Thailand-Cambodia Border Conflict - Maxthon

Case Study

Conflict Overview

The Thailand-Cambodia border conflict represents one of the most significant security challenges facing ASEAN in recent years. What began as longstanding border tensions erupted into active military conflict in July 2025, temporarily subsided through international mediation, only to reignite with devastating consequences in December 2025.

Timeline of Events

July 2025: Border tensions flare into armed conflict; ceasefire reached after five days
October 2025: Peace deal signed during ASEAN Summit with US President Trump in attendance
November 11, 2025: Thailand suspends peace deal, accusing Cambodia of laying fresh landmines
December 8, 2025: Hostilities resume following exchange of gunfire that escalated to air strikes
December 22, 2025: Special ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting convened in Kuala Lumpur
December 24, 2025: Scheduled General Border Committee (GBC) talks for ceasefire negotiations

Root Causes

The conflict stems from multiple interconnected factors:

Historical Territorial Disputes: Decades-old disagreements over border demarcation, particularly in areas rich in natural resources or strategic importance. These disputes trace back to colonial-era boundaries that were never fully resolved.

Landmine Allegations: Thailand’s accusation that Cambodia laid fresh landmines along disputed borders has become a flashpoint. Cambodia denies these claims, but the issue has severely eroded trust between the nations.

Nationalist Rhetoric: Both governments have adopted increasingly bellicose tones, appealing to domestic audiences. Thai PM Anutin Charnvirakul’s defiant stance (“who is respecting Thailand?”) and insistence on establishing sovereignty reflects this trend.

Rushed Diplomacy: Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow candidly noted that the October peace deal was rushed to accommodate President Trump’s timeline, suggesting insufficient groundwork for lasting peace.

Human Cost

The conflict’s toll has been severe:

40+ fatalities since December 8
900,000+ civilians displaced from both sides
Continued reports of F-16 air strikes and artillery shelling
Soldiers losing limbs to landmines
Communities in border areas experiencing repeated displacement

Competing Mediation Efforts

The conflict has become a stage for great power competition:

United States: Initially took the lead with Trump’s October peace deal, but faced criticism for prioritizing speed over substance. The premature declaration of ceasefires and mischaracterization of landmines as “roadside bombs” raised questions about understanding of the situation.

China: Adopted a more measured approach, positioning itself as a steady, reliable partner. Special Envoy Deng Xijun’s shuttle diplomacy and emphasis on “peaceful dialogue as the only viable path” contrasts with the US’s results-focused style.

ASEAN: Malaysia, as current chair, convened emergency meetings and facilitated dialogue through existing bilateral mechanisms like the GBC. This represents ASEAN’s attempt to manage regional security without external interference.

Outlook

Short-Term Prospects (1-6 months)

The outlook remains cautious despite the scheduled December 24 talks:

Fragile Ceasefire Potential: Even if a ceasefire is agreed upon, implementation faces significant challenges given the deep mistrust and previous failures. Thai officials’ emphasis on needing “a ceasefire that really holds” acknowledges past shortcomings.

Domestic Political Pressures: Both Prime Ministers face domestic audiences that have been primed with nationalist messaging. Backing down could be perceived as weakness, creating political costs for peacemaking.

Verification Challenges: Disagreements over landmines and border violations require robust verification mechanisms that may be difficult to establish quickly.

Risk of Escalation: Any incident during or after the talks could rapidly escalate given the current atmosphere and military deployments along the border.

Medium-Term Prospects (6-18 months)

Several factors will shape the conflict’s trajectory:

Great Power Dynamics: The US-China competition for influence in Southeast Asia will continue to complicate mediation efforts. Each power may prioritize demonstrating effectiveness over achieving sustainable peace.

ASEAN Credibility: The regional bloc’s ability to manage this conflict will test its relevance and effectiveness. Failure could accelerate calls for external security guarantors.

Economic Pressures: Continued conflict disrupts regional trade corridors, particularly affecting border commerce and tourism. Economic incentives for peace may grow stronger over time.

Humanitarian Crisis: The displacement of 900,000+ people creates ongoing needs for humanitarian assistance and eventual resettlement or return. This could become a rallying point for peace.

Long-Term Prospects (18+ months)

Fundamental issues require addressing for lasting peace:

Border Demarcation: Without final resolution of territorial disputes, conflicts will remain latent. This requires patient, technical negotiation backed by political will.

Regional Security Architecture: The conflict exposes weaknesses in ASEAN’s conflict resolution mechanisms and may accelerate discussions about security cooperation frameworks.

Leadership Changes: Future elections in both countries could bring leaders less invested in current positions, creating opportunities for fresh approaches.

