Sabah Chief Minister Hajiji Mohd Noor has dissolved the state assembly. This move sets the stage for elections within 60 days. The vote will draw in several key players. No group seems set to claim a clear win among the 73 seats.
Hajiji leads the GRS-PH alliance. GRS stands for Gabungan Rakyat Sabah. It now ties with PH, the Pakatan Harapan group backed by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. This partnership aims to hold power. Yet cracks show inside. Two groups left GRS. Star and SAPP pulled out over fights about seat shares with PH members. These exits weaken the team. Voters may see this as disunity.
Bung Moktar Radin heads BN Sabah. Barisan Nasional lost ground here before. He served as deputy chief minister once. Now he seeks payback after his removal. His push adds heat to the race. He draws support from those upset with the current setup.
Parti Warisan Sabah fights as the main opposition. It pushes local rights and Sabah’s own path. Perikatan Nasional plans to run in every seat. But few expect it to win big. It lacks strong roots in the state. New faces join too. Parti KDM targets Kadazan-Dusun-Murut voters. A group of independents calls itself the “black waves” movement. They tap into anger over outside control.
The current leaders face tough tests. Power cuts hit Sabah hard. Blackouts happen often. They spark wide frustration. Water shortages add to the pain. In mid-September, floods struck. Some spots lost power for 20 hours a day over four days. Homes and shops went dark. People lost work and sleep. These issues fuel doubts about the government’s handling.
Talk of corruption spreads fast. A video surfaced. It points to ministers and lawmakers in a mining scam. The claims stir outrage. They question trust in officials. Many ask how leaders can fix real problems if scandals linger.
Sabah nationalism grows stronger. The “Sabah for Sabahans” call rings loud. It demands that parties from peninsular Malaysia stay out. Locals want control over their land and resources. This mood could sway votes away from national groups.
Social woes hit deep. Take the case of Zara Qairina Mahathir. She was 13. She died in what many call a bullying incident at school. Her story led to protests. Crowds gathered in rare shows of anger. Parents and youth demanded change. Schools face new scrutiny now. Such events highlight gaps in safety and care.
This vote tests Anwar Ibrahim on a national scale. He deals with rising living costs. Promises from his time in power remain unmet. Back in August 2023, his group saw split results in another state race. Wins came in some spots. Losses hit others. Sabah could show if his hold stays firm.
Experts see no easy path to victory. A group needs 37 seats for control. Few think any one side will get there. After the 2020 vote, deals formed late. Bargaining followed. The same may happen here. Coalitions could shift based on who gains ground. This setup keeps the outcome open and tense.
The dissolution of Sabah’s state assembly on October 6, 2025, has set the stage for what political analysts are calling Malaysia’s most unpredictable electoral contest in recent memory. With no coalition expected to secure an outright majority in the 73-seat legislature, the upcoming polls—to be held within 60 days—will test not only Chief Minister Hajiji Mohd Noor’s political survival but also Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s national standing at the midpoint of his tenure.
For Singapore, the outcome carries significant implications across multiple dimensions: border security, economic cooperation, water supply agreements, and regional stability in a shared maritime neighborhood.
The Fragmented Political Landscape: A State Divided
Understanding Sabah’s Unique Political DNA
Sabah politics operates on fundamentally different principles than Peninsular Malaysia. Where national politics often revolves around race and religion—particularly Malay-Muslim identity—Sabah’s political fault lines run along:
- Geographic divisions: East coast versus west coast, urban versus interior
- Indigenous ethnic loyalties: Kadazandusun Murut (KDM) communities, Bajau, Suluk, and Chinese populations
- Personality-driven factions: Individual leaders command stronger loyalty than party ideology
- State nationalism: Growing “Sabah for Sabahans” sentiment rejecting external interference
This complexity explains why Merdeka Center’s Tan Seng Keat describes the state as having “at least seven major forces”—an unprecedented level of fragmentation even by Malaysian standards.
