Vietnam’s Communist Party General Secretary To Lam’s planned three-day visit to North Korea beginning October 9, 2025, represents a significant diplomatic development in East Asian geopolitics. As the first Vietnamese leader to visit Pyongyang in nearly two decades, this trip carries implications that extend far beyond bilateral relations, touching upon regional security dynamics, great power competition, and the delicate balance of interests that define Southeast Asian diplomacy. For Singapore, a nation built on trade, stability, and multilateral engagement, understanding the reverberations of this visit is crucial to navigating an increasingly complex regional landscape.
Historical Context: A Relationship Rooted in Ideology
The relationship between Vietnam and North Korea traces its origins to the Cold War era, when both nations fought wars of national liberation against Western-backed forces. President Ho Chi Minh’s 1957 visit to Pyongyang established a foundation of socialist solidarity that has persisted through decades of dramatic global change. The 2007 visit by Communist Party Chief Nong Duc Manh represented the last high-level engagement before the current rapprochement.
What makes 2025 particularly significant is the convergence of multiple anniversaries: 75 years of diplomatic relations between the two nations and 80 years since the founding of North Korea’s Workers’ Party. These symbolic milestones provide political cover for renewed engagement at a time when both nations face distinct but related pressures from the evolving international order.
The absence of trade relations between the two countries, as noted by the Vietnamese embassy in Pyongyang, underscores an important reality: this relationship is fundamentally political and ideological rather than economic. This distinguishes it from Vietnam’s pragmatic economic partnerships with capitalist nations and suggests that the visit serves strategic rather than commercial purposes.
Strategic Motivations: Vietnam’s Balancing Act
Vietnam’s foreign policy has long been characterized by sophisticated hedging strategies, maintaining relationships with competing powers while jealously guarding its independence. To Lam’s visit to North Korea must be understood within this broader framework of strategic autonomy.
Diversifying Diplomatic Options
Vietnam faces increasing pressure to align with either the United States-led bloc or the China-Russia axis. By maintaining and even strengthening ties with North Korea—a nation largely isolated from Western institutions—Hanoi signals its refusal to be boxed into a binary geopolitical framework. This diversification of diplomatic relationships provides Vietnam with additional leverage in its dealings with major powers.
The timing is particularly telling. To Lam visited South Korea in August 2025, becoming the first foreign leader hosted by President Lee Jae Myung. Following that trip with a visit to South Korea’s bitter rival sends a clear message: Vietnam will engage with all parties on its own terms, regardless of their mutual antagonisms.
Managing the China Factor
China looms large in any analysis of Vietnamese strategic thinking. Despite improving economic ties, Vietnam harbors deep historical grievances and contemporary territorial disputes with its northern neighbor, particularly regarding the South China Sea. North Korea, while a Chinese ally, maintains its own complex relationship with Beijing, having occasionally defied Chinese preferences.
By strengthening ties with Pyongyang, Vietnam may be seeking to create additional channels of communication and influence within the broader Northeast Asian security complex. If tensions escalate in the region, having established relationships with all players—including the unpredictable North Korean regime—could prove valuable.
Solidarity Among Socialist States
The ideological dimension cannot be dismissed. Despite Vietnam’s embrace of market reforms, the Communist Party maintains its monopoly on political power and continues to draw legitimacy from its revolutionary heritage. Engagement with North Korea, one of the world’s few remaining orthodox socialist states, serves to reinforce the party’s ideological credentials domestically while signaling continuity with Vietnam’s revolutionary past.
This is particularly relevant for To Lam, who has consolidated power since assuming the general secretary position. Demonstrating his credentials as a guardian of socialist values may strengthen his domestic position while appealing to conservative factions within the Vietnamese Communist Party.
Regional Security Implications
The visit occurs against a backdrop of heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula and broader Indo-Pacific instability. Several factors amplify the significance of this diplomatic engagement:
North Korea’s Nuclear Posture
North Korea’s continued development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles represents the most acute security challenge in Northeast Asia. While Vietnam has no direct role in Korean Peninsula affairs, its willingness to engage with Pyongyang at the leadership level could influence regional dynamics in subtle ways.
