The October 21, 2025 warning by UN human rights experts regarding US military actions against Venezuela represents a critical juncture in international law enforcement and sovereignty principles. This development carries significant implications for Singapore’s foreign policy stance, regional security cooperation, and adherence to international legal frameworks.

Background: The US Campaign Against Venezuela

Since September 2025, the United States has conducted a military campaign ostensibly aimed at disrupting drug trafficking routes from Latin America. At least six vessels have been destroyed in Caribbean waters, resulting in a minimum of 27 fatalities. President Donald Trump has framed this operation as essential to national security, though no substantive evidence has been provided to confirm the victims were drug smugglers.

The campaign reportedly includes:

• Maritime strikes on speedboats in international waters
• CIA covert operations authorized directly by President Trump
• Threats of further military escalation, including potential land-based strikes

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has characterized these actions as a plot to overthrow his government, echoing historical patterns of US intervention in Latin America.

Legal Framework: International Law Violations

1. Violation of Sovereignty and UN Charter

The UN experts’ warning centers on several fundamental breaches of international law:

Article 2(4) of the UN Charter explicitly prohibits the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state. The US actions appear to violate this principle through:

• Direct military strikes without Security Council authorization
• Covert operations designed to destabilize a sovereign government
• Threats of further military escalation

The Principle of Non-Intervention, a cornerstone of international relations, prohibits states from interfering in the internal affairs of other nations. The CIA operations and broader military campaign constitute clear interventionist actions.

2. Extrajudicial Executions

The UN experts identified a particularly grave concern: the use of lethal force without due process. Even if those killed were drug smugglers, international law requires:

• Legal proceedings and evidence
• Proportionate responses
• Respect for human rights, including the right to life

The strikes in international waters, without judicial oversight or verification of targets’ identities, constitute extrajudicial executions under international human rights law.

3. Misapplication of Self-Defense Doctrine

The Trump administration’s justification for these actions appears to invoke national security concerns related to drug trafficking. However, UN experts emphasized that:

• Groups like Tren de Aragua are not engaged in armed attacks against the United States
• Drug trafficking, while serious, does not constitute an armed attack triggering Article 51 self-defense rights
• The threat must be imminent and the response proportionate

The current operations exceed any reasonable interpretation of self-defense under international law.

4. Violations of International Law of the Sea

Operations in international waters require adherence to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The US actions raise questions about:

• Jurisdiction over vessels in international waters
• Right of innocent passage
• Proper legal procedures for interdiction

Historical Context: Interventionism in Latin America

The UN experts’ reference to “the long history of external interventions in Latin America” is particularly significant. The region has experienced numerous US interventions, including:

• CIA-backed coups in Guatemala (1954), Chile (1973), and Nicaragua (1980s)
• The Panama invasion (1989)
• Multiple interventions in Cuba and attempts to overthrow Fidel Castro
• Support for various military dictatorships during the Cold War

This history creates legitimate concerns about sovereignty violations and the precedent being set. The current actions risk normalizing extraterritorial military operations under the guise of counter-narcotics efforts.

Implications for Singapore

1. Principles of Sovereignty and International Law

Singapore’s foreign policy has consistently emphasized:

• Strict adherence to international law
• Respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity
• Opposition to unilateral use of force
• Support for multilateral approaches to global challenges

The US actions in Venezuela directly challenge these principles. Singapore’s response will signal its commitment to these foundational tenets, especially as a small state that depends on the rules-based international order for its security.

Potential Policy Considerations:

• Whether to issue public statements supporting UN experts’ findings
• How to balance relations with the US while maintaining principle-centered positions
• Singapore’s role in ASEAN and UN forums addressing this issue

2. Regional Security Precedents

Singapore operates in a region where sovereignty concerns are paramount. The Venezuela situation creates dangerous precedents:

Extraterritorial Operations: If major powers can conduct military operations in international waters or within other nations’ territories based on unilateral security assessments, what prevents similar actions in the South China Sea, Malacca Straits, or elsewhere in Southeast Asia?

Counter-Terrorism Justifications: The designation of Tren de Aragua as a “terrorist organization” as justification for military action could be replicated with groups in Southeast Asia, potentially affecting regional stability.

Erosion of International Norms: Acceptance of these actions weakens the legal frameworks that protect smaller nations like Singapore from more powerful states’ unilateral actions.

3. Maritime Security Concerns

Singapore’s economy depends heavily on maritime trade and secure sea lanes. The US operations raise critical questions:

• What standards govern the use of force in international waters?
• How can commercial shipping be protected if major powers conduct unilateral military operations?
• What mechanisms exist to verify targets and prevent civilian casualties?

The lack of transparency in US operations—including failure to provide evidence about victims’ identities—is particularly concerning for a trading nation dependent on predictable, law-governed maritime routes.

4. Drug Trafficking and Regional Cooperation

Singapore maintains strict anti-drug policies and collaborates internationally on counter-narcotics efforts. However, Singapore’s approach emphasizes:

Multilateral Cooperation: Working through INTERPOL, ASEAN mechanisms, and bilateral law enforcement agreements rather than unilateral military action.

Legal Frameworks: Using extradition treaties, mutual legal assistance, and judicial processes rather than extrajudicial violence.

Intelligence Sharing: Collaborative intelligence efforts within established legal parameters.

The US approach undermines these cooperative frameworks by suggesting that unilateral military force is an acceptable counter-narcotics tool.