The Main Players and Their Positioning
1. GRS-PH Alliance (Incumbent)
Strengths:
- Incumbency advantage with access to state resources
- Backing from federal government under PM Anwar Ibrahim
- Control of bureaucratic machinery
- Hajiji’s relatively moderate image appeals to diverse constituencies
Critical Weaknesses:
- Loss of Star (6 seats) and SAPP over seat allocation disputes
- Infrastructure failures have damaged credibility
- Corruption scandal involving multiple ministers
- PH partnership triggers “Sabah for Sabahans” backlash
2. BN Sabah (Bung Moktar Faction)
Strengths:
- Established party machinery and grassroots networks
- Bung Moktar’s personal popularity in certain districts
- Can position as “true Sabahan” alternative without PH baggage
- May attract defectors from weakened GRS
Weaknesses:
- Internal divisions within BN Sabah itself
- Bung Moktar’s failed 2023 coup attempt damaged credibility
- Limited appeal beyond traditional Umno strongholds
- Association with “old politics” may alienate younger voters
3. Parti Warisan Sabah
Strengths:
- Led by former Chief Minister with governance experience
- Successfully mobilized opposition base in 2020
- Clean governance reputation compared to corruption-tainted rivals
- Natural home for anti-GRS sentiment
Weaknesses:
- Lost power in 2020 post-election maneuvering
- Resource constraints compared to incumbents
- Must overcome “party of yesterday” perception
4. Emerging Forces: Parti KDM and Independent Movements
Perhaps the most intriguing development is the rise of new players targeting specific demographic niches:
Parti KDM (Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat):
- Founded in 2022, specifically targeting younger KDM voters
- Represents generational shift away from Star’s aging leadership
- Strong base in Tenom interior district
- Could prove kingmaker if established parties fragment further
“Black Waves” (Gelombang Hitam):
- Movement of independent candidates led by Kudat MP Verdon Bahanda
- Capitalizes on disillusionment with party politics
- Concentrated in northern Sabah
- Unpredictable impact—could either split votes or consolidate protest sentiment
The Mathematics of Coalition Building
With 73 seats in play, the magic number is 37 for a simple majority. Current projections suggest:
- GRS-PH: 28-32 seats (down from 42)
- BN Sabah: 12-16 seats
- Warisan: 15-20 seats
- Star/SAPP: 6-10 seats (now independent of GRS)
- Parti KDM: 3-6 seats
- Independents: 2-5 seats
- PN: 1-3 seats
These numbers indicate that post-election coalition negotiations will be decisive—potentially more important than the election results themselves. The parallel to the 2020 polls is instructive: Warisan won the most seats but lost power when BN and GRS formed a post-election coalition.
The Perfect Storm: Crises Battering the Incumbent
Infrastructure Catastrophe
The mid-September 2025 crisis represents Hajiji’s single biggest vulnerability. The cascading failures paint a picture of systemic governance breakdown:
The Incident:
- Floods and landslides claimed 13 lives
- Transmission tower collapse plunged east coast into darkness
- 230,000 consumers affected
- Some districts endured 20 hours daily without electricity for 4 days
- Water treatment plants shut down
- Hospitals postponed surgeries
Political Impact: This wasn’t merely an inconvenience—it struck at basic quality of life and revealed state government incompetence. For voters, the message is clear: the current administration cannot provide fundamental services. In tropical Malaysia, prolonged power outages affect:
- Food preservation and safety
- Small businesses losing revenue
- Students unable to study
- Elderly and vulnerable populations at health risk
The water supply disruptions compound the crisis, as Sabahans experienced simultaneous loss of both critical utilities—a failure that will be visceral and unforgettable when voters enter polling stations.
The Corruption Time Bomb
The emergence of “damning video evidence” implicating multiple ministers in a mining scandal could not have come at a worse time. While details remain limited in the source material, the political damage is multifaceted:
- Reinforces “all politicians are corrupt” cynicism that benefits outsider candidates
- Undermines Hajiji’s clean governance claims
- Provides opposition with concrete attack material
- May trigger federal anti-corruption investigations, creating uncertainty
In Sabah’s resource-rich economy, mining licenses and concessions are particularly sensitive issues, often involving indigenous land rights and environmental concerns.
The Zara Qairina Tragedy: Catalyst for Broader Discontent
The August 2025 death of 13-year-old Zara Qairina Mahathir in an alleged bullying incident became a flashpoint for deeper grievances. The “rare widespread gatherings” demanding justice signal:
- Erosion of public trust in institutions to protect citizens
- Social media mobilization bypassing traditional party structures
- Youth engagement in a typically personality-driven political landscape
- Vulnerability of incumbents to non-traditional political movements
The tragedy transcends partisan politics, creating space for candidates who can authentically channel public anger at systemic failures.
