North Korea Cruise Missile Drill

by | Dec 28, 2025 | Uncategorized | 0 comments

Case Study: December 2025 Cruise Missile Exercise

Background

On December 28, 2025, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un personally oversaw a long-range strategic cruise missile launching drill, marking another demonstration of the DPRK’s advancing military capabilities. The missiles successfully followed their programmed trajectories over waters west of the Korean Peninsula and struck intended targets.

The Drill

  • North Korean leader Kim Jong Un supervised a long-range strategic cruise missile launching exercise on Sunday, December 28, 2025
  • The missiles flew along their intended trajectory over waters west of the Korean Peninsula and successfully hit their targets
  • Kim expressed satisfaction with the drill’s results

Kim’s Statement Kim defended the exercises as necessary measures, stating that regular checks of North Korea’s nuclear deterrent components are “just a responsible exercise” given the security threats the country faces. He reaffirmed North Korea’s commitment to continuing development of its nuclear combat capabilities.

Context This drill comes as Kim was recently reported visiting major munitions facilities in late 2025, suggesting continued focus on military readiness and weapons development. The exercise demonstrates North Korea’s ongoing advancement of its strategic weapons systems despite international concerns.

The drill represents another display of North Korea’s expanding military capabilities, particularly in cruise missile technology that can potentially carry nuclear warheads.

Key Developments

  • Technological Advancement: The successful drill demonstrates North Korea’s continued progress in cruise missile technology, which differs from ballistic missiles by flying at lower altitudes and being harder to detect
  • Nuclear Capability Claims: Kim Jong Un’s reference to “nuclear combat force” suggests these cruise missiles may be designed as potential nuclear delivery systems
  • Strategic Timing: The drill follows Kim’s recent visits to munitions facilities in late 2025, indicating sustained military modernization efforts
  • Justification Narrative: North Korea framed the exercise as a defensive measure against unspecified “security threats”

Military Significance

Long-range strategic cruise missiles represent a particularly concerning development because they:

  • Can evade traditional missile defense systems more effectively than ballistic missiles
  • Provide more flexible strike options with greater accuracy
  • Can potentially carry nuclear warheads
  • Demonstrate technological sophistication in guidance and propulsion systems

Regional Outlook

Short-Term (6-12 Months)

  • Increased Testing Frequency: North Korea may conduct additional missile tests to demonstrate capabilities and signal resolve
  • Diplomatic Tensions: Relations between North Korea and the US/South Korea likely to remain strained, especially with political transitions
  • Military Posturing: Expect heightened military exercises by both North Korea and the US-South Korea alliance
  • Sanctions Persistence: International sanctions likely to continue with minimal prospect of relief

Medium-Term (1-3 Years)

  • Arms Race Dynamics: Regional powers may accelerate military modernization programs
  • Nuclear Arsenal Expansion: North Korea expected to continue expanding both warhead numbers and delivery systems
  • China-Russia Relations: Deepening cooperation between North Korea, China, and Russia may complicate diplomatic solutions
  • Technology Proliferation Risks: Potential for weapons technology sharing with other actors

Long-Term (3-5 Years)

  • Strategic Stability Concerns: The region may face a more complex and unpredictable security environment
  • Generational Leadership: Kim Jong Un’s long-term consolidation of power suggests continuity in military-first policies
  • Economic Pressures: Sustained international isolation may lead to either policy shifts or increased desperation
  • Diplomatic Openings: Potential windows for negotiation may emerge depending on geopolitical shifts

Potential Solutions and Response Strategies

Diplomatic Approaches

  1. Multilateral Engagement: Revitalize Six-Party Talks or similar frameworks involving China, Russia, US, South Korea, Japan, and North Korea
  2. Track II Diplomacy: Utilize unofficial channels and academic/civil society exchanges to maintain communication
  3. Incremental Agreements: Pursue step-by-step confidence-building measures rather than comprehensive deals
  4. Economic Incentives: Develop conditional relief packages tied to verifiable denuclearization steps

Security Measures

  1. Enhanced Missile Defense: Strengthen regional missile defense architectures including THAAD and Aegis systems
  2. Intelligence Sharing: Improve real-time intelligence cooperation among regional allies
  3. Extended Deterrence: Reinforce US security commitments to allies through credible extended nuclear deterrence
  4. Military Readiness: Maintain robust conventional military capabilities to deter aggression