5. US-Singapore Relations

Singapore maintains strong defense and economic ties with the United States, including:

• The 1990 Memorandum of Understanding allowing US military access to Singapore facilities
• The US-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
• Extensive security cooperation and intelligence sharing
• Regular military exercises and training

The Venezuela situation creates tension between these practical relationships and Singapore’s principled stance on international law. Singapore must navigate:

• Maintaining defense cooperation while expressing concerns about international law violations
• Supporting the rules-based order without appearing to directly criticize a key security partner
• Finding appropriate forums and language to express positions

6. ASEAN Centrality and Multilateralism

Singapore has championed ASEAN centrality and multilateral approaches to regional challenges. The Venezuela situation reinforces why these mechanisms matter:

Preventing Unilateralism: Strong regional organizations can constrain unilateral actions by major powers.

Collective Voice: Small states gain influence through collective action and unified positions.

Alternative Frameworks: Multilateral institutions provide alternatives to power-based international relations.

Singapore may leverage this situation to strengthen arguments for ASEAN unity and multilateral approaches to security challenges, particularly relevant given great power competition in Southeast Asia.

Broader International Implications

Weakening of the UN System

The US actions, if left unchallenged, further weaken the UN’s authority to maintain international peace and security. This affects:

• The credibility of UN Charter principles
• The Security Council’s role as the sole authorizer of force
• International human rights mechanisms

Precedent for Other Powers

If the US can conduct extraterritorial operations without consequences, other major powers may feel empowered to do likewise:

• Russia in its “near abroad”
• China in disputed maritime areas
• Regional powers in their spheres of influence

This risks a return to might-makes-right international relations, particularly dangerous for small states.

Impact on Counter-Terrorism Cooperation

The conflation of drug trafficking with terrorism, and the use of “terrorist” designations to justify military action, may complicate legitimate counter-terrorism cooperation by:

• Reducing trust in intelligence sharing
• Creating concerns about how shared information might be used
• Undermining legal frameworks for extradition and prosecution

Singapore’s Strategic Options

1. Principled Statements

Singapore could make clear statements through appropriate forums:

• Support for UN experts’ findings
• Reaffirmation of sovereignty principles
• Emphasis on multilateral approaches to transnational crime

2. Quiet Diplomacy

Alternatively, Singapore might pursue private diplomatic channels:

• Discussions with US counterparts about concerns
• Coordination with like-minded states
• Supporting stronger international legal frameworks without public criticism

3. Multilateral Leadership

Singapore could take leadership roles in:

• ASEAN discussions on sovereignty principles
• UN forums addressing the use of force
• International maritime security dialogues

4. Capacity Building

Supporting regional capacity for:

• Legal counter-narcotics cooperation
• Maritime law enforcement
• Alternative models to military intervention

Economic Considerations

Trade Relationships

Singapore must consider economic impacts:

• US is a major trading partner and investor
• Venezuela’s economy is already largely isolated
• Regional stability in the Caribbean affects global supply chains

Financial Sector Implications

Singapore’s financial center could face:

• Questions about facilitating transactions related to Venezuela
• Pressure regarding sanctions compliance
• Concerns about drug money laundering

Recommendations for Singapore’s Approach

Short-term (Immediate Response)

1. Monitor Developments: Track international responses and potential escalation
2. Internal Assessment: Evaluate implications for Singapore’s interests and principles
3. Stakeholder Consultation: Engage relevant government agencies, think tanks, and international partners
4. Calibrated Response: Issue measured statements supporting international law without unnecessary provocation

Medium-term (3-6 months)

1. ASEAN Coordination: Work with regional partners on unified positions regarding sovereignty and use of force
2. UN Engagement: Support mechanisms for accountability and investigation
3. Bilateral Dialogue: Engage US counterparts on concerns while maintaining cooperative relationships
4. Legal Framework Development: Support strengthening international legal mechanisms

Long-term (Strategic Positioning)

1. Rules-Based Order Advocacy: Increase Singapore’s profile as defender of international law
2. Multilateral Institution Strengthening: Invest in UN, ASEAN, and other forums that constrain unilateralism
3. Regional Capacity Building: Help develop Southeast Asian capabilities for addressing transnational crime through legal means
4. Thought Leadership: Position Singapore as a voice for small states’ interests in evolving international security architecture

Conclusion

The UN experts’ warning about US actions in Venezuela represents more than a regional dispute—it challenges fundamental principles of the international legal order upon which Singapore’s security and prosperity depend. The situation requires careful navigation between practical relationships and principled positions.

For Singapore, the key considerations are:

1. Principle Over Expediency: Defending international law serves Singapore’s long-term interests, even when inconvenient in the short term
2. Consistency Matters: Singapore’s credibility depends on consistent application of principles across different situations and partners
3. Small State Vulnerability: Accepting major powers’ unilateral actions sets precedents that could directly threaten Singapore’s sovereignty
4. Multilateral Solutions: The Venezuela situation reinforces why Singapore must champion multilateral institutions and collective approaches

The path forward requires diplomatic skill, principled leadership, and recognition that Singapore’s security ultimately depends on a world governed by law, not by power alone. The response to US actions in Venezuela will test Singapore’s commitment to these principles and shape perceptions of its role in defending the international order.

