Case Study: Divergent Responses to the Ukraine Crisis

Background Context

Ian Storey’s research in “Putin’s Russia And Southeast Asia” reveals the complex and varied nature of Russia’s engagement with the region. Despite Russia’s global power status and Cold War legacy, its actual footprint in Southeast Asia remains relatively modest compared to other major powers like China and the United States.

Regional Response Patterns

The Sanctions Approach: Singapore Singapore took a clear stance by imposing sanctions on Russia following the Ukraine invasion. This marked a significant departure from Singapore’s typical non-interventionist foreign policy, reflecting the severity with which it viewed Russia’s actions as a violation of international law and sovereignty principles – issues of existential importance to a small city-state.

The Continuity Approach: Vietnam Vietnam continued its arms purchases from Russia despite the invasion, demonstrating the depth of historical defense ties dating back to the Cold War. For Vietnam, Russia remains a critical military supplier and counterbalance to Chinese influence in the South China Sea, making the relationship strategically indispensable regardless of European conflicts.

The Strategic Calculus These contrasting approaches illustrate how Southeast Asian nations weigh different factors:

• Historical relationships and dependencies
• Economic interests and trade ties
• Security concerns and defense needs
• Diplomatic positioning and international law principles
• Relationships with other major powers (US, China, EU)

Russia’s “Memory Diplomacy” Strategy

Russia has relied heavily on Cold War-era relationships to maintain influence in the region. This approach has limitations as newer generations of leaders emerge without personal ties to the Soviet period, and as economic realities take precedence over historical sentiment.

Outlook: Russia’s Future in Southeast Asia

Current Constraints

Economic Weakness The most significant barrier to expanded Russian influence is economic. Unlike China, which has become Southeast Asia’s largest trading partner, or the United States with its extensive investment networks, Russia offers limited economic opportunities. Trade volumes remain small, foreign direct investment is minimal, and technology transfer is largely confined to military equipment.

Competition from Major Powers Russia faces intense competition for influence from:

• China: Massive economic engagement, Belt and Road Initiative, and geographical proximity
• United States: Security partnerships, technological leadership, and market access
• European Union: Trade relationships and development assistance
• Japan and South Korea: Investment and technology partnerships

Geopolitical Isolation Western sanctions following the Ukraine invasion have further constrained Russia’s economic capacity and international standing, making it a less attractive partner for countries seeking to maintain good relations with the West.

Potential Growth Areas

Defense and Security Russia will likely maintain its niche as an arms supplier to countries seeking to diversify their defense partnerships, particularly Vietnam, Myanmar, and potentially Indonesia. Russian military equipment offers a non-Western alternative without the political conditions that may accompany US or European arms sales.

Energy Cooperation As an energy superpower, Russia could expand cooperation in oil, gas, and nuclear energy sectors, particularly with energy-hungry nations like Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines.

Strategic Balancing Some Southeast Asian nations may cultivate Russia ties as part of a hedging strategy to avoid over-dependence on any single power, particularly China. This “omni-directional” foreign policy approach is common in ASEAN.

Scenarios for the Next Decade

Limited Engagement Scenario (Most Likely) Russia maintains current levels of engagement, primarily through defense sales and diplomatic “memory diplomacy.” Economic ties remain minimal, and influence gradually wanes as Cold War-era leaders retire.

Modest Expansion Scenario If Russia can redirect some economic capacity toward Asia and resolve the Ukraine conflict, it might moderately increase trade and investment. However, structural economic weaknesses and competition from other powers would limit gains.

Renewed Partnership Scenario (Low Probability) A significant shift in the global order or major realignment in US-China competition could create opportunities for Russia to play a more substantial role, particularly if Southeast Asian nations seek additional counterbalancing options.

Singapore’s Impact and Strategic Positioning

Why Singapore’s Sanctions Mattered

Symbolic Significance Singapore’s decision to impose sanctions on Russia was notable precisely because it was unusual. As a small, trade-dependent nation that typically avoids taking sides in great power conflicts, Singapore’s stance signaled that certain red lines in international conduct – particularly territorial sovereignty – cannot be crossed without consequence.

Principled Stand For Singapore, the Ukraine invasion touched on core national interests. As a small state whose survival depends on international law and respect for sovereignty, Russia’s actions represented an existential threat to the rules-based order that protects small nations from larger neighbors.

Singapore’s Balancing Act

Managing Multiple Relationships Singapore must carefully balance its stance on Russia with other strategic relationships:

• Maintaining strong ties with the United States and European partners who welcomed its sanctions
• Preserving working relationships with ASEAN neighbors who took different approaches
• Managing economic ties (though limited with Russia)
• Upholding ASEAN unity despite divergent national positions

Long-term Implications Singapore’s approach has several consequences:

1. Enhanced Credibility: Demonstrated willingness to defend principles even at potential cost, strengthening Singapore’s moral authority in international forums
2. Western Alignment Signal: Reinforced Singapore’s positioning within the broader Western-oriented international order, potentially strengthening security and economic partnerships
3. Regional Leadership: Set an example for rules-based international conduct, though without pressuring other ASEAN members to follow suit
4. Limited Economic Cost: Given minimal Russia-Singapore trade (unlike Europe), the economic impact of sanctions was manageable

Singapore as a Regional Analytical Hub

ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s Role The fact that this comprehensive study of Russia-Southeast Asia relations was produced in Singapore reflects the city-state’s position as a regional intellectual hub. Research institutions like ISEAS play a crucial role in:

• Providing objective analysis of regional dynamics
• Facilitating dialogue between different perspectives
• Contributing to informed policy-making across Southeast Asia

Neutral Convening Power Despite its sanctions stance, Singapore maintains its role as a neutral venue for dialogue, including between Russia and other parties. This demonstrates how Singapore separates its principled positions from its functional role as a regional meeting point.

Key Takeaways

1. Diversity is ASEAN’s Reality: There is no unified Southeast Asian approach to Russia; national interests drive varied responses
2. Economics Trump History: Without substantial economic engagement, Russia’s influence based on Cold War nostalgia has natural limits
3. Principles Matter for Small States: Singapore’s sanctions decision reflects how vital sovereignty and territorial integrity are to small nations
4. Strategic Autonomy Prevails: Southeast Asian nations resist pressure to uniformly align with any major power, including in their Russia policies
5. The Future Requires Economic Muscle: For Russia to expand its Southeast Asian influence, it must offer compelling economic partnerships beyond arms sales

Conclusion

Russia’s relationship with Southeast Asia exists in a constrained space – significant enough to warrant serious study, but limited enough to rank behind China, the United States, and even Japan and the European Union in terms of comprehensive influence. Singapore’s principled stance on Ukraine demonstrates that even small states can take clear positions when core interests are at stake, while the region’s diversity of approaches to Russia illustrates the pragmatic, interest-driven foreign policies that characterize ASEAN member states. The outlook suggests continuity rather than transformation, with Russia maintaining a modest presence focused on defense cooperation while economic limitations prevent deeper engagement.