If Vietnam is perceived as providing diplomatic legitimacy to the Kim Jong Un regime through high-level engagement, it could complicate efforts to maintain international pressure on North Korea’s weapons programs. Conversely, Vietnam’s unique position as a nation with ties to both Pyongyang and Washington could theoretically position Hanoi as a potential intermediary, though there is little evidence this is being actively pursued.
The Russia-North Korea Military Axis
Recent years have seen strengthening military cooperation between Russia and North Korea, with allegations of North Korean munitions supporting Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. Vietnam maintains important defense relationships with Russia, inheriting extensive military ties from the Soviet era while simultaneously expanding security cooperation with the United States.
Vietnam’s engagement with North Korea may reflect an effort to understand and potentially influence the Russia-North Korea relationship, particularly as it affects regional security calculations. The inclusion of Vietnamese Defense Minister Phan Van Giang in the delegation suggests military-to-military discussions may be on the agenda.
ASEAN Centrality and Non-Alignment
As a leading member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Vietnam has been a strong advocate for the principle of “ASEAN centrality”—the idea that Southeast Asian nations should play the central role in shaping regional architecture. This visit reinforces Vietnam’s commitment to an independent foreign policy that resists pressure to align with any particular bloc.
However, it also exposes tensions within ASEAN itself. While some members may view Vietnam’s approach as a defense of strategic autonomy, others—particularly those with closer ties to the United States and its allies—may see it as unnecessarily provocative or complicating efforts to present a united front on regional security issues.
Implications for Singapore: Navigating Complexity
For Singapore, Vietnam’s North Korea visit presents both challenges and opportunities that must be carefully calibrated in the context of the city-state’s unique vulnerabilities and strategic imperatives.
Trade and Economic Stability
Singapore’s economy is fundamentally dependent on open trade routes, stable regional relationships, and the predictability of international rules-based order. Any development that increases regional tensions or creates uncertainty in maritime trade routes represents a potential threat to Singaporean prosperity.
Vietnam’s engagement with North Korea, by itself, poses no direct economic threat. However, if it contributes to broader regional instability or complicates efforts to manage Korean Peninsula tensions, the ripple effects could impact trade flows, investor confidence, and regional economic integration efforts. Singapore has invested heavily in ASEAN economic cooperation, and divergent foreign policy approaches among member states can complicate efforts to present a unified economic front to external partners.
Singapore also maintains significant economic ties with both Vietnam and South Korea. Vietnam is a major trading partner and an increasingly important destination for Singaporean investment, particularly in manufacturing and technology sectors. South Korea is a crucial partner in trade, investment, and technology transfer. Any perception that Vietnam’s diplomatic maneuvers complicate regional stability could affect investor calculations about risk and opportunity in Southeast Asia.
Security Architecture Concerns
Singapore has long advocated for a multilateral security architecture that includes major powers while preserving regional autonomy. The city-state has carefully cultivated defense relationships with the United States, China, and regional partners, seeking to avoid being forced to choose sides in great power competition.
Vietnam’s approach—maintaining relationships across ideological and geopolitical divides—aligns philosophically with Singapore’s own hedging strategy. However, the specific case of North Korea is particularly sensitive. As a nation under extensive international sanctions and widely viewed as a destabilizing force, North Korea presents unique challenges for countries seeking to maintain balanced foreign policies.
If Vietnam’s engagement with Pyongyang is perceived as undermining international efforts to address North Korean proliferation, it could strain Vietnam-Singapore relations and complicate ASEAN efforts to speak with one voice on security matters. Singapore has consistently supported UN sanctions on North Korea and has been vocal about the importance of nuclear non-proliferation. Any action that appears to weaken this norm is problematic from Singapore’s perspective.