As Prime Minister Lawrence Wong emphasized in various contexts, Singapore must be clear-eyed about its interests while upholding values that have ensured its survival and success. The Venezuela situation demands precisely this balance—maintaining vital relationships while defending the rules-based order that protects all nations, especially small ones, from the arbitrary exercise of power.

Scenario Analysis: Singapore’s Strategic Choices

To understand the complexity of Singapore’s position, we examine five plausible scenarios, each with distinct approaches, risks, and outcomes.

Scenario 1: Silent Acquiescence

Description: Singapore remains silent on the Venezuela issue, neither endorsing nor criticizing US actions. This approach prioritizes the US-Singapore relationship above public principled positions.

Implementation:

• No public statements from Ministry of Foreign Affairs
• Abstention or absence from UN votes on the matter
• Private expressions of concern through diplomatic channels only
• Business-as-usual approach to bilateral relations

Advantages:

• Preserves US-Singapore defense and economic ties without friction
• Avoids direct confrontation with a major security partner
• Maintains flexibility to adjust position as situation evolves
• Prevents Singapore from becoming a target of US displeasure

Disadvantages:

• Severe credibility damage: Undermines decades of advocacy for international law and sovereignty
• Regional perception: ASEAN partners may view Singapore as subordinating principles to great power interests
• Precedent setting: Silence suggests acceptance, potentially inviting similar actions in Southeast Asia
• Long-term security risk: Weakens the rules-based order Singapore depends upon
• Domestic questions: Civil society and legal community may challenge government’s principle abandonment

Likelihood of Success: Low (25%)

This approach fundamentally contradicts Singapore’s historical positioning and would create lasting damage to its reputation as a principled advocate for small states. The short-term preservation of US relations would come at the cost of long-term strategic positioning.

Critical Turning Point: If China or another power subsequently conducts similar operations in the South China Sea, Singapore’s previous silence would severely constrain its ability to protest, potentially threatening its own security interests directly.

Scenario 2: Vocal Opposition

Description: Singapore takes a strong public stand against US actions, issuing formal statements, supporting UN resolutions, and aligning with international law advocates.

Implementation:

• Foreign Minister issues statement supporting UN experts’ findings
• Singapore votes in favor of UN resolutions condemning the actions
• Public speeches at international forums highlighting sovereignty principles
• Coordination with like-minded states for collective response

Advantages:

• Principle consistency: Reinforces Singapore’s credibility as international law defender
• Regional leadership: Positions Singapore as champion of small states’ interests
• Legal precedent: Helps establish norms against unilateral military action
• Domestic legitimacy: Aligns with Singapore’s legal community and civil society values
• Future protection: Strengthens Singapore’s moral authority to protest if threatened

Disadvantages:

• US relationship strain: Risk of reduced defense cooperation, intelligence sharing, or economic pressure
• Regional exposure: Could reduce US security presence that benefits Singapore
• Limited effectiveness: Unlikely to change US behavior while incurring costs
• Isolation risk: If few other US partners join, Singapore appears outlier
• Economic vulnerability: Potential trade or investment consequences

Likelihood of Success: Low-Medium (35%)

While principled, this approach risks isolating Singapore from its primary security partner without sufficient power to influence US behavior. The costs may outweigh the benefits unless part of a broad coalition.

Critical Turning Point: Success depends heavily on whether other US allies (Japan, South Korea, Australia, European partners) join in criticism. If Singapore stands alone or with only non-aligned states, the strategic cost increases dramatically.

Scenario 3: Calibrated Principled Response (Most Likely)

Description: Singapore makes clear but measured statements supporting international law principles without directly attacking the US, while pursuing multilateral mechanisms and private diplomacy.

Implementation:

• Public dimension:
  • MFA statement reaffirming Singapore’s commitment to UN Charter principles
  • Speech at UN emphasizing sovereignty and international law without naming the US
  • Support for independent UN investigation mechanisms
  • Academic and think tank engagement on international law issues
• Private dimension:
  • Direct diplomatic communication with US counterparts expressing concerns
  • Explanation that Singapore’s position stems from principle, not hostility
  • Emphasis on shared interests in stable international order
  • Offers to support alternative approaches to drug trafficking
• Multilateral dimension:
  • Work through ASEAN to develop collective position
  • Engage like-minded middle powers (Norway, Switzerland, New Zealand, Canada)
  • Support strengthening of international legal frameworks
  • Participate in UN Human Rights Council discussions

Advantages:

• Balances principle and pragmatism: Maintains credibility while preserving relationships
• Reduces bilateral friction: Avoids direct US criticism while making position clear
• Coalition building: Creates space for other concerned states to join
• Flexibility: Allows escalation or de-escalation based on developments
• Domestic and international credibility: Satisfies both principle and practical concerns

Disadvantages:

• Risk of appearing weak: May not satisfy those demanding stronger stance
• Limited immediate impact: Gradual approach may not prevent further violations
• Requires careful calibration: Easy to err toward either excessive caution or confrontation
• Time-intensive: Demands sustained diplomatic effort across multiple fronts

Likelihood of Success: Medium-High (60%)

This balanced approach aligns with Singapore’s historical diplomatic practice and offers the best prospect of defending principles while maintaining vital relationships. It recognizes that Singapore’s influence comes through moral authority and coalition-building rather than confrontation.

