cuts, Europeans seeking better resources, Australians drawn by proximity to Asia’s emerging markets, and brilliant local talents who had chosen to stay rather than emigrate. They called themselves the “Brain Circulation Society,” half-joking about their nomadic careers.
“Dr. Chen!” called out Ravi, her Indian postdoc who had arrived after his visa renewal was denied in the US. “The Nature reviewers got back to us. They want to fast-track the paper.”
Sarah felt a surge of satisfaction. The breakthrough they’d achieved in Singapore in six months would have taken years under the old system—if they’d been allowed to continue at all. Here, when she needed specialized equipment, it appeared within weeks. When she required collaboration with Chinese researchers, there were no political barriers. When promising students applied for programs, their potential mattered more than their passport colors.
“Submit it,” she said. “And Ravi? Start drafting the follow-up study proposal. I have a feeling we’re just getting started.”
Chapter 3: The Tipping Point
Two years into her Singapore tenure, Sarah received an unexpected call from her former MIT department head.
“Sarah, we need to talk about bringing you back,” Professor Williams said, his voice strained. “The new administration is reversing some of the cuts. There might be opportunities—”
“Tom,” Sarah interrupted gently, “have you seen the latest Nature Index rankings?”
A pause. “I… yes.”
“NUS is now third globally in life sciences research output. Third, Tom. Behind only the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Cambridge. And we did that with a fraction of the resources Harvard has.”
“But surely you miss—”
“What do I miss? The constant uncertainty about funding? The political interference? The isolation from international collaborators?” Sarah looked out her office window at the tropical garden where students from fifty countries studied together under the shade of rain trees. “Tom, I don’t think you understand. We’re not trying to recreate American academia here. We’re building something better.”
After hanging up, Sarah walked to the weekly “Global Coffee” meeting—a tradition that had emerged organically among the international researchers. Today’s discussion was about their upcoming joint project with researchers from CERN, Beijing University, and Oxford. Such collaboration would have been impossible in the current American climate, but here it was simply Tuesday.
Chapter 4: The Recognition
Three years later, Sarah stood on the stage of the Singapore International Convention Centre, accepting the Breakthrough Prize in Life Sciences. Her cancer immunotherapy, developed entirely in Singapore with an international team, had begun human trials with remarkable results. The treatment promised to turn certain terminal cancers into manageable chronic conditions.
In the audience sat representatives from research institutions worldwide, many of whom had come not just to celebrate her work, but to understand Singapore’s model. The small island nation now hosted four of the world’s top twenty research institutes. Its graduates were leading laboratories from Sydney to Stockholm. Its collaborative approach to international research had become the new gold standard.
“Five years ago,” Sarah said to the audience, “I thought I might have to abandon my life’s work because of political winds beyond my control. Today, that work continues not despite being done in a small city-state, but because of it. Size, it turns out, can be a feature, not a bug.”
She paused, looking out at the sea of faces. “We’ve learned that scientific excellence isn’t about having the biggest budgets or the most resources. It’s about having the wisdom to invest in knowledge, the courage to welcome talent from everywhere, and the discipline to stay focused on what matters: understanding our world and improving human life.”
Chapter 5: The Next Generation
Sarah’s daughter, Emma, now fifteen, had grown up attending international schools alongside children of researchers from around the world. She spoke three languages fluently and considered herself simultaneously Singaporean, American, and global. When asked where she was from, she would smile and say, “I’m from the future.”
One evening, as they walked through the Gardens by the Bay, Emma asked, “Mom, do you ever regret leaving America?”
Sarah paused beside the Supertrees, those towering vertical gardens that had become symbols of Singapore’s ability to blend technology, nature, and ambition. The structures were beautiful and functional, just like the research ecosystem that had evolved around them.
“Emma, I didn’t leave America,” she said finally. “I found what America used to be—a place where the best minds from around the world could come together to push the boundaries of human knowledge. The America that welcomed Einstein and Tesla and countless others who fled places where politics trumped science.”
Emma nodded thoughtfully. “So Singapore is like America was after Sputnik?”
“Smarter than that, I hope. We learned from America’s mistakes as well as its successes.” Sarah gestured toward the city skyline, where research institutes glowed with the light of labs running around the clock. “The question isn’t whether small countries can compete with superpowers in science. The question is whether they can do it better.”
Epilogue: The Report
Ten years after Sarah’s arrival, the Global Science Foundation published its landmark report: “The Singapore Model: How a City-State Became a Scientific Superpower.” The report documented how Singapore had leveraged its unique advantages—political stability, strategic focus, openness to international talent, and long-term thinking—to become a disproportionately influential force in global research.
The numbers were striking: with less than 0.1% of the world’s population, Singapore was contributing to nearly 3% of the world’s most-cited research. More importantly, its model of “convening excellence”—bringing together the best minds regardless of nationality to work on humanity’s greatest challenges—had been adopted by research institutions worldwide.
Sarah, now director of the Singapore Institute for Global Health Innovation, kept a copy of her old MIT ID card in her desk drawer. Not out of nostalgia, but as a reminder. A reminder that excellence isn’t about where you come from, but where you choose to go. And sometimes, the most unlikely places—small islands in the South China Sea, tiny nations that barely register on world maps—become the gardens where the future grows.
The irony was no longer ironic. It had become inevitable.
“The best way to predict the future is to create it. But sometimes, the best way to create it is to remember what worked in the past and have the courage to do it again, better.”
— Final line from Dr. Sarah Chen’s Nobel Prize acceptance speech, Stockholm, 2035