ASEAN Unity and Effectiveness
Perhaps the most significant concern for Singapore relates to ASEAN cohesion. Singapore has been one of the most consistent advocates for ASEAN’s role as a central player in regional affairs, hosting the ASEAN Secretariat and investing considerable diplomatic capital in strengthening the organization’s institutions and effectiveness.
ASEAN operates on the principle of consensus, which means divergent foreign policy positions among member states can paralyze the organization’s ability to respond to regional challenges. Vietnam’s independent diplomatic initiatives, while understandable from Hanoi’s perspective, add complexity to ASEAN’s efforts to maintain relevance and unity in an era of great power competition.
The contrast between Vietnam’s visit to North Korea and Singapore’s own foreign policy approach is instructive. While Singapore maintains some level of diplomatic relations with North Korea, it has been careful to align with international sanctions and avoid high-profile engagement that could be interpreted as legitimizing the regime. Singapore’s approach reflects its calculation that the risks of being perceived as soft on proliferation outweigh any potential benefits from diplomatic engagement.
Different approaches among ASEAN members to relations with North Korea could create exploitable divisions. External powers—whether the United States, China, or others—might leverage these differences to advance their own interests, potentially at the expense of ASEAN autonomy and unity.
The APEC Summit Context
The upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju, South Korea, scheduled for October 29, 2025, adds another layer of complexity. With both U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping expected to attend, the summit represents a critical moment for regional diplomacy and economic cooperation.
Vietnam’s visit to North Korea just weeks before the APEC summit in South Korea creates an awkward diplomatic situation. South Korea, which has invested heavily in APEC as a platform to demonstrate its regional leadership, may find Vietnam’s engagement with its adversary unhelpful. This could complicate cooperation on APEC initiatives and broader regional economic integration efforts.
For Singapore, which benefits enormously from APEC’s role in promoting trade liberalization and economic cooperation, anything that introduces friction into the summit or distracts from its economic agenda is unwelcome. The city-state has a strong interest in ensuring APEC remains focused on economic issues rather than being consumed by security rivalries and political tensions.
Strategic Autonomy vs. International Norms
Vietnam’s visit to North Korea highlights a fundamental tension in regional diplomacy: the balance between strategic autonomy and adherence to international norms. Both Singapore and Vietnam value independence and resist pressure to align completely with any particular power bloc. However, they differ in their assessment of where to draw lines.
Singapore has generally taken the position that certain international norms—particularly regarding nuclear non-proliferation and sanctions enforcement—are sufficiently important that upholding them takes precedence over absolute diplomatic flexibility. This reflects Singapore’s assessment that the rules-based international order, for all its flaws, serves the interests of small states that lack the raw power to defend their interests through coercion.
Vietnam’s apparent willingness to maintain high-level engagement with one of the world’s most sanctioned and isolated regimes suggests a different calculus: that strategic autonomy and diplomatic flexibility are paramount, even when this brings a nation into potential conflict with prevailing international norms.
For Singapore, this difference in approach is not merely academic. If Vietnam’s model of strategic autonomy gains traction among other ASEAN members, it could weaken the organization’s collective commitment to international law and norms. This would be particularly concerning in the context of South China Sea disputes, where adherence to international law (including the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea) is central to Singapore’s position.
Scenarios and Contingencies
Looking ahead, several scenarios merit consideration as Singapore assesses the implications of Vietnam’s North Korea engagement:
Scenario 1: Symbolic Visit with Limited Impact
The most benign scenario is that To Lam’s visit remains primarily symbolic, focused on commemorating historical ties and attending anniversary celebrations without substantial policy outcomes. In this case, regional impact would be minimal, and concerns about ASEAN unity or sanctions enforcement would prove overblown.
This scenario seems most likely given the lack of trade relations between Vietnam and North Korea and the limited areas of practical cooperation. The visit may simply represent Vietnam’s assertion of diplomatic independence without signaling major policy shifts.