“Sabah for Sabahans”: The Nationalist Challenge
The rise of state nationalism presents an existential challenge to the GRS-PH alliance. The movement’s core argument is simple but powerful: Sabah’s resources and political destiny should be controlled by Sabahans, not peninsula-based parties.
Why This Matters Now:
- Historical Grievances: Sabah joined Malaysia in 1963 under the Malaysia Agreement (MA63), which promised autonomy and equal partnership. Many Sabahans feel the federal government has broken this promise through:
- Inadequate revenue sharing (Sabah receives far less than it contributes)
- Infrastructure neglect compared to Peninsular Malaysia
- Federal control of resources like oil and gas
- Immigration policies that changed demographic composition
- PH as Lightning Rod: Anwar Ibrahim’s PH is perceived as a peninsula-centric party with limited understanding of Sabah’s distinct identity. The GRS-PH partnership makes Hajiji vulnerable to charges of being a “federal puppet.”
- Timing: This sentiment has intensified amid infrastructure failures—voters ask why a resource-rich state suffers frequent blackouts while supplying energy to the national grid.
Electoral Impact: Parties like Parti KDM and independent candidates can position themselves as “authentic Sabahan voices” against coalition partners “controlled from Kuala Lumpur.” Even PN faces this challenge, as it’s led by peninsula-based PAS and Bersatu.
National Implications: Anwar’s Mid-Term Test
Why Sabah Matters to Federal Politics
For PM Anwar Ibrahim, the Sabah election is a critical barometer less than three years into his tenure:
The August 2023 Precedent: In the last state elections, Anwar’s PH-BN coalition showed mixed results:
- Retained: Penang, Selangor, Negeri Sembilan (expected)
- Lost: Failed to flip any PN-held states (Kedah, Kelantan, Terengganu)
The failure to expand PH-BN’s footprint raised questions about Anwar’s political capital beyond his traditional strongholds.
Sabah as Proof of Concept: A strong showing in Sabah would demonstrate that Anwar can:
- Build coalitions in diverse, multi-ethnic contexts
- Overcome local grievances through federal resources
- Create templates for future state election victories
Conversely, a weak performance—especially if GRS-PH comes third or fourth—would:
- Embolden opposition within PH’s own coalition
- Raise questions about 2027 general election prospects
- Potentially trigger defections in Sabah’s federal parliamentary seats
The Cost-of-Living Albatross
Anwar faces the same challenge confronting incumbents globally: persistent inflation and cost-of-living pressures that erode political support. In Sabah specifically:
- Geographic isolation makes goods more expensive
- Infrastructure problems raise business costs passed to consumers
- Fuel subsidy rationalization disproportionately affects rural areas
- Currency fluctuations impact cross-border workers (Sabah borders Indonesia and Philippines)
When voters face economic hardship plus infrastructure failures, anti-incumbent sentiment becomes bipartisan—affecting both state and federal governments.
Singapore’s Strategic Stakes in Sabah’s Political Future
While geographically distant, developments in Sabah carry significant implications for Singapore across multiple domains:
1. Maritime Security and Border Management
The Geographic Reality: Sabah’s east coast borders the Sulu Sea, a region plagued by:
- Piracy and armed robbery
- Kidnapping-for-ransom by Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) remnants
- People smuggling networks
- Cross-border militant movements
Singapore’s Interest: As a maritime trading nation, Singapore depends on sea lanes passing through or near Sabah’s waters. Approximately 40% of global trade passes through Southeast Asian maritime chokepoints.
Political Instability Impact: A weak or unstable Sabah government could:
- Reduce effectiveness of maritime security cooperation
- Create governance vacuums exploited by criminal networks
- Disrupt ASEAN-wide security coordination mechanisms
- Affect insurance rates and shipping security protocols
Precedent: The 2013 Lahad Datu incursion, where armed Filipino militants invaded Sabah, demonstrated vulnerability to cross-border threats. A politically fragmented Sabah might struggle to respond to similar crises.
