Indonesia is currently undergoing significant political turmoil under President Prabowo Subianto, with police reforms and widespread protests testing the stability of his administration. The unrest was triggered by the killing of Affan Kurniawan, a 21-year-old ride-share driver, who died after being struck by a police vehicle during protests on August 28, 2025 (Human Rights Watch). Videos of the incident quickly spread online, fueling public outrage and drawing national attention to longstanding issues of police violence.

The demonstrations initially began in February 2025 as the “Gelap Indonesia” movement, which criticized Prabowo’s proposal to assign more military officers to civilian roles (CNN). However, the protests intensified in late August over a proposed Rp50 million monthly housing allowance for parliament members, soon evolving into broader demands for police reform and economic relief (CrimethInc).

Student groups have been at the forefront, calling for the resignation of police chief Listyo Sigit Prabowo and accountability for police abuses. Protests have spread across major cities such as Makassar and Surabaya, where government buildings were set ablaze (Wikipedia). The government’s response included the replacement of five cabinet ministers, but these measures have not calmed public anger (Al Jazeera).

Underlying these events is a deep cost-of-living crisis and widespread frustration with government policies perceived as out of touch with ordinary Indonesians (Al Jazeera). Protesters are united by concerns over inflation, rising inequality, and ongoing reports of arbitrary detentions and excessive force by security forces (Human Rights Watch).

This wave of unrest represents a major challenge to Indonesia’s democracy. The demand for comprehensive police reform and greater government accountability has become a central issue, reflecting concerns about the country’s democratic trajectory. As the situation unfolds, President Prabowo faces mounting pressure to restore trust in public institutions and address the root causes of discontent.

In conclusion, the protests mark a critical test for Prabowo’s leadership, revealing both the urgency of police reform and the fragility of democratic norms in Indonesia. The outcome will have lasting implications for the nation’s governance and civil society.

The Crisis

Indonesia is facing significant civil unrest following the death of Affan Kurniawan, a 21-year-old motorcycle taxi driver who was killed when a police tactical vehicle ran him over during protests on August 28, 2025 Center for Strategic and International StudiesHuman Rights Watch. Videos of the incident, where the police van struck Kurniawan and then sped away, have circulated widely Indonesia: End Crackdown on Protesters, Arbitrary Detention | Human Rights Watch, sparking nationwide outrage.

The Protests

The demonstrations actually began earlier with the “Gelap Indonesia” (Dark Indonesia) movement in February 2025, initially targeting Prabowo’s reforms to allocate more civilian posts for military officers Indonesia’s fury and deep resentment rages on despite crackdown. Here’s what to know | CNN. However, the wave of protests that intensified on August 25, 2025, started over a proposed Rp50 million monthly housing allowance for parliament members but has grown into a nationwide movement CrimethInc. : Voices from the Uprising in Indonesia : Affan Kurniawan Lives on in the Streets.

Student-led protesters have expanded their demands to include total reform of the Indonesian National Police and the resignation of police chief Listyo Sigit Prabowo. The protests spread nationwide following Kurniawan’s killing, with government buildings torched in cities like Makassar and Surabaya August 2025 Indonesian protests – Wikipedia.

Government Response

President Prabowo has responded by replacing five ministers after the deadly protests, with police reporting a protest death toll of seven Indonesian President Prabowo replaces five ministers after deadly protests | Protests News | Al Jazeera. However, this appears to be insufficient to quell the unrest.

Broader Issues

The protests reflect a deeper cost-of-living crisis and public frustration with a government seen as disconnected from everyday struggles Indonesia in chaos: Five Indonesians give views on why and how to fix it | Protests News | Al Jazeera. Demonstrators are angered by multiple issues including police violence, parliamentarians’ wages, and inflation Why are antigovernment protests taking place in Indonesia? | Protests News | Al Jazeera.

Democratic Implications

The Straits Times article you shared correctly identifies this as a critical test for President Prabowo’s administration. The combination of police brutality, economic hardship, and perceived government indifference has created a volatile situation that threatens Indonesia’s democratic institutions. The protesters’ demands for comprehensive police reform and accountability represent a fundamental challenge to how Indonesia’s security forces operate, with implications for the country’s democratic trajectory.

This crisis represents one of the most significant challenges to Prabowo’s presidency since he took office in 2025, testing both his commitment to reform and his ability to maintain public trust in democratic institutions.

Scenario Analysis: Indonesia’s Democratic Crossroads

Scenario 1: Comprehensive Reform Response

Probability: Medium-Low

What happens:

• Prabowo implements substantial police reforms including independent oversight bodies
• Officers responsible for Kurniawan’s death face prosecution
• Economic relief measures address cost-of-living concerns
• Constitutional protections for protest rights are strengthened

Implications:

• Democratic consolidation: Indonesia strengthens its democratic institutions and rule of law
• Public trust restored: Prabowo’s legitimacy increases, potentially defining his presidency positively
• Regional influence: Indonesia becomes a model for democratic governance in Southeast Asia
• Economic stability: Reduced social unrest attracts investment and economic growth

Challenges: Requires overcoming entrenched police and military interests that have historically resisted civilian oversight.

