Case Study: Mogadishu Municipal Elections 2025
Background and Historical Context
Somalia’s journey toward democratic governance has been marked by decades of conflict and institutional fragility. The nation last conducted direct elections in 1969, shortly before General Mohamed Siad Barre seized power through a military coup. Following Barre’s overthrow in 1991, the country descended into civil war, fragmenting into competing clan-based factions and giving rise to militant groups like al-Shabaab.
Since 2004, Somalia has operated under an indirect electoral system designed to balance competing clan interests. Under this framework, clan representatives select members of parliament, who subsequently elect the president. Local leaders, including Mogadishu’s mayor, have been appointed rather than elected. While intended to promote stability during an active insurgency, critics argue this system has enabled corruption and limited genuine democratic accountability.
The Current Electoral Initiative
The December 2025 Mogadishu municipal elections represent Somalia’s most ambitious attempt at democratic restoration in over 50 years. With 1,605 candidates competing for 390 district council seats, this vote serves as a pilot program for nationwide direct elections. The initiative builds on a 2024 law restoring universal suffrage, with federal elections planned for 2026.
However, political compromise has shaped the transition’s scope. An August agreement between President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and opposition leaders stipulates that while parliamentary elections will be direct, the presidency will remain subject to parliamentary selection. This hybrid approach reflects ongoing tensions between reform advocates and those concerned about premature systemic changes.
Key Challenges and Obstacles
Security Concerns: Al-Shabaab militants control substantial rural territory and regularly conduct attacks in major urban centers, including Mogadishu. The feasibility of conducting secure, accessible voting across a nation where large areas remain under insurgent influence poses fundamental logistical and safety challenges.
Political Resistance: Opposition parties contend that the accelerated electoral timeline disproportionately benefits the incumbent president, potentially undermining the fairness of the process. Deep-seated distrust among political factions complicates consensus-building efforts.
Institutional Capacity: Establishing functional electoral infrastructure, including voter registration systems, polling stations, and result tabulation mechanisms, requires significant technical expertise and resources in a country with limited institutional capacity.
Clan Dynamics: The transition from clan-based representation to individual voting threatens established power structures. Traditional clan elders who previously wielded significant influence may resist reforms that diminish their political role.
Corruption Legacy: The indirect system has allegedly created opportunities for vote-buying and manipulation. Building public trust in a new system requires demonstrating transparency and integrity throughout the electoral process.
Outlook: Scenarios and Projections
Short-Term (2025-2026)
Optimistic Scenario: The Mogadishu elections proceed peacefully with strong turnout, demonstrating public appetite for democratic participation. Technical systems function effectively, results are accepted by all parties, and momentum builds for national elections in 2026.
Moderate Scenario: Elections occur with some security incidents and logistical challenges but are generally viewed as legitimate. Turnout is mixed, reflecting both enthusiasm and lingering concerns about safety and political manipulation.
Pessimistic Scenario: Significant violence disrupts voting, technical failures undermine credibility, or disputed results trigger political crisis. The failure damages confidence in democratic reforms and strengthens arguments for maintaining indirect systems.
Medium-Term (2026-2030)
If Mogadishu’s elections succeed, the 2026 parliamentary elections will test whether direct voting can function at national scale. Key variables include whether al-Shabaab’s influence can be contained in contested regions, whether electoral institutions can manage complex nationwide logistics, and whether political actors accept unfavorable results peacefully.
The hybrid system preserving indirect presidential selection may prove a temporary compromise or become entrenched, depending on whether it stabilizes governance or creates confusion about democratic legitimacy.
Long-Term (Beyond 2030)
Somalia’s democratic trajectory will depend on sustained security improvements, economic development that reduces grievances fueling insurgency, and gradual strengthening of state institutions. Regional dynamics, including relationships with neighboring Kenya and Ethiopia, will influence stability. International support, particularly from the African Union and United Nations, remains critical for both security and technical assistance.
Solutions and Recommendations
Security Enhancement
Targeted Stabilization: Prioritize security improvements in areas designated for early elections, creating protected zones where voting can occur safely. Coordinate with African Union Mission forces and Somali National Army units to establish secure perimeters around polling locations.
Community Engagement: Partner with local clan leaders and community organizations to build grassroots security networks. Despite tensions over political reform, traditional leaders maintain influence that can be leveraged to protect electoral processes.
Adaptive Electoral Design: Develop contingency plans for regions where security conditions deteriorate, including postponement mechanisms that don’t invalidate the entire electoral process.
Institutional Development
Technical Infrastructure: Invest in robust biometric voter registration systems to prevent fraud and duplicate voting. The April 2025 voter registration in Mogadishu demonstrates progress, but systems must scale nationally.
Capacity Building: Provide comprehensive training for electoral commission staff, poll workers, and observers. Partner with international organizations experienced in post-conflict elections to transfer expertise.
Transparency Mechanisms: Establish independent observation frameworks involving domestic and international monitors. Publish detailed electoral data and create accessible complaint resolution procedures.