Implementation Timeline:

• Week 1-2: Internal coordination and quiet diplomatic outreach
• Week 3-4: Calibrated public statement and ASEAN consultation
• Month 2-3: Multilateral engagement and sustained messaging
• Ongoing: Private dialogue with US while maintaining public principle

Success Indicators:

• US acknowledges Singapore’s concerns without relationship damage
• Other US partners adopt similar positions, creating coalition
• International legal mechanisms strengthened
• Singapore’s credibility enhanced regionally and globally

Scenario 4: Strategic Ambiguity with ASEAN Leadership

Description: Singapore avoids individual positioning but works to build ASEAN consensus, allowing collective response while reducing individual nation exposure.

Implementation:

• Singapore refrains from individual statements
• Proposes ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ meeting to discuss sovereignty principles
• Works behind scenes to craft consensus ASEAN position
• ASEAN issues statement on sovereignty and international law
• Individual nations can point to collective position

Advantages:

• Risk distribution: Shared among 10 nations rather than Singapore alone
• Greater impact: ASEAN carries more weight than individual state
• Cover for action: Collective approach provides political cover
• Regional cohesion: Strengthens ASEAN unity and relevance
• Precedent for future: Establishes ASEAN response mechanism

Disadvantages:

• ASEAN divisions: Difficult to achieve consensus given varied US relationships
• Delayed response: Consensus-building takes time
• Dilution risk: Final statement may be too weak to be meaningful
• Free rider problem: Singapore does diplomatic work while others benefit
• Reduced Singapore visibility: Leadership role less apparent

Likelihood of Success: Medium (45%)

ASEAN’s diversity makes consensus difficult, but the sovereignty principle resonates across the region. Success requires skillful diplomacy and willingness to accept a position potentially weaker than Singapore’s ideal.

ASEAN Internal Dynamics:

• Likely supporters: Indonesia (sovereignty principle), Malaysia (non-aligned tradition), Brunei (small state concerns)
• Likely resisters: Philippines (strong US ties), Thailand (military cooperation), Vietnam (complex position)
• Fence-sitters: Cambodia, Laos (China-leaning but vary on US relations), Myanmar (internal focus)

Optimal ASEAN Statement Elements:

• Reaffirms ASEAN commitment to UN Charter principles
• Emphasizes sovereignty and non-interference
• Calls for multilateral approaches to transnational challenges
• Avoids naming specific countries but principles are clear

Scenario 5: Strategic Differentiation (Sophisticated Approach)

Description: Singapore develops a differentiated response across multiple tracks—taking strong positions in some forums while maintaining cooperation in others, demonstrating that principle and partnership can coexist.

Implementation:

Track 1 – Legal/Multilateral Forums (Strong principle):

• Attorney-General’s Chambers issues legal analysis of international law concerns
• Singapore supports UN Human Rights Council mechanisms
• Academic institutions host conferences on sovereignty and use of force
• Singapore judges and lawyers speak at international law conferences

Track 2 – Political/Diplomatic Forums (Measured):

• MFA makes general statements on sovereignty principles
• Support for dialogue and peaceful dispute resolution
• Offers Singapore as venue for multilateral discussions

Track 3 – Security/Defense Relations (Cooperative):

• Continue military exercises and defense cooperation with US
• Maintain intelligence sharing on legitimate threats
• Emphasize shared interests in regional stability
• Propose joint initiatives on legal counter-narcotics cooperation

Track 4 – Economic Relations (Normal):

• Business-as-usual on trade and investment
• Continue promoting bilateral economic ties
• Avoid conflating legal concerns with economic relationship

Advantages:

• Sophisticated signaling: Demonstrates principle without hostility
• Relationship preservation: Maintains cooperation where possible
• Issue separation: Prevents one disagreement from poisoning entire relationship
• Credibility maintenance: Shows principles matter across all forums
• Model for others: Demonstrates how to balance principle and partnership

Disadvantages:

• Complexity: Requires careful coordination across government agencies
• Mixed signals risk: Could be misinterpreted as inconsistency
• Resource intensive: Demands sustained effort across multiple tracks
• Vulnerability to disruption: Any track’s failure could affect others

Likelihood of Success: Medium-High (55%)

This sophisticated approach reflects mature diplomacy and recognizes that international relations operate on multiple levels simultaneously. It requires the most skill but offers the best prospect of achieving multiple objectives.

Key Success Factors:

• Clear internal government coordination
• Consistent messaging within each track
• Private explanations to US counterparts of approach
• Public communications explaining differentiated strategy

Scenario Comparison Matrix

Scenario Comparison Matrix
Scenario	Principle Integrity	US Relations	Regional Leadership	Long-term Security	Implementation Difficulty	Overall Score
Silent Acquiescence	Very Low	High	Very Low	Low	Easy	45933
Vocal Opposition	Very High	Low	Medium	Medium	Medium	45935
Calibrated Response	High	Medium-High	High	High	Medium	45938
ASEAN Leadership	Medium-High	Medium-High	High	Medium-High	High	45937
Strategic Differentiation	High	High	Medium-High	High	Very High	8.5/1

Recommended Hybrid Approach

The optimal strategy combines elements of Scenarios 3, 4, and 5:

Phase 1 (Immediate – Weeks 1-4):

• Implement Scenario 3’s calibrated response with clear but measured statement
• Begin private diplomatic engagement with US
• Initiate internal government coordination for differentiated approach

Phase 2 (Short-term – Months 2-3):

• Activate Scenario 4’s ASEAN dimension
• Develop Scenario 5’s track differentiation
• Maintain sustained messaging on principles