Solutions

Immediate Ceasefire Implementation

Detailed Verification Protocol: Establish clear, mutually agreed-upon mechanisms for monitoring ceasefire compliance, including:

Third-party observers from neutral ASEAN members
Technology-based monitoring (drones, sensors) in disputed areas
Hotlines for rapid communication between military commanders
Clear definitions of ceasefire violations and response procedures

Graduated De-escalation: Rather than expecting immediate full withdrawal, implement phased pullbacks:

Initial freeze on all offensive operations
Creation of temporary buffer zones
Staged withdrawal of heavy weapons
Return to pre-December positions before addressing deeper issues

Humanitarian Corridors: Prioritize civilian welfare by:

Establishing safe zones for displaced populations
Guaranteeing humanitarian access
Creating joint committees to coordinate refugee return
Providing immediate medical and food assistance

Addressing Root Causes

Border Demarcation Commission: Establish a technical committee with:

Expert cartographers and legal specialists
ASEAN facilitation and observation
Clear timeline for producing recommendations
Interim arrangements for disputed areas pending final resolution

Confidence-Building Measures: Implement practical steps to rebuild trust:

Regular meetings between border patrol commanders
Joint border market initiatives in peaceful areas
Cultural and educational exchanges between border communities
Shared environmental and disaster response projects

Landmine Resolution: Address the contentious issue through:

International mine-clearing experts to assess allegations
Joint demining operations in agreed areas
Transparent reporting on mine locations and clearing progress
Moratorium on any new mine laying by both parties

Mediation Framework Reform

ASEAN-Led Process: Strengthen regional ownership by:

Designating Malaysia (or another ASEAN member) as official mediator
Creating a Friends of Thailand-Cambodia group within ASEAN
Regular ministerial-level check-ins beyond crisis moments
Secretariat support for sustained engagement

Coordinated External Support: Rather than competing mediators:

US and China participate as co-guarantors within ASEAN framework
Clear division of roles (ASEAN leads diplomacy, external powers provide resources)
Joint statements from all parties supporting ASEAN leadership
Regular trilateral coordination meetings

Structured Dialogue Process: Learn from peace process best practices:

Separate tracks for political, technical, and humanitarian issues
Professional facilitation and mediation expertise
Clear agenda and milestones
Regular public updates to manage domestic expectations

Extended Solutions

Regional Security Architecture

ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Mechanism Enhancement: Transform existing cooperation into conflict prevention tool:

Establish rapid response mediation team for border disputes
Create binding arbitration process for territorial disagreements
Regular joint exercises focused on peacekeeping and de-escalation
Shared intelligence on transnational security threats affecting borders

Southeast Asian Peace and Security Council: Consider creating new institutional capacity:

Permanent secretariat for conflict mediation and monitoring
Pool of trained mediators and technical experts
Conflict early warning systems
Regular scenario planning and crisis simulation

Code of Conduct for Border Management: Develop regional norms:

Standards for border patrol behavior
Protocols for handling border incidents
Requirements for transparency in border infrastructure development
Mechanisms for consultation before significant changes

Economic Integration as Peace Incentive

Special Economic Zones: Create shared prosperity in border areas:

Joint development zones in previously disputed areas
Shared customs and immigration facilities
Infrastructure projects (roads, ports) requiring cooperation
Revenue sharing arrangements providing ongoing incentive for peace

Regional Connectivity Projects: Link peace to development:

Prioritize transport corridors through Thailand-Cambodia border areas
Include both countries in Mekong region development initiatives
Create interdependencies that make conflict costlier
Engage business communities as peace constituencies

Trade Corridor Protection: Formalize economic relationships:

Guarantee passage of goods regardless of political tensions
Joint border crossing improvements
Harmonized customs procedures
Business councils to advocate for peaceful relations

Addressing Nationalism and Public Opinion

Track Two Diplomacy: Complement official talks with civil society engagement:

Academic and expert exchanges on border history and solutions
Joint civil society initiatives on reconciliation
Media exchanges to improve mutual understanding
Youth programs to build future constituency for peace

Narrative Reframing: Help leaders pivot from nationalist rhetoric:

Emphasize shared ASEAN identity and regional interests
Highlight economic costs of conflict to domestic populations
Frame cooperation as strength rather than capitulation
Create face-saving mechanisms for policy changes

Transparency and Public Engagement: Build domestic support for peace:

Regular public briefings on negotiation progress
Civil society input into peace process
Address historical grievances through truth-seeking mechanisms
Celebrate examples of successful Thai-Cambodian cooperation

International Support Framework

Sustained Donor Commitment: Ensure resources for peace implementation:

Multi-year funding for humanitarian response and reconstruction
Support for demining operations
Technical assistance for border demarcation
Capacity building for conflict resolution institutions

Lessons from Other Conflicts: Apply proven approaches:

Study successful border dispute resolutions (Peru-Ecuador, Eritrea-Ethiopia)
Engage experienced mediators from past Southeast Asian conflicts
Utilize international legal frameworks (ICJ precedents)
Learn from failures of rushed peace deals elsewhere

Monitoring and Evaluation: Ensure accountability:

Independent monitoring of ceasefire compliance
Regular assessment of peace process progress
Benchmarks for measuring success
Mechanisms for adjusting approach based on experience

Singapore Impact

Direct Economic Consequences

Trade Route Disruption: Singapore’s position as a regional logistics hub faces challenges:

Overland routes through Thailand-Cambodia affected by conflict
Increased costs for goods transiting the region
Delays in supply chains connecting ASEAN markets
Potential need for alternative routing increasing transportation costs