Scenario 2: Expanded Cooperation
A more concerning scenario would involve announcements of expanded cooperation between Vietnam and North Korea, potentially including increased diplomatic exchanges, cultural programs, or economic initiatives (even if modest). While unlikely to violate UN sanctions directly, such developments would signal a more substantial warming of relations.
This could complicate Singapore’s relationship with Vietnam and create divisions within ASEAN. It might also attract critical attention from the United States and its allies, potentially affecting Vietnam’s broader foreign relations and, by extension, regional dynamics that Singapore depends upon.
Scenario 3: Vietnam as Intermediary
A more positive scenario would involve Vietnam positioning itself as a potential bridge between North Korea and the international community. Vietnam’s own experience of moving from isolation to integration could theoretically provide a model, and Hanoi might offer to facilitate dialogue or provide insights into Pyongyang’s thinking.
If this were to occur, it could enhance ASEAN’s relevance to Korean Peninsula affairs and demonstrate the value of the organization’s inclusive approach to diplomacy. Singapore would likely welcome this development, as it would align with the city-state’s vision of ASEAN as a constructive force in regional security.
However, there is little evidence that Vietnam has the influence in Pyongyang or the mandate from other stakeholders to play such a role effectively. North Korea’s relationships are primarily managed through direct engagement with major powers, particularly China, Russia, and the United States.
Scenario 4: Regional Realignment
The most challenging scenario would involve Vietnam’s North Korea engagement being part of a broader realignment in which Hanoi moves closer to a China-Russia axis while distancing itself from U.S.-aligned countries. This would represent a fundamental shift in Vietnam’s hedging strategy with profound implications for regional architecture.
While this scenario seems unlikely given Vietnam’s deep economic ties to the West and its territorial disputes with China, it cannot be entirely dismissed. If Vietnam were to conclude that great power competition has reached a point where hedging is no longer viable, it might opt for a clearer alignment.
For Singapore, this would be deeply problematic, potentially splitting ASEAN between U.S.-aligned and China-aligned camps and undermining the organization’s ability to function as a unified actor. It would also complicate Singapore’s own hedging strategy and force difficult choices about partnerships and alignments.
Singapore’s Policy Options
Given these considerations, Singapore faces several policy choices in responding to Vietnam’s North Korea engagement:
Quiet Diplomacy
The most likely approach involves behind-the-scenes diplomatic engagement with Vietnam to understand Hanoi’s motivations and objectives. Singapore’s diplomats are skilled at maintaining relationships across ideological and political divides, and quiet consultations would allow Singapore to express any concerns while maintaining the bilateral relationship.
This approach has the advantage of preserving ASEAN unity while allowing Singapore to signal its position on issues like sanctions enforcement and non-proliferation. It also avoids public criticism that could drive Vietnam toward more assertive positions or create unnecessary friction.
ASEAN Dialogue
Singapore could use ASEAN mechanisms to facilitate discussion about member states’ approaches to relations with countries under international sanctions. This would not single out Vietnam but would allow for a broader conversation about how ASEAN members balance strategic autonomy with international obligations.
Such dialogue could help establish informal norms or guidelines that preserve member states’ foreign policy independence while ensuring ASEAN’s collective positions remain consistent with international law and the organization’s stated principles.
Reinforcing Partnerships
Singapore could use this moment to strengthen its own partnerships with like-minded countries that share its emphasis on rules-based order and multilateral institutions. This might include deeper engagement with countries like Japan, Australia, and South Korea, as well as continued cultivation of strong U.S. ties.
By reinforcing these relationships, Singapore would be better positioned to weather any regional instability that might result from divergent foreign policy approaches within ASEAN. It would also signal Singapore’s continued commitment to international norms without directly confronting Vietnam.
Economic Engagement
Paradoxically, increasing economic engagement with Vietnam could provide Singapore with greater influence over Hanoi’s strategic calculations. If Vietnam perceives significant economic benefits from its ASEAN partnerships and integration into regional supply chains, it may be more inclined to consider how its diplomatic initiatives affect these relationships.