Phase 3 (Medium-term – Months 4-12):

• Full implementation of differentiated track approach
• Coalition building with like-minded states
• Institutionalize lessons learned for future similar situations

Phase 4 (Long-term – Years 1-3):

• Strengthen multilateral frameworks based on this experience
• Enhance Singapore’s profile as principled small state leader
• Develop comprehensive doctrine for managing great power disagreements

Critical Decision Points

Singapore’s leadership will face several critical decision points:

Decision Point 1: Initial Response Timing

When: Within 48-72 hours of UN experts’ statement Question: Does Singapore issue immediate statement or wait for more information? Recommended: Brief holding statement acknowledging report, followed by substantive position within one week after internal coordination

Decision Point 2: UN Vote (if occurs)

When: If UN Human Rights Council or General Assembly holds vote Question: How does Singapore vote—in favor, against, abstention, absence? Recommended: Vote in favor of resolutions supporting international law principles, with explanation of vote clarifying position

Decision Point 3: US Private Response

When: After initial US reaction to Singapore’s position Question: If US expresses displeasure, does Singapore modify position? Recommended: Maintain principle while offering increased private dialogue and explanation

Decision Point 4: Escalation

When: If US conducts land-based strikes or expands operations Question: Does Singapore strengthen position or maintain existing stance? Recommended: Escalate messaging proportionally while maintaining differentiated track approach

Decision Point 5: De-escalation

When: If US halts operations or seeks diplomatic resolution Question: How does Singapore respond to policy shift? Recommended: Welcome change while supporting accountability mechanisms

Stakeholder Management

Each scenario requires managing different stakeholder groups:

Domestic Stakeholders

Legal Community:

• Expects principled position consistent with international law
• Strong voice in Singapore’s law-based society
• Management: Engage through forums, acknowledge expertise, demonstrate legal reasoning

Civil Society:

• Increasingly vocal on foreign policy issues
• Values principled stands
• Management: Transparency about decision-making process, public education on complexities

Business Community:

• Prioritizes economic stability and US relations
• Concerned about trade impacts
• Management: Assurance of economic relationship continuity, separation of tracks

General Public:

• Diverse views but generally trusts government judgment
• Values Singapore’s international reputation
• Management: Clear communication of interests and values balance

International Stakeholders

United States:

• Key security and economic partner
• Sensitive to criticism from allies
• Management: Private diplomacy emphasizing shared interests, differentiated approach demonstration

ASEAN Partners:

• Varied positions but share sovereignty concerns
• Look to Singapore for leadership
• Management: Coalition building, inclusive approach, respect for diversity

China and Regional Powers:

• Watching Singapore’s response for precedent implications
• May seek to exploit US-Singapore differences
• Management: Maintain independence, avoid appearance of choosing sides

International Community:

• Small states, international lawyers, human rights advocates watching
• Singapore’s response affects global perceptions
• Management: Consistent messaging, multilateral engagement, thought leadership

Risk Mitigation Strategies

Economic Risks

• Diversification: Continue strengthening ties with multiple partners
• Communication: Clear business community engagement on relationship continuity
• Monitoring: Track any economic pressure indicators
• Contingency: Prepare alternative market access if needed

Security Risks

• Multiple partnerships: Maintain diverse security relationships beyond US
• Capability building: Continue indigenous defense capability development
• Regional cooperation: Strengthen ASEAN security mechanisms
• Transparency: Ensure US understands Singapore’s security needs

Diplomatic Risks

• Relationship banking: Strengthen ties with wavering partners before needing support
• Clear communication: Prevent misunderstanding through proactive dialogue
• Coalition preparation: Identify potential allies before crisis escalates
• Exit strategies: Maintain flexibility to adjust position if needed

Measuring Success

Success metrics for Singapore’s response across timeframes:

Immediate (0-3 months):

• No significant deterioration in US-Singapore relations
• Clear public understanding of Singapore’s position
• Positive international response to Singapore’s stance
• Successful private dialogue initiation with US

Short-term (3-12 months):

• Coalition of concerned states emerges
• Singapore’s regional leadership enhanced
• Multilateral mechanisms strengthened
• US-Singapore cooperation continues in key areas

Medium-term (1-3 years):

• Precedent established against similar future actions
• Singapore’s credibility as principled actor reinforced
• No similar incidents in Southeast Asia
• Stronger international legal frameworks in place

Long-term (3-5 years):

• Rules-based order demonstrably stronger
• Singapore’s model for managing disagreements adopted by others
• US-Singapore relationship matured to accept principled differences
• Enhanced protection for small states globally

Conclusion: The Art of Diplomatic Balance

The Venezuela situation presents Singapore with a defining test of its diplomatic maturity and strategic sophistication. The recommended hybrid approach—combining calibrated principled response, ASEAN leadership, and strategic differentiation—offers the best prospect for:

1. Defending principles that ensure Singapore’s long-term security
2. Preserving relationships essential for immediate prosperity
3. Demonstrating leadership that enhances regional and global standing
4. Setting precedents that protect small states everywhere

Singapore’s response will be studied by international relations scholars, emulated by similarly positioned states, and remembered as either a moment of principle or pragmatic compromise. The stakes extend far beyond US-Venezuela relations to the fundamental question of whether small states can maintain independence and principle in a world of great power competition.