2. Economic Corridors and Investment Climate
Current Economic Integration:
Sabah represents an important component of Malaysia-Singapore economic relations:
Trade Flows:
- Sabah exports palm oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), timber, and seafood—commodities Singapore imports
- Singapore provides financial services, logistics, and technology to Sabah businesses
- Singapore companies have invested in Sabah’s plantation, property, and tourism sectors
Brunei-Indonesia-Malaysia-Philippines East ASEAN Growth Area (BIMP-EAGA): This regional cooperation framework positions Sabah as a gateway for Singapore’s engagement with eastern ASEAN. Political stability in Sabah is crucial for:
- Cross-border infrastructure projects
- Trade facilitation initiatives
- Tourism cooperation (Singapore as hub for onward travel to Sabah)
Investment Uncertainty: Political fragmentation and frequent government changes create regulatory unpredictability. Singapore investors and businesses prefer stable, predictable environments for long-term commitments. Key concerns include:
- Policy continuity: Will investment incentives survive government changes?
- Contract sanctity: Can new governments repudiate previous agreements?
- Corruption risks: Mining and land scandals increase due diligence costs
- Infrastructure reliability: Power and water disruptions affect manufacturing operations
Tourism Sector: Sabah is a significant destination for Singaporean tourists, drawn by:
- Mount Kinabalu and nature tourism
- Diving in Sipadan and Mabul islands
- Relatively accessible weekend getaway (2.5-hour flight)
Political instability could affect:
- Tourist confidence and bookings
- Flight frequencies and connectivity
- Development of tourism infrastructure
3. The Water Agreement Parallel
While Sabah is not directly involved in Singapore’s water agreements (those involve Johor), Sabah’s political dynamics offer instructive parallels:
State vs. Federal Tensions: Just as Johor state governments sometimes challenge federal water agreements with Singapore, Sabah’s state nationalism could affect:
- Federal-level commitments to regional cooperation
- Attitude toward bilateral agreements seen as favoring Singapore
- Willingness to honor inherited agreements vs. renegotiation demands
Resource Nationalism: The “Sabah for Sabahans” movement’s emphasis on state control of resources mirrors sentiments in other Malaysian states. A strongly nationalist Sabah government might:
- Inspire similar movements in Johor regarding water
- Strengthen Malaysian negotiating positions on resource-related agreements
- Influence federal government calculations about Singapore ties
Singapore’s Hedge: Singapore closely monitors Malaysian state politics precisely because state governments can complicate federal commitments. A trend toward stronger state nationalism across Malaysia would factor into Singapore’s long-term resource security planning.
4. Regional Stability and ASEAN Cohesion
Malaysia’s Role in ASEAN: As ASEAN’s stabilizing middle power, Malaysia plays a crucial bridging role between:
- Maritime and mainland Southeast Asia
- Muslim-majority and Buddhist/Christian-majority states
- Developed and developing ASEAN economies
Internal Cohesion Matters: A politically unstable Malaysia weakens ASEAN’s collective capacity to:
- Respond to South China Sea tensions
- Navigate great power competition
- Coordinate on Myanmar crisis
- Manage economic integration challenges
Sabah’s Specific ASEAN Role: Sabah participates in sub-regional cooperation including:
- Sulu-Sulawesi Marine Ecoregion conservation
- Cross-border movement management with Philippines and Indonesia
- Maritime security trilateral agreements
Political instability could disrupt these mechanisms, creating spillover effects across the broader region—including Singapore.
5. Precedent Effects on Malaysian Federal Politics
The Domino Concern: Singapore watches Malaysian state elections for indicators of federal political trends:
If GRS-PH performs poorly:
- Could trigger defections in federal parliament, destabilizing Anwar’s government
- Might embolden opposition parties nationally
- Could lead to snap federal elections earlier than scheduled 2027
- May shift Malaysia’s political center of gravity toward more Malay-nationalist positions
If fragmentation continues:
- Raises questions about Malaysia’s governance capacity
- Creates unpredictability in bilateral relations
- Complicates long-term planning for Singapore-Malaysia projects (High Speed Rail, Rapid Transit System, etc.)