Scenario 2: Partial Reform with Continued Tensions

Probability: High

What happens:

• Limited police reforms that address surface issues but avoid structural changes
• Some officers are prosecuted as scapegoats while systemic problems persist
• Economic concessions are made but fail to address underlying inequality
• Periodic unrest continues at manageable levels

Implications:

• Democratic erosion: Gradual weakening of institutions through selective enforcement
• Polarization: Society becomes increasingly divided between reform advocates and status quo defenders
• International concern: Regional partners and allies express growing unease about Indonesia’s trajectory
• Economic uncertainty: Ongoing instability affects investor confidence

Outcome: Indonesia enters a prolonged period of democratic backsliding with intermittent crises.

Scenario 3: Authoritarian Retrenchment

Probability: Medium

What happens:

• Prabowo uses security forces to crush protests decisively
• Emergency powers are invoked to restrict civil liberties
• Media censorship increases and civil society organizations face crackdowns
• Military’s role in civilian governance expands significantly

Implications:

• Democratic breakdown: Indonesia joins the ranks of Southeast Asian hybrid regimes
• International isolation: Sanctions and diplomatic pressure from democratic allies
• Economic consequences: Capital flight and reduced foreign investment
• Social fragmentation: Deep societal divisions that could persist for decades

Historical precedent: This would represent a return toward New Order-style authoritarianism, particularly concerning given Prabowo’s military background.

Scenario 4: Government Collapse and Political Realignment

Probability: Low-Medium

What happens:

• Protests escalate beyond government control
• Military withdraws support from Prabowo’s administration
• Early elections or constitutional crisis occurs
• New political coalition emerges focused on democratic reform

Implications:

• Democratic renewal: Opportunity for fundamental constitutional and institutional reforms
• Regional instability: Political uncertainty in the world’s fourth-most populous country affects Southeast Asian stability
• Economic disruption: Short-term severe economic consequences but potential for long-term improvement
• International response: Major powers would likely intervene diplomatically to ensure stable transition

Critical Factors That Will Determine Outcomes

Military’s Position

The Indonesian military’s (TNI) stance will be crucial. If they maintain loyalty to Prabowo while supporting harsh crackdowns, Scenario 3 becomes more likely. If they pressure for moderate reforms or withdraw support, Scenarios 1 or 4 become possible.

Economic Conditions

The underlying cost-of-living crisis Indonesia in chaos: Five Indonesians give views on why and how to fix it | Protests News | Al Jazeera means that without addressing economic grievances, any purely political reforms may prove insufficient to restore stability.

International Pressure

Indonesia’s role in ASEAN and its relationships with major powers (US, China, Australia) could influence Prabowo’s calculations about how far he can go in either direction.

Civil Society Resilience

The strength and organization of Indonesian civil society, including student movements, NGOs, and media, will determine whether democratic pressure can be sustained.

Regional and Global Implications

For ASEAN

Indonesia’s democratic trajectory affects the entire region. Authoritarian retrenchment could embolden similar moves in other ASEAN states, while successful democratic consolidation could inspire reform movements elsewhere.

For Great Power Competition

• US concerns: Democratic backsliding would complicate the US-Indonesia strategic partnership
• Chinese opportunity: Beijing might see advantage in a more authoritarian Indonesia less aligned with Western democratic values
• Australian implications: Indonesia’s instability directly affects Australia’s security environment

Most Likely Outcome: Muddling Through

Given Indonesia’s historical patterns and institutional constraints, Scenario 2 (partial reform with continued tensions) appears most probable. This would involve:

• Cosmetic police reforms that don’t address structural issues
• Economic measures that provide temporary relief without fundamental change
• Continued periodic unrest that becomes normalized
• Gradual democratic erosion rather than dramatic breakdown

However, the wildcard is Prabowo himself. His military background and past associations with authoritarianism create uncertainty about his democratic commitments when faced with sustained pressure. The next 6-12 months will likely determine which scenario unfolds, making this period crucial for Indonesia’s democratic future.

The international community’s response will also be critical—strong diplomatic pressure for reform could help tip the balance toward Scenario 1, while indifference might enable a drift toward Scenario 3.

The Weight of History: A Jakarta Story

Chapter 1: The Morning After

The acrid smell of smoke still hung over Jakarta’s streets as Dr. Sari Putri made her way through the debris-strewn sidewalks to her office at the Indonesian Institute for Policy Studies. Broken glass crunched under her feet, remnants of the previous night’s protests that had erupted after another video surfaced—this one showing police officers laughing as they drove away from Affan Kurniawan’s crumpled body.