The path forward is neither simple acquiescence nor confrontational opposition, but rather the sophisticated diplomatic balance that has characterized Singapore’s success since independence. This situation demands the very best of Singapore’s diplomatic tradition—clear-eyed about interests, unflinching on principles, skilled in execution, and wise in judgment.

As Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan has often emphasized, Singapore must be able to work with all major powers while maintaining its independence and principles. The Venezuela situation tests precisely this capability. Success requires recognizing that principle and partnership, when properly balanced, reinforce rather than contradict each other—that defending the rules-based order serves both Singapore’s values and its interests, and that the credibility to maintain vital relationships depends on the integrity to defend vital principles.

The Weight of Small Nations: A Singapore Story

Part One: The Call

The phone rang at 3:47 AM.

Ambassador Sarah Tan reached for it instinctively, her years of diplomatic service having trained her to wake fully alert. The glowing screen showed “MFA Singapore” – the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

“Sarah here.”

“Ambassador Tan, this is the Situation Room. We need you at the Ministry within the hour. The Permanent Secretary wants a full brief on the Venezuela situation before the ministerial meeting at seven.”

Sarah sat up, already running through implications in her mind. She’d been following the UN experts’ warning about US operations in the Caribbean, but it was now 3 AM in Singapore, which meant someone had decided this required immediate, high-level attention.

“I’m on my way.”

Forty minutes later, she walked into the Ministry’s Situation Room on the sixth floor, where a small team had already assembled. Deputy Secretary Ahmad Rahman looked up from a spread of cables and briefing papers.

“Sarah, good. You’ve seen the UN experts’ statement?”

“I have. Twenty-seven dead in six incidents, no evidence provided, extrajudicial executions in international waters.” She poured herself coffee from the perpetually full pot. “The Americans are claiming counter-narcotics operations.”

“The Americans,” Ahmad said carefully, “are claiming a lot of things. But what they’re actually doing is conducting military strikes in another hemisphere without legal authorization, calling it self-defense when there’s no armed attack, and setting precedents that could come back to haunt us.”

Sarah understood immediately. Ahmad wasn’t just talking about Venezuela.

“The South China Sea,” she said quietly.

“Among other things.” Ahmad pushed a file across the table. “The Minister wants options. Real options, not diplomatic theater. We’re briefing him at six-thirty, which gives us two hours to figure out how Singapore navigates between defending international law and maintaining relations with our primary security partner.”

Sarah opened the file. Inside were competing position papers from different ministries – Defense wanted minimal friction with Washington, Trade wanted certainty for business, and the Attorney-General’s Chambers had provided a stark legal analysis concluding the US actions violated multiple international law principles.

“We can’t stay silent,” she said, scanning the legal opinion. “Our entire foreign policy is built on defending sovereignty and the rules-based order. If we say nothing when the US violates these principles, what credibility do we have when—”

“When China does something similar?” Ahmad finished. “I know. But we also can’t afford to alienate Washington when we depend on them for security cooperation. The Seventh Fleet, our military exercises, intelligence sharing—all of it matters.”

Sarah looked up at the city lights visible through the window. Singapore – all 734 square kilometers of it – was visible from this height. A tiny red dot on the map, as Lee Kuan Yew had called it. A country that existed only because the world agreed that sovereignty mattered, that international law protected the small from the powerful.

“There has to be a way,” she said, “to defend our principles without destroying our partnerships.”

Ahmad smiled slightly. “That’s what the next two hours are for.”

Part Two: The Briefing

Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan arrived at 6:25 AM, early as always. He settled into his chair at the head of the table, accepted tea from his aide, and looked at the assembled team.

“Tell me what we know, then tell me what we can do.”

Sarah presented the situation clearly: US military operations in the Caribbean, UN experts’ condemnation, at least twenty-seven dead without due process, and most critically, the legal precedents being set.

“The implications for us?” the Minister asked.

“Direct and serious,” Ahmad responded. “If major powers can conduct military operations based on unilateral threat assessments, without evidence, in international waters, the entire framework we depend on for security collapses. Today it’s counter-narcotics in the Caribbean. Tomorrow it could be counter-terrorism in the Malacca Straits. Next week, it’s defending fishing rights in the South China Sea.”

The Minister nodded slowly. “Options?”

Sarah presented five scenarios, from silent acquiescence to vocal opposition. She saw the Minister’s expression tighten at the extremes.

“Neither silence nor confrontation serves Singapore’s interests,” he said. It wasn’t a question. “We’re not large enough to change American behavior through criticism, but we’re too important to the rules-based order to stay silent. Next option.”

“A calibrated response,” Sarah continued. “Public statements reaffirming our commitment to international law and sovereignty principles, without naming the US specifically. Private diplomatic communication explaining our position. Working through ASEAN for a collective statement. Supporting UN mechanisms for investigation.”

“That’s three different things,” the Minister observed.

“It’s a differentiated strategy, Minister,” Ahmad interjected. “We can take different positions in different forums. Strong on legal principles in multilateral settings, measured in political statements, continuing cooperation on security matters. We show that we can disagree on specific actions while maintaining overall partnership.”

The Minister was quiet for a moment, fingers steepled. “The Americans won’t like it.”

“No,” Sarah agreed. “But they’ll understand it. We’re not calling them aggressors or demanding sanctions. We’re simply stating what we’ve always stated – that sovereignty matters, that international law matters, that we all benefit from a rules-based order.”

“And if they pressure us?”