Regional Cooperation

  1. ASEAN Engagement: Leverage ASEAN’s diplomatic channels to encourage North Korean moderation
  2. China’s Role: Encourage China to use economic leverage to influence North Korean behavior
  3. Humanitarian Cooperation: Maintain humanitarian assistance channels separate from political negotiations
  4. Crisis Communication: Establish hotlines and protocols to prevent miscalculation during crises

Non-Proliferation Efforts

  1. Export Controls: Strengthen international export control regimes to prevent technology transfers
  2. Sanctions Enforcement: Improve monitoring and enforcement of existing UN sanctions
  3. Financial Pressure: Target illicit financial networks supporting weapons programs
  4. Cyber Defense: Protect against North Korean cyber operations that fund weapons development

Impact on Singapore

Security Implications

Direct Military Threat: Low to Minimal

  • Singapore is not a primary target for North Korean weapons systems
  • Geographic distance provides some buffer from immediate regional conflicts
  • No direct territorial or political disputes with North Korea

Indirect Security Concerns: Moderate

  • Regional instability could affect Singapore’s security environment
  • Potential for refugee flows or humanitarian crises requiring response
  • Risk of maritime security disruptions in regional waters

Economic Impact

Trade and Commerce: Moderate Risk

  • Shipping Disruptions: Korean Peninsula tensions could affect vital shipping lanes through which 40% of Singapore’s trade passes
  • Supply Chain Vulnerability: Disruptions to South Korean manufacturing (semiconductors, electronics, petrochemicals) would impact Singapore’s economy
  • Energy Security: Potential oil price volatility from regional instability
  • Financial Markets: Singapore’s role as regional financial hub means exposure to market volatility during crises

Regional Economic Spillover: Significant

  • South Korea is Singapore’s 8th largest trading partner (2024 data)
  • Japanese and South Korean investments in Singapore could be affected
  • Regional economic confidence and growth prospects may deteriorate
  • Tourism and business travel could decline during periods of high tension

Diplomatic Considerations

ASEAN Leadership Role

  • Singapore must balance relationships with all major powers (US, China, South Korea, Japan)
  • Opportunity to facilitate dialogue through ASEAN Regional Forum
  • Challenge of maintaining ASEAN centrality amid great power competition
  • Need to uphold international law and UN Security Council resolutions

Bilateral Relations

  • Maintain constructive relations with South Korea as strategic partner
  • Navigate complex China-US dynamics as both are crucial partners
  • Support international non-proliferation norms while avoiding direct confrontation
  • Potential role as neutral venue for diplomatic discussions

Strategic Responses for Singapore

Policy Recommendations

  1. Defense Preparedness
    • Continue investment in comprehensive air defense systems
    • Maintain strong deterrence through advanced military capabilities
    • Strengthen cybersecurity infrastructure against potential attacks
    • Enhance intelligence gathering and analysis capabilities
  2. Economic Resilience
    • Diversify trade partners and supply chains to reduce regional concentration
    • Develop contingency plans for shipping route disruptions
    • Build strategic reserves of essential goods and energy
    • Strengthen financial sector resilience to regional shocks
  3. Diplomatic Engagement
    • Support multilateral frameworks for regional security dialogue
    • Offer Singapore as neutral ground for confidence-building discussions
    • Strengthen defense cooperation with regional partners
    • Maintain principled stance on international law and non-proliferation
  4. Civil Preparedness
    • Enhance civil defense and emergency response capabilities
    • Conduct regular civil contingency planning exercises
    • Maintain robust public communication systems for crisis situations
    • Develop humanitarian assistance capabilities for regional crises

Long-Term Strategic Positioning

Singapore should:

  • Remain Non-Aligned: Avoid taking sides in great power competition while maintaining strong partnerships
  • Promote Stability: Use diplomatic influence to encourage dialogue and de-escalation
  • Build Resilience: Strengthen national resilience across security, economic, and social domains
  • Uphold Rules: Champion rules-based international order and peaceful conflict resolution
  • Prepare Adaptively: Maintain flexibility to respond to rapidly changing regional dynamics

Conclusion

While North Korea’s cruise missile developments pose limited direct threat to Singapore, the broader implications for regional stability, economic connectivity, and great power relations create meaningful indirect risks. Singapore’s response should focus on maintaining robust defense capabilities, building economic resilience, exercising diplomatic leadership through ASEAN, and preparing comprehensively for potential regional contingencies.

The key for Singapore is to remain strategically nimble—strong enough to deter threats, connected enough to influence outcomes, and resilient enough to weather regional storms while maintaining its role as a stable, neutral hub in an increasingly complex geopolitical environment.