Sari had spent twenty years studying Indonesia’s fragile democracy, watching it bloom after Suharto’s fall, then slowly wither under the weight of corruption, military influence, and institutional weakness. Now, at fifty-two, she found herself documenting what might be its final chapter.

Her phone buzzed with a message from her old friend Ambassador James Morrison at the U.S. Embassy: “Coffee today? We need to talk.”

Chapter 2: The Palace Deliberation

Three kilometers away, in the presidential palace, Prabowo Subianto stood before a wall-mounted map of Indonesia, its 17,000 islands sprawling across the vast archipelago. Behind him, his advisors argued in heated whispers.

“Sir, we must act decisively,” urged General Hartono, his defense minister and old military colleague. “These protesters are testing our resolve. One show of force—”

“And risk becoming Suharto 2.0?” interrupted Finance Minister Dr. Indira Sari, one of the few civilians in his inner circle. “The economy can’t handle prolonged instability. Foreign investors are already pulling out.”

Prabowo remained silent, his weathered face reflecting decades of military discipline and political calculation. He remembered the 1998 riots that had ended Suharto’s reign, the chaos that had nearly torn the nation apart. But he also remembered the power that came with order, the efficiency of military rule.

“What does the polling say?” he finally asked.

His chief of staff, Maria Tanoto, cleared her throat. “Sixty-three percent support for police reform, but only thirty-seven percent trust the protesters’ motives. The public wants change, but they fear chaos more.”

“Then we give them reform,” Prabowo said quietly. “But controlled reform. Our kind of reform.”

Chapter 3: The Academic’s Dilemma

At the coffee shop near the embassy, Sari stirred her kopi tubruk absently as Ambassador Morrison leaned forward across the small table.

“Washington is watching this closely, Sari. The Secretary wants to know—is this the moment Indonesia chooses its path?”

Sari had known James since her graduate school days at Georgetown. They’d debated democracy theory in seminar rooms; now they were living it in real time.

“You want my honest assessment?” she asked. “Prabowo isn’t Suharto, but he isn’t Jokowi either. He’s caught between his military instincts and political survival. The question is whether external pressure can tip him toward reform or push him toward authoritarianism.”

Morrison nodded grimly. “What would tip him toward reform?”

“Carrots and sticks. Trade agreements, investment promises if he reforms. But also consequences if he doesn’t. The problem is, Beijing is offering an alternative model—the China path. Stability through control, prosperity without democracy.”

“And you think he’s tempted?”

Sari looked out at the street, where workers were sweeping up glass from the previous night’s unrest. “I think he’s calculating. And that terrifies me more than if he were just power-hungry. Calculating leaders can convince themselves that authoritarianism serves the greater good.”

Chapter 4: The Student’s Resolve

At the University of Indonesia, twenty-year-old Ahmad Riski sat in a circle with his fellow student organizers, planning the next phase of their movement. The death of Affan—just one year older than most of them—had transformed their protests from a complaints about parliamentary allowances into something deeper.

“The government announced new police oversight committees,” said Dina, the student body president. “Prabowo says he’s committed to reform.”

Ahmad scoffed. “Committees? We’ve seen this before. They’ll investigate themselves and find no wrongdoing. Meanwhile, officers who kill delivery drivers go unpunished.”

“But some change is better than no change,” argued Rizal, ever the pragmatist. “If we push too hard, we risk a crackdown.”

Ahmad stood, pacing to the window that overlooked the campus where his grandfather had once protested Suharto. “My grandfather’s generation fought for democracy. My parents’ generation won it. Are we the generation that loses it?”

The room fell silent. Outside, they could see police vehicles stationed at the campus gates—a reminder that their democratic space was shrinking.

“Tomorrow we march again,” Ahmad decided. “But this time, we invite everyone—workers, teachers, families. Show them that this isn’t about student politics. It’s about the Indonesia we want to live in.”

Chapter 5: The Businessman’s Calculation

In his glass-walled office overlooking Jakarta’s business district, CEO Budi Santoso ended another conference call with nervous investors. His textile company employed 50,000 people across Java and Sumatra, and the ongoing unrest was strangling his supply chains.

His assistant knocked and entered. “Sir, you have a call from the Palace. The President would like to speak with you and the other business leaders.”

Budi sighed. He’d known this call would come. Prabowo was reaching out to his business allies, seeking support for whatever path he chose next. The business community had backed Suharto until the end, prioritizing stability over democracy. Were they about to make the same choice again?

An hour later, Budi sat in the presidential palace’s ornate meeting room with a dozen other business leaders. Prabowo entered, still carrying the bearing of a military officer despite his civilian suit.

“Gentlemen, ladies,” Prabowo began, “we face a choice. We can allow these protests to destabilize our nation, or we can restore order and focus on economic growth. I need to know—do I have your support?”