Political Reconciliation
Inclusive Dialogue: Facilitate ongoing negotiations among political factions to address concerns about electoral timing, procedures, and dispute resolution. The August 2025 compromise demonstrates that negotiated solutions are possible, but deeper consensus-building remains necessary.
Power-Sharing Frameworks: Consider constitutional provisions that guarantee representation for minority clans and regions, addressing fears that majoritarian direct elections could marginalize certain groups.
Anti-Corruption Measures: Implement strict campaign finance regulations and enforcement mechanisms to prevent the corruption that plagued the indirect system from infecting direct elections.
Public Engagement
Civic Education: Launch comprehensive voter education campaigns explaining democratic processes, individual rights, and the importance of participation. Target rural areas and communities with limited formal education.
Media Strategy: Utilize radio, mobile technology, and community gatherings to reach populations across the country. Counter disinformation and build realistic expectations about what elections can achieve.
Women’s Participation: Address cultural barriers limiting women’s political engagement through targeted outreach and education, building on progress demonstrated by female voter registration efforts.
International Support
Sustained Commitment: Secure long-term funding and technical assistance from international partners, recognizing that democratic consolidation requires decade-long investment, not just election-cycle support.
Regional Coordination: Work with regional organizations like the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) to ensure neighboring countries support Somalia’s transition rather than pursuing destabilizing proxy agendas.
Impact Assessment
Political Impacts
Positive Outcomes: Successful direct elections would fundamentally transform Somali governance, establishing accountability between leaders and citizens rather than clan intermediaries. This could reduce corruption by making officials answerable to broader constituencies and create pathways for new political leadership outside traditional clan hierarchies.
Risks: Poorly executed elections could deepen political fragmentation, trigger violence, or discredit democratic governance entirely. The hybrid system maintaining indirect presidential selection may create constitutional confusion and legitimacy challenges.
Social Impacts
Empowerment: Direct voting empowers ordinary Somalis, particularly women and youth, who have been marginalized under clan-based systems. The participation of women in voter registration represents significant social progress in a conservative society.
Identity Shifts: The transition from clan-based to individual voting may gradually reshape Somali political identity, though clan loyalties will remain influential for generations. This could either promote national unity or exacerbate tensions between traditional and modern political structures.
Expectations Management: Elections may raise unrealistic expectations for rapid improvement in services and security. Disappointment could fuel disillusionment with democratic processes if governance quality doesn’t improve.
Security Impacts
Counterinsurgency: Successful elections could undermine al-Shabaab’s narrative that the Somali government lacks legitimacy. Demonstrating functional democratic governance may weaken insurgent recruitment and popular support.
Vulnerability: Electoral processes create targets for militant attacks designed to demonstrate government weakness and discourage participation. Al-Shabaab has historically attacked voters and polling stations.
Long-Term Stability: If sustained over multiple electoral cycles, democratic governance could address grievances fueling conflict and create legitimate mechanisms for political competition, gradually reducing violence.
Economic Impacts
Investment Climate: Successful democratic transitions typically improve investor confidence and international economic engagement. Somalia’s ability to attract development assistance and private investment depends partly on demonstrating stable, legitimate governance.
Service Delivery: Elected local officials may prove more responsive to constituent needs than appointed administrators, potentially improving municipal services in Mogadishu and other cities.
Opportunity Costs: Electoral processes consume significant resources that could otherwise fund development projects. The investment only yields returns if elections produce meaningful governance improvements.
Regional and International Impacts
Precedent: Somalia’s experience will influence democratic transitions in other fragile states emerging from conflict. Success could provide valuable lessons for contexts like South Sudan, Libya, or Yemen.
Geopolitical Positioning: Democratic legitimacy could strengthen Somalia’s bargaining position with regional powers and international partners, potentially increasing foreign assistance and diplomatic support.
Refugee Returns: Gradual stabilization and improved governance could eventually enable the return of Somali refugees and displaced persons from Kenya, Ethiopia, and beyond, though this remains a long-term prospect.
Conclusion
Somalia’s municipal elections in Mogadishu represent a pivotal test of whether direct democracy can function in one of the world’s most challenging political environments. Success requires not just peaceful voting on election day, but sustained commitment to security improvements, institutional development, political reconciliation, and public engagement over the coming years.
The transition faces formidable obstacles, from militant violence to institutional weakness to entrenched interests threatened by reform. Yet the determination of ordinary Somalis registering to vote and the willingness of political actors to negotiate compromise suggest genuine momentum toward democratic renewal.
The international community’s role is to provide patient, long-term support while allowing Somalis to determine their own political future. Quick fixes and imposed solutions have repeatedly failed in Somalia; sustainable progress requires building from the ground up, beginning with municipal elections that put governance decisions directly in citizens’ hands.
Whether this initiative succeeds in restoring universal suffrage after more than half a century will profoundly shape not only Somalia’s future but also the broader question of whether democratic governance can take root in post-conflict environments facing active insurgencies. The world is watching Mogadishu.