“Then we explain that our credibility – which makes us a valuable partner – depends on our consistency. That we can’t defend international law selectively. That protecting these principles actually serves American long-term interests too.”

The Minister looked at his watch. “I have cabinet ministers waiting in twenty minutes, several of whom will argue for staying silent to preserve US relations. Give me one reason why principle matters more than pragmatism here.”

Sarah took a breath. “Because Singapore is only fifty-eight years old, Minister. We exist because the world accepted that small nations have rights, that sovereignty isn’t determined by military power, that international law protects everyone. If we abandon those principles when it’s convenient, we lose the only real security we have. We become just another small country hoping that bigger countries will be kind to us. We lose what makes us Singapore.”

The Minister stood. “Draft the statement. Run it by Defense and Trade for concerns, but make it clear. We’ll release it this afternoon after I brief the Prime Minister. And Sarah—”

“Yes, Minister?”

“Make sure the Americans hear it from us first. I want our ambassador in Washington to deliver our position personally before we go public. We disagree with respect, not with ambush.”

Part Three: The Conversation

Two days later, Singapore’s statement had been released: a carefully worded affirmation of sovereignty principles, support for the UN experts’ call for investigation, and emphasis on multilateral approaches to transnational challenges. The US wasn’t named, but the implications were clear.

Sarah found herself on a secure video call with Mark Peterson, the State Department’s Deputy Assistant Secretary for Southeast Asian Affairs. They’d known each other for fifteen years, through various postings and crises.

“Sarah,” Mark said, his face pixelated slightly on the screen. “We’re disappointed.”

“I know, Mark. But surely you understand our position.”

“I understand that when we’re fighting drug traffickers who kill American citizens, we expect our partners to support us, not issue statements that sound like we’re the problem.”

Sarah chose her words carefully. “Mark, the statement doesn’t mention the United States. It reaffirms principles that Singapore has consistently supported for decades. Surely America also supports sovereignty, international law, and multilateral cooperation?”

“Of course we do. But there’s a time and place—”

“Is there?” Sarah interrupted gently. “Because from where we sit, if we only support international law when it’s convenient, when it doesn’t affect our important relationships, then we don’t actually support it at all. We’re just paying lip service.”

Mark was quiet for a moment. “You know we provide significant security cooperation to Singapore.”

“We do know. And we’re deeply grateful for it. That partnership continues unchanged. We’re conducting joint naval exercises next month. We’re expanding intelligence sharing on terrorism. The security relationship isn’t in question.”

“Then why make this statement?”

“Because,” Sarah said, “we need you to understand something fundamental about Singapore. We’re a small country. We don’t have natural resources, we don’t have military power, we don’t have a large population. What we have is the rule of law. The principle that countries can’t just do whatever they want to smaller countries. That sovereignty matters. That international law protects everyone.”

She leaned forward slightly. “If we stay silent when those principles are violated – even by a friend, even by a partner – we undermine the only security we actually have. And ironically, Mark, that makes us a less valuable partner to you, because our word means less, our consistency means less.”

“Pretty speech,” Mark said, but without much heat. “But you’re still complicating things for us.”

“We’re trying to do the right thing, which admittedly is rarely simple. Look, Mark, between us – we know there are drug trafficking issues. We know transnational crime is a threat. Singapore has some of the strictest anti-drug laws in the world. We’re not soft on this. But there are legal ways to address it. Extradition treaties. Law enforcement cooperation. Intelligence sharing. We do all of that, including with you.”

“Those take time. People die while we’re filling out paperwork.”

“And people die when major powers decide they can use military force without legal basis,” Sarah countered. “More importantly, the international order that’s prevented major wars for decades starts to crack. That’s not in America’s interests either, Mark. You benefit from the rules-based system too.”

Peterson sighed. “I’ll pass your views up the chain. But Sarah, between friends – you’re making it harder for people in Washington who support the partnership.”

“I understand. And we’ll keep working to show that we can be principled partners. That the two aren’t mutually exclusive. But we can’t be partners who only agree with you. We have to be partners who sometimes disagree respectfully, because that’s what actual sovereignty means.”

After the call ended, Sarah sat in her office, looking out at the Singapore skyline. Had she handled it right? Was there a better way to thread the needle between principle and partnership?

Her phone buzzed with a message from Ahmad: “Minister pleased with how Washington call went. Now draft something for ASEAN meeting next week. We’re not done yet.”

She smiled slightly. Of course they weren’t done. Diplomacy never was.

Part Four: The ASEAN Meeting

The ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Retreat in Bali three weeks later was officially about economic integration and pandemic recovery. Unofficially, everyone knew the Venezuela issue would come up.

Minister Balakrishnan worked the room during the coffee break, testing positions. The Philippine Foreign Secretary was uncomfortable – Manila’s relationship with Washington was too close to criticize. The Thai representative was noncommittal. But Indonesia’s Foreign Minister, Retno Marsudi, pulled him aside.

“Vivian, we’ve been thinking about what you said in your statement. About sovereignty and international law.”

“And?”

“Indonesia faces similar concerns. The precedent worries us. If major powers can act unilaterally in international waters based on their own security assessments, where does it end?”

“Exactly our concern,” Balakrishnan said. “Would Indonesia support a collective ASEAN statement?”

“Possibly. But it needs to be balanced. We don’t want to antagonize Washington unnecessarily.”