Singapore’s Preference: While officially neutral, Singapore benefits from:
- Stable, predictable Malaysian governments
- Leaders focused on economic development rather than nationalist grandstanding
- Continuity in bilateral agreements and cooperative frameworks
6. The Immigration and Security Dimension
Sabah’s Demographic Complexity: Sabah has long grappled with irregular migration from Philippines and Indonesia, creating a large population of uncertain legal status. Estimates suggest hundreds of thousands of undocumented residents.
Singapore Implications:
Direct:
- Sabah serves as transit point for some irregular migration networks
- Security cooperation helps intercept potential threats before they reach Singapore
- Intelligence sharing depends on stable counterpart agencies
Indirect:
- Political instability in Sabah could trigger migration pressures
- Sabah politicians sometimes deflect from governance failures by scapegoating migrants
- This can inflame tensions with Philippines and Indonesia, creating regional instability
Historical Context: The February 2013 Lahad Datu intrusion involved armed Filipino claimants to Sabah (the Sulu Sultanate claim). While that specific threat has diminished, the underlying issues—porous borders, irregular migration, cross-border ethnic ties—remain relevant.
7. Energy Security Considerations
Sabah’s Energy Profile:
- Major natural gas producer (offshore fields)
- Supplies LNG to Asian markets including Singapore
- Part of Malaysia’s energy export infrastructure
Singapore’s Energy Mix: Singapore imports approximately 95% of its natural gas, with Malaysia being a key supplier. While specific Sabah gas doesn’t flow directly to Singapore via pipeline (that comes from Peninsular Malaysia), Sabah’s production contributes to:
- Overall Malaysian energy security and export capacity
- Regional LNG market stability
- Malaysia’s financial capacity (energy revenues support federal government)
Political Risk Factor: Energy sector investments require long time horizons. Political instability in Sabah could:
- Deter new exploration and development investments
- Affect regulatory frameworks for energy sector
- Influence Malaysia’s energy export policies
Potential Post-Election Scenarios and Singapore’s Calculus
Scenario 1: Fragmented Hung Assembly (Most Likely – 60% probability)
Outcome: No coalition wins 37+ seats; 2-3 weeks of negotiations
Configuration Options:
- GRS-PH-Star coalition: Rekindled alliance with better terms for Star
- Warisan-BN-Parti KDM: Opposition coalition with fresh faces
- Minority government: Largest bloc governs with case-by-case support
Singapore Impact: Moderate concern
- Short-term uncertainty but familiar pattern (happened in 2020)
- Business as usual once government formed
- Potential for future instability if coalition is fragile
Singapore Response:
- Monitor coalition negotiations closely
- Maintain contact with multiple potential leaders
- Avoid any appearance of favoritism
- Prepare for multiple scenarios in engagement planning
Scenario 2: GRS-PH Narrow Victory (25% probability)
Outcome: Hajiji retains power with 37-42 seats through coalition expansion
How This Happens:
- Infrastructure crisis blame defused by late-campaign federal assistance
- Corruption scandal fails to gain traction
- Incumbency advantages prove decisive
- Opposition votes split among multiple challengers
Singapore Impact: Minimal concern – Preferred outcome
- Continuity in state-federal cooperation
- Stable environment for ongoing projects
- Predictable policy environment
Singapore Response:
- Business as usual
- Deepen cooperation on mutually beneficial projects
- Strengthen people-to-people ties
Scenario 3: Opposition Coalition Victory (10% probability)
Outcome: Warisan leads coalition with BN Sabah and smaller parties
Trigger Events:
- Corruption scandal explodes in final campaign weeks
- Additional infrastructure failures
- Federal government seen as interfering too obviously
- Anti-incumbent wave proves overwhelming
Singapore Impact: Moderate concern initially, then neutral
- New government learning curve
- Possible review of existing agreements
- Initial uncertainty followed by normalization
- Warisan previously governed 2018-2020 without major issues
Singapore Response:
- Quick diplomatic outreach to new leadership
- Emphasize continuity and mutual benefit of cooperation
- Offer technical assistance if requested
- Monitor for any policy shifts
Scenario 4: Prolonged Deadlock (5% probability)
Outcome: No stable coalition forms; multiple attempts collapse; potential fresh elections
Path to This:
- Highly fractured result with 6-7 significant players
- Personality clashes prevent coalition building
- Federal intervention attempts backfire
- Constitutional crisis emerges
Singapore Impact: Significant concern
- Governance paralysis affects business confidence
- Security cooperation degraded
- Regional reputation damage
- Potential for civil unrest if prolonged
Singapore Response:
- Publicly express hope for quick resolution
- Privately encourage moderation through diplomatic channels
- Activate contingency plans for business disruption
- Strengthen monitoring of security situation
Strategic Recommendations for Singapore
1. Maintain Studied Neutrality
Rationale: Any perception of Singapore “picking sides” in Malaysian politics creates backlash and damages bilateral relations.
Implementation:
- Ensure all public statements are scrupulously neutral
- Maintain contact with all major political camps
- Avoid commercial decisions that could be interpreted as political favoritism
- Frame cooperation as Malaysia-Singapore (federal-national) rather than state-specific
2. Deepen People-to-People Ties
Rationale: Regardless of which government emerges, strong societal linkages provide ballast for bilateral relations.
Priority Areas:
- Education exchanges: Scholarships for Sabahan students in Singapore
- Tourism promotion: Market Singapore as gateway to/from Sabah
- Cultural programs: Showcase shared heritage and diversity
- Business networks: Support SME linkages and trade missions
3. Offer Technical Assistance Pragmatically
Rationale: Singapore’s expertise in infrastructure, governance, and urban planning is valuable; offering help positions Singapore as constructive partner.
Approach:
- Wait for requests rather than pushing assistance
- Focus on non-political technical issues (water management, energy, urban planning)
- Ensure programs benefit Sabahans visibly
- Avoid any paternalistic messaging
4. Strengthen Multilateral Frameworks
Rationale: ASEAN, BIMP-EAGA, and other regional mechanisms provide forums for cooperation that transcend bilateral political volatility.
Priorities:
- Reinvigorate BIMP-EAGA through Singapore’s private sector strengths
- Support maritime security cooperation (Trilateral Maritime Patrol)
- Promote economic integration initiatives
- Use ASEAN platforms for confidence-building
5. Enhance Strategic Foresight Capabilities
Rationale: Malaysian state politics are increasingly unpredictable; Singapore needs better early warning systems.
Investments:
- Deeper research on Malaysian state-level political dynamics
- Enhanced network of contacts across political spectrum
- Scenario planning for various Malaysian political futures
- Integration of political risk into economic planning
6. Diversify Risk Where Possible
Rationale: Overreliance on any single relationship or route creates vulnerability.
Applications:
- Energy: Continue diversification of gas suppliers and development of alternatives
- Trade routes: Maintain multiple logistics pathways
- Economic partnerships: Broaden ASEAN engagement beyond Malaysia
- Water security: Accelerate NEWater expansion and desalination
Important Caveat: This is not about reducing Malaysia cooperation but ensuring Singapore has options if circumstances require.
Conclusion: Reading the Tea Leaves
The Sabah state election represents far more than a local political contest. It encapsulates the complex interplay of ethnicity, geography, personality, and nationalism that defines Malaysian politics in the 2020s. The unprecedented fragmentation—with seven major forces competing—reflects deeper trends: declining partisan loyalty, rising identity politics, and growing skepticism toward traditional power structures.
For Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Sabah is a critical test of whether his “big tent” coalition-building approach can succeed beyond Peninsular Malaysia’s established battlegrounds. A strong performance would vindicate his strategy of inclusive governance; a weak showing would raise fundamental questions about his political durability ahead of federal elections in 2027.
For Singapore, the election serves as a reminder that regional stability cannot be taken for granted. Sabah’s challenges—infrastructure deficits, corruption, identity politics, maritime security threats—are shared across Southeast Asia. How Sabah navigates its political transition will offer lessons for the broader region’s democratic resilience.
The most likely outcome—a fragmented result requiring protracted coalition negotiations—means that the real political drama will unfold after election day, not on it. In this environment, Singapore’s best strategy is patient engagement, principled neutrality, and pragmatic cooperation with whatever government ultimately emerges.
What is certain is that Malaysia’s “Land Below the Wind” will remain politically turbulent. The question is whether this turbulence produces creative adaptation or chronic instability. For Singapore, preparing for both possibilities is not pessimism—it is prudent statecraft in an uncertain regional landscape.