The room was silent. Everyone understood the subtext. Support for “order” meant accepting whatever measures Prabowo deemed necessary.

Finally, Budi spoke: “Mr. President, what kind of order are we talking about? And at what cost to our international relationships?”

Prabowo’s eyes narrowed slightly. “The kind of order that allows businesses to operate, workers to earn, and families to live safely. As for international relationships—we trade with everyone. The Americans, the Chinese, the Europeans. They all want our markets more than they want our democracy.”

Budi felt a chill. In that moment, he realized they were witnessing the birth of an Indonesian model of authoritarianism—pragmatic, economically focused, but ultimately hollow.

Chapter 6: The Tipping Point

Two weeks later, the crisis reached its crescendo. A second video emerged showing police destroying evidence from the Affan Kurniawan incident. Students, joined by labor unions and civil society groups, surrounded parliament. International media descended on Jakarta.

Sari watched the coverage from her office, noting how CNN and BBC framed it as a test of Southeast Asian democracy, while Chinese state media emphasized the importance of stability and economic development.

Her phone rang. It was Morrison again.

“The Secretary is flying to Jakarta tomorrow,” he said. “She wants a meeting with Prabowo. What should she offer?”

Sari thought carefully. This was the moment—the window when external pressure could still make a difference.

“A pathway to economic partnership if he chooses reform. Indonesia has everything to gain from deeper integration with democratic allies—trade, technology, investment. But she needs to be clear about consequences too. Democratic backsliding means Indonesia isolates itself from the Western economic system.”

“And if he chooses the China model?”

“Then we’ll be watching the birth of the world’s third-largest democracy’s transformation into something else entirely. And once that happens, the rest of Southeast Asia follows.”

Chapter 7: The Decision

The meeting between Secretary of State Sarah Chen and President Prabowo took place in private, away from cameras and advisors. They sat across from each other in Prabowo’s study, the weight of history between them.

“Mr. President,” Secretary Chen began, “you have an opportunity to lead Indonesia into a new era of prosperity and partnership. But it requires commitment to democratic institutions and rule of law.”

Prabowo studied the American diplomat carefully. “And if I choose stability over chaos? If I prioritize economic development over political theater?”

“Then Indonesia risks isolation from the democratic world. Trade relationships, technology transfer, investment—all of it depends on shared values.”

Prabowo smiled thinly. “Secretary Chen, with respect, Indonesia survived Dutch colonialism, Japanese occupation, and Cold War proxy conflicts. We’ll survive American disappointment too.”

That evening, Prabowo announced his decision on national television. He would implement police reforms, but they would be gradual, measured, and supervised by the military. Economic relief would come, but protesters who disturbed public order would face consequences. Democracy would be preserved, but it would be Indonesian democracy—stable, guided, controlled.

Epilogue: Six Months Later

Dr. Sari Putri published her paper on “Managed Democracy in the Digital Age: Indonesia’s Third Path” six months after the crisis. She documented how Prabowo had successfully navigated between revolution and reaction, creating a system that preserved democratic forms while hollowing out democratic substance.

The police reforms were real but limited—oversight committees with limited power, disciplinary measures that rarely resulted in prosecutions, transparency initiatives that revealed little. Periodic protests continued but were contained within acceptable boundaries. International criticism was muted by Indonesia’s economic importance and strategic location.

Ahmad Riski, the student leader, left Indonesia for graduate school in Australia. “I couldn’t watch my country become a museum of democracy,” he told Sari in their final interview.

Budi Santoso’s business thrived under the new stability, but he privately worried about his children’s future. “We traded our conscience for our comfort,” he confided to his wife.

Ambassador Morrison was reassigned to Seoul, his replacement tasked with managing a “complex but important relationship” with Indonesia’s increasingly authoritarian democracy.

And Prabowo? He won re-election two years later with 67% of the vote in an election international observers called “technically free but substantively constrained.” He had successfully created the Indonesian model—neither fully democratic nor openly authoritarian, but something in between that seemed to work for most Indonesians most of the time.

The price, Sari wrote in her conclusion, was not just Indonesian democracy, but the hope that democracy could survive and thrive in an increasingly complex world. Indonesia’s choice would echo across the archipelago and beyond, as other nations studied the Indonesian model and asked themselves: Why choose the messiness of democracy when you could have the efficiency of managed stability?

The question remained unanswered as the sun set over Jakarta, its light reflecting off the glass towers of a nation that had chosen prosperity over principles, stability over struggle, and comfort over the uncomfortable demands of democracy.

In her final paragraph, Dr. Sari Putri wrote: “The tragedy of Indonesia’s democratic erosion was not that it happened suddenly or dramatically, but that it happened so gradually and reasonably that most people barely noticed until it was too late to reverse.”

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