“Agreed. What if we frame it as ASEAN reaffirming its commitment to the principles in our Charter? Sovereignty, non-interference, peaceful settlement of disputes. We don’t name anyone, but the principles are clear.”

Retno considered. “That could work. Malaysia would probably support it. Singapore and Indonesia together can usually build enough consensus.”

By the end of the retreat, ASEAN had agreed to issue a Chairman’s Statement emphasizing the organization’s commitment to international law, sovereignty, and multilateral approaches to transnational challenges. It was careful, diplomatic language, but the message was clear: Southeast Asian nations stood together in defending the principles that protected smaller states.

Sarah, watching from the back of the room as the statement was read, felt something shift. Singapore hadn’t solved the Venezuela crisis. The US operations continued. But Singapore had maintained its principles, preserved its relationships, and demonstrated leadership in bringing others along.

Small victories, perhaps. But for small nations, those were the only kind available.

Part Five: The Long Game

Six months later, Sarah found herself at an international law conference in Geneva. A group of delegates from small states – Caribbean nations, Pacific island states, Baltic countries – approached her during a reception.

“Ambassador Tan,” said the delegate from Barbados, “we wanted to thank Singapore for its statement on the Caribbean operations. It mattered to us that someone spoke up for sovereignty principles.”

“It’s in all our interests,” Sarah replied. “Small states have to defend the rules-based order. It’s what protects us.”

“But you did it without destroying your relationship with Washington,” noted the Estonian representative. “That’s the difficult part. Many of us face pressure to choose between principles and partnerships with major powers.”

“It’s not easy,” Sarah admitted. “And it requires constantly explaining yourself, constantly reaffirming both your principles and your friendships. But I think major powers ultimately respect partners who have principles, even when they disagree in specific instances.”

Later, she received a message from Mark Peterson: “Coffee if you’re in DC next month? Despite our disagreement, State Department appreciates Singapore’s approach. Shows you can be a critical friend.”

Sarah smiled at the phrase. Critical friend. That captured it perfectly.

That evening, she called Ahmad back in Singapore. “You know, I’ve been thinking about something the Minister said months ago. About how principle and partnership reinforce each other.”

“And?”

“He was right. The Americans actually respect us more for having stood by our principles. They know we’re not just client states. They know when we do support them, it’s because we genuinely agree, not because we’re afraid to disagree.”

“That’s the theory,” Ahmad said. “Though I wouldn’t want to test it too often.”

“No,” Sarah agreed. “But isn’t that what foreign policy is? Finding the balance between what you believe and what you can afford to say? Between who you are and who you need to be?”

“That’s what Singapore’s foreign policy is,” Ahmad corrected. “Small state diplomacy. We can’t afford the luxury of pure principle or pure pragmatism. We have to be sophisticated enough to pursue both.”

Sarah looked out her hotel window at the Geneva evening. Somewhere in that city, diplomats were negotiating treaties, drafting resolutions, building the architecture of international cooperation. Small steps, incremental progress, the patient work of maintaining a rules-based order.

“You know what’s interesting?” she said. “Big countries think foreign policy is about power – military strength, economic leverage, the ability to impose your will. But small countries know the truth: foreign policy is about credibility, relationships, principles, and the patience to play the long game.”

“Singapore’s been playing the long game since 1965,” Ahmad noted. “We’re pretty good at it by now.”

“We have to be,” Sarah said. “It’s the only game we have.”

Epilogue: The Lesson

Three years later, when a crisis erupted in Southeast Asian waters – a major power claiming security rights in disputed maritime zones – Singapore’s voice carried weight in international forums. Not because Singapore had military power, but because Singapore had credibility.

They had defended international law when it was difficult. They had maintained partnerships while speaking uncomfortable truths. They had shown that principle and pragmatism could coexist.

The US, remembering Singapore’s respectful but firm disagreement on Venezuela, listened when Singapore explained Southeast Asian concerns. Other ASEAN states, remembering Singapore’s leadership in crafting collective positions, followed its diplomatic lead. And the international community, remembering Singapore’s consistent defense of sovereignty principles, supported its positions.

In the end, the crisis was resolved through negotiation rather than confrontation, through international law rather than military force. Singapore hadn’t solved it alone – small states never do. But Singapore had helped create the conditions where dialogue was possible, where principles mattered, where the rules-based order held.

In her office in Singapore, now Permanent Secretary herself, Sarah Tan kept a small reminder on her desk: a quote from Lee Kuan Yew about how small states survive by being “too important to ignore, too difficult to bully, and too useful to antagonize.”

The Venezuela statement, she realized, had been all three. Important enough to matter, difficult enough to show independence, useful enough to demonstrate that principled partners were more valuable than compliant clients.

That was the art of small state diplomacy. That was Singapore’s contribution to a world where power would always be unequally distributed, but where principle, properly defended, could level the playing field.

She smiled slightly, thinking of the next generation of diplomats learning these lessons. They would face their own crises, their own impossible balances between principle and partnership. But they would have this example to learn from: that Singapore had faced such a moment, had chosen neither silence nor confrontation, and had demonstrated that sophisticated diplomacy could defend what mattered most.

The weight of small nations, she had learned, was not in their power but in their principles. And sometimes, when defended with skill and wisdom, that weight was enough to shift the balance.

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“The small state is always on the moral high ground. It is only a question of whether the moral high ground is defended so effectively that others respect you for it.” — Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs, internal training document

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