Investment Climate: Regional instability affects Singapore’s role as investment gateway:

Increased risk perception for Southeast Asian investments
Potential capital flight from affected countries to Singapore (short-term benefit)
Long-term concern about regional stability affecting all ASEAN markets
Need to reassure multinational corporations about regional prospects

RSAF Operations: Singapore’s air force trains in Thailand:

Potential impact on training arrangements if conflict escalates
Need for contingency planning for alternative training locations
Concerns about being drawn into conflict through military presence
Diplomatic sensitivities in maintaining defense relationship

ASEAN Leadership Role

Chairing ASEAN 2026: Singapore is scheduled to chair ASEAN, making this conflict significant:

Inheriting an unresolved conflict that tests ASEAN centrality
Need to demonstrate effective regional leadership and mediation
Pressure to show ASEAN can manage security challenges independently
Opportunity to strengthen regional institutions and norms

Diplomatic Heavy Lifting: Singapore must balance competing interests:

Maintaining good relations with both Thailand and Cambodia
Managing US and Chinese involvement without favoring either
Protecting ASEAN’s role against external interference
Building consensus among diverse member states

Credibility Stakes: The conflict becomes test of ASEAN Way:

Questions about non-interference principle during active conflict
Need to show relevance amid great power competition
Balancing sovereignty concerns with collective security needs
Proving regional solutions work better than external mediation

Strategic and Security Implications

ASEAN Cohesion: Conflict threatens regional unity:

Different member states may favor different approaches
Risk of external powers exploiting divisions
Challenge to ASEAN centrality in regional security
Need for Singapore to forge consensus and unified response

Precedent Setting: How this conflict resolves matters for future disputes:

If external powers dominate resolution, sets pattern for future conflicts
If ASEAN succeeds, strengthens regional autonomy
Treatment of sovereignty vs. intervention questions affects all members
Implications for South China Sea and other territorial disputes

Defense Posture: Regional conflict affects Singapore’s security planning:

Reassessment of regional threat environment
Potential need for enhanced defense preparedness
Questions about collective security arrangements
Balancing defense spending with other priorities

Humanitarian and Social Dimensions

Refugee Considerations: While Singapore unlikely to see direct refugee flows:

Potential role in coordinating regional humanitarian response
Financial contributions to displaced persons assistance
Technical expertise in refugee management and resettlement
Soft power opportunity through humanitarian leadership

ASEAN Community Building: Conflict undermines integration goals:

Questions about people-to-people connectivity amid conflict
Impact on ASEAN identity and sense of community
Need to maintain focus on socio-cultural pillar despite security crisis
Long-term implications for regional integration vision

Public Opinion: Singaporeans’ regional outlook affected:

Concerns about regional stability and safety
Impact on travel and business plans
Questions about ASEAN’s effectiveness and relevance
Need for government communication about Singapore’s role and safety

Opportunities for Singapore

Mediation and Facilitation: Singapore’s diplomatic strengths can contribute:

Offer neutral venue for technical discussions
Provide expertise in conflict resolution and negotiation
Share experience from own border agreements with Malaysia
Build reputation as honest broker in regional disputes

Institution Building: Use crisis to strengthen regional architecture:

Propose enhanced ASEAN conflict prevention mechanisms
Champion reforms to make ASEAN more effective
Create new frameworks for border dispute resolution
Position Singapore as architect of regional security systems

Economic Bridge-Building: Leverage economic ties for peace:

Facilitate business-to-business dialogue between countries
Promote economic projects requiring Thai-Cambodian cooperation
Use development finance to incentivize cooperation
Create trilateral economic initiatives as confidence builders

Singapore’s Strategic Imperatives

Maintain Neutrality: Critical for continued effectiveness:

Avoid being perceived as favoring either side
Balance support for Thailand (defense ties) with Cambodia relations
Present purely ASEAN rather than national position
Resist pressure to align with external powers’ preferences

Strengthen ASEAN Mechanisms: Long-term institutional interest:

Use crisis to justify institutional reforms
Build support for stronger conflict resolution capacity
Create precedents for future ASEAN crisis response
Demonstrate value of regional solutions over external intervention

Manage Great Powers: Navigate US-China competition carefully:

Welcome both powers’ support within ASEAN framework
Resist attempts to sideline regional leadership
Coordinate with both powers while maintaining ASEAN primacy
Use competition to extract resources and support for peace process

Protect Regional Stability: Fundamental national interest:

Prevent conflict escalation that could spread
Maintain ASEAN as peaceful, predictable region
Protect economic integration and connectivity
Ensure Southeast Asia remains attractive for investment and growth

Conclusion

The Thailand-Cambodia border conflict represents a critical juncture for ASEAN and regional security. While the immediate focus must be on achieving and maintaining a ceasefire, sustainable peace requires addressing root causes through patient diplomacy, institutional strengthening, and economic integration. For Singapore, the conflict presents both challenges and opportunities as it prepares to chair ASEAN, testing the nation’s diplomatic skills and the region’s institutional capacity. Success in mediating this conflict could strengthen ASEAN’s relevance and autonomy, while failure might accelerate dependence on external security guarantors and undermine decades of regional integration efforts.