Singapore is already a major investor in Vietnam and could use economic tools to gently encourage policy approaches that align with regional stability and ASEAN cohesion.
Broader Implications for Regional Order
Vietnam’s North Korea visit reflects and reinforces several broader trends in regional politics that Singapore must navigate:
Declining American Influence
The willingness of regional middle powers to engage with countries outside the U.S.-led alliance system reflects perceptions of declining American reliability and influence. While the United States remains the most powerful military actor in the Indo-Pacific, its political commitment to the region is frequently questioned.
For Singapore, which has carefully cultivated U.S. security ties while maintaining economic relationships with China and others, any erosion of American influence creates challenges. The city-state benefits from the security umbrella and rules-based order that U.S. engagement has historically provided, even as it seeks to avoid overdependence on any single partner.
Rise of Multipolarity
Vietnam’s ability to maintain relationships with North Korea, South Korea, the United States, China, and Russia simultaneously reflects the increasingly multipolar nature of regional politics. No single power can compel alignment, and middle powers have greater freedom to pursue independent policies.
This trend offers both opportunities and risks for Singapore. Greater multipolarity can provide more space for small states to maneuver and resist pressure from larger neighbors. However, it can also increase uncertainty, complicate collective action, and make regional institutions less effective.
Erosion of Norms
Perhaps most concerning from Singapore’s perspective is the potential for gradual erosion of international norms, particularly regarding sanctions enforcement and non-proliferation. If countries feel free to engage with heavily sanctioned regimes like North Korea without consequence, the entire framework of international pressure on rogue actors weakens.
Singapore has a profound interest in preserving international norms, even imperfect ones. As a small state in a potentially hostile neighborhood, Singapore’s security and prosperity depend heavily on the principle that rules rather than raw power should govern international relations.
Conclusion
Vietnam’s Communist Party chief To Lam’s visit to North Korea represents more than a bilateral diplomatic event; it is a symptom of broader shifts in regional politics that have significant implications for Singapore and Southeast Asia. The visit reflects Vietnam’s commitment to strategic autonomy, its complex relationships with major powers, and the continuing relevance of ideological factors in shaping foreign policy.
For Singapore, the visit presents manageable challenges rather than existential threats, but it requires careful attention and skillful diplomacy. The city-state must balance respect for Vietnam’s sovereignty and foreign policy independence with concerns about ASEAN unity, international norms, and regional stability.
Several principles should guide Singapore’s response:
First, maintain perspective. Vietnam’s North Korea engagement, while noteworthy, does not fundamentally alter the regional balance of power or immediately threaten Singaporean interests. Overreaction would be counterproductive.
Second, prioritize dialogue. Understanding Vietnam’s motivations and objectives through diplomatic engagement will be more productive than public criticism or pressure.
Third, strengthen institutions. ASEAN’s relevance depends on its ability to accommodate diverse foreign policy approaches while maintaining basic cohesion around core principles. Working to strengthen ASEAN mechanisms and norms serves Singapore’s long-term interests.
Fourth, reinforce partnerships. Singapore’s security and prosperity depend on a network of relationships that provide options and resilience in times of uncertainty. Continuing to invest in these partnerships ensures Singapore is not overly dependent on any single relationship or regional dynamic.
Finally, remain adaptable. The regional environment is evolving rapidly, and rigid policy frameworks may prove inadequate. Singapore’s historic strength has been its ability to read shifting dynamics and adjust its approach accordingly while maintaining core principles.
As Vietnam’s leadership arrives in Pyongyang for the October 10 anniversary celebrations, observers in Singapore will be watching carefully—not just for what is said and agreed, but for what this visit reveals about the trajectory of regional politics in an era of great power competition and declining certainty. In navigating these complexities, Singapore must draw on its considerable diplomatic skills, economic strengths, and strategic foresight to ensure that whatever changes come, the city-state remains secure, prosperous, and relevant in shaping